Capitals-Rangers Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 2 Washington Capitals vs. No. 7 New York Rangers
Series Price: Washington -200, New York Rangers +170
Series Format: Washington, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: At one point during the season, this would have been a possible Eastern Conference Final. Now it’s nothing more than an opening round appetizer.
So why are these squads facing off now and instead of in May? A major slump and change behind the bench by the Rangers. New York found itself losing 10 of 12 games between Jan. 28 and Feb. 22. That was good enough for the Blueshirts to give Tom Renney his walking papers and install John Tortorella behind the bench.
Since the former Lightning head coach took over on Feb. 23, the Rangers have gone 12-9. Doesn’t sound like much but it was good enough to qualify as the seventh seed in the East instead of making tee times.
New York has also been a much more aggressive squad with Tortorella running things. That means they’re crashing the nets more often than playing the tentative offense they did under Renney. The numbers don’t show a difference for the Rangers, averaging 33 shots on goal during the season. And they’re second to last on the power play of any clubs in the playoffs, converting 13.9 percent of the time with the man advantage. But they are scoring 2.7 goals per game under Torts, compared to the 2.3 in the 61 games under Renney’s thumb.
Washington isn’t hurting for offense as it is third in lighting the lamp in the NHL with 268 goals during the regular season. It’s easy to be among the league leaders in scoring when you have the best goal scorer in hockey with Alex Ovechkin. Alex the Great pushed through 56 goals to win his second straight Maurice Richard Trophy.
Most people think that you must focus form your defense around Ovechkin to have a chance at winning, but that won’t work with the Caps. Washington gets quality breakaway and one-on-one attempts out of Alexander Semin, who scored 34 goals this year…five of which coming in his last five tilts. Meanwhile, you have Mike Green is one of the most aggressive blue liners in the game after scoring 31 goals this season.
Given the offensive firepower that the Capitals possess, you can expect to see New York’s Henrik Lundqvist standing on his head. Nothing new there really since he’s gone 38-25-72 with a goals against average of 2.43 this season. And Lundqvist would have a much better win-loss record if he had a better offense in front of him.
The Caps do have a question mark with Jose Theodore manning the net. He’s gone 32-17-5 with a 2.87 GAA this season, but still came precariously close to losing the starting job to Brent Johnson. The backup netminder wound up going down with a hip injury on Feb. 3. That seemed to galvanize Theodore though as he’s gone 14-8-3 since then.
Gambling Notes: The head-to-head matchup goes to the Capitals since they went 3-0-1 in the series. Bettors enjoyed a great payday by taking the ‘under’ as it went 3-1 in those meetings.
Think about fading the Rangers on the road right now as they’re 1-4 in their last five matches away from Madison Square Garden. Washington, on the other hand, are 4-1 in its last five tilts at the Verizon Center.
The ‘over’ is 5-1-1 in the Caps’ past seven contests.
Outlook: I’m sure some people will point out that the Rangers didn’t have Sean Avery in the lineup during the season series. But I don’t think his antagonizing ways will really matter against a guy like Ovechkin, who gets targeted on a regular basis. Same goes for the additions of Nik Antropov and Derek Morris.
Washington has way too much firepower to get shut down by Lundqvist in the end. The Caps sweep New York with little to no problems.
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