2002 Buzz Word Sports records
SEASON NFL: 122-86, +76.35 UNITS!!
SEASON NBA: 98-81, +20.35 UNITS!!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: 120-96, +23.35 UNITS!!
SEASON MLB: 672-582, +151.85 UNITS!!
YESTERDAY'S RECAP:
Overtime games are always frustrating when you have the underdog... when you're getting points in regulation, and regulation ends in a tie, you know you've made the right call... however, making the right call and ending up with a winning play are always two different things, and in last night's Seattle/Atlanta game, we got the short side of the stick in OT...
Despite the 10.5 Unit swing that game caused, we still nailed the majority of our other plays to go 4-2 on the evening and pick up +6.25 Units overall... however, as the perfectionists we are, it's tough not to look at that Sonics game and feel as though we should have been +16.75 Units on the evening...
Nonetheless, as always, a positive day is always a good day, as we continue to churn out the profits in all sports... another great NBA card is up for this evening, so please check it out...
11/27 TOP PLAYS:
New Jersey @ Phoenix 9:05 PM EST
Phoenix +5 over New Jersey (5 Units)
Phoenix/New Jersey Under 176 (3 Units)
Jason Kidd once again returns to his old digs as the New Jersey Nets travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns... and once again, we get the Nets in one of our favorite situations - that of a road favorite.... you see, whenever the Nets are favored on the road, they are one of the best go-againsts in pro sports, as the Nets are a miserable 8-27 ATS in their last 35 games as a road favorite... and when New Jersey is favored by six points or less on the road, they are a horrific 5-24 ATS in their last 29 games...
It's not as though New Jersey has proven much on the road this season anyway, as they have gone just 3-3 SU and averaged just 90.2 ppg in those contests... Phoenix's defense at home has been strong enough to limit their opposition to 88 points or less and an average of 81.3 ppg... toss in the fact that the road team in this series has failed to break 87 points in each of the last four contests, and we don't expect the Nets to put up a banner offensive performance this evening... then again, with the Suns scoring at a snail's pace themselves, neither squad should expect much firepower this evening, lending strong credence to an Under play...
Despite the Suns' 6-6 overall record, Phoenix has been strong as ever at home, with just two losses against five wins (against the likes of Milwaukee, Portland, Houston and Atlanta)... and the two games in which they failed to emerge victorious were both decided by two points or less... considering that Phoenix is getting five points in this contest, you have to like their chances of covering this contest even if they don't pull off the straight up win... toss in the fact that Phoenix is 7-3 SU/ATS as a home dog, and have won their last three games in this position by a MINIMUM of 12 points ATS, and we like Phoenix even more...
Think about this for a quick second... in a typical road game this season, the Nets are outscoring their opposition by a 90.2 to 90.0 margin, while the Suns are outscoring teams at home by an 84.6-81.3 margin... so why exactly are the Nets laying points in this contest, other than the fact that public perception has them as the better team here?
While the five points are nice to have, we doubt that Phoenix will need them, as the Suns have won each of their last five home games against the Nets both SU and ATS, including Jason Kidd's "triumphant" 1-10 performance in his return to Phoenix last season... overall, the home team in this series has claimed nine out of ten games both straight up and against the spread, and with a Nets team that still hasn't shown an ability to make good as a road favorite, we will side with the Suns to make it six straight at home against the Nets... take the Suns and the Under.
FINAL PREDICTION: PHOENIX 86, NEW JERSEY 81
Sacramento @ Minnesota 8:05 PM EST
Minnesota +3 over Sacramento (4 Units)
Minnesota/Sacramento Under 200 (2 Units)
The Sacramento Kings travel to Minnesota with no rest to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, and both these teams will be without some key personnel in this contest... for Sacramento, it looks like Peja Stojakovic may sit out his third straight game, while Mike Bibby and Scot Pollard are still sidelined indefinitely... With Bibby out, and new acquisition Keon Clark providing an interior presence, the boys from Sactown have been a different team this year than in years past, focusing more on defense to win on the road, while sacrificing a little offense in the process... the Kings have failed to score more than 97 points in four consecutive road games, and are averaging just 94.7 ppg in their last six road contests.... meanwhile, for a defense that was once known to let opponents score at will, the Kings have improved greatly by allowing 100+ in just 3 of 16 games this season....
The Wolves are also missing some key ingredients, most notably Wally Szcerbieck, and they have struggled to compete early on this season, going just 5-6 until their recent 3-1 mini-surge that has gotten them back above .500 on the year... However, despite their troubles this season, including a 5-3 home record (with losses to New Jersey, Boston, and Indiana), one thing we do not recommend is going against the T-Wolves as a home dog... in the second game of this season, Minnesota was installed as a slight home dog to Orlando, and ended up winning SU by six... installed as a home dog against the Mavs and Lakers last year, Minnesota won both of those games straight up as well... the year before that, four more teams (Utah, Portland, Houston, San Antonio) befell the same fate in the regular season... all told, the Wolves are 10-1 SU/ATS as a home dog during the regular season, and with Sacramento struggling to score points right now, Minnesota has a terrific chance of adding to that mark...
The Kings may be on a six-game winning streak, but the only winning team they have beaten during this time was the Orlando Magic, who they defeated by just two points as a ten-point home favorite... meanwhile, as a road fav this season, the Kings are just 1-4-1 ATS... and with the home team having won 7 of the last 8 games between these squads SU (including Minnesota winning four of five at home), we definitely like the chances of Kevin Garnett and company taking down Chris Webber and company...
In addition to our play on Minnesota, we also like this game to go Under the posted total of 200... As a road favorite this season, the Kings have seen the Under go 5-1, with the only Over coming when they allowed Seattle to throw 111 points on the board against them... with Minnesota still without the services of Wally World, Felipe Lopez, and Terrell Brandon, we don't expect to see the same running and gunning style from the Wolves... this is especially true when you consider that Minnesota has been focusing on defense lately, allowing 92.7 ppg in their last three contests...
The only road wins the Kings have registered this year have come against Memphis, Golden State, Cleveland, the Clippers, and Portland (by just 1), five teams that are a combined 19-53 on the season... in their only two road games against winning teams this season, the Kings have gone 0-2... expecting Sacramento to come in with no rest and take down a Minnesota team that thrives as a home dog is asking quite a bit, and we just don't see Sacramento pulling it off tonight... take the Kings and the Under.
FINAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 98, SACRAMENTO 93
Houston @ Golden State 10:35 PM EST
Houston +2 over Golden State (4 Units)
Just like the Nets earlier tonight, the Golden State Warriors have been placed in a situation to fail, as they have been installed as a small home favorite over the Houston Rockets, who are playing their second road game in two nights... and while playing back-to-backs is normally the type of thing that will cause teams to lose their focus and fail to cover, the Rockets have actually covered each of their last five "back-end" games...
But more important than how the Rockets do with no rest is the long and storied history of the Golden State Warriors in the role of a small home favorite... for while the Warriors always seem to be on a path towards respectability, they never fail to let down the public when asked to cover a small line at home... in Golden State's last 11 games as a home favorite of less than five points, the Warriors are a perfect 0-11 against the spread... in fact, Golden State only won ONE of those contests straight up, pulling out a one-point victory when favored by a point and a half... needless to say, trusting in the Warriors as a home favorite is just a bad idea, and as such, we will look to go the other way...
While the Rockets are just 1-4 straight up in their last five road games, they have actually performed very strongly, losing twice by a mere point to the Suns and Clippers, while actually compiling a 4-1-1 record in their last six road games... except for a double-digit road loss to the Mavs a week ago, the Rockets have actually been one of the stronger plays in the NBA, covering five straight contests along with a push last night at Portland...
While the Warriors have been awful as a small home fav, the Rockets have thrived in the reverse role of small road doggie, going a spectacular 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road dog of four points or less... additionally, Steve Francis and the Rockettes have thoroughly enjoyed facing Golden State, running off six wins in their last seven matchups, and eight of the last ten head-to-heads overall... the fact that Houston has won and covered each of their last three trips to Golden State has only helped add to a very strong series trend which has seen the road team cover eight straight games in this series... We will gladly put our faith in the Rockets to make it nine straight occurrences tonight, and we recommend you do the same...
FINAL PREDICTION: HOUSTON 100, GOLDEN STATE 94
Dallas @ Detroit 7:35 PM EST
Dallas -3.5 over Detroit (3 Units)
It's a battle of undefeated teams, as the Pistons put their 6-0 home record on the line against the Maverick's 13-0 overall record... the Mavs already crushed Detroit at home earlier this season, but can they win again in Detroit against one of the best defensive teams in the league?
In looking at each team's performance this season, it appears that Dallas truly has established them as an elite force in the league, especially after back-to-back road wins over Eastern Conference powers New Jersey and Boston, games the Mavs won by 8 and 11 points respectively... and not only has Dallas won every game they have played this season, they have accomplished this task by less than seven points just once this season, and that was still by four points... not too shockingly, the Mavs have compiled a 10-3 ATS mark on the year, with their only three ATS losses coming when favored by 9.5 points or more... considering that Dallas is now a remarkable 23-9 ATS on the road after a double-digit win, their odds of running their season-opening winning streak to fourteen look solid...
The Pistons may be 6-0 at home, but the laundry list of teams they have defeated don't give much cause for celebration.. besides teams such as Miami, Denver, New York and Memphis, the Pistons have been able to take down New Orleans and Utah at home... before calling those two games quality wins, it must be recalled that Utah has only started playing well after playing the Pistons (running off five straight to move to 8-7), and that New Orleans' 10-5 record is tempered by the fact that they are a horrendous 2-5 on the road on the year...
The Pistons are coming off their most impressive of the year, winning by 15 on the road at Indiana, but the Pistons have had problems following up a big victory with subsequent success, as they have gone just 5-10-1 ATS after winning by double-digits, including a 1-5-1 ATS mark since the playoffs began last season... the last time Detroit was preparing to face the Mavs, they were coming off a dominating 89-63 win over the Nuggets... that high quickly dissolved into a 114-75 laugher at the hands of Dirk Nowitski and company, where the 114 points allowed still is 20 points higher than any point total the Pistons have allowed this year...
Dallas has performed well on the road when prepping for a game the next night, as the Mavs have won each of their last four opening games ATS by 9.5, 18.5, 18, and 11 points against the likes of Boston, Seattle, Utah, and Chicago... the Mavs have also covered four of their last five trips to Detroit and have scored less than 96 points just once this season, while holding their opponents to just 89.1 ppg this season... while the Pistons may put up a fight for a few quarters, the Mavs should just have too much firepower for the Pistons, as they pull away and win this one by ten...
FINAL PREDICTION: DALLAS 97, DETROIT 87
Miami @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST
Philadelphia -11 over Miami (1 Unit)
Philadelphia/Miami Under 173.5 (2.5 Units)
When a series between two teams has seen the Under cash on nine straight occasions, we'd be silly not to look at the chances of a tenth straight Under occurring... and considering that the posted total of 173.5 falls directly in line with the last seven games between the Heat and Sixers, the odds look pretty decent for a reoccurence of the Under taking place...
In five road games this season, the Heat are averaging just 80 points per game on offense, and three of their last four road games have resulted in totals of 160 or less... and defensively, the Heat are stifling their opponents to the tune of 79 points per game in their last four contests... meanwhile, Philly has held the opposition to 88 points or less in their last four games overall, and just 87 points or less in their last three home games... the biggest problem we face in this contest is not whether or not the Heat will be held (After all, the Heat have followed up their last four SU wins with just 68, 79, 67, and 65 points in their subsequent games), but whether or not Miami can keep the 76ers to a low enough output to salvage a tenth straight Under...
However, with Miami having held the Sixers to 82 points or less in their last three home games against the Heat, and with Philly having only broken 82 points just once in their last six games against the Heat, we will take our chances with the Under... The last time these two teams combined for more than 170 points was in April of 2000, nine meetings ago where the teams combined for 176 points... additionally, the last three final tallies in Philly have resulted in totals of no higher than 159, and an average of less than 154 points per game... with that type of history behind us, we have some serious wiggle room in this contest, even if the Sixers are a more potent offense this year than previously... with that in mind, we will take the Under with a side play on Philly...
FINAL PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA 89, MIAMI 74
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Seattle @ Memphis 8:05 PM EST
Seattle -4.5 over Memphis (3 Units)
Denver @ San Antonio 8:35 PM EST
Denver +16 over San Antonio (2.5 Units)
Atlanta @ New Orleans 8:35 PM EST
New Orleans/Atlanta Over 193 (1.5 Units)
LA Lakers @ Orlando 7:05 PM EST
Orlando PK over LA Lakers (1 Unit)