WISCONSIN (-7.0) 30 Fresno St. 27
07:30 AM Pacific Time Friday, Aug-23
Fresno State starts the post-David Carr era against a vengeful Wisconsin team whom they beat 32-20 on this field last season. Taking the place of Carr, the NFL's #1 draft choice, is Junior QB Jeff Grady. Grady has a good set of receivers to throw to and a good system to work with and I expect the Bulldogs' pass attack to be better than average this season, but considerably below last year's high standards. Wisconsin looks like it has another fine secondary, so the key to success for Fresno State in this game could be their rushing attack. Fresno State was a bit worse than average running the ball last season (4.7 yards per rushing play against teams that combined to allow 5.0 yprp), but the return to health of running back Derrick Ward and 4 returning starters on the offensive line figure to make the Bulldogs a better than average running team this year. Ward missed the last season and a half due to injury, but he ran for 875 yards at an incredible 6.0 ypr in '99 and, while he is not likely to reach those numbers this year, he should be at least as good as Gaines and Levi were last season. I expect Fresno to have success running the football in this game against a Badgers defense that allowed 5.1 yprp last season and returns just 1 starter from the front 7. The departures of first round NFL draft pick DL Wendell Bryant (Big 10 DL of the Year) and LB Nick Griesen (a 5th round draft pick), who combined to account for 34 sacks and tackles for loss last season, will be tough to overcome early in the season. Fresno State's experienced offensive line should win the battle of the trenches against Wisconsin's young defensive front, and an effective rushing attack will take some of the pressure off of Grady in his first start in hostile surroundings.
While Fresno State figures to move the ball pretty well, I expect Wisconsin's offense to do just the same. The Badgers will sorely miss the services of All-American WR Lee Evans, who will miss the first half of the season, but Wisconsin has a great offensive line, a budding superstar in Sophomore running back Anthony Davis (1466 yards at 5.0 ypr as a Frosh), and two solid quarterbacks in starter Brooks Bollinger and relief man Jim Sorgi. Fresno has a very good defensive front that allowed just 3.9 yards per rushing play last season against a schedule of good running teams that combined to average 4.8 yprp on offense. The Bulldogs won't be quite as stingy against the run this year and I expect Wisconsin to run the ball pretty well against them in this game while throwing the ball adequately enough, against a mediocre Fresno State secondary, to move the ball pretty well also. Fresno State has a huge advantage in special teams and if Fresno can exploit the Badgers' young defensive front and take the pressure off of Grady, the Bulldogs will have an excellent chance at another upset on this field. I prefer to take the points with a Fresno State team that is 9-4 ATS as an underdog the last 3 years against a Badgers squad that is just 1-8 ATS as a home favorite the last 2 seasons.
via Dr. Bob