Week 2 of College Football Opens Window For Totals Betting
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
Miami's thrilling 38-34 victory over Florida State put an exclamation point on an opening weekend of college football that was otherwise filled with plenty of offensive question marks.
Remember, the weekend began with South Carolina grinding out a 7-3 win at North Carolina State in a game that had more punts than points. And Saturday night featured BYU's victory over Oklahoma, a game that you could have doubled the 14-13 final score and still come nowhere near the total of 64.5 points - with a little help from Sam Bradford's injury.
Offenses have a tendency to stumble out of the gate in college football. Schools don't have the luxury of a preseason to work out the kinks and often bite off more than they can chew in scheduling their opener. The combined over/under count for Week 1 of the college football season was 17-22-1 in lined games.
That has an impact on totals, which over the last four years have seen a dramatic jump from Week 1 to Week 2. Bookmakers say they are aware of the trend, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
"This is something we have talked about and are aware of it," said Jay Kornegay, the Executive Director of the Race and Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton. "I believe the numbers that are set include this adjustment."
But do they?
Average final scores have jumped a minimum of two points from Week 1 to Week 2 over the last four years, with a stratospheric seven-point leap from 49 to 56 in 2007.
Over the same period, the average total set by bookmakers has risen less than a point from Week 1 to Week 2. A year ago, the average total actually dropped more than two points, from 52.512 to 50.313.
"There is real merit to the notion that offenses get better in the second week," said expert handicapper David Malinsky. "Because there are no preseason games, getting a real sense of rhythm and timing can be difficult, and working against your teammates in practice every day does not always create the ideal scenarios for development. Because of that, we also tend to see more conservative game plans for the openers, and once the offenses have had a chance to work out some of the kinks, the coaches are then able to go deeper into the playbook."
There is a window open for totals players in Week 2, when many schools iron out the wrinkles in their schemes or take an intentional step back in the quality of their opponent.
"The main reason that you see a spike upward in college football totals is that most BCS-eligible teams intentionally schedule their weakest opponent for their second game of the season," said Michael Perry, an oddsmaker for Logans.com.
"This is a tune-up game if you will, where teams can work on fixing any problems they had in their initial game of the season," Perry added.
Of the four teams mentioned above, three are facing much less of a challenge this week. Oklahoma and North Carolina State are hosting FCS schools Idaho State and Murray State, while BYU is visiting Tulane, where the total is 54.
Other schools looking for a jump-start against a weaker foe are Maryland, which took a 52-13 pounding at California and is hosting James Madison, and Rutgers, which was thrashed 47-15 by Cincinnati and is hosting Howard. But those games are not on the board.
There are a handful of schools on the board using the schedule blueprint Perry discussed that will have a chance to get their offenses in gear and pile up points this week. Like Kornegay, he believes the books are onto the trend.
"Oddsmakers who set these lines do a good enough job to tighten these totals," he said. "There are a very small amount of games on the college board that totals move more than 3-4 points."
In addition to the BYU-Tulane tussle, here are a few more games where at least one team struggled to score in its opener. Some schools are facing lesser foes while others are moving into conference play.
Colorado at Toledo (59.5): Here's a novel approach - lose your rivalry game and give ground in recruiting, then play Friday night, when the kids you are recruiting also are playing and can't see how bad you are. The Buffs scored a gimme TD in their 23-17 loss to Colorado State and hope to pick it up against the Rockets, who gave up 52 points to Purdue. This game opened at 53 and has been bet up more than a touchdown.
Kansas State at UL Lafayette (58.5): The Wildcats, who perennially play one of the most embarrassing early-season schedules of any BCS school, scored all their points in the second quarter of a lackluster 21-17 home win over Massachusetts. This week's total opened as high as 64 at some books.
Hawaii at Washington State (50.5): The Cougars looked awful in a 39-13 Pac-10 home loss to Stanford and will try to find a rhythm vs. the Rainbow Warriors, who traditionally do not play as well on the mainland.
Iowa at Iowa State (45.5): The Hawkeyes trailed Northern Iowa by 10 points in the second half before rallying for a 17-16 win that required two blocked field goals in the final 10 seconds. Iowa State beat North Dakota State in its opener but allowed at least 34 points in eight of its final nine games a season ago.
TCU at Virginia (41.5): The Cavaliers are doing things backward. They began with an inexcusable 26-14 home loss to William & Mary in which they had seven turnovers. This week, they host ranked foe TCU, which is playing its season opener but allowed more than 16 points just once last season.
South Carolina at Georgia (38): The total has been bet down from an open of 40 at some books as both teams sputtered in their openers despite having offensively innovative coaches. The Bulldogs are breaking in quarterback Joe Cox, who threw as many passes in a 24-10 loss at Oklahoma State as he did in the last two seasons. These teams annually meet early in the season and have played under the total 10 straight times