Where to find the edge in Saturday’s games
Covers.com
Betting on college football is no walk in the park.
Consider the number of programs that require research, the multitude of individual matchups that demand long deliberation, and the surplus of variables that crop up on any given Saturday.
It’s overwhelming, really.
Well, we have taken care of all the research for you and located the many mismatches that can give bettors a major edge. Here are this week’s biggest:
Michigan running back Mike Hart vs. Wisconsin’s rush defense
Michigan is still in the hunt for the Big 10 crown thanks to star running back Mike Hart’s complete and utter dominance versus opposing rush defenses.
The senior running back has compiled more than 1,100 rushing yards with 14 touchdowns in eight outings this season. That’s an average of more than 140 rushing yards per contest. He ran for more than 100 yards on a meager 15 carries against a tough Michigan State defense last Saturday after missing his team’s previous two contests with a nagging right high ankle sprain.
The Badgers allowed Ohio State running back Chris Wells more than 160 yards with three touchdowns on the ground in a 38-17 loss to the Buckeyes last Saturday. Wisconsin is allowing opponents more than 145 rushing yards per contest and more than four yards per carry this season.
Michigan State defensive lineman Jonal Saint-Dic vs. Purdue’s offensive line
Michigan State defensive lineman Jonal Saint-Dic has eight forced fumbles in 10 outings this season, a rate of nearly one a game.
Saint-Dic forced seven fumbles in his first seven contests. MSU was 5-2 over that span. When he forced just a single fumble in his following three contests, his team went on a three-game losing streak.
Two of the fumbles forced by the senior defensive lineman this season led to touchdowns: once in a 24-17 loss to the top-ranked Buckeyes and the other a week earlier in a 52-27 victory over Indiana.
Meanwhile the Boilmakers have lost 10 fumbles this season, including one in their painful 26-19 loss to Penn State last Saturday. Purdue has also thrown eight interceptions, resulting in 18 total turnovers this season.
Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell vs. Texas’ secondary
Red Raiders star quarterback Graham Harrell leads college football’s most potent aerial attack against a struggling Longhorns defense.
Harrell leads the nation with more than 4,400 passing yards and 38 touchdowns this season and is compiling more than 440 yards per game. That yardage is nearly 40 yards more than second-ranked quarterback Colt Brennan’s average. Harrell led the Red Raiders to a 38-7 win over Baylor last Saturday, passing for more than 400 yards with three touchdowns. The top-ranked junior also passed for more than 500 yards in last season’s 35-31 loss to the Longhorns.
The Longhorns are surrendering more than 245 passing yards per contest and have registered just 10 sacks and 11 interceptions this season. They have also allowed more than 1,100 offensive yards in their last two victories over Nebraska and Oklahoma State.
Kansas State wide receiver Jordy Nelson vs. Nebraska’s secondary
Wildcats wide receiver Jordy Nelson is the most explosive receiver in college football and has the numbers to back it up.
Nelson ranks second in the country with more than 1,200 receiving yards. The senior caught 14 passes for more than 200 yards in the Wildcats’ 31-20 loss to Iowa State last Saturday. Nelson has also scored six touchdowns in his last five outings – eight over the whole season – and recorded more than 100 receiving yards with a touchdown in the Wildcats’ 30-24 loss to then 24th-ranked Kansas in October.
“Jordy Nelson is one of the top four or five receivers I've seen play in this league,” Kansas coach Mark Mangino told reporters. “He has all the tools you want.”
Nelson will face a Cornhuskers team that is allowing more than 235 receiving yards per contest with 16 receiving touchdowns this season. Nebraska gave up more than 350 passing yards with six touchdowns in an embarrassing 76-39 loss to Kansas last Saturday. The program has a meager eight interceptions this season – two at the hands of cornerback Courtney Grixby.
Missouri’s third-down offense vs. Texas A&M’s third-down defense
The Tigers have been performing in clutch situations all season due to the consistent leadership of junior quarterback Chase Daniel.
The Tigers have converted on more than 50 percent of their third-down conversion attempts this season and were an astounding 10-for-17 (59 percent) in their 55-10 win over Colorado last Saturday. The Tigers are also the eighth-ranked scoring program in the country this season with more than 40 points per contest.
Texas A&M is permitting its opponents to convert more than 46 percent of their third-down conversion attempts. They also allowed Oklahoma State to convert on 57 percent of its attempts en route to an embarrassing 42-14 loss last Saturday.
UCLA cornerbacks Brown and Vernon vs. Arizona State’s pass offense
The Bruins are barely keeping their heads above water in the Pac-10 standings after consecutive losses to Washington State and Arizona. They will need a huge performance from cornerbacks Trey Brown and Alterraun Vernon to contain the talented Sun Devils.
Brown is the top-ranked cornerback in college football this season with 17 defended passes and three interceptions. Vernon is also among the top-10 cornerbacks in the nation this campaign with 13 defended passes and three interceptions.
The Bruins defenders could cause problems for Arizona State quarterback Rudy Carpenter and leading receiver Michael Jones. Jones is averaging less than 70 receiving yards per game this season and Carpenter has thrown five of his eight interceptions in his last five outings