Tips for betting the CFL
By Reed Hogben
The general betting public usually leans to favorites, overs and home teams; therefore sportsbooks were probably happy campers after the 2007 CFL season.
Favorites and underdogs went a perfect 50 percent at 36-36 against the spread (ATS). Home favorites let bettors down at 25-28 ATS, while away Favorites made a little money at 11-8 ATS. Of those 36 covering underdogs on the year, 21 (58 percent) did so by winning the game straight up (SU). This is somewhat lower than the NFL norm of about 67 percent and should make you think twice about automatically betting the money line when you already like a dog.
There are some explanations for this phenomenon. First, is the difference in scoring - the CFL awarding single points on punts, kickoffs and missed field goals that are not returned out of the end zone. There also seems to be an increasing trend towards taking the field position safety which is when teams facing third down deep in their own territory purposely give up two points to move the ball out for a free kick, rather than punting. These extra one and two points help a dog get under the spread without winning straight up.
Second, there are more late game back door covers. With only three downs (harder to run for 10 yards) and the clock stopping after first downs (easier to prolong the game), the trailing team (often the underdog) can get two or even three possessions in the last few minutes.
The CFL is traditionally thought of as a higher scoring league than the NFL, which was the case last year with an average score of 49 points per game (including overtime). However, with many totals posted in the 50+ point range, the overall over/under record was 32-40.
Home teams were 42-28-2 straight up last year, but just 33-39 against the spread as the back door cover potential mentioned above somewhat minimizes the home field advantage.
Lastly, don't forget scheduling factors. The CFL plays an 18 game schedule to eliminate only two of its eight teams from the playoffs. There are eight less important inter-divisional games and 10 relatively more important divisional games. Much like college football, some of the divisional games are big rivalries and often there is a home-and-home.
After all is said and done, the regular season may not mean much. Last year in the playoff semi-finals, the No. 2 seeds won non-covering squeakers. In the finals, despite home field advantage and a bye, the No. 1 seeds both lost straight up. A non-covering Grey Cup win by Saskatchewan topped off a perfect 5-0 ATS for the playoff dogs and all five games went under the total.
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