Blue Jackets-Red Wings Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 2 Detroit Red Wings vs. No. 7 Columbus Blue Jackets
Series Price: Detroit -450, Columbus +325
Series Format: Detroit, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: It’s never advantageous for a team that’s making their first playoff appearance to face off with the defending Stanley Cup champions, but that’s what we have in this first round series.
Columbus comes into the postseason thanks to a sound defensive setup by head coach Ken Hitchcock. That means a lunch pail first blue line with Mike Commodore and Jan Hejda, but it’s really a team wide effort. The Blue Jackets average around 12.5 blocked shots as a team this season.
In the event the Jackets’ rear guards couldn’t stop the opposition, Steve Mason made certain that they wouldn’t score. The sure fire Calder Trophy winning netminder led the league this season with 10 shutouts and finished just behind Boston’s Tim Thomas in goals against average with a 2.29 GAA for the year. Those numbers, and a 91.6 save percentage, helped Mason post a 33-20-7 record. Also, he held a 3-2 mark against the Red Wings with a GAA of 2.38 during the season.
Columbus also had a banner year in scoring with a franchise record 220 goals. That doesn’t sound like a lot until you realize they were averaging 192 goals in the Blue Jackets’ first seven campaigns.
You can’t have an offensive output like that without production from your top players and that’s exactly what Columbus has received from Rick Nash. The former No. 1 pick led the club and finished fifth in the league with 40 trips to the red light district. Ohio State alum R.J. Umberger has been a great pick up considering he’s scored 26 goals with 20 assists.
The Jackets have also benefitted from acquiring Antoine Vermette from Ottawa at the trade deadline. The speedy pivot has seven goals and six assists since joining the CBJ on March 7; Vermette had only nine goals and 19 helpers in 62 matches for the Senators.
Columbus does have an 800 pound gorilla in the room with in the form of its power play. To say it in polite company, they flat out suck. The Blue Jackets have the worst power play in the NHL, scoring just 12.7 percent of the time. Making matters worse for the Jackets is the fact that they have given up 12 shorthanded goals during the regular season.
On the other side of the ice we have the champion Red Wings. Detroit proved how awesome it is offense has been this season by ranking first in scoring with 289 goals. Next closest team was the Bruins at 270.
The Wings have been able to keep the pressure on the opposition in the attack zone thanks to some of the best forwards in the game. They already had Conn Smythe winner Henrik Zetterberg and Blue Jacket killer Pavel Datsyuk (16 goals-34 assists-50 points). But they went out and picked up Marian Hossa from the Penguins. All Hossa has done this year is lead the Red Wings with 40 lamp lighters. And he’s also portrayed the boogeyman in Columbus’ dreams by scoring 11 goals over his career.
With an offense that potent, you can expect the special teams unit to be equally as good. Detroit proves just that with the No. 1 power play in the NHL, converting 25.5 of its advantages into goals. They’ll be facing a PK crew from Columbus that stuffs 82.1 percent of the power plays they face. And they’ve pushed through eight shorthanded goals as well.
Not all is bright and sunny for the Red Wings though with goaltending that leaves a lot to be desired. Chris Osgood helped the club win it all just last season, but he’s been anywhere from so-so to God awful this time around. He’s 26-9-8 with a 3.09 GAA and 88.7 save percentage in 2008-09. However, Osgood has gone just 2-3-1 with a 2.49 GAA in his last six starts of the regular season.
Gambling Notes: If these teams weren’t playing each other I’d be telling you to fade ‘em both, but can’t do that here. Detroit has dropped six of its last eight games this year and the Blue Jackets thought that would it was a good idea to match that record as well.
If you’re looking at just playing sides, smart money is on Detroit as they’re 27-9-5 at Joe Louis Arena this season and the Jackets posted a lackluster 16-18-7 on the road.
We should expect some low scoring tilts as the ‘under’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings. Osgood has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 in his past six starts. Mason has seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 in his last five starts, but he’s been a solid ‘under’ play for the year with a 35-25 mark.
Outlook: Recent history dictates that the defending Stanley Cup champs falter badly the very next year, either failing to advance out of the first round or miss the playoffs altogether. Will that happen here? No.
Columbus has talent and some great coaching, which will help keep them in most of the games against the Wings. But the Red Wings will dispatch the Jackets in five games.
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Go Wings!