DENVER +3 over Toronto
Two of the NBA's weaker teams square off at Pepsi Center tonight when the Toronto Raptors take on the Denver Nuggets. Toronto has lost four of its last seven games, most recently a 119-106 home setback at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies. Denver has dropped 15 of its last 16 games, most recently a 111-98 loss at Orlando.
We are looking for the Nuggets to be quite competitive here as they return home following their trip east. Denver has had some success against the Raptors, as they are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Toronto. The Raptors had some fight left as they were trying to rally for a playoff run, but recent losses have taken away any realistic postseason hoops hopes. They'll have a tough time getting up here for the Nuggets, a team they beat at home early in the season. Toronto is a horrific 0-11 SU/1-10 ATS when playing revenge-minded non-conference opponents. They have also stumbled on the road as a favorite with another road game the following night, going 1-5 ATS. They will be in Portland on Wednesday, and we note that they are 0-6 ATS before a road tilt with the Blazers, losing to the spread by 14 points a game!
Only twice in the past 7+ seasons of NBA play has a team been made a road favorite against a non-Grizzlies team following a home loss to Vancouver/Memphis, and the results were disastrous for the visitors, as they went 0-2 ATS, losing to the spread by an average of 30 points a game! In fact, it was these same Raptors in that position, being made a road fave in Washington following a home loss to the Grizzlies. Toronto was blown out, and fell 31 points shy of the pointspread. While we are not expecting a Nuggets blowout here, we do think they will be able to pull this one out.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: DENVER 88 TORONTO 86