Are the Capitals Done?
By Judd Hall
Some things just never change.
Last year, the Capitals came into the playoffs as one of the National Hockey League’s hottest teams. And that caught them nothing as they lost in seven games to the Flyers in the first round.
Washington headed into the postseason this year winning seven of its last 11 matches to help lock up the Southeast Division title and the second seed in the Eastern Conference. And they were even getting to square off with the Rangers, who were just barely scrapped by to reach the playoffs for the fourth straight year. That alone made me not only take them to sweep the Blueshirts, but I felt that the Caps could wind up in the Stanley Cup Final.
Things haven’t panned out up to this point as the Caps are one loss away from making another early exit. Even worse is the amount of money that bettors have pissed away during this series by backing Alex Ovechkin’s crew. If you played the Capitals in the first four games, you would be down around 425 units.
Now gamblers must determine if they’re willing to put their faith in Washington on Friday to force this battle back to Madison Square Garden. Most sportsbooks have already posted the Capitals as $2.00 home favorites (risk $200 to win $100) with the total coming in at five.
The Las Vegas Hilton’s Jay Kornegay offers his take on why the Capitals are such big favorites when they’re in such a precarious position. “The Caps may have their backs against the wall, but they are much more talented than New York. Plus they will be playing for their postseason lives at home, which is never a bad thing.”
It’s hard to argue with installing Washington as a big “chalk” at the Verizon Center since they were 29-9-3 there this year and 52-24-6 over the last two seasons. But they’re 0-2 at home against the Rangers in the playoffs and game out on the short end versus Philly in Game 7 just a year ago.
As if its home record in the postseason wasn’t bad enough, Washington is dealing with Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes.
King Henrik has posted a 2.00 goals against average during this series, while stopping 94.6 percent of the shots he’s faced. And you can’t go by his 14-13 Stanley Cup playoff record as Lundqvist has proved that he can win a series on his own with a career playoff GAA of 2.49 and 92.8 save percentage.
New York has also been able to keep its top flight penalty kill unit running strong as they’ve given up just two power play goals to the Caps. That is no small feat when you consider that Washington ranked second in the NHL on the power play, converting 25.2 percent of the time on the advantage.
All of the Capitals’ woes can’t be blamed on facing a great defense and goaltender. Their offense has to shoulder some of this burden. Ovechkin leads the team with five points, but only one of those came from lighting the lamp. To be fair, New York has been marking him tight all series long.
Alexander Semin has stepped up thanks to the Rangers’ scheme by posting three goals on the ledger. What has really hurt Washington up to this point is absence of rear guard Mike Green. He’s been on the ice, logging just over 106 minutes in the opening round. Unfortunately, that’s the only way we’re finding him on the stat sheet as Green has just one assist in the series. And the blue liner is taking 2.75 shots per game right now; Green averaged 3.5 SOG during the regular season campaign.
If the Caps can get their offense running, then they should have the game wrapped up with Simeon Varlamov handling the goaltending duties. The 20-year old netminder has only won one of his three starts in the postseason, but he’s got a 1.01 GAA and snuffing out 96 percent of the Rangers’ shots.
History does show that Washington most likely won’t be winning on Friday night as they’re just 3-6 over the past 12 years when facing an elimination game. But they’ve helped out bettors out on total plays by watching the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 during that stretch.
New York makes the most of its chances to eliminate a team in the playoffs. The Rangers are a perfect 5-0 in their last five opportunities to knock a team out of the postseason. And they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 3-1-1 in those matches as well.
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