==================
LT Profits.
NBA - 8:35 ET
Washinton Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
WIZARDS / CAVALIERS OVER 193.5
We felt before Game 4 that the best chance that Washington had of getting back in this series was to go back to Wizards basketball. This means running the court and simply outscoring the opposition, with defense being merely an afterthought. As a result, the Wizards cracked the century mark for the first time in this series, and we expect cappersmall.com a similar pace tonight the best service plays on the net.. Granted the Cavaliers would prefer a half-court game, but they have shown throughout the year that they too are capable of putting their feet on the gas with some success, so we would not be shocked if both clubs break 100 points
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Vegas Sports Authority
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Sportbook Guru
2 units: Washington/Florida Over 8.5 +100
=================
Net Prophet
MLB:
Milwaukee (Bush) -115 over San Francisco (Schmidt)
Chicago Cubs (Maddux) -115 over Arizona (Batista)
NBA:
Indiana/Washington UNDER 194
NHL:
Anaheim/Calgary UNDER 5 -130
==========================
Charlie Sports
nba. washington @ cleveland under 193' 500*
nba. milwaukee @ detroit over 194' 30*
nba. detroit-12 20*
mlb. phillie pk 20*
mlb. detroit over 8' runs 10*
mlb. cleveland+105 10* free play
==============================
ATS Handicapping
Baseball:
4 Units on Minnesota Twins -1½ +110 (J. Mays, B. Radke)
Reason: Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more
(KANSAS CITY) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the
season (AL), after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games. (50-7 over
the last 5 seasons.) (87.7%, +36.5 units. Rating = 4*) The average
money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line
of: -192.1 The average score in these games was: Team 6.5, Opponent 3.3
(Average run differential = +3.2) The situation's record this season
is: (1-0, +1 units). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is:
(15-2, +11.4 units). Since 1997 the situation's record is: (58-15,
+28.5 units).
4 Units on Detroit Tigers -140 (J. Weaver, Robertson)
Reason: Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150
(LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on
the season-AL, ! after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or
more runs. (36-6 since 1997.) (85.7%, +27.8 units. Rating = 4*) The
average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money
line of: -137 The average score in these games was: Team 6.3, Opponent
3.7 (Average run differential = +2.6) The situation's record this
season is: (0-0, +0 units). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's
record is: (10-0, +10 units). Over the last 5 seasons the situation's
record is: (14-0, +14 units).
3 Units on Toronto Blue Jays O 9 +105 (R. Halladay, J. Beckett)
Play Over - Home teams (BOSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG
<=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, starting a
pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings. (31-8 over the
last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.5 units. Rating = 3*) The average total
posted in these games was: 8.9, Money Line=-106.2 The average score in
these games was: Team 5, Opponent 7.3 (Total runs scored = 12.3) The
number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more
runs was 29 (76.3% of all games.) The situation's record this season
is: (0-0, +0 units). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is:
(11-4, +6.9 units). Since 1997 the situation's record is: (43-24, +17.2
units).
==========
Ats Lock Club
3* wiz
Young Gun Sports
3* Cle/Wash Under
===================
Balfe:
Tigers -140 over Angels
Robertson/Weaver
====================
Gameday Network
St Louis @ Houston
Pick: OVER 8.5
====================
Mike Warren
2* Boston,A's
==================
Matt Fargo
Free Pick For TodaySport: Major League Baseball Picks
Game: Cleveland Indians @ Oakland Athletics on May 3, 2006 10:05PM
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
Reason: Oakland returns home after a very successful road trip where it went 6-1 including wins in five consecutive games. The A’s are now two games over .500 and entertain a struggling Cleveland team that has dropped six of its last 10. Dan Haren is coming off a solid start at Kansas City during that roadtrip and he has faced the Indians twice in his career, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA, both Oakland wins. One of the A’s wins was at Cleveland which was a surprise since the home team is 15-4 in the last 19 meetings.
Paul Byrd takes the hill for the Indians and he has gotten off to a very slow start since arriving in Cleveland. He is 3-2 but has an 8.03 ERA and 1.54 WHIP to go along with that as he has allowed at least five runs in three of his five starts on the season. Byrd had faced Oakland plenty last season in his time with the Angels and it didn’t go well which has been the case throughout his career. He has never defeated the A’s, going 0-4 with a 6.29 ERA in seven career starts. Oakland remains hot and adds another win to the list. Play Oakland A’s One Unit
=====================
Scott Spritzer
Free Pick For TodaySport: Major League Baseball Picks
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers on May 3, 2006 8:05PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: I'm playing the Brewers on Wednesday with Bush facing Schmidt. Bush is off to a fantastic start at Miller Park, sporting a 2-0 record with a red-hot 0.56 ERA. Meanwhile, Jason Schmidt has been ripped on the road thus far, going 0-2 with a 4.95. And, the Brewers hold the advantage in a couple of key categories. They're the 8th best hitting team in the Majors, while SFO ranks 15th. Also, Milwaukee owns the 16th best pen, not outstanding, but much better than the Giants who are struggling in relief with the 2nd worst bullpen in MLB. The Brew crew is off to a 10-5 start at home and we'll take them to hand the Giants their 4th straight defeat. Milwaukee on Wednesday. Thanks! Good Luck! Scott.
===================================
Tom Stryker
Free Pick For TodaySport: National Basketball Assoc.
Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons on May 3, 2006 6:00PM
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
Reason: A veteran team like Detroit knows how important rest is at this stage of the playoffs. With a victory tonight, the Pistons can close out the Bucks and catch a breather.
All the numbers point to a Detroit victory here. Take a look. Since the start of the 2003 playoffs, the Pistons are a solid 26-10 SU And 23-11-1 ATS at home in post season play including 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in the first round. Also, since '03, No. 1 seeds at home in the first round own a solid 18-2 SU and 13-6-1 ATS record. (San Antonio result from last night is not included.) Finally, as a playoff guest, Milwaukee is just 5-12 SU and 6-9-2 ATS.
The Pistons can smell blood and they'll go for the jugular. Take DETROIT. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
=====================================
=====================
Ken Angland
Division game of the Week- Astros
======================
Bluegrass SportsWire -
Cubs
=========
Rocketman Sports
Colorado Rockies
========================
Mike Rose
Blue Jays / Red Sox UNDER 9
======================
Professional Handicapping
3* Nationals
================
Dave Malinsky
Free Pick For TodaySport: Major League Baseball Picks
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox on May 3, 2006 7:05PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: We were heading to the window with the Yankees as an underdog against Josh Beckett last night, but it did not really rain on our parade – we might have an even better setting here.
We played a 4* on Roy Halladay as a home favorite over these Red Sox 12 days ago and got rewarded with a ridiculously easy 8-1 rout. Now the edges are even bigger from a price perspective based on tonight’s real circumstances. The betting markets are not even coming close to appreciating the offensive gap between these teams. Prior to last night the Red Sox had played two more games than the Blue Jays, yet trailed the head-to-head comparison by 20 runs, 25 hits, 10 home runs and four stolen bases, while striking out 51 more times. There is also no “big bully†advantage to the Red Sox from a psychological standpoint – the Blue Jays have gone 15-9 in this series the past two seasons, out-scoring Boston by 25 runs, and they have taken nine of 15 here in Fenway. So with that out of the way, we can get to the battle of the pitcher’s, and the gap is also much wider than anyone seems to appreciate.
At 3-1/2.84 Roy Halladay is not only the front-runner for the Cy Young in the A.L., but also the cornerstone for the Toronto playoff run. We have seen that in his last two starts, when they dominated these Sox and the Yankees by a 15-3 count. That really matters in terms of setting a tone for the season. And what matters to us is Halladay’s form. While the base numbers are obviously good, we like the fact that he is putting the ball exactly where he wants it – over the plate and low in the strike zone. He has only walked four batters in 25 innings, despite the fact that the Red Sox and Yankees lead the Major’s in receiving walks, and there have been 47 ground ball outs vs. only 14 fly outs.
Meanwhile here was our take on Beckett prior to last night’s rain – “Beckett got off to a sensational start in his A.L. debut this season, but it turned south in the worst psychological way for a pitcher. Two starts back he entered the 8th inning at Toronto with a 3-0/1.61 baseline, and a big lead on the field. In the last four innings, that ERA has jumped all the way to 4.50, and the Red Sox have lost twice. That big lead vs. the Blue Jays did not last. And there were no flukes falling in for hits anywhere – Beckett got tagged for five home runs in that span. Now he takes on all of that Yankee power with the Green Monster in left, and his bruised psyche is ripe to be exploited.â€
Change Yankee power to Blue Jay power and the fit might even be better, especially as the Toronto lineup gets a second look. Wrong price here for the far better team and far better pitcher.
===============================
Capper: Brad Rosenberg
Date: Wednesday May 3, 2006
Sport: MLB
Game: Yankees vs Tampa Bay
Prediction: Yankees-1.5(-110)
Capper: Champ Taylor
Date:Wednesday May 3, 2006
Sport: NBA
Game: Detroit vs Milwaukee
Prediction: Detroit-12
Capper: Billy Cadano
Date: Wednesday May 3, 2006
Sport: NBA
Game: Cleveland vs Washington
Prediction: Cleveland-5.5
Capper: Billy Cadano Jr.
Date: Wednesday May 3, 2006
Sport:MLB
Game: San Diego vs La Dodgers
Prediction: La Dodgers-111
===================
Rocketman Sports -
1*Arizona+110 (Listed)
=======================
Dimeplayers
NBA "Money Play" for Wednesday 5 - 3 - 06
-------------------------------------------------------
Under 193.5 (-110)
Washington Wizards@Cleveland Cavaliers
===================
Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh pushed the total yesterday in an eight-run explosion at Wrigley Field. It still is working on a run of five straight unders as it moves into a night contest at Shea tonight versus the Mets. Under once again?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Popgun Pirates broke a streak of 11 straight games scoring three runs or less yesterday in Chicago. They don't figure to get much vs. Pedro & the Mets at night at Shea. The Mets have gone under in 7-of-12 at home, scoring four or less in their last five. PITTSBURGH is 27-9 UNDER in road games vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997 and 54-30 UNDER in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) since 1997. The NY METS are 43-21 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons.
Play on: Under
==================
factsman
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WEDNESDAY OVER LIKE ROVER
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I NORMALLY WONT GIVE out A PLAY WHEN I ONLY HAVE 2 ON THE FACTS CARD
BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE STAGGERING AND WE SHOULD ALL get on WITH THIS ONE
ORIOLES-TEXAS IN ARLINGTON THE TOTAL IS 10.5
FACTS
TEXAS COMING OFF THERE ROAD TRIP HAVE SCORED LESS THEN 6 RUNS ONLY ONCE IN THERE LAST 5 GAMES. A GAME THEY STILL WON
THE ORIOLES THE LAST 2 GAMES THE BATS HAVE AWAKEN AVERAGING 8 RUNS A GAME.
THE ORIOLES LOVE HITTING IN THIS PARK
O'S PITCHER DANNY CABRERA OBVIOUSLY DOESNT LIKE SEEING THE RANGERS WITH A ERA OF 8.16 AND HAVING TO PITCH IN TEXAS AT NIGHT WHERE U CAN ADD ANOTHER 2 RUNS PER TEAM MAKES IT WORSE
NOW THIS DOESNT MAKE TEXAS A LOCK TO WIN THIS...USING 5 PITCHERS LAST NIGHT IN A BULL PEN THAT IS VERY OVER USED THIN AND TIRED...........THE ORIOLES SHOULD MATCH RUN FOR RUN HERE
REGARDLESS OF WHO WINS THIS GAME
4 BALLS MINIMUM LEAVE THE YARD IN THE HOT AIR TEXAS JET STREAM
AND U GUYS WILL SEE 13 RUNS OR MORE IN THIS BADBOY
OVER LIKE ROVER
see i can do write ups too. I HATE DOING THEM CAUSE IM LAZY
BUT THIS ONE IS TOO TOO EASY
OVER LIKE ROVER
U BET IT
ILL SWEAT IT
AND NEVER FORGET IT
FACTS
Mike Lineback
Pistons Under
======================
Joe Gavazzi
5%bucks
3%wizards
3%under Bucks
===================
Dr Bob
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2 Star Selection
**Milwaukee (+12) over DETROIT
03:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 503
Detroit tends to relax with a big lead, as you saw in game 2 when a 20 point lead turned into an 11 point win as an 11 ½ point favorite. As a result of their tendency to relax the Pistons are just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite of more than 9 points. Playoff favorites of 10 points or more that are coming off a win in the series are just 14-32-2 ATS over the years, including 0-2 ATS in this year's playoffs (San Antonio and Detroit both in game 2). My ratings favor Detroit by 12 ½ points but the home-road number is 11 ½ points. I'll take Milwaukee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more and a Strong Opinion at +11 ½ or +11. The first 4 games in this series have averaged 202 points, which is much higher than the game 1 posted total of 184 points. The reason for the higher than expected scoring is the efficiency of each team (points per possession) rather than the pace of the games, since the possessions per game in this series are actually slightly lower than my math model projected. I expect the points per possession numbers to be more in line with expectations and that would yield a fair total of 189 points. I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 193 points or higher and a regular opinion at 192 ½ or 192.
2 Star Selection
**CLEVELAND (-5) over Washington
05:35 PM Pacific - Rotation 502
This series has gone back and forth and it's now the Cavaliers' turn to win after the Wizards came from behind to win game 4 and even this series. Washington managed to win game 2 here in Cleveland after losing game 1, but the Wizards are still just 12-19-1 ATS on the road when not getting at least 6 points, including 9-17-1 ATS against a rested opponent. Washington has also lost more than half of their road games this season by 5 points or more against an average schedule of teams. Cleveland is a better than average team and the Cavaliers have won 65% of their home games (with LeBron James playing) by 5 points or more, which makes their likelihood of winning by 5 points or more in this game pretty high. The Cavs are also 15-5 ATS at home (with LeBron James playing) when not favored by 7 points or more and they apply to a solid 61-31 ATS playoff home bounce-back situation. My ratings favor Cleveland by 6.3 points (with a total of 194 points) and I'll take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.
===================================
Sebastians
NBA:
10* Cavaliers
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jim Hurley
NBA:
Washington
Milwaukee/Detroit UNDER
MLB:
COLORADO
BALTIMORE
===================
Docs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Doc Sports
NBA Picks:
2 Unit Play- Take Cleveland +5.5 over Washington
1 Unit Play- Take Detroit -6.5 over Milwaukee first half
Baseball Picks:
1 1/2 Unit Play- Take Chicago -1.5 RL over Seattle
1 Unit Play- Take St Louis +140 over Houston
1 Unit play- Take Chicago +125 over Arizona
================================
VIP Handicapping Picks
Pro Basketball:
2 Units on Detroit Pistons U 193½ -110
Baseball:
2 Units on Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +180 (J. Schmidt, D. Bush)
2 Units on Atlanta Braves +102 (J. Smoltz, B. Myers)
2 Units on Colorado Rockies -108 (B. Claussen, J. Francis)
2 Units on San Diego Padres +106 (C. Young, J. Seo)
======================================
MTI
MTI ( Killer Sports ) has a 5* on Detroit tonight in The NBA
====================================
Coleman
NBA:
4* milwaukee/detroit under 194.5
3* washington wizards +5.5
MLB:
4* chicago cubs (maddux -130)
3* san francisco (schmidt +110)
3* florida marlins under 8.5
===================================
Gavazzi Baseball
3%padres
3%blue Jays
2%devil Rays
====================================
Joe Gavazzi's Private Players of Pittsburgh
(5*) Milwaukee Bucks
(3*) Washington Wizards
(3*) Detroit/Milwaukee Under
MLB
3* San Diego
3* Toronto
2* Tampa Bay
====================================
LT's Lock
Todays Selection: The Mighty Ducks +155
This year's record: 235-170-9
Current streak: 1 win
======================================
Today's Free Selection is Provided by: Rob Veno Sports
Game: Cleveland v. Washington
Selection: Cleveland Under 193.5
Recent history of this series has seen games played here in Cleveland lean heavily toward the under as 7 of the last 9 have gone that way. Expect that number to climb to 8 of 10 here as the intensity level in game five of a playoff series tied at 2-2 tends to reach a new level. That higher level tilts toward the defensive end in these situations as teams realize the importance of this swing game and they've also had 4 games now to see eachother's offensive tendencies. Figure defensive stops to be a focus of both sides in this contest and also look for each to make a conscious effort in taking away transition points. Wizards have displayed a previously unseen committment to defense in this series as they've limited Cleveland 43.7% field goal shooting or less in 3 of the 4 games thus far. Overall, series percentages from the floor have been less than stellar for each as Washington has shot 42.6% and the Cavs 42.4%. This contest is likely to be close after 3 quarters and if that's the case, the 4th will probably be 12 minutes of half court grinding, defensive style basketball which lends itself toward the under. Excessive free throw attempts the only concern here but the charity strip has seen 63 atempts per game in this series and despite that high number, 3 of the 4 games have stayed below this total. Game appears headed for the 183-188 range making it another under. Recommendation: UNDER