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Southern Mississippi @ TCU 7:30 PM EST
TCU -2 over Southern Mississippi (4 Units)
Coming off a monstrous victory over the Louisville Cardinals, the TCU Horned Frogs host Southern Mississippi in a contest that should not be nearly as close as the line in this game would indicate... while Southern Miss is a solid 5-2 on the year, it is a hollow record, as their five wins have come against teams with a combined 11-24 mark on the season... against the only quality competition they have played this season (South Florida and Alabama), the Golden Eagles have been anything but golden on offense, scoring just 20 points in two losses...
Southern Miss is very lucky not to have a third notch in the L column after being outplayed for most of the game last week against Cincinnati... The Golden Eagles controlled the clock for just 21:14 and were a miserable 1 for 12 in 3rd down conversions, making them 1 for 18 since halftime of the South Florida game two weeks ago... if not for a touchdown and a safety turned in by the defense, Southern Miss would likely be looking at a 1-3 tailspin heading into this contest... as it is, the Southern Miss offense has scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games, with the only exception coming against an 0-8 Army squad who can't stop anyone... Quarterback Dustin Almond went just 7-22 for 92 yards in his first career start last week, and now gets his first road start, which doesn't bode well for his team's chances against a TCU squad that is firing on all cylinders...
TCU has compiled six straight wins on the season, and have won in more dominant fashion than the final stats might indicate, as they jumped out to a 31-0 lead over Louisville before cruising to an easy victory... TCU has been doing it with defense, stopping the run at a rate of just 69.7 yards allowed per contest after allowing -26 yards against Louisville... and when TCU shuts down the Golden Eagles rushing attack this week, things could get very ugly for Dustin Almond against a defense that leads the conference in takeaways with a gaudy 25 on the year...
TCU has accomplished thei winning streak despite an offensively line that hasn't been 100 percent healthy, but with a bye week to rest, the Horned Frogs look to come into this game with full health on the O-line for the first time all season... the bye week has been good to TCU in the past, as they have gone 5-1 ATS at home after a bye week... in fact, playing at home has been terrific for TCU, as they are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games, and a perfect 15-0 straight up when favored at home...
Southern Miss, on the other hand, has gone 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games (1-4 as a dog), and are a miserable 2-13 SU when installed as an underdog away from home... considering the line in this game is less than a field goal, anything less than a straight up win will likely mean a non-cover, and from the stats we've listed above, it looks as though a TCU straight up win is pretty much in the bag...
However, just to add more fuel to the fire, Southern Miss is 1-7 ATS overall (0-4 in their last four games), are allowing 192+ yards rushing per game this season, and are 1-4 ATS on the road after a week or more off... On the flipside, TCU has scored at least 34 points in each of their last three games, while allowing just 33 total points in their last three home games... finally, when the TCU offense gets rolling (as it has over the last three weeks), it usually stays hot, as the Horned Frogs are 8-1 SU after scoring 40 or more points... While we expect less points from TCU in this contest, we see more than enough offense to win against a Southern Miss team that will struggle to even reach double-digits in this game...
FINAL PREDICTION: TCU 19, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 7
New York @ Detroit 8:05 PM EST
New York +9 over Detroit (3 Units)
New York/Detroit Under 179.5 (4.5 Units)
The Pistons turned in a 50 win season last year by playing strong team defense and surrounding a strong scorer with several solid role players... now, with the trade of Jerry Stackhouse for Richard Hamilton, the Pistons have kept their defensive intensity, but have become a team of all role players it seems... and in going up against a depleted Knicks team that will be preaching defense in order to try and stay competitive, the Under in this game looks like an inevitability...
Just take a look at both of these teams in the preseason if you need any convincing that this game will be low-scoring... the Pistons have held six of their seven opponents to 80 points or less, including an amazing 69 and 66 points in their last two preseason games against the Heat and the Wizards... on offense, six of those seven games have resulted in scoring of between 80 and 86 points, as Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups have had difficulty filling the role of a go-to guy...
Detroit hasn't really needed that guy however, as their 8-0 preseason mark has proven that playing solid defense is all that is really necessary... and with such terrific results during the preseason, we doubt that the Pistons will change their strategy in game one of the regular season, especially against a team with such limited offensive weapons as the Knicks...
With Antonio McDyess out for the season, and Latrell Sprewell out for several weeks, the Knicks' hopes rest on Allan Houston and a bunch of role players... and expecting the Knicks to score more than the 89 points that was their high mark over the last five games of the preseason is asking way too much against one of the best defensive teams in the league...
These two teams have played one another very close over the past several years, especially in the Motor City, where the last five games have been decided by seven points or less... additionally, despite Detroit's strong season last year, they failed as a home favorite in the latter half of the year, going just 4-12 ATS as a home favorite... the road team in this series is a perfect 6-0 ATS, while the underdog has covered each of the last five matchups between these squads... and the Knicks, despite their troubles last year and this, have been a surprisingly strong play as a mid-to-large underdog, going 6-1 ATS as a dog of between 6 and 12 points... with what we expect to be a very low-scoring contest, the 9 point line in this contest is too tempting to pass up... therefore take the Knicks and the Under in a game that will be uglier than it sounds...
FINAL PREDICTION: DETROIT 86, NEW YORK 81
Chicago @ Boston 7:00 PM EST
Chicago +10 over Boston (4 Units)
The Celtics look to match last season's Eastern Conference finals appearance, and would love to start the season with nothing more than a double-digit win against the Bulls, who have been searching for respectability for years now... both teams have undergone facelifts in the offseason, as Boston traded point guard Kenny Anderson and change to the Sonics for perennial underachiever Vin Baker and new starting point guard Shammond Williams, while the Bulls have solidified their starting lineup by signing Donyell Marshall and drafting Jay Williams in the offseason... and while it is questionable that the Celtics have actually improved their squad, we're expecting a much more competitive Bulls team this year, as they field a halfway decent team for the first time since the championship years...
Jalen Rose and Donyell Marshall should team with an improved Eddy Curry to form a pretty solid frontcourt that can provide scoring and rebounding, two aspects that had long been missing from the Windy City... and with Marcus Fizer showing some dramatic improvement in the offseason and Tyson Chandler with a year under his belt, Chicago actually possesses a very talented frontcourt that runs six deep (including a healthy Eddie Robinson) and should provide the Bulls with the interior strength to become much more competitive, if not win more games this season... coach Bill Cartwright's influence has really begun to show with the youngsters inside, and with some seasoned veterans on the squad, we can expect far less blowout losses this year...
The improvement started last year after the Bulls traded for Jalen Rose, who gave the Bulls the go-to player they have lacked since the days of Jordan and Pippen... The Bulls underwent a fairly dramatic transition from a team that tried to stay in games by slowing the ball down to an up-tempo team that actually scored 96+ points in their final nine games of last season and saw the Over go 9-0 in those games... the improved level of play showed at the end of last season, as the Bulls went a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of more than six points...
Meanwhile, with expectations at a higher level in Beantown, we are seeing a double-digit line in this contest, despite the fact that the Celtic have a more important division game with the Wizards lingering the next evening... and when the Celtics have been faced with an away game the next night, Boston has been an awful play against the spread, covering just 5 of their last 19 home games over the past 2.5 seasons... as a large favorite in general, the Celts haven't shown enough to be trusted, as they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of more than seven points... and when you consider that the Bulls have covered six of their last seven games against Boston with teams much weaker than this year's incarnation, we really like the Bulls here to cover tonight's spread... the last three games in this series (and five of the last six) have been decided by six points or less, and we expect a very similar result tonight, as the Celtics win this game, but not by double-digits...
FINAL PREDICTION: BOSTON 102, CHICAGO 96
San Antonio @ Golden State 10:35 PM EST
San Antonio -6 over Golden State (4 Units)
The Spurs got the win last night over the Lakers despite an awful performance from Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, who combined to shoot just 3 of 23 from the floor... as a team, the Spurs shot just 37.7 percent from the field, and yet still was able to pull out a five point victory at the Lakers... now, with a game under their belt, the Spurs get to face their second straight undermanned squad in the Golden State Warriors, who are without several key reserves and may be dressing just eight players tonight, as the foursome of Fortson/Mills/Sura/Welsch all look to be sidelined in this game...
It's a shame for the Warriors that chaos has overtaken this team so early, as they have actually compiled quite a bit of talent... however, with the team unable to run 5-on-5 drills for over a week now, they are going to have a very difficult time hanging with a veteran team like the Spurs, who not only hold a massive experience advantage, but also a height advantage on the inside that should wreak havoc on the Warriors... How are Troy Murphy and Antawn Jamison going to stop a Tim Duncan who is motivated to put last night's performance aside?
The Spurs have been one of the best teams in the league when it comes to reserving energy, as their 14-6 ATS record last year with no rest would attest... The Spurs have won each of their last ten games against the Warriors by a miniumum of 8 points, and are now just giving 6 points to Golden State due to the perception that the Spurs will be tired coming into this game, while the Warriors will be fresh... then again, the Spurs have been favored by 6-7 points in three of their last four trips to Golden State (which by the way, is not far from Los Angeles), and they covered the spread on each occasion...
Golden State will be a much improved team this year, but it certainly won't show tonight, as the Spurs cruise to a double-digit win.
FINAL PREDICTION: SAN ANTONIO 97, GOLDEN STATE 85
Washington @ Toronto 7:00 PM EST
Toronto -2 over Washington (3.5 Units)
It's the season opener for the Toronto Raptors, and Vince Carter is certainly glad to finally have last season out of the system... After dealing with a knee injury and then the emotional wounds that came with the public wondering if the Raptors were better without him in the lineup, it's an understatement to say that we can expect a focused and determined Vince Carter this year, as he sets out to reclaim the superstar label that got tarnished last season...
All the focus on this game seems to be on the Wizards, as Michael Jordan laces them up one more time to try and take the Wizards to the promised land... and while he does so with a much stronger supporting case this year (with Jerry Stackhouse, Larry Hughes, Bryon Russell and Charles Oakley), the fact that there has been so much turnover on this squad will likely make it difficult for team chemistry to develop early in the year... add on the distraction of a team trying to defer to the greatest player ever to play in the NBA, and this could cause enough turmoil in game one of the season to keep the Wizards from winning this contest...
Lost in last season's improvement by the Wiz is the fact that they started off a miserable 2-9 while trying to fit his Airness into the rotation... and judging by the way the Wizards finished the preseason this year, that same issue seems to be arising this year, despite the added veterans on this squad... in the last three games of this preseason, the Wiz were able to knock off a woeful Denver squad, but lost by 9+ points to both Detroit and Boston on the road, including being outscored by a 50-22 margin in the first half against the Pistons... while we all know that we can't read too much into the preseason, it is interesting to note that the Wizards started off the preseason 4-0 without Michael Jordan in the lineup, and finished off the preseason by dropping 3 of 4...
It's not as if the Wizards have been a strong road team anyway, going just 22-60 on the road the past two seasons, including finishing off last season with six straight road losses and a 3-13 record in their last 16 road games... meanwhile, despite what was a disappointing season by the Raptors last year, Toronto finished off last season by winning their last 10 home games both SU and ATS, including a 6-0 mark as a road favorite... while losing Keon Clark will likely come back to hurt the Raptors later on this season, we don't expect the loss to be noticeable against a Washington frontline that fetaures Brendan Haywood and a still-unproven Kwame Brown - Antonio Davis, Jerome Williams, Jelani McCoy and Michael Bradley should do a more than adequate job of filling the middle for the Raptors in this one...
Quickly forgotten in last year's debacle with Vince Carter is that the Raptors were 8 games over .500 when Carter first went down hard on February 7th against San Antonio... Toronto quickly fell on their faces, but were able to learn to perform as a team without Carter in the lineup, and should be a much better team with Vince back, as they now have learned that performing as a team is much more effective than just relying on a single superstar...
The Wizards received a second superstar in their offseason trade with the Pistons... However, Jerry Stackhouse was completely shutdown by Morris Peterson in last season's playoff matchup between the Raptors and the Pistons, as Stackhouse was held to just 31 points on 9 for 38 shooting in the final three games of the series... the Raptors have gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five home games against the Wizards, and with Vince-sanity having something to prove against a Washington team that still needs time to gel, we expect them to win the season opener by double-digits...
FINAL PREDICTION: TORONTO 102, WIZARDS 91
Denver @ Minnesota 8:05 PM EST
Minnesota -14.5 over Denver (3 Units)
There are some awful teams in the NBA this season, but it may not get any worse than the Denver Nuggets, who are fielding a team that will challenge the record for most losses in an NBA season... with Juwan Howard suspended and Marcus Camby out for this contest, the Nuggets will be fielding a squad that will be virtually unrecognizable to anyone who has followed the NBA over the past several seasons, with mostly rookies and fringe players littering the roster...
The end result should be a very easy Minnesota victory where the Timberwolves reserves see plenty of time and actually expand upon the final margin, as Minnesota's backups of Rod Strickland, Marc Jackson, Kendall Gill, Anthony Peeler, and Gary Trent are better than most of the Denver starters in this contest...
The bottom line is that there will be no dropoff when this game hits blowout city, which should occur early in the first half, as the Timberwolves cruise to a victory similar to that of their preseason finale against the Pacers, which the Wolves won by a score of 111-76... while 14.5 points may seem like a lot to lay in this contest, we see the Wolves covering the number with relative ease, as the Nuggets start off their longest season with a loss of 20 points or more....
FINAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 104, DENVER 81
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
LA Lakers @ Portland 9:35 PM EST
Portland -7.5 over LA Lakers (3 Units)
Portland/LA Lakers Over 183.5 (3 Units)
Orlando @ Miami 7:30 PM EST
Orlando -3 over Miami (1.5 Units)
Phoenix @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Seattle/Phoenix Under 179.5 (1 Unit)