On the Mark: Pats flat-out dominant
FOXSports.com
In the third quarter of the Patriots' 56-10 rout of the Buffalo Bills, the press boss at Ralph Wilson Stadium became still with surprise when Tom Brady threw an incomplete pass. Even more shocking: One of the Bills' linebackers actually knocked him down.
With the bookmakers giving Buffalo 16.5 points, the Bills (along with the Dolphins in Week 7) were said to be the NFL's biggest home-field underdog since 1992. Still, that number proved 30 points light — and the Bills didn't even play that badly.
Jerry Sullivan, a columnist for The Buffalo News, was beside himself. "The Bills lose by 46 at home and I can't even rip them," he said. "What the hell's going on here?"
What's going on is an anomaly, something unlike anything in modern professional football. And even people like me, guys who can't stand Bill Belichick, have to admit a keen interest in New England. It's almost impossible not to watch the Patriots, as you've never watched anything quite like them before.
The Patriots are more than undefeated. They're beating teams by an average of 25.4 points a game, a figure that violates the artful science of bookmakers. According to the NFL's Randall Liu, only one team in the history of professional football team exceeded this margin. The 1942 Chicago Bears, playing in a league whose ranks were decimated by the World War II, outscored opponents by an average of 26.5 points a game. (That Bears team, as it happened, went 11-0, only to lose 14-6 to Washington in the championship game.) Two other teams averaged better than 20-point differentials: the 1941 Bears (22.6) and the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans (20.6).
But again, that was all before the advent of facemasks. In the modern era, there is no precedent for what the Patriots are doing. Consider the undefeated Miami Dolphins of 1972. Their regular-season margin of victory was 15.2. After the Super Bowl, it was 13.6. By contrast, the 2007 Patriots aren't just beating the odds. They're beating the oddsmakers, the only really smart guys in sports.
"It's been tough with the Patriots," said Sean Van Patten, an oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a much-respected outfit that furnishes opening lines for most of the Nevada casinos. "Every week we've raised the numbers."
And every week, it seems, the Patriots raise them some more. At this point, the parlay sheets come with two seemingly free bets: New England and the over. Even the smart-money types who typically bet the underdogs are staying away from Pats.
Of course, this run has generated some interesting propositions. Going into Week 7, the prospect of an undefeated season was considered unlikely. A $100 bet would get you $270. Now those odds have all but turned upside down. The Pats are minus-160 to go undefeated, meaning you have to bet $160 to win $100.
For the record, they're giving 18 points against the Eagles this Sunday, 22 if Donovan McNabb doesn't play. Another point of interest: they're 24.5-point favorites against Miami next month. Part of the reason, Van Patten said, is Don Shula, coach of the '72 Dolphins, who recently suggested that Belichick's team might deserve an asterisk on account of Spygate.
So disregard coaches and players who say it's not personal. It's very personal, and none more so than the Patriots' date with the Jets Dec. 16 in Foxborough. The line is already 22, a number owing much to the fact that the Spygate whistle-blower was Jets coach Eric Mangini, a former Belichick protege.
"We definitely factor that in," said Van Patten, "Belichick wants to kill these guys. He'll put up 100 if he can."
It'll be fun watching him try. In the meantime, as no one figures the Patriots to actually lose a game, the sports books might want to come up with some new prop bets. For instance, at this point, it should be even money as to whether Brady gets his uniform dirty.
PATRIOTS SPREAD DESTRUCTION ACROSS BETTING LINES
November 21, 2007 -- When the Eagles travel to Foxboro as 22-point underdogs to play the Patriots Sunday, they will be the biggest underdog since the 2001 Rams whipped the Panthers 48-14 as 20-point favorites, according to The Gold Sheet in Los Angeles.
And if the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady steamroller continues, when the Jets travel to New England Dec. 16, they will likely be the biggest underdogs in NFL history.
When the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers played the defending champion Steelers in 1976, they were 24-point dogs, and lost 42-0.
As of right now, not factoring in injuries or unforeseen developments, Eric Mangini's Jets would be 241/2-point underdogs to Bill Belichick's Patriots, in part because of potential Spygate ramifications.
The Patriots-Giants line will be contingent on whether the Patriots are shooting for immortality [a perfect 19-0 season] as they head into the regular-season finale.
Las Vegas has been taking a bath on the mighty Pats this season. “Every week it's a six-figure giveaway on New England," said Robert Walker, Sports Book Director at the MGM Mirage. “It's like one free bet each week."
The Post asked Walker to handicap the rest of the Patriots' schedule as of this moment:
EAGLES at PATRIOTS: Right now the line is 22. “We think it would be 22-ish without [Donovan] McNabb, 191/2, 20 with McNabb," Walker said.
PATRIOTS at RAVENS: 17. “It might be a little higher the way they dismantled Buffalo and if they beat Philly by 40," Walker said.
STEELERS at PATRIOTS: “I would say my first guess would be 141/2, but we might go higher than that - I'm gonna say 16," Walker said. “They've only not covered once [24-20 over Colts as a 51/2, 6-point favorite]. And Pittsburgh has played three miserable games on the road."
JETS at PATRIOTS: “We think that's gonna be 241/2," Walker said. “We think that game will be the biggest spread in the history of the NFL." Because of Spygate? “That's the problem with the Patriots; you've got a great team with a great coach and they got a chip on their shoulder. That's been a lethal combination."
DOLPHINS at PATRIOTS: “We think 24," Walker said. Why would the Jets-Pats line be higher? “The perception is New England may run up the score."
PATRIOTS at GIANTS: “I think the Patriots will be about 13-point favorites," Walker said. “If they're 14-1, the Giants could be favored. They [Pats] got no reason to play everybody." If they're 15-0? “My guess is they would probably be just over 14."
Walker has already hung Super lines on the Patriots [minus 500 to win the AFC and minus 400 to win Super Bowl XLII] versus the NFC representative:
PATRIOTS-COWBOYS: 17. “I think Dallas is to the NFC what New England is to the AFC," Walker said. “At least we know Dallas can score against them."
Other potential Super Bowl matchups:
PATRIOTS-PACKERS: 19.
PATRIOTS-GIANTS: 21.
PATRIOTS-SEAHAWKS: 22.
PATRIOTS-FIELD: 23.
Bigger & bettor
Five biggest point spreads in NFL history:
1976 Steelers -24 over Bucs.
Final: Steelers, 42-0.
1993 49ers -23 over Bengals.
Final: 49ers, 21-8.
1987 49ers -23 over Falcons
(strike game).
Final: 49ers, 25-17.
1975 Raiders -22 over Browns.
Final: Raiders, 38-17.
1977 Cowboys -22 over Bucs.
Final: Cowboys, 23-7.
According to the Gold Sheet, there have been 23 games where the spread was 20 points or more. Only one team favored by 20 or more points lost the game outright - the Bengals 20-17 to the Chargers as 20-point faves in 1974.
www.nypost.com
This might be the week to bet against them. 22 is a lot to cover I don't care who you are.
New England Patriots and the highest betting line of the modern NFL era
When the New England Patriots settled in as 23 1/2 -point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles in Sunday's game in Foxboro, Mass., it was the biggest point spread in an NFL game since at least 1980.
New England, 10-0 straight up and 9-1 against the point spread, opened as a slightly shorter favorite Monday at several Las Vegas sports books, including the Hilton and all Station Casinos properties, after thumping the Buffalo Bills 56-10 Sunday.
The Patriots were quickly bet up to 23 1/2 by gamblers who figure the Pats will essentially be able to name the score against a mediocre Philadelphia team that's 5-5 straight up and against the spread.
Other sports books elected to keep the game "off the board," or unavailable for betting, because of the uncertain status of Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb, who has a swollen thumb and a sprained ankle. McNabb sustained the injuries in Sunday's 17-7 victory against the Miami Dolphins.
Early estimates by oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants had the Eagles 18-point underdogs with McNabb or 22-point underdogs without McNabb. Bettors who made the Patriots 231/2-point favorites are projecting another blowout victory, with or without McNabb in the game.
Las Vegas sports betting analyst R.J. Bell, whose research dates to 1980, proclaimed the Patriots the biggest NFL favorite in the modern era, surpassing the San Francisco 49ers, who were 23-point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 5, 1993. The 49ers won, 21-8.
The second-highest NFL point spread before this week, according to Bell's research, came when the 49ers were favored by 201/2 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Dec. 19, 1992. The 49ers won, 21-14.
Since 1980, only five NFL games have had a point spread of 20 or more, according to Bell (online at pregame.com). Of more than 6,700 games in Bell's sample, 112 (1.66 percent) had lines of 141/2 points or higher, and five of those 112 underdogs won their games outright.
The biggest underdogs to win the game outright were the Washington Redskins, who beat the Dallas Cowboys 24-17 as 171/2 -point underdogs Dec. 3, 1995.
This year's biggest underdogs were the Bills, plus-161/2 against the Patriots on Sept. 23, a game New England won 38-7. This past Sunday's game closed at 16 at most Las Vegas sports books, although it hit 161/2 at a couple of spots in town.
The early Las Vegas Super Bowl line has the AFC favored by 151/2 points against the NFC, a number that reflects a probable clash between the Patriots and the Cowboys.
If the Patriots reach the Super Bowl and play a lesser NFC team, they could challenge the record for the highest postseason NFL betting line: the 49ers' minus 19 points against the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl 29 on Jan. 29, 1995. The 49ers won and covered, 49-26.
The Patriots are expected to be favored by double digits in each of their remaining regular-season games, according to oddsmakers at the Hilton, who offer early betting on selected NFL games. A possible exception could be their season finale on the road against the Giants, a game that could have playoff implications for New York.
www.lasvegassun.com.
No matter the line, bets keep coming in
FOXBORO - Las Vegas has a humble request: Please stop betting on the Patriots
Sick of getting reamed week after week by gamblers jumping on the Pats no matter how high the line, oddsmakers around the world have taken a new tack - run the number so high, it will scare people away.
That was the message coming from Richard Gardner, head oddsmaker at Bodog, an Antigua-based company that bills itself as the world’s largest offshore sports book, after the Patriots were installed as 23 1/2 -point favorites over the Eagles. That’s the largest spread in a game not involving an expansion team in NFL history.
The only bigger mismatch, according to Bodog, came in 1976, when the Steelers beat the expansion Buccaneers, 42-0, as 27-point favorites.
The lines for the Pats keep getting higher and higher, Gardner said. It’s not so much that the bookmakers don’t think the Pats can cover lines over 20, since they’ve proven all season that they can. The bookmakers are trying to set the line so high it will scare off bettors.
The reasoning for that is clear. The Patriots have covered all but once - their 24-20 victory over the Colts as five-point favorites - and 65 percent of the action has gone on them. The bettors keep betting on the Patriots regardless of the line, Gardner said.
And the Patriots keep doing their part, too.
Gardner believes the Pats will be installed as record 27-point favorites against the Jets on Dec. 16, with the spreads coming down over the final two weeks against the Miami Dolphins [team stats] and New York Giants since the Pats could rest starters.
One thing Gardner won’t do is take the Patriots off the board.
“We’ve never considered not offering a line on the Patriots,” he said. “Upsets do happen and I can assure you we hope for them every week.”
www.bostonherald.com