Top 5: Best NBA second half bets
By MATT SOUTHARD on
Closing ability: Some teams have the aptitude to put teams away in the second half and some teams don't. Well, to put it more plainly, the good teams have it and the bad teams don't. You shouldn't be shocked that the teams on this list are all in playoff contention and well above .500. You also shouldn't be shocked three of the teams have above .500 against the spread records. Here are the top five second half teams in terms of scoring average and points allowed.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers average 4.7 points more in the second half than their opponents helping them achieve a league-best 34-8 record. This stat shouldn't come as a surprise considering the Lakers have one of the greatest closers in NBA history in Kobe Bryant and also, you have to factor in that Los Angeles boasts one of the deeper teams in the league.
Los Angeles is 28-3 SU when leading after the second quarter and 24-3 SU when leading after halftime. The Lakers are averaging 53.4 points in the second half and allowing 48.7 points per half. Not only does it make Los Angeles an enticing second half side bet, but also offers up some value in terms of the total. The Lakers already have the highest-scoring offense in the league at around 107.8 points per game and have a 25-17 record against the number.
More importantly, the Lakers are above .500 when trailing at halftime. Los Angeles is 8-4 SU when trailing at halftime.
New Orleans Hornets
New Orleans has been a shaky bet all season. The Hornets, while 26-14 SU, are 17-21-1 ATS. The team's biggest problem is getting out of the starting blocks. When leading at the break, the Hornets are 19-3. But when trailing, the team is 5-11.
New Orleans needs a hot start in order to keep pace, especially when looking at the injuries that have hampered their rotations all season long.
In the second half, the Hornets have a penchant for turning it on, averaging 49.1 points and allowing 44.7. But that's not surprising that they have to kick into high gear and play catch-up late in games since they allow 47.9 points to 47.2 scored in the first half.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 28-13 ATS and sits atop the Eastern Conference with a 33-8 record. Cleveland scores 49.3 points per second half and allows 45.4. The obvious reason for this is they play a complete game.
When the Cavaliers have the lead at half, they are 27-4 SU. As in the case of the Lakers, being deep doesn't hurt. It also helps that the club surrenders just 90 points per game, making Cleveland the top defense in the Association. But recent injuries have caused some pause in late-game wagers on the Cavaliers.
Since the injury to Delonte West early in their victory over New Orleans on Jan. 16 (and the absence of still-injured Zydrunas Ilgauskas), those numbers have fluctuated.
In their last five, Cleveland has scored 44 points on average in second halves. With the lack of depth hurting them late in games, they have allowed 48.6 points.
Portland Trailblazers
Portland (25-17 SU, 19-22 ATS) ranks on this list because of its bench: They possess the second-best scoring unit in the league at 35.3 points per game. Those same bench players can also defend. On average, the Trail Blazers score 49.3 points per second half and allow just 45.6. This is all the more important because Portland tends to keep it close in the early going, scoring 48.6 and allowing opponents to score 48 points per first half.
Portland has entered the third quarter with the lead 20 times this season and has trailed 19 times. Much of this inconsistency owes to the fact that Portland has a tough time keeping teams off of the glass: The Trailblazers rank 30th in the league in defensive rebounds, allowing teams second-chance points especially late in the game.
The Blazers depth allows them to stay in games late and even outpace teams in the third quarter (to the tune of 24.4 scored and 22.5 allowed), but a lack of physicality and size hurts them late in games.
Boston Celtics
There are two reasons why the Celtics (36-9 SU, 25-20 ATS) are revered around the league and are the defending champions. Like the Lakers, they have closers in Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. And like Cleveland, they tend to play a complete and well-rounded 48 minutes.
The Celtics average 50 points per second half. They give up 46.8 points. But what sets Boston apart is its ability to get all over opponents in the first half with its defense. Boston is 26-3 SU when leading after intermission and 31-3 when leading after the third quarter.
Boston can afford to do this thanks to big leads built up early and a stifling defense. In the first half, the offense puts up 50.6 points on average and the defense allows just 44.2, allowing Boston to throw it into prevent mode in the second half.
That might cause some consternation in Celtic second-half bets considering they tend to allow more points in the fourth quarter than they do in any other quarter (24.5 allowed to 23.9 scored).