DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
YANKEE "OVERS" A VIRTUAL PRINTING PRESS SO FAR!
I hope you've been playing the Overs in New York Yankees games this season. It's the gift that keeps on giving!
Through Monday Night's 10-8 loss at Tampa Bay, the Yankees are 13-4-1 to the Over so far this season. And, a few games in cool, spacious Oakland are really all that's kept this from being one of the most dominant early season trends EVER! None of the Yankees home games have gone Under this season. Most of their road games in neutral or favorable scoring conditions have gone Over as well.
Let's review:
*2-0 to the Over in a home series with Tampa Bay, with the games landing on 14 and 13.
*2-0-1 to the Over in a home series with Baltimore, with the games landing on 10, 17, and 10. That's a 4-0-1 start to the Over for the Yankees.
*1-2 to the Under on the road at Minnesota, in games started by Pavano, Mussina, and Pettite. This is just before Pavano and Mussina went on the Disabled List. Totals landed on 10, 11, and 6. So, two of the three were in position to go Over even with the quality names on the mound.
*1-2 to the Under in cool spacious Oakland (note the A's have played a zillion Unders this year because they haven't caught many breaks conditions wise). The numbers landed on 9, 7, and 9. The full season mark stands at 6-4-1 to the Overs at this point. Many handicappers backed off the Over tendencies though because of the two road series. They should have noticed the conditions and the starting pitchers! From this point forward to our publication deadline, the Yankees haven't played any more Unders.
*3-0 to the Over at home against Cleveland, with totals landing on 13, 11, and 14. The Yankees sluggers seem to thrive at home. The lefties like Giambi and Matsui like the short right field dimensions. AROD and Jeter know how to spread the ball around to inflict damage on opposing staffs. We're now 9-4-1 to the Over for the season, which is 7-0-1 in home games.
*3-0 to the Over at Boston, with totals landing on 13, 12, and 13. Fenway Park is a great park for hitters, though it's not as strong as it was in its heyday. Still, this isn't Oakland in terms of spaciousness and poor visibility. It's amazing that oddsmakers kept putting up totals of 10.5 in this series. Not even close!
*1-0 to the Over at Tampa Bay Monday night with a game that landed on 18.
That brings us to 13-4-1 to the Over, with an active streak of seven straight before our publication deadline.
Vegas is obviously putting up numbers that are too low. What should the right numbers be?
Well, let's break it down a few ways. Here are the numbers that have been posted outside of Yankee Stadium in games started by Pavano, Mussina, and Pettitte:
10-11-6-9-13
The midpoint there is 10 when ranking from high to low. The average is 9.8. So, you could say that a total of 10 would make sense when the "big three" are on the mound. (Note that Chien-ming Wang wasn't able to make a start during the study sample. He's returning to the roster now, but won't be in midseason form for a few starts most likely.)
Now, here are the numbers that have been posted inside Yankee Stadium by everyone, or on the road by guys who aren't in the "big three" of healthy high priced arms:
14-13-10-17-10-9-7-13-11-14-12-13-18
That's a pretty amazing list. It's INSANE that the oddsmakers keep posting numbers of 10 or 10.5 in these games! The Yankees reached 10 runs in all but two of the games on that long list, and reached 11 or more 9 of 13 times. If you arrange them from high to low, you get:
7-9-10-10-11-12-13-13-13-14-14-17-18
The midpoint is 13 runs, and the average is 12.4. Clearly the totals outside of the big three or outside of cool spacious conditions should be 12.5 or 13. The sportsbooks have been giving away 2-3 runs per total whenever the Yanks take the field in good scoring conditions.
Why are so many Yankees games going Over? Let's review the key facts in play. They WON'T be in play all season, so this is something you have to strike while the iron is hot!
*The Yankees have a great offensive lineup. There are threats up and down the order, and these guys are producing with the knowledge that they HAVE to score a lot to win.
*The Yankees have suffered injuries to the projected stalwarts of the rotation (except for Andy Pettitte, who's known to pitch nervously when he has to carry a big load). This has led to guys who aren't major league caliber starters getting a lot of innings. Also, Kei Igawa from Japan has been a disappointment. He's either in over his head or letting nerves get to him. Bottom line, most Yankees starters have been throwing batting practice this year to opposing hitters!
*The Yankees don't have depth in the bullpen because so many nobodies are not in position to start games. The arms just aren't there. So, when a starter has troubles, his replacement comes in and makes things worse.
*Mariano Rivera isn't what he used to be as an ace reliever. You can't count on him to slam the door shut late in the game any more. If a game HASN'T gone Over before Rivera gets the call, he might take it Over himself in the 9th inning.
Put it all together, and you get a printing press in neutral or high scoring conditions on most nights. Vegas oddsmakers have been very slow to adjust their lines. The wagering public has noticed, and has been making a lot of money on these games. The Yanks are on TV all the time. And, most baseball fans are either Yankees fans or Yankees haters. They pay attention to the results and saw this phenomenon early. People kept betting Overs in Fenway this past weekend... and hit it again Monday Night in Tampa Bay in the Igawa/Fossum pitching matchup.
All good things come to an end, and this very strong current tendency won't last forever. I do expect the Yankees pitching staff to improve once they get healthy. And, that will create a domino effect across the board:
*If the rotation is Pettitte, Wang, Mussina, Pavano, and whoever, that's four guys who have established that they're not blowout fodder all the time. Opponents won't be cracking six to seven runs nearly as often.
*When the big money guys are back, the bullpen will get better just because the most useless guys will be sent back to the minors. The "long" relievers may go several days without even being used... which clearly lowers the impact they can have on a game.
*Mariano Rivera won't be pitching in nailbiters every time he takes the mound. He'll get a few games with a bit if a cushion to build his confidence back up.
*The offense will take a few days off and coast to 4-1 or 5-2 type victories. Right now they're always grinding from behind, doing whatever they can to put runs up on the board. Many veteran teams do a version of "calling off the dogs" with leads late in the game, figuring their pitchers will get the job done. This is one reason the public loses over the long haul playing Overs. Great offenses sometimes coast with a lead.
Right now, several factors are conspiring to create Overs. Very soon, their reverses will conspire AGAINST the Overs. You've got to stay on top of developments so you can make the most of what's OBVIOUSLY going on here!