Avalanche-Sharks Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 1 San Jose Sharks vs. No. 8 Colorado Avalanche
Series Price: San Jose -400, Colorado +330
Skinny: The Sharks needed a Blackhawks loss in the season finale to the Red Wings to secure the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs. San Jose has home-ice advantage through the conference playoffs for the second straight season thanks to a 113-point campaign. The Avalanche didn't end the season strong with three consecutive losses, but Colorado managed to lock up the eighth and final spot in the West with 85 points.
San Jose finished tied with New Jersey for the fifth-most home wins this season (27), while posting 24 victories away from the Shark Tank, which tied Washington and Los Angeles for the most road wins in the league. Three Sharks closed the season with at least 80 points (Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Dany Heatley), as Marleau posted the fourth-most goals in the league with 44. Goalie Evgeni Nabokov concluded the season second in wins (44) and 10th in GAA (2.43), but picked up only three shutouts.
Colorado began the season with a 10-2-2 mark in October, tops in the Western Conference. The final stretch almost kept the Avalanche out of the playoffs, but Colorado edged Vancouver in the shootout on April 6 to return to the postseason for the first time since 2008. The Avs don't have the scoring punch that the Sharks provide as Paul Stastny was the only Colorado player above 65 points with 20 goals and 59 assists. Former Panthers goalie Craig Anderson posted seven shutouts and a GAA of 2.63 in his first season inside the Colorado pipes. Rookie center Matt Duchene will come back for this series after missing Sunday's loss to the Kings with a torso injury. Duchene led all rookies in points with 55, while finishing third on the Colorado squad.
The home team owned the series this season by going 4-0, including Colorado's opening night shocker of San Jose, 5-2 as $1.60 home underdogs. What was most amazing about that Avs victory was Colorado getting out-shot by San Jose, 40-20, including just one shot on goal by the Avalanche in the final period. The Sharks rebounded with a pair of wins at HP Pavilion as substantial favorites, as San Jose's second home victory over Colorado came with back-up goalie Thomas Greiss in net, racking up 42 saves. The final meeting went to the Avalanche in overtime by a 5-4 count as each team rallied from two-goal deficits in that contest, but John-Michael Liles tallied the winner in OT.
Gambling Notes: The Sharks went 17-7 as a home favorite of at least $2.00 this season, but compiled an 11-13 mark on the puck-line, so be careful laying the 1 ½ with San Jose as long 'chalk.' Todd McLellan's squad didn't end the season strong on the highway, going 2-6 SU and 1-9 on the puck-line as a road favorite.
The Avalanche is cold at this point, winners of just three of their final 12 regular season games. Two of those victories came at home and each was after regulation, including the overtime triumph over the Sharks on April 4. Colorado turned into a great 'over' play away from the Pepsi Center, hitting the 'over' in eight straight road contests.
Outlook: The Sharks are looking to get over that elusive hump into the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history. San Jose was solid on any ice this season, while Colorado struggled down the stretch on the road. With the home team owning this series, it's tough to think the Avs will steal a game at the Shark Tank. The Sharks have too much firepower for this Avalanche squad and will likely finish off Colorado in five games.
vegasinsider.com