Coyotes-Red Wings Outlook
By Judd Hall
No. 4 Phoenix Coyotes vs. No. 5 Detroit Red Wings
Series Price: Detroit -186, Phoenix +167
Series Format: Phoenix, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: Only the Montreal Expos come to mind when talking about sports franchises that were utter turmoil other than the Coyotes. Phoenix was involved in a bitter fight just last summer to keep its club. When the NHL made certain the team would stay in the desert, it lost Wayne Gretzky as its head coach just a week before the season began. So Dave Tippett took over behind the bench in a year that anything above the basement in the Western Conference would be a pleasant surprise.
Instead of playing out the string, Phoenix went out to win and win they did. The Coyotes actually found themselves sitting in first place of the Western Conference late in the regular season before finishing up with the fourth seed.
The Coyotes weren’t exactly world beaters on the attack this season, averaging 2.57 goals per game to rank 24th amongst all NHL clubs. So how did they wind up with the fourth spot in the playoffs? One word: defense.
Phoenix has employed a smothering defense that essentially drains the opposition’s will to attack as games progress. They’re giving up 2.39 goals per game this season, good enough to rank third in the league.
That strong defense comes down to great play in goal with Ilya Bryzgalov. The former Duck has made a strong case for taking home the Vezina Trophy but also the Hart Memorial Trophy with a 42-20-6 record and goals against average of 2.29.
Bryzgalov will have his hands full against a Red Wing squad that is peaking at just the right time.
Detroit had to deal with a multitude of injuries this season, coupled with what could be considered “off” years by Pavel Datsyuk (27 goals, 43 assists, 70 points) and Henrik Zetterberg (23-47-70).
As bad as things have been for the Red Wings for much of the season, they’ve seemingly come together at the right time. The Wings posted the best record in the NHL after the Olympic Break, going 16-3-2 in their final 21 games of the campaign.
A big reason for that finish was the play of a young, inexperienced netminder. Jimmy Howard, who had started in seven games in the three years before this season, is 37-15-10 in 63 appearances. And his 2.26 GAA is fifth among all the goaltenders.
Gambling Notes: These two teams split their four-game season series with the totals evening out at 1-1-2.
What some gamblers will be very quick to point out is that the ‘Yotes have won 14 games this season by way of shootout – the most of any team in the league. Shootouts are nowhere to be found in the playoffs and it will be interesting to see how that will effect Phoenix. It didn’t come into play against Detroit as both of the Coyotes’ wins came in overtime.
Phoenix did quite well against clubs from the Central Division overall with a 13-7 mark in 20 games. The ‘Yotes were even better as a puck line play, evidenced by a 14-6 record. The ‘under’ went 11-7-2 in those matches as well.
Detroit didn’t fare all that great against the Pacific Division during the 2009-10 campaign with a 10-10 record, while the ‘under’ went 13-6-1. Of course, the last game the Wings had against a team from this group was a 3-2 home setback to the Sharks back on Feb. 11. While that number might be skewed because of the hot play to close out the year, The Red Wings still lost six of their last seven games against this division.
Something we will also see in this series is the Wings being listed as road faves. That happened three times during the regular season against the Pacific, losing all three contests and the ‘under’ cashed in all three occasions. Against the entire league as a road “chalk,” Detroit is 6-11.
While the Red Wings have failed for as road favorites this season, Phoenix has excelled as a home pup. The Desert Dogs were home underdogs 11 times this season and went 10-1 in those games.
Outlook: Most folks will look at the series price and see Detroit just rolling a club that is happy to be in this spot. Those who judge the book by its cover will get burnt badly at the books. Phoenix is almost as old as the Wings and have enough guys with playoff experience to help the youngsters cope.
What I’m looking at in this series is Bryzgalov’s past playoff experience (only 16 postseason games with the Ducks) giving him a good edge over Howard. That will be huge in a series that will be hotly contested in each game.
Even though this is a tough draw for a first round matchup (just ask the Blue Jackets about last year’s playoff), it is hard for me not lo like the Coyotes winning this series in five games for an 8/1 payout from Bodog.
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