Tournament betting tips from an expert
Ben Burns
With college basketball tournaments exploding all around us like a fourth of July festival, it's important to know what to look for when examining winning edges against the spread.
First, don't get caught up about a team's overall record because they can be deceptive. Remember a few months ago when the Patriots started 18-0? But it all came down to one big game, and the underdog Giants pulled the upset, outplaying the 18-0 Pats for three hours. I sure do
It’s similar in college basketball, where a no-name team or one with an inferior record can rise up and knock off a big-name school in two hours of competition.
That word “competition” is key. Who did these teams play during the season? To use another football analogy, think back two years ago when the Steelers won the title. Pittsburgh had a weaker overall record in the playoffs, but was the favorite in the Super Bowl over Seattle, a No. 1 seed with a better record. It's more important to look at the level of competition and their recent play. The Steelers had played in the more competitive AFC and had knocked off power teams like the Colts and Broncos.
When examining college basketball matchups over the next few weeks, it’s essential to look at who each team played. One of the criticisms of Memphis over the last couple of years is that they play an easy schedule, roll up a sensational record, then roll over in March because they are overvalued or aren’t used to playing close games or tough competition. On the other hand, that’s probably not the case this season, having played non-conference games against UConn, Oklahoma, USC, Georgetown and Tennessee. That’s a good thing, as they are 15-0 in conference play, outscoring C-USA opponents by 20 points per game. They generally don’t even break a sweat in their own conference. A lack of challenges and close games is not good preparation for March.
Tennessee just won the SEC title, as well as playing a competitive non-conference slate with games against Texas, Xavier, Gonzaga, Ohio State and Memphis. Bruce Pearl said winning the SEC title was emotional, but at the same time, he was very matter-of-fact when encapsulating his team's performance. “Relief? Not really, because this is what we set out to do,” he said. “This team did what it was supposed to do.” They appear to have bigger fish to fry. By the way, note that the Vols are 5-0 SU/ATS this season as a dog. Keep that in mind during tournament play.
It’s even more important to look at who smaller schools have faced and how they played when stepping up in competition. I recall two years ago when George Washington entered the Atlantic 10 tournament with a 26-1 record. But the schedule was soft overall, and they had a key injury and a suspension that sapped their depth. It didn't take long for them to head south, losing 68-53 to Temple in the first game as a favorite. Strength of schedule and injuries did them in.
The other thing to look at is how a team has done lately, say, the last two to four weeks. Some teams have injuries and it slows down the second half of their season, or vice versa, such as Louisville, a club that battled injuries early but has been on a tear the second half.
Some other teams begin to play better down the stretch because they are young and it can take them time to gel and gain confidence. Look carefully to see who slumped and you can identify teams that might not feel like even playing conference tournaments, or later, such as in the NIT.
We are in the second season of college basketball, with the third season (NIT, March Madness) right around the corner. Stepping up in class and recent play are important gauges to identify who is ready to play and who isn't.