Boston (Lowe) @ Tampa Bay (Wilson)
Call me crazy but I am playing the Devil Rays here I see allot of value in them and I will give you a few reasons.
Boston sends Derek Lowe to the mound who is one of my favorite pitchers and it is hard for me to bet against him but he has been in a funk in his last 4 starts he is 1-2 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.32. It is true that the Red Sox are 4-0 when he pitches against Tampa but he is 2-0 with two no decisions. In his last start in Tampa this year he gave up 3 earned runs in 7 innings of work in a 7-5 Boston win.
Tampa counters with Paul Wilson who has pitched alright against the Red Sox with a 2-2 record and an ERA of 3.60 he has one start against them this year in Boston going 7 innings givng up 3 earned runs. In his last start at home he held the Mariners to just 1 earned run in 7 innings of work.
I could go over the offensive numbers but they favor Boston so I will skip them. Although Boston has played well on the road they have slipped lately going just 2-4 in thier last 6 gmaes on the road while the Devil Rays have played well lately against two of the better teams in the AL west (Seattle and Oakland) and we get another advantage with the bullpen as the Boston pen is sporting an ERA of 6.20 in thier last 3 games while the Tampa pen has an ERA of 3.24 in their last 3. Add in that a good friend of mine that tracks trends says that the Rays fall into a trend tonight that is 24-9 over the last 5 years and I will play the Rays, I have seen stranger things happen this year so I will play the home dog at a good price.
Playing Tampa Bay +222