2002-03 Buzz Word Sports records
SEASON NBA: 250-191, +100.45 UNITS!!
SEASON NFL: 168-134, +68.7 UNITS!!
SEASON CFB: 146-128, -15.8 UNITS
SEASON MLB: 672-582, +151.85 UNITS!!
Enjoy a sampling of our everyday work... Best of luck to everyone tonight!
1/8 NBA TOP PLAYS:
Chicago @ Washington 7:05 PM EST
Washington -8 over Chicago (4.5 Units)
The Chicago Bulls are playing the worst away basketball in the league right now... The Bulls have now lost eleven straight road games by an average of 13.5 ppg, and have lost each of their last seven road games by double-digits, including losses to the Raptors and Cavs, two of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference... in fact, Chicago is now 0-6 SU and ATS on the road against Eastern Conference foes, and are now forced to face a Washington Wizards team that is suddenly playing some terrific ball...
The Wizards have figured out some kind of spell on offense, as the team has now scored 100 points or more in each of their last four games, and have won four straight contests against the likes of Boston, Indiana, San Antonio, and this very Chicago team, who the Wizards routed in Chicago by a 107-82 margin... the correlation between scoring 100 points and winning is nothing new for the Wiz, as Washington is now 19-1 SU in games where they have hit triple-digits, including a perfect 12-0 mark this season... considering that the Bulls are allowing an average of 102.1 ppg on the road this season, and the Wizards have now scored 115 and 107 points in their last two games against Chicago, and we're certain that the Wizards will at least win this game straight up...
As for covering the eight-point line in this game, we will continue to have faith in the Bulls and their ability to not just lose on the road, but lose big... it certainly doesn't hurt that the Bulls have scored no more than 90 points in each of their last five games against the Wizards, and are averaging a paltry 82.8 ppg in their last five against the Wiz... additionally, the Bulls are 0-7 ATS as a dog of between 8 and 12 points, while the Wizards are 8-4 ATS against teams under .500, and 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS at home against losing teams, with their only ATS loss coming against a Knicks team that is playing much improved basketball...
The favorite in this series is now 4-0 both SU and ATS in the last four head-to-head matchups between these squads, with the Wizards having won each of the last two contests by 25 points apiece... with less than double-digits to lay against a Bulls team that has made losing by 10+ on the road standard practice, we are all over the Wiz...
FINAL PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 106, CHICAGO 90
Golden State @ Minnesota 8:05 PM EST
Golden State +6.5 over Minnesota (4.5 Units)
To say these are two teams heading in opposite directions is quite the understatement... the Minnesota Timberwolves, once considered the future of the Western Conference, have seen their team gutted of considerable talent over the past several seasons... a team that once had the incredible promise of players such as Stephon Marbury and Chauncey Billups has been reduced to Kevin Garnett and a bunch of guys named Joe... well okay, maybe just one Joe (Smith), but the Wolves have been handcuffed by their ill-informed decision to sign Smith to a secret contract, and the loss of several first-round picks, along with bad trades, bad luck (Malik Sealy), and injuries (Wally Szczerbiak, Terrell Brandon) have left this Minnesota team toothless other than Kevin Garnett, who has the amazing distinction of leading Minnesota in points, rebounds and assists this season... the end result of this one-man wrecking crew mentality has been a Minnesota team that is in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, and is just 1-3 SU in their last four games to drop to 17-16 on the season...
The pendulum has been swinging the other way for the Golden State Warriors, who are finally producing results after assembling a pretty impressive lineup of talent over the past few years... players such as Gilbert Arenas and Troy Murphy have blossomed to give the Warriors four very consistent scoring options (Antawn Jamison and Jason Richardson being the others)... however, the real improvement that this Warriors team has seen has been on the defensive end, as the Warriors have now held their last six opponents to 98 or less, and an average of 92.2 ppg after consistently being a team that allowed their opponents to score 100+ game in and game out... with the improved effort on the defense, all of a sudden the wins have started to rack up, as the Warriors have now won five of their last six games straight up, with their sole loss in that span coming by a mere three points... all of a sudden, after starting the season just 1-6, the Warriors are making a strong push to reach .500, and with the improvement they have shown thus far, they have been a terrific play as an underdog, as Golden State is a team that is still improving and very underrated (as opposed to the Wolves, who are getting worse and yet still expected to perform according to past experience)...
On the road this season, the Warriors are a very solid 9-5-1 ATS, including a 7-3-1 ATS mark as a dog of 4 points or more... and as a dog of 6+ points anywhere this season, the Warriors are an exceptional 11-4-1 ATS in sixteen contests... The Timberwolves, on the other hand, are a horrendous 1-7-1 ATS as a home favorite of two or more points this season, are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, and have allowed 94 points or more to each of their last five opponents (and an average of 100.6 ppg)... the road team has won four straight games in this series straight up, and with a balanced Golden State team that is now a BETTER team than the one-man Wolves, we look for that straight-up run to move to five... take the Warriors to not only cover this game, but win it straight up...
FINAL PREDICTION: GOLDEN STATE 98, MINNESOTA 94
Houston @ Orlando 7:05 PM EST
Orlando -4 over Houston (4 Units)
In this matchup between likely playoff teams from either conference, we have an interesting battle between a Houston Rockets team that has been achieving their success through solid defense versus an Orlando team that is most successful when they are trying to run their opponents off the court... While the Rockets are an amazing 16-1-2 ATS this season when holding their opponents to 90 points or less, the flipside is a horrid 2-11 ATS mark when allowing 91 points or more this season, including an 0-6 SU/ATS mark in their last six occasions... obviously, the key question in this contest is whether the Rockets can keep the Orlando Magic offense from coming near their 103.5 ppg average at home this season... it's most certainly a tall order, and one we just don't see happening tonight, as the Magic win and cover at home against the Rockets...
While Houston has succeeded in winning and covering each of their last four contests at home by allowing no more than 86 points in any of those contests, their defense becomes pretty lax when it comes time to hit the road... not only does Houston's average points allowed jump from 89 points overall to 91.5 ppg on the road, but the Rockets have been worse than usual when traveling away from Houston, allowing at least 98 points in each of their last five road games, and an average of 102.6 ppg in those contests... combine those numbers with an Orlando offense that has scored 101+ points in six of their last seven at home, and the odds of Houston holding the Magic to more than 13 points below their home average seem incredibly low...
When you also throw in Orlando's response when installed as a home favorite against Western Conference teams, those odds seem to slip even further, as the Magic have averaged 112 points per game in five such games this season, going 4-1 both SU and ATS in those contests... Orlando's only loss in this role came when they allowed 120 points to the Clippers, but against a Rockets team that has scored just 84.2 ppg in their last five trips to Orlando, we just have a lot of difficulty seeing the Magic failing to cover this contest...
Then again, covering the spread against the Rockets is nothing new for Orlando, as the Magic have gone 9-1 straight up and 7-1 ATS against the Rockets, including a perfect 5-0 SU/4-0 ATS mark at home, where they have outscored the Rockets by a dominating 18.2 ppg margin... in all five of those home victories, Orlando won by a minimum of nine points... therefore, the concept of Orlando covering a four-point spread seems more than reasonable in our eyes, even with the addition of Yao Ming to the team... although Houston is a very solid team, their chances of success rely strongly upon stopping the opposition from scoring... we just don't believe that Orlando is a team the Rockets can stop, and as such, we will make a heavy 4-Unit play upon the Magic to push their record as a home favorite to 8-3 ATS...
FINAL PREDICTION: ORLANDO 100, HOUSTON 86
Memphis @ LA Clippers 10:35 PM EST
Memphis +6 over LA Clippers (4 Units)
As soon as we saw this line, our jaws dropped... we knew that the Clippers would end up being favored in this contest, as both these teams are universally acknowledged as bad teams, but the thought of the Clippers laying a half dozen points in this contest was something we just didn't expect, and certainly can't fathom...
First of all, the Clippers are ALWAYS worth playing against as a favorite, as LA is a horrendous 2-10-1 ATS this season when favored, with both of their covering efforts coming against the Miami Heat... toss on the fact that the Clippers have lost six straight games SU and are just 1-8 SU/ATS in their last nine games (with the covering effort coming in a ten-point loss as an 11.5 point dog), and this is a team that shouldn't be favored against ANYONE, no matter what their record...
And while the Memphis Grizzlies may be just 11-22 on the season, this is a team that is an exceptional 9-4 SU in their last 13 games, with three of those losses coming against the likes of Dallas, Boston and Utah... as a pick or single-digit underdog, the Grizzlies have covered nine of their last twelve games... and when installed as a dog of more than two points, Memphis has covered five of their last six contests... and while we are certainly aware of the fact that Memphis has just won once on the road this season, they have only had four chances in this recent streak, and have succeeded in their one chance against a team with a losing home record, defeating the Miami Heat by a 107-96 margin as a 5.5-point underdog... the Clippers have lost five of their last six games at home, with only a three-point win against Denver salvaging what is now a 7-12 home record... so even if Memphis does fail again on the road, we're looking at a Clippers team that will likely be unable to cover a six-point spread even if they stumble across a win...
Memphis has already had a great deal of success against the Clippers, covering seven of the last ten games between these teams, including a 4-1 ATS mark in Los Angeles, where the Clippers have beaten the Grizz by more than six points just once... the Grizzlies are 19-8 ATS following a SU win, and are 11-6 ATS with a day's rest on their side, while the Clippers are just 3-8 SU as a favorite against teams other than the Heat, with those three wins decided by a COMBINED six points... in those eleven games, the Clips averaged just 85.9 ppg, more than six points below their season average, displaying a team that chokes in pressure situations... meanwhile, Memphis has scored at least 84 points in their last five visits to LA, and an average of 95.4 ppg in those contests... and in four non-covering home contests against the Grizzlies, the Clippers have scored between 90 and 92 points on each occasion, a number that would seem to work well with their offensive impotence as a favorite... the Grizz may not actually pull out the SU victory in this contest, but losing by more than six points just seems highly unlikely given the circumstances... therefore, take Memphis and the points, as they go down to the final seconds with a strong chance at their second road win of the season...
FINAL PREDICTION: MEMPHIS 95, LA CLIPPERS 91
New York @ Indiana 7:05 PM EST
New York +8 over Indiana (3 Units)
This is just way too many points for a shorthanded Indiana team to be handing the Knicks, who are playing exceptional basketball that belies their 12-19 record on the season... ever since being forced to start their season without two key components to what they hoped would be a terrific season (Antonio McDyess and Latrell Sprewell), the Knicks have gotten back Sprewell and have adjusted to the loss of McDyess with a solid 10-9 record after a horrendous 2-10 start to the year...
While playing .500 ball may not be considered exceptional by most, the Knicks have done a terrific job of remaining competitive in nearly every game they have played since Thanksgiving, losing only three times by more than tonight's spread of 8 points... two of those losses have come against a Boston Celtics team that has absolutely owned the Knicks throughout the past couple of seasons, while the other has come against a Dallas Mavericks team that blows out most of their opponents at home... we are more than willing to think of those three games as exceptions to the rule with the Knicks, as their other six losses since that time have come by a combined 23 points, or less than four points a game... the last seven Knicks games have been marked with four wins (three over winning opponents), two three-point losses to Portland and Orlando, and a blowout loss to the Mavs - a performance that enabled the Knicks to cover six of seven games overall in a stretch where they have played six of those seven against teams with a winning record (and who are a combined 39 games over .500, despite Toronto's 8-27 record)...
One of those wins was extremely notable, and we're sure both teams will have that contest on their mind... Just last week, the Knicks overcame two 17-point deficits against the Pacers to win a 98-96 contest that was notable for Ron Artest's broken camera outburst that cost him a three-game suspension, a suspension that will cost him the opportunity to extract revenge tonight against the Knicks... the loss of Artest has been huge, as he is the glue to the Pacers' defense... without him the past two games, the Pacers lost in double-overtime to a Wizards team they normally would have beaten, and won (also in OT) by just one to a Philadelphia 76ers squad that has been playing some of the worst basketball in the league as of late... all in all, each of Indiana's last four games have been decided by three points or less, and without Artest in the lineup (and also without Jonathan Bender), we have a tough time seeing the Pacers blowing out the Knicks here... are Reggie Miller and Ron Mercer going to be able to contain New York's biggest offensive weapons in Latrell Sprewell and Allan Houston with the effectiveness of a Ron Artest? Michael Jordan scored 41 two nights ago without Mercer to stop him (Larry Hughes and Jerry Stackhouse also both scored 20+), while Allen Iverson ran free for 32 in his chance to go up against Indiana's weakened perimeter defense... needless to say, New York's dynamic duo should both have very solid games in Artest's absence...
All in all, we fully expect an Indiana win here... but this is a Pacers team that only builds big leads through defense, and with Ron Artest on the sidelines against a team that thrives on their perimeter game, we see the chances of Indiana blowing out the Knicks as very minimal, even with the motivating factor of revenge... Indiana wins, but by no more than five points...
FINAL PREDICTION: INDIANA 101, NEW YORK 97
1/8 NBA FREE PLAYS:
Detroit @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST
Philadelphia -2.5 over Detroit (2 Units)
It's always tough to predict when a team will stop struggling and start winning again... the Philadelphia 76ers have obviously been in quite the tailspin since their 15-4 start to the season, dropping 11 of their last 15 games to fall to just 19-15 on the year... their latest loss was an overtime home defeat at the hands of the Indiana Pacers... however, we saw some things in that game that makes us believe that the Sixers are ready to turn the corner tonight against the Pistons... most importantly, the Sixers exhibited some heart in their last game, rallying from a 15-point deficit midway through the third quarter to send the game to overtime, only to lose in the final seconds in overtime against the Pacers...
However, when the 76ers are coming off a close contest, it is usually a precursor for success, as Philly holds a 5-1 SU/ATS mark after a game decided by two points or less this season, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS mark as a favorite in this situation... it's also very easy to forget that the majority of Philly's recent struggles have come on the road, as during their current 1-6 run, six of those contests were on the road, with just one loss at home... and that game headed to overtime before the 76ers fell... all in all, the Sixers are a very solid 13-3 at home on the year... and while the Pistons hold a solid 9-7 mark on the road, they are just 1-3 in their last four road games against winning teams, and have gone 4-3 in their last seven games more as a result of facing teams like Toronto, Atlanta and Washington rather than actually playing good basketball themselves...
These are all opinions, mind you... but one fact that does remain which hold plenty of water is the fact that the favorite in this series between Philly and Detroit has now won TEN consecutive games SU... so when the oddsmakers are placing Philadelphia as a favorite in this game, we will certainly take note... Detroit's victory in Philadelphia last April was their first in Philly in six tries... with the 76ers desperately needing to get back on track and still with an 8-1 record at home against the Eastern Conference, we believe Allen Iverson and company will make that win by the Pistons the exception rather than the rule... take the 76ers, as they finally breakthrough with a hard-fought win...
FINAL PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA 96, DETROIT 90
Phoenix @ Utah 9:05 PM EST
Phoenix +7.5 over Utah (1 Unit)
no analysis.
Really nice writeups that agree with the 2 nba plays I'm planning tonight Wash and Golden St.
Glad to see... best of luck to you tonight, and good luck on your plays!
Buzz
Buzz, do you use a monitor? If so, which one? Thanks...
MC
Looks like a rough night but always enjoy the informative writeups. Hopefully you will contribute more in the future.
Yeah, those finishes in Golden State/Minnesota and Memphis/LAC really killed us tonight, but those are the breaks sometimes... as we had to tell someone who took the time to rip on us, there are no locks in sports betting - the best that we can do is provide the best chance of long-term success... so even if Team A would cover the spread 75% of the time in a certain situation, there's still a one in four chance the game will go down in flames due to bad luck or a bad break... tonight obviously didn't work out our way... LOL
Anyway, thanks for the feedback, Moose... we have a lot of pride and confidence in our work, and while we can't provide all of our work on here (after all, we are a subscription service) every day, we plan on being a more consistent contributor to this group and others now that the crush of college bowl games has finally passed and the NFL season is winding down...
Mcash - we've actually been trying to find a good monitoring service that isn't expensive but automatically monitors our site (as opposed to having to manually enter plays each day)... also, we're having difficulty finding a monitor who will work on a 5-Unit system like we use... if you have any suggestions, please let us know, as the lack of a monitoring service is a definite stigma we want to get past...
In the meantime, we ask that people rely upon the fact that we release ALL of our plays to the public five minutes after the game begins... in other words, once we make a pick, we stand behind it 100 percent win or lose, as any chance that we might forge or alter our records would be caught by anyone taking a quick second to check out our plays after they've started.... plus, it's just a pretty cool way for people to check out our service for themselves prior to making any monetary commitment... honestly, it's something more services should do, because even some sports monitoring services have ulterior agendas and can easily be paid off by anyone looking to forge a better record for themselves...
Anyway, if you have any other questions, please let us know... in the meantime, thanks for the feedback - we'll make sure to get some free plays up for you all this weekend which should hopefully help make up for tonight's disappointing results...
Best regards,
Buzz