Tuesday NBA Playoffs Selection & Analysis

Tuesday NBA Playoffs Selection & Analysis

Tuesday Opinion Selection

Chicago +8’ over MIAMI

The Heat have gone cold, as they dropped 2 road games over the weekend to let the Bulls tie this first-round series at 2-2. After talk of a sweep, Miami is now trying to avoid losing control of the series to Chicago.

The Heat averaged 113 points on 50.3 percent shooting in Miami, but just 88.5 points on 41.6 percent in their two losses in the Windy City. Shaquille O'Neal had 16 points, eight rebounds and three turnovers, playing only 24 minutes because of foul trouble in Game 4. That performance came one game after one of the worst playoff efforts in his career, as he finished with eight points, four rebounds, five fouls and seven turnovers in 24 minutes of Game 3. Shaq averaged 24.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in the first two games, but the Bulls were able to aggressively get to the basket with O'Neal on the bench for long stretches Sunday. “We need him out on the court, we just need him on the court,” Miami coach Pat Riley said. “I don't know how we're going to get around that.”

If Miami continues to underestimate these “baby Bulls” and assume that all will be well once they return home, they will likely be in for another rude awakening. “We've really progressed since the first two games in Miami", said Ben Gordon. “When we go down to Miami, we've got to keep the snowball going. We've got momentum going. We've got confidence, so we've got to keep it up”.

"This game is huge for us," added the Bulls’ Nocioni, who led all scorers on Sunday with 24 points. "It's more for the confidence. We know we can win this series."

In what qualifies as the Bulls' biggest collective statement in eight years, they used a national stage Sunday to showcase Exhibit A of how to play the smart way, the cohesive way, the infectious way. All you need to know about the wobbling Heat team and its Game 4 internal problems is that Gary Payton, the slightly askew hothead who last smiled in the previous millennium, engaged golden child Dwyane Wade in a fiery on-court argument and had to be separated from Wade when tensions and cussing escalated during a timeout.

Seems Wade, the teacher's pet, isn't always viewed as fondly by his teammates as he is by Pat Riley. They don't think he has distributed the ball well, and while that hardly is the major reason this suddenly fascinating first-round series is tied at 2-2, the division is symbolic of the Heat's considerable stress quotient. Payton's dialogue with Wade was something off a playground, insulting and crude, and even when Payton tried to spin the confrontation as nothing afterward, he uttered a comparison that should make the Bulls howl in delight and remind them the opponents are vulnerable to an implosion.

"It's sort of what Donovan McNabb and T.O. used to do to pump up their team,'' said Payton, apparently not realizing the battles between Terrell Owens and McNabb wrecked the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bulls may not win this series, but they are seemingly immune to a blowout, particularly with the Heat in tatters. There is enormous pressure on Pat Riley, who probably did too much tweaking to a team that was one Wade injury from the NBA Finals last year and faces a career embarrassment if he loses to Chicago. They know the weight on the aging shoulders of O'Neal, who sees Kobe Bryant and his old team in Los Angeles about to spring an upset of the Phoenix Suns while he and his new team struggle against the superstar-less, center-less Bulls. The Heat is walking in dissension quicksand, pushed into the pit by the Bulls and their pesky, irritating, efficient style.

The Bulls have run Miami into fatigue and frustration, and the Heat's failure to cope with an opponent so relentless is revealing itself physically and psychologically. It's as though the Heat would rather be condescending toward the Bulls than angry at them, because the latter would be an admission of concern. "They're not just penetrating without screens. It's pick, pick, pick, back and forth," said Wade. "They use the whole 24. It's tough to guard and continue to try to help and close out on shooters."

A PRO INFO SPORTS NBA PLAYOFF POWER SYSTEM demonstrates the trouble Miami is in here. Playoff 2-2 favorites of less than 10 points off 2 SU losses of 3+ points are 0-10 ATS since 2000. Neither win by the Bulls was a fluke, and won’t be here as they take the Heat down to the wire and get at least another spread win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MIAMI 103 CHICAGO 100