2002 Buzz Word Sports records
SEASON NFL: 147-107, +83.35 UNITS!!
SEASON NBA: 174-136, +69.9 UNITS!!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: 131-111, +5.15 UNITS!!
SEASON MLB: 672-582, +151.85 UNITS!!
LA Lakers @ Minnesota 8:05 PM EST
Minnesota +2.5 over LA Lakers (4 Units)
Minnesota/LA Lakers Over 194.5 (2.5 Units)
Until the Lakers show us that they can win on the road (or are getting double-digits) on the road, we will continue to play against them, especially when they have been installed as a road favorite... The Lake Show has turned into little more than a mirage this year, especially on the road, where LA has compiled a miserable 2-10 record on the season... yes, Shaquille O'Neal is back, but since his return, LA has gone just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on the road, with the one win taking overtime against the Memphis Grizzlies... this is obviously not a team that has it all together yet, but the public perception of the Lakers with Shaq has given us steady value game after game, as oddsmakers push the line towards the Lakers, and intelligent bettors continue to profit by playing against them... so far, the Lakers are 3-8 ATS since Shaq's return, with the only positive returns coming at home...
The Lakers' failures have had everything to do with defense, as they are allowing an absurd 99 points per game on the road, including 106+ points in three of their last four road games... and considering that Minnesota has put up 110+ points in three of their last four games against the Lakers, that lack of defensive intensity should once again bite Phil Jackson's crew in the butt... In a very simple glance at the numbers, the Lakers are being outscored by nearly SEVEN points per game on the road this year (99.1 to 92.3) while the Wolves are outscoring teams at home this season (98.6 to 96.3)... so why exactly are the Lakers favored again? If it's because they crushed the Magic at home in their last game, LA beat both Dallas and Utah at home, and still ended up losing at Golden State in their next contest...
One thing we do not recommend is going against the T-Wolves as a home dog... in the second game of this season, Minnesota was installed as a slight home dog to Orlando, and ended up winning SU by six... in late November, the Kings were favored in Minnesota and came out of there victims of a 90-74 blindsiding... installed as a home dog against the Mavs and Lakers last year, Minnesota won both of those games straight up as well... the year before that, four more teams (Utah, Portland, Houston, San Antonio) befell the same fate in the regular season... all told, the Wolves are 11-1 SU/ATS as a home dog during the regular season, and with the Lakers still to prove they can win on the road, Minnesota has a terrific chance of adding to that mark...
The road team in this series has won just twice in the last ten matchups, as the Timberwolves won in LA just a few weeks ago to break a 5-0 SU home team run between the two, including two straight double-digit wins in Minnesota... and overall, the Wolves have not only won three of four against the Lakers, they have scored 110 points or more in each of those victories... Minnesota has only lost at home this season to teams that have been red hot (Portland) or are at the top of the standings in the Eastern Conference (New Jersey, Indiana, Boston)... the Lakers are neither, and as such, we will fade them as a road favorite and place our money on one of the best home dogs in the NBA... take Minnesota and the Over...
FINAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 106, LA LAKERS 97
New Jersey @ New York 7:35 PM EST
New York +5 over New Jersey (3 Units)
New York/New Jersey Over 190 (3 Units)
It's happening again...
Not that we will complain - in fact, far from it... but here we are in one of our favorite betting situations, as oddsmakers have once again installed the Nets as a road favorite, despite the fact that they almost never come through in this situation... New Jersey is now a miserable 8-30 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite, and when New Jersey is favored by six points or less on the road, they are a horrific 5-27 ATS in their last 32 games... we've now taken advantage of the oddsmakers installing the Nets as a road favorite against the Pistons, the Clippers, the Suns, the Bulls and the Bucks so far this year (all SU losses), and with the New York Knicks getting the points at home in this contest, we will once again play the heavy odds in our favor...
It's not as though New Jersey has proven much on the road this season anyway, as they have gone just 3-7 SU in their last ten road games (1-4 in their last five), and are being outscored on average when away from the friendly home confines... in fact, in seven games as a road favorite this season, New Jersey has lost straight up in all occasions save for a win and cover over the Miami Heat... in those contests, the Nets are allowing just under 99 points a game (as opposed to 87.8 ppg as a pick or dog on the road)... and now, they face a Knicks team that has scored 90+ points in each of their last four games... considering that New Jersey is 0-6 SU when allowing more than 86 points on the road, New York's newfound consistency could mean trouble...
With little fanfare, the New York Knicks have slowly turned into a pretty competitive team now that Latrell Sprewell is back in the lineup... in their last nine games, the Knicks have gone a solid 5-4 straight up, losing twice by three points or less, with the other two losses to a Celtics team that just seems to have their number... take away those Boston games, and the Knicks have actually now gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, with their sole loss coming by a mere half a point...
The fact that the Nets have won six straight games against the Knicks gives us some pause in this contest, but all of their wins in New York have come when they were an underdog, not in a situation where they were expected to win... and while the Nets are in a situation where they normally fail (as a road fav), the Knicks are in a situation that has brought them the most success this season, as the Knicks are a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS when playing on two days' rest... and in all four games, the Knicks just happened to be an underdog...
Nonetheless, we will temper our play on the Knicks with a play on the Over as well, as the Nets have scored 95+ points in their last seven games against the Knicks and an average of 104.6 ppg in those contests... additionally, the Over has cashed in the last four games between these teams... in the worst case, we garner a split of the Knicks and the Over, but we believe we have a great chance of nailing both sides, as the Knicks cover this spread in a high-scoring game...
FINAL PREDICTION: NEW YORK 103, NEW JERSEY 99
Washington @ Atlanta 7:35 PM EST
Washington +4 over Atlanta (2 Units)
Indiana @ Dallas 8:05 PM EST
Dallas -8 over Indiana (2 Units)
New Orleans @ Portland 10:05 PM EST
New Orleans +4.5 over Portland (1.5 Units)
Phoenix @ Sacramento 10:05 PM EST
Phoenix +12.5 over Sacramento (1 Unit)
another solid night...