Week 4 NFL POWER SYSTEMS
This week we offer 2 FREE POWER SYSTEMS that nicely complement each other for the same game, as we examine large home underdogs and underdogs off a game as a large dog.
The first POWER SYSTEM is included in this week's NFL POWERePORT and taken from Section 5 of PRO INFO SPORTS 2006 POWER SYSTEM e-CYCLOPEDIA, which is devoted exclusively to teams with "perfect" records. While some of the systems investigate undefeated teams in various situations, we also look at winless teams. Of course, these will be among the league's worst teams, but they can hold good value under the right circumstances. In a simple but strong situation, our database research reveals that winless home underdogs of 1-2 TDs have been very competitive over the past 10+ years. Specifically,
From Game 3 on, play ON a winless home underdog of 7-14 points with a TOTAL of 34½-48 points.
By eliminating games with a very high or very low TOTAL, we avoid contests in which an extreme offensive or defensive disparity exists. With a very low O/U number, the home underdog may be facing such a strong defense that they simply won't be able to mount anything resembling an offense. With a very high TOTAL, the home dog may be going up against a high-powered offense that they simply can't keep up with. The only other requirement is that the winless team have at least 2 games under its belt. This ensures the public will be avoiding the team and providing maximum line value, as the longer a team goes without its first win of the season, the more desperate it will become to get one.
The qualifying teams are 19-0-2 ATS since 1995, covering the spread by nearly 11 points a game on average. In fact, despite being an underdog of at least a TD, these teams have won nearly half of the games outright, going 10-11 SU, including winning the last 4 straight.
This week, the Tennessee Titans are a 9’ - 10-point home underdog and active for this NFL POWER SYSTEM. We do note that after system wins in every year from 1995 through 2003, there's been a bit of a drought with no qualifying games in 2004 or 2005. Some dynamics have changed since then, and some underdogs no longer cover the spread consistently in some situations which they did prior to 2004; therefore, we provide another POWER SYSTEM that is very current and "hot" and applies here.
In this recently developed situation that is included Section 7 (Underdogs) of the 2006 e-CYCLOPEDIA, we find that Sunday dogs have been terrific at beating the spread when coming off a loss as a underdog of at least a TD if they were not trailing by a TD or more going into the 4th quarter. This means a big underdog hung tough for at least 3 quarters in the previous game and is back in the underdog role. No doubt, staying in the previous game well into the 2nd half has provided the team with some needed confidence for its next outing. The simple parameters are:
Play ON a Sunday underdog off a SU loss as an underdog of 7+ points not outscored by 7+ points after 3 quarters in their last game.
These teams are 14-0 ATS since late 2004, covering the spread by more than a TD per game on average. Last week, the Titans were double-digit underdogs at Miami, but were in the game the entire way, and had the score tied at 10-10 going into the 4th quarter. They ultimately lost 13-10. Over the past couple of seasons some of the NFL's worst teams have qualified for this POWER SYSTEM, but all have beat the spread. Houston has covered FOUR times, Cleveland twice, and San Francisco did it on consecutive Sundays last year. Now, it's active for the first time in 2006.
The Play ON team for BOTH NFL POWER SYSTEMS this week is Tennessee.