A handicapper sent this email (in quotes) to his mailing list within the
last year. What he says here is only partially true. But in fact, the sports
books do kick people out and this handicapper's business is partially
dependent on customers thinking the books do not kick you out very easily.
Anyone care to comment on what he wrote here?
He wrote:
"...I've been asked many times by a lot of people what is
happening when you always win at a sportsbook. Can they kick you
out because you always win ?
Well, this is a very good question and I know that you may have
been misinformed about this subject.
Many people will tell you about how the sportsbook make money.
They will tell you that the sportsbook have access to inside
information that nobody else can access and this is why they
know who's going to win every game.
Well, this is simply not true. Odds makers are simply good
statisticians and they know how to work the numbers.
There goal is to set a price which represent the public's
opinion about an event. That's it.
Also, the way they make money is with the juice.
The juice is simply the commission they keep for taking the
bets. That is why when you bet on the spread (basketball or
American football), you will never have odds like 2.00 on both
side but instead you'll see something like 1.91 or 1.93 on
both side depending of the sportsbook.
So, this is the juice.
How do they make money ?
Well, they will simply move the lines ?
Move the lines ?
Yes. As you can see, the odds, the spread or the total are
always moving up or down.
You can see a basketball game where the favorite will be at
–7.5 and then later you'll see the same team at –6.
Same thing for European football. You see the favorite at 1.55
and later it becomes 1.70.
Why ?
Because by moving the lines, they will attract more people on
one side just as they wish to do.
If to many people are betting on one side, the sportsbook will
move the line in order to have more people on the other side,
The result will be more money on the other side and this is what
they want.
In fact they want to have the same amount of money on both
side.
Let's take a look at some numbers.
If the sportsbook get $100,000 of bets on both side on a match
where the odds are 1.93 for each team, here's how they make
money.
They will take the $100,000 from the losers on one side and they
will pay the winners 0.93 X $100,000.
This is $93,000 that they will give back because when these
people risked $100 to win $93 at odds 1.93.
So, they will profit $100,000 - $93,000 = $7,000 pure profit.
Now, if you ask if they will kick you out if you win too often,
you have the answer now.
They never lose money and if they want to make money, they have
to pay the winners to take the money from the losers.
They are never in trouble. They simply move the line. Simple as
that!
By the way. Yes, I heard a story about a guy who was kicked out
of a reputable bookie.
In fact he won more than 3 million dollars in 12 months. So,
honestly who cares after that!
Everybody would like to be kicked out just like him!
So, I hope this is clear enough for you...."
The typical response from an offshore shop is:
"Risk management has determined your wagering patterns to be that NOT of a recreational player.............." blah, blah, no more bonuses, etc.
Could one of the keys here in not being booted out be to find sports books that are not
geared for "recreational players" but rather geared for professional players who wants
to develop a full time income from the sports books?
By the way, thanks Cash and Blade and Hook and others here for your responses. You
guys are very helpful !!! 8)
For example, a guy I know got booted recently betting horses he was getting from a buddy of his who was getting them from another buddy, etc. He was only betting a few bucks on each horse but his betting patterns were the same as probably a few dozen other people. So even though he was probably the smallest bettor of the entire group he was dismissed along all the others.
Is the Sports Books term for the above phenomena "Syndicated Betting" ?... because they will
boot you if they determine you are part of a betting syndicate. This is part of their rules I heard
and everyone is told this when they sign up as it is on the written rules.
I was recently booted out in December from a reputable book based in Costa Rica but have local reps when I was playing Ras' college over/unders. I'm sure you guys know that the line was changing almost instantly when Ras was releasing his plays - well I found an online book where I have a good 45-60 seconds before the line would jump. After 3 days they took my online account and told me that I can only bet through the phone ( I started betting nickels, then jumped to dimes). So my friend and I opened six more accounts to scatter the bets, by the time I put in my second bet on the second account online, all six accounts were frozen and there's a message that says Nice try ###, have your representative call our office. OK, so I didn't have a choice but to call for my bets. I started calling 30 seconds before Ras' play would come out and buy time by asking for different lines until Ras play was released on the computer-I was still beating the lines by a good 30 seconds before they would adjust it- Ras had 5 games that day, so after the third release they cancelled the account and told me that I cannot bet from them anymore because they dont like where my picks are coming from. They paid my winnings but cancelled all of the accounts that my friend referred to them (approx 28-30 accounts). I'm currently betting from an online account where I have 10 year relationship with but I noticed that because of Ras success last couple of years they put a 5-10 second lag on the website everytime I put my bet in and of course I'd get the line at around 3-4pts worse than what Ras has it for.
I think the biggest problem with trying to get down with RAS plays is that they release to close to game time,they need to mix up when they release them since the books seem to know they are going to get them at a certain time rather than no knowing when they will get released.
I would be careful opening accounts in other peoples names. That is one of the cardinal sins of online gambling and if they can prove you are not who is making the bets (which is easier then you think) they are gonna keep all your money. I have seen it happen half a dozen times to the tune of $100,000's.
Just because there is a different name on the account don't be so foolish to think you are getting over on the book. They have complicated software that can track locations. So name, address and phone # don't mean shit to them. If you had an account that was closed and bets come in later from the same location under a different name you are fucked and so is your money.
UD,
These places are in business to make money. If you are taking their money consistently and at an above average clip you are gonna be shown the door. As long as you play by the rules you will be paid but there is no way around the risk management. Every book has it and they are always watching. If you are a smaller bettor and get booted you will be able to bounce around to new places indefinitely without too much trouble but there is a blacklist online just like in Vegas and these guys do share info.
I have stood inside the walls of probably a dozen online sports books on game day and trust me, they don't have multimillion dollar offices by keeping winners around.
I think my funniest boot story was at the old Oasis when they showed me the door cause I bet a MNF game under because of bad weather a few days before gameday,they said I was a wise guy since I knew it was gonna be bad weather.
If God could bet the sports books he would be booted faster than you
can say lightening bolt. Your story makes me madder than a hornet. 😡
These places are in business to make money. If you are taking their money consistently and at an above average clip you are gonna be shown the door.... I have stood inside the walls of probably a dozen online sports books on game day and trust me, they don't have multimillion dollar offices by keeping winners around.
If governments operated by these rules and booted those who were always on the dole just
think how healthy their bottom line would be !!! No more deficits !!! 😉
Thanks everyone for your feedback. I wonder if this should
be moved to the handicapping discussion section so that it
has a chance of remaining more visible to everyone? I think
there is information on this thread that lots of people would
be interested in.
8)
I got more feedback on this from some others. One person told
me that some books will limit your wagers before they show you
the door. Another person told me that his friend opened up his
sports book one day only to find that his account was limited to
$50 bets and no more.
8)
I think it would be a good idea if anyone who had a bad experience with a book, like not being paid or having troubled being paid, would share it with all of us on this site.
That is correct. In most cases you will be cut before booted. The thought is you will boot yourself if you can't bet what you want
I was recently booted out in December from a reputable book based in Costa Rica but have local reps when I was playing Ras' college over/unders. I'm sure you guys know that the line was changing almost instantly when Ras was releasing his plays - well I found an online book where I have a good 45-60 seconds before the line would jump. After 3 days they took my online account and told me that I can only bet through the phone ( I started betting nickels, then jumped to dimes). So my friend and I opened six more accounts to scatter the bets, by the time I put in my second bet on the second account online, all six accounts were frozen and there's a message that says Nice try ###, have your representative call our office. OK, so I didn't have a choice but to call for my bets. I started calling 30 seconds before Ras' play would come out and buy time by asking for different lines until Ras play was released on the computer-I was still beating the lines by a good 30 seconds before they would adjust it- Ras had 5 games that day, so after the third release they cancelled the account and told me that I cannot bet from them anymore because they dont like where my picks are coming from. They paid my winnings but cancelled all of the accounts that my friend referred to them (approx 28-30 accounts). I'm currently betting from an online account where I have 10 year relationship with but I noticed that because of Ras success last couple of years they put a 5-10 second lag on the website everytime I put my bet in and of course I'd get the line at around 3-4pts worse than what Ras has it for.
Who is "RAS"?
right angle sports
thanks C