WARM WEATHER MIGHT MEAN "OVER" TEAMS WILL REALLY EXPLODE
DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
Baseball wagerers have been bemoaning the lack of scoring this year. I'm not talking about the sharps, who typically like to bet Unders. They're very happy about this being a low scoring season. I'm talking about the casual wagerers wandering around the sportsbooks trying to have some fun. This type of bettor tends to play Overs when they bet totals, just because it's more fun to root for offense than it is to root for defense.
Whether it's steroids being taken out of the game, cooler than normal weather in the early weeks of the season, or just the natural ebb and flow of the game suddenly favoring pitchers, scoring is down this season. More teams are playing Unders than Overs.
As I mentioned in a recent article, scoring may be about to increase as the weather gets really hot. That's why we looked at who the good and bad home run teams were. In favorable conditions, teams who are already good at hitting home runs may start to ignite and have some really big games. In the same sort of light, teams who are already playing Overs may start to post some very high totals:
That's because:
* Teams already playing Overs are scoring runs. We're about to hit conditions which will favor run scoring.
* Teams already playing Overs have vulnerable pitching staffs. Those teams are about to get more vulnerable as conditions favor scoring across the spectrum
I thought it would be interesting to try and isolate the handful of teams who are most likely to play a bunch of Overs in the next couple of months. If we know who they are NOW, we can take advantage before the line adjusts. Oddsmakers have pretty much settled into the totals range they plan to use for the time being. Everything's stable from one day to the next. Nobody's panicking when a lot of money comes in on an Over or an Under in any particular game. If we find some good nominees, we might be able to take advantage for several weeks.
Here are the characteristics we need to be looking for:
* Teams who are already playing more Overs than Unders even though it's been an Under season across the majors.
* Teams who play their home games in North or Midwest climates. Most experts believe unseasonable cool weather has helped reduce scoring this year. If teams were playing Overs in those conditions, they will put on some fireworks shows in the summer.
We'll leave out teams who play in domes, or teams who play in the South for now if they happen to show up on our initial list of "Over" teams. They may keep playing Overs (and we'll monitor that). But, they won't "ignite" in quite the same way. They're just going to keep doing what they've been doing. The oddsmakers know about that. We're looking for teams who might be ready to see a leap forward in scoring from what were already high marks.
TEAMS PLAYING OVERS THIS YEAR (records through Monday Night, pushes exluded, ranked by number of games over .500, based on my own closing lines---so you're records might be slightly different):
Cincinnati: 30-21
Florida: 28-21
Cleveland: 27-20
Detroit: 27-20
Tampa Bay: 26-19
Milwaukee: 27-21
Philadelphia: 27-22
Seattle: 25-21
LA Dodgers: 26-22
There's only one dome team on the list, Tampa Bay. Let's throw them out for now. Teams from Southern or balmy clients are Florida and Los Angeles. They might keep playing Overs, but they're not going to ignite in the way we're looking for. Let's take them off the list. That leaves the following:
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Detroit
Milwaukee
Philadelphia
Seattle
This is a group that has been playing Overs despite dealing with cooler than normal weather in the early weeks of the season. In June and July, we could see a big boost in scoring in their games (related to both offense and pitching) that will catch the oddsmakers napping.
I would point out that Seattle plays in a good pitcher's park. Their tendencies may show up more on the road than at home. Detroit's in a similar boat, but they've made changes to their ballpark in recent years that have helped offenses a bit. The other four teams make a lot of sense as nominees to watch very closely.
In my years in the sports gambling world, I'm always surprised by how many bettors look backward. By that, I mean they look back and what just happened and use that to predict what's going to happen. You see it at the roulette wheel as players look at the recent numbers that have come up for patterns. Some play the "hot" theory, some play the "due" theory. But, they're still basing their bets on recent form. In sports, there are many cases where what's "about" to happen can't really be seen in the numbers. You have to adjust for context. You have to have an understanding of the big picture.
Some examples:
* Minnesota's college football team has a recent history of blowing out patsies in September, then falling back to earth in Big Ten play. If you handicapped based on the blowouts, you consistently overestimated the Gopher's chances to do well in the conference. Minnesota just changed head coaches, so this characteristic may disappear with the new regime. That's okay with me, it's still present in some other places!
* Duke's basketball team isn't well suited for playoff style hoops. They're great at running up the score in front of friendly officials. On neutral courts in March, they don't get the calls, they don't play enough defense, and they don't rebound well. Duke consistently fails to live up to their seedings in the Big Dance as a result. It took the sports world YEARS to notice this because everyone was looking at how great Duke seemed in the regular season.
* Many NFL teams "take a week off" when playing a non-conference opponent. This is particularly true if a divisional rival is up next. If you handicap based on recent stats, you'll greatly overestimate their win potential in the game they don't care about. Probably the toughest thing about handicapping the NFL is know when and where teams will take a week off. Nobody can give peak intensity for 16 games a year. Stat handicappers are constantly scratching their heads as a result.
It's important to LOOK AHEAD when handicapping! Honestly, everybody, including the oddsmakers, knows what just happened. Everyone's watching the same games on TV. Everyone's got the same stats from the internet. It's always been my belief that Las Vegas pointspreads are most vulnerable when everybody's thinking about what just happened rather than the conditions that might cause a change the next time those players take the field. The greatest upsets in sports are directly linked to false expectations from people looking backward.
Needless to say, I think today's exercise will help us find some great situations to exploit in the coming days and weeks.