4/1 EVENING MLB:
Seattle @ Oakland
Oakland -140 over Seattle (3.5 Units)
Oakland/Seattle Under 8 (1.5 Units)
The incredible AL West race starts for both the Seattle Mariners and the Oakland Athletics this evening as respective aces Freddy Garcia and Tim Hudson face off... however, if there is one consistent trend when these two teams meet up in Oakland, it's that the oddsmakers rarely seem to be wrong, as the favorite has now covered seven straight games between these squads... with Tim Hudson and the A's installed as a -140 favorite in this contest, we feel compelled to dig a little deeper and see if they do indeed hold the edge here...
It's very difficult to argue with Hudson's work against the Mariners recently, as he has allowed just one run and twelve hits in his last sixteen innings of work against Ichiro and company... and with a 2.61 ERA in his last six starts against Seattle, you certainly won't hear us complaining...
Freddy Garcia pitched exceptionally well in his last start in Oakland, allowing just one run in 7.2 innings of work... however, that performance was Garcia's only quality start in his last four appearances against the Athletics, and Garcia totes a robust 6.96 ERA since 2000 into this contest against the A's...
We're also not too impressed with the way that Garcia has turned into the type of pitcher who rarely turns in dominating performances... Garcia finished last season by allowing at least three runs in each of his last ten appearances of the season... and frankly, with Tim Hudson on the mound, three runs should be more than enough to give the Athletics the win here... take Oakland and lay the juice...
FINAL PREDICTION: OAKLAND 4, SEATTLE 1
Los Angeles @ Arizona 8:35 PM EST
Los Angeles +210 over Arizona (3 Units)
Los Angeles/Arizona Under 7.5 (2.5 Units)
We know and understand that Arizona is now 10-0 in Curt Schilling starts, and that the occasion is extremely rare when Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling lose back-to-back games... however, we believe that this line is just too high in favor of the Diamondbacks against Odalis Perez, considering their struggles on offense at home against the Dodgers...
After last night's 8-0 shutout at the hands of Hideo Nomo, the Diamondbacks have now scored just 15 runs in their last seven home games agaist the Dodgers, including five instances where they have been held to two runs or less... the Dodgers have won five of those seven games, and after last night's win as a massive underdog, LA is now 2-1 as a dog of more than 200 against the D'Backs, and a whopping 15-8 in their last 23 games as a road dog dating back to last season... in other words, LA is a dangerous team to go against as a road dog, and with Odalis Perez on the mound tonight, they are doubly so...
Perez finally began to fulfill his promise last season for the Dodgers, and his last two starts against Arizona have been downright amazing, as Perez has now held the D'Backs scoreless for 14 innings, allowing a measly seven hits and just nine baserunners in his last two starts against Arizona... and with umpire Jeff Nelson calling the balls and strikes in this contest, LA looks to have quite the added bonus on their side...
In the last five games that Nelson has called, the road team and the Under are both a perfect 5-0... and as strange as it may seem, Nelson's predisposition towards the road team has manifested itself in a 4-0 road mark in games involving the Dodgers, and a 6-2 mark in Arizona games as well... perhaps even more interesting that this road phenomenon is the fact that the underdog is now an amazing 9-1 (including seven straight wins) in Dodgers games with Nelson behind the plate... Both times that Schilling has been on the mound with Nelson influencing the game, the opposing team has scored at least four runs, with a total of nine runs crossing the plate in Schilling's two starts... and let's be honest here - if LA is able to score even three runs here, they have a whale of a shot of winning yet again as a massive underdog against the Diamondbacks... in just looking at the odds, LA is a winning proposition in this situation if they win once every three games against this number... and with Arizona's offensive struggles against the Dodgers, and LA's 5-2 mark in Arizona, we think their odds of winning this game are closer to 50/50 than one in three...
In addition to our play on LA, we are also advocting the Under, as in addition to having two exceptional pitchers on the mound, we're dealing with an umpire that has seen the Under go not only 6-0-1 in his last seven games, but 6-1 in games involving the Dodgers, and 5-1-2 in games involving the Diamondbacks... as is often the case with betting underdogs in baseball, there is no real guarantee of a win, but when looking at this game as a long-term investment, taking the Dodgers and the Under is a very wise double-play...
FINAL PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES 4, ARIZONA 2
4/1 REMAINING MLB (no analysis):
Colorado @ Houston 7:05 PM EST
Houston -220 over Colorado (2 Units)
Texas @ Anaheim 10:05 PM EST
Texas +120 over Anaheim (1.5 Units)
Boston @ Tampa Bay 7:15 PM EST
Tampa Bay +200 over Boston (1 Unit)