Eastern Conference Final Preview
By Judd Hall
No. 7 Philadelphia Flyers vs. No. 8 Montreal Canadiens
Series Price: Philadelphia -115, Montreal -105
Series Format: Philadelphia, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: If you had this pairing meeting up for a spot in the Stanley Cup Final, then you need to immediately buy me a Powerball ticket. This is the first time that the seventh and eighth seeds are meeting up for a conference final.
The Canadiens weren’t guaranteed a spot in the playoffs until the final week of the regular season. But as we’ve seen time and time again in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, all you need is to get in and have a really hot goaltender.
Montreal has been riding on the back of netminder Jaroslav Halak for much of the postseason. Halak certainly hasn’t minded the workload as he has posted the best goals against average (2.42) and top save percentage (.933) of all the goalies that have played the full compliment of games in this tournament. He’s helped the Habs keep their penalty kill stop the opposition 85.5 percent of the time.
The Habs have also been blessed with Michael Cammalleri having his best postseason performance ever. Cammalleri has found the back of the net 12 times in the playoffs so far, seven of which came against the Penguins in the last round. Brian Gionta is showing his playoff acumen as well with seven lamp lighters.
Montreal is going to need all four of its lines to come through for scoring against the Flyers. Philadelphia is coming off of an epic comeback against the Bruins, using defense to wipe away a 0-3 deficit. Chris Pronger, Matt Carle, Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Coburn have made life lousy for the Devils and Bruins in the playoffs. But they are also averaging around 30 minutes on the ice for each game. One must wonder if that wear and tear will be effective against a speedier attack unit like the Canadiens possess.
Should Philly’s blueliners fail to match up, that will turn Michael Leighton into more of a sitting duck than a goaltender. Leighton has been thrust into the starting role after Brian Boucher was knocked out of the playoffs with a knee injury in the second round. He has performed well in his three appearances in the postseason, stopping 94 percent of the shots fired his way with a GAA of 1.54.
Of course, the Flyers might not need to rely on Leighton too much if their offense keeps firing away like they have been doing recently. Danny Briere has scored seven goals in the playoffs, but also found the back of the net four times during the regular season against the Habs. And Briere has played much better with Simon Gagne returning to the lineup after going down 0-3 to the B’s in the second round.
Gambling Notes: You’d normally take the team with home ice in the playoffs to give a slight edge. Problem with that thinking here is that these are two of the better road clubs in this postseason. Philly has gone 4-3 away from home, while the Canadiens are 5-3. Considering the Habs have done their road work against the likes of the high octane Caps and defending champion Penguin, they’re the one you need to keep an eye on.
Even if you aren’t looking to take Montreal on the money when games are at the Wachovia Center, consider taking them to keep it close. During the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Canadiens are 7-1 on the puck line (+1 ½-goals) in road meetings and 18-3 since the end of January.
Philadelphia has been tough to knock out at home as of late. The Flyers have gone 19-7 since the start of the New Year at that Wachovia Center, covering the puck line in 10 of those spots.
Outlook: Montreal has an opportunistic offense and a hot goaltender. Philadelphia has a more complete club from top to bottom, but are hampered with an unknown variable between the pipes. Leighton has done well in the short amount of work he has had in the playoffs. Yet I can’t help but think the defense in front of him will wear down against an attack that is making the most of its chances. I’m taking Halak and the Canadiens to keep their dream season going by claiming the Prince of Wales Trophy in six games.
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