Portland @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Portland -1 over Seattle (3 Units)
Portland/Seattle Under 182.5 (2 Units)
The road team has been king whenever the Blazers and Sonics have collided, winning six straight contests ATS, including each of Portland's last three trips to Seattle, which the Blazers won straight up by holding Seattle to between 84 and 86 points on each occasion... overall, the Blazers have now won six of their last seven games against the Sonics straight up, and with these teams seemingly heading in different directions defensively over the last several games, we see yet another Blazers victory in the cards...
While Portland has been tightening up their defense as of late (going from 98 points allowed to 88 to just 80 in their last contest), the Sonics have gone from allowing 83 points three games ago to allowing 94 points and then a whopping 108 points against the 76ers in what was their second straight loss after a five-game winning streak... five of Portland's last seven opponents have failed to reach 90 points, while the Blazers have scored at least 92 points in five of their last six games overall...
Perhaps most impressive about the Blazers as of late has been their performance against losing teams, as Portland is a whopping 14-0 straight up in their last fourteen games against sub-.500 competition... on the year, Portland is now 12-2 SU on the road against losing teams, and with this line less than a bucket, we like their chances of covering this spred against a Sonics team that may be coming back to earth as teams learn to deal with Ray Allen... with a 4-1 ATS mark as a road favorite in their last five games, and a 4-0 SU/ATS mark when the line is two points or less either way, the Blazers look well-prepared to once again instill some discipline upon the Sonics...
Seattle is just 2-7 ATS at home after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with both of those victories coming when favored and when the Sonics scored 100 points or more... considering that Seattle has failed to surpass the 99 point plateau in their last nine games against Portland, and are averaging just 88.2 ppg in their last nine games against the Blazers, we just don't see 100 points even being a conceivable option... and considering that Seattle is just 3-11 SU after two consecutive losses when they fail to score 100 points or more, we have even more fuel for the fire... take the Blazers, as they once again come into Seattle and knock off the Sonics in a low-scoring contest...
FINAL PREDICTION: PORTLAND 91, SEATTLE 85
Memphis @ New York 7:35 PM EST
Memphis +4.5 over New York (2.5 Units)
The All-Star break has done wonders for several teams, and the Memphis Grizzlies are one of those teams that look like a brand new squad since the break... with an 8-6 SU and 12-2 ATS mark since the break, punctuated by three straight wins (including two straight on the road), it appears that the Grizzlies have finally graduated to respectability... and while the Knicks looked like a team with a real shot at the playoffs despite their miserable start, we hve a difficult time seeing them winning and covering the spread against a Memphis team that is clicking on all cylinders on offense...
Outside of two games against teams from the state of Texas, the Grizzlies have scored at least 96 points in every one of their games since the All-Star game, and have averaged 105.5 points per game in that fourteen game span... this offensive ability has enabled the Grizzlies to go a spectacular 9-1 ATS as a single-digit dog since the break... and even with the very solid 8-6 SU mark the Grizzlies have put together since the break, Memphis has played even better than their record might indicate, as two of their losses have come by two points or less, with a third by just four points... The fact that New York comes from the weaker Eastern Conference shouldn't be underestimated, as the Grizzlies are now a whopping 7-1 ATS on the road against foes from the East, and are 8-0 ATS against the East in their last eight games regardless of venue...
The Knicks were a veritable offensive force for some time, but their offense has stalled a bit since the break... in fact, outside of two contests against the Magic, the Knicks have scored 97 points or less in each of their last five games - meanwhile, the Knicks have allowed at least 95 points in fifteen of their last sixteen games overall, with the sole exception coming from the Cleveland Cavaliers... and while the Grizzlies and Cavs may have somewhat similar records, there are very few similarities remaining between those two squads...
With very little discrepency between what the Knicks are scoring and what they are allowing to the opposition, New York has little right to be favored... the Knicks are now 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games as a favorite of more than three points, and against a Grizzlies team that not only seems to have turned the corner, but also has quite the advantage on the frontline with Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift, we can't help but think that the Grizzlies have an excellent chance of covering this contest, even if they are not able to win this game straight up... the road team has already won each of the last three games between these two teams, including Memphis coming out a 90-88 victor in their last trip to the Big Apple... while we expect both teams to score many more points in this contest, we see a similar result yet again, as the Grizzlies register their third consecutive road win, and their fourth straight victory overall...
FINAL PREDICTION: MEMPHIS 108, NEW YORK 101
Orlando @ Washington 7:05 PM EST
Orlando +2 over Washington (2 Units)
Orlando/Washington Over 191.5 (1.5 Units)
While many might expect Michael Jordan's verbal tirade as incentive for a strong performance in this contest, we have some trouble believing that MJ's words will have much weight anymore with a Wizards team that is quickly losing any incentive to play hard... While MJ might still be an icon within the rest of the league, his presence on the Wizards seems to be once again causing rifts, as his desire to go out in a blaze of glory conflicts directly with his other goal - to help and develop the young players on the rest of the team... after all, the more #23 plays, the less time the youngsters get to spend on the court, and the less chances they have for playing time...
And while Michael's latest rant might help inspire a few players, there are certainly many others who seem to resent what can be perceived as a selfish comeback by Jordan... and in reality, the Wizards are going to need a hell of a lot of motivation to be able to beat an Orlando team that has really turned the corner with the additions of Drew Gooden and Gordan Giricek to the lineup... since the trade that sent Mike Miller to Memphis, the Magic have won seven of their last nine games both SU and ATS, with the only two losses coming to the New York Knicks...
Offensively, the Magic have been virtually unstoppable over the past several weeks, scoring 97+ points in twelve consecutive games, and a whopping 102 points or more in each of their last six games, with a gaudy average of 106.7 ppg in that span... and with the Wizards now having scored less than 100 points in five straight games and just 89.2 ppg in that span, we have some trouble envisioning the Wizards being able to outscore the Magic in this contest...
That being said, the Wizards have had some offensive success at home against the Magic as of late, scoring 107 and 108 points in their last two home games against Orlando... therefore, in order to at least cover our play on the Magic, we are also making a play on the Over, as 191.5 points is certainly reachable between these two, and the Over is already a whopping 4-1 in the last five between these two in Washington... at the very least, we should be able to earn a split between the two plays, but with a little luck, we will get the clean sweep on both the side and the Over and pick up a tidy 3.5 Units...
FINAL PREDICTION: ORLANDO 102, WASHINGTON 97
San Antonio @ Milwaukee 8:05 PM EST
Milwaukee +3.5 over San Antonio (2 Units)
Milwaukee/San Antonio Over 196 (1 Units)
It's a very difficult concept to go against the San Antonio Spurs right now... after all, Tim Duncan and company are crushing the rest of the NBA in 2003, going an exceptional 24-5 straight up since the new year began... however, there is the little matter of facing a Milwaukee Bucks team that just seems to have San Antonio's number over the past few years, and it has been our experience that more often than not head-to-head matchups are the name of the game when it comes to predictig performance...
The Bucks have come home with the bacon both SU and ATS in six straight contests between these two, despite being underdogs in five of those contests... and while we do understand that Milwaukee has undergone some significant changes since these teams last met in December of last year, the new-look Bucks have started to gell again as they have gotten used to Gary Payton's and Desmond Mason's presences in the lineup... Milwaukee has now won four of their last five games straight up, and have scored at least 112 points in four home games since The Glove arrived...
Meanwhile, the Spurs haven't reached triple-digits in scoring against the Bucks in any of their last ten matchups, and have lost each of their last three games in Milwaukee... despite San Antonio's incredible play this season, they are still just 3-4 ATS as a road favorite against Eastern Conference competition this season... meanwhile, Milwaukee has won four of their last five home games against the Spurs, and have scored at least 99 points in each of their last three home contests against San Antonio... with Milwaukee on an offensive tear at home and with plenty of scoring options at their disposal (GP, Cassell, Redd, Thomas, D. Mason, and Kukoc), we can certainly envision the Spurs having trouble covering all of these weapons with their guards and swingmen... while we still advise some caution on this game (hence the 2-Unit rating), we believe that the odds are solid enough at a seventh straight Milwaukee win over San Antonio to make this a play this evening...
FINAL PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE 107, SAN ANTONIO 101
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Toronto @ Denver 9:05 PM EST
Denver +3 over Toronto (2 Units)
LA Lakers @ Chicago 8:35 PM EST
Chicago +9 over LA Lakers (1.5 Units)