West Virginia - Great team or easy conference?
November 30th, 2007
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - In a season filled with one upset after another, I can guarantee that West Virginia will not be beaten by Pittsburgh in the 100th renewal of the Backyard Brawl. You can mark it down.
Given that, it's fair to say the Mountaineers are well on their way to the BCS Championship, and at the preseason odds of 8-1 odds, no one will question their validity in the big game.
But how legitimate are they? Finding an answer to that question is the key in figuring out how well they will do vs. either Missouri or Ohio State. One area to start is to go through conference records to see how well the Big East stacks up against the other five BCS leagues.
The Big East finished 23-11 in its non-conference lined games with a winning percentage of 68%. Not bad considering it's the same percentage as the Pac-10, not counting Washington's upcoming matchup with Hawaii. The ACC ended its season in sixth and last place at 64% with a 27-15 record, and despite three teams in the Top 10, the Big 12 had just a 29-12 mark for a winning percentage only slightly better at 71%.
For the record, the Big Ten was number one at 81% with its 29-7 record and the SEC finished second with an 80% mark at 31-8.
Since some conferences have easier schedules than others, it's important to see how each fared against the crme de la crme. What's most astounding is the fact that five of the six leagues finished with final winning percentages between 46% and 56%. Only one, the Pac-10, was higher than 60% at 5-3. This shows how evenly matched the conferences really were, a stark contrast from last year when only two of the six ended the regular season between 30% and 59%.
Based on the above numbers, it's certainly valid that a team from the Big East deserves to be in the championship game, and the Mountaineers have done something only one other team (Hawaii) has done and that's not lose a game in October and November. For that, they deserve to play for the crown.
What about their opponent? Missouri must defeat Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game in San Antonio to gain entry into the BCS Championship. After knocking off Kansas, it might be too tough a task to come right back against another quality opponent. If the Tigers can pull it off, they are definitely deserving of a spot vs. West Virginia.
The only other team with a chance is Ohio State. It would be extremely ironic if the Buckeyes make it all the way after their schedule has been completed. Many folks felt Michigan got shafted last year when the Wolverines did not have a chance to improve their ranking due to the fact the conference doesn't play a championship game.
Nonetheless, each season plays out differently, and this year has been one for the ages. Never in the history of the BCS has there been a season with so many upsets, and it would be a strange twist if a team that lost at home in week 11 heads to the title game. That would be the case if Missouri loses to Oklahoma.
THE NEW TOP 10 AND LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
West Virginia has been in the top four in every single one of my Top 10 rankings, and number one since October 21. They remain at that spot for the sixth consecutive week after annihilating Connecticut last Saturday, 66-21. Not only are the Mountaineers all alone at the top, they enjoy the highest advantage over a second-ranked club since LSU had a three-point lead over Oklahoma back in week three. In addition, both the BCS and the AP Polls have the same 10 teams as my power numbers.
The newest Top 10 looks like this:
1) West Virginia, 106.5; 2) USC, 103.5; 3) Missouri, 103; 4-T) Ohio State, Oklahoma and Florida, 102.5; 7) Kansas, 101; 8-T) LSU and Virginia Tech, 100; 10) Georgia, 97
Last week was a 3-3 week for yours truly keeping the record two games below .500 at 46-48-2. There aren't too many contests on the schedule to choose from, but a few do stand out.
Central Michigan meets up with Miami-Ohio for the MAC championship game at Ford Field in Detroit and the crowd will certainly favor the Chippewas, who are looking for their second straight conference title. A lot of folks are talking up the RedHawks' chances because they need a win to secure a bowl bid, however, those people are forgetting the most important aspect of the game and that is the fact that Central Mich is a much better team.
The Chippewas were in the same position last year, favored by three points over Ohio, the champions from the East. Anyone remember what happened? The Bobcats were blown away 31-10 and got outgained 457-224 in the process.
This year's game could be even worse. Ohio was 7-1 in conference play, 9-3 overall heading into that contest. Miami is just a .500 team at 6-6 and might not even be in this game if it had played the normal eight-game MAC schedule. Every other team from the East ended with eight games and the RedHawks didn't even win their division outright. Bowling Green and Miami finished with the same 4-2 division record, but the 'Hawks defeated the Falcons at home to secure the date with Central Mich.
Take the Chippewas by double digits.
I wrote earlier that Hawaii is the only club besides West Virginia not to lose a game the last two months. The Warriors have actually fared much better, going undefeated the entire season, the only FBS school to do so this year. They wrapped up an 8-0 WAC record with an impressive victory over Boise State last Friday.
Colt Brennan was outstanding, completing 40-of-53 passes for 495 yards and five touchdowns, including two in the final four minutes of the third quarter to give Hawaii the lead for good. In order to remain unbeaten, the Warriors must defeat Washington, a game that will be tougher than they might expect, especially coming off the win over Boise.
Hawaii's all-time record against the Pac-10 is not pretty at 12-33 and its win over Arizona State in last year's Hawaii Bowl was the school's only victory over the conference this decade. It also will be hard to come right back after a huge emotional win against an arch-rival and be on top of their game the following week as a two-touchdown favorite.
Washington's athletes will be the most explosive Hawaii has faced all season long. The Huskies also have acquitted themselves very well against the toughest schedule in the country. They don't have many wins to show for their efforts, but they did defeat California and Boise State, and lost by just three to USC. If they don't get too caught up in the Hawaii sand and sun, look for them to keep this one within single digits.
Take Washington and the points.
LSU is in the midst of turmoil. Not only did the Tigers lose to Arkansas at home last week, knocking them out of the national title picture, their coach is most likely on his way out the door heading to Michigan.
With this as the backdrop, there is no way the team will be focused to defeat Tennessee in the SEC championship game. Besides, how many times since week four have the Tigers covered a game? The answer is one. Since September 22, they have lost only two games but are 1-7-1 ATS, 0-6-1 in conference play.
The Volunteers won the tiebreaker with Georgia due to their 35-14 win over the Bulldogs in early October and will represent the East vs. LSU. Unlike the Tigers, they have lost just one game since September 22 and are 7-2 ATS and 5-2 in the SEC. There aren't many teams hotter than the Vols, and they'll continue their dominance with another victory.
Take Tennessee plus the points.
Two other plays are USC minus the points vs. UCLA and North Texas minus the points at Florida International.