Eastern Conference Playoff Preview
By RYAN STETSON
Just because you’re a causal NHL fan who doesn’t tune in until the postseason doesn’t mean you can’t bet the playoffs like a seasoned pro.
We break down teams, players and matchups with value.
Best under-the-radar hockey pool picks:
Any casual puck fan can hang around in a hockey pool while the big names are going off the board, but it’s usually your middle and late-round picks that make all the difference.
Derek Roy – Buffalo’s a very dangerous playoff team, especially if Roy keeps his hot streak going. He put up 20 points over the last month and should be aided by the return of Thomas Vanek, who potted four goals on Saturday in his first game back from a groin injury. We all know what Ryan Miller is capable of after the Olympics. The Sabres could be a tough out.
Zach Parise – Ilya Kovalchuk is top dog in Jersey, but don’t forget about the shifty Parise. He had a bit of a down year (by his standards anyway), banking 81 points after a 94-point campaign last year. The Devils are rounding into playoff form and are feeling more comfortable with Kovalchuk every day. Now that teams need to target Kovy, Parise’s getting more room to operate.
A top seed in for a tough ride in Round 1:
Washington has all the skill and veteran leadership to make a deep run in the playoffs. What the Caps don’t have though, is consistent goaltending or any type of comfort level in their own end. The rest of the league knows it too.
R.J. Umberger of the Blue Jackets made some waves by saying “a good team will beat them in the playoffs... they play the wrong way.” He has a point.
Semin and Ovechkin spend a lot of time circling in the neutral zone looking for breakaways and it’s a little concerning how this pair finished the regular season. Both need to get back to driving to the net and maybe it’s just a matter of flicking the playoff switch.
Still, a disciplined team that stays out of the penalty box and limits odd-man rushes could bounce Washington. Remember, the Rangers had the Caps down 3-1 in the first round last year before Washington woke up.
They’re better equipped in the leadership and experience departments this time, but don’t give them a free pass to the Conference finals just yet.
Watch out for the lower seeds:
New York/Philadelphia, Montreal and Boston have already been playing playoff hockey for weeks now, so don’t be surprised if teams like these jump out to early leads in their respective series. All of these teams have a strong veteran presence who know what it takes to win in the playoffs.
Which goaltender will steal the show:
The last goaltender any team wants to face right now is Ryan Miller. He held his Sabres in games all year long and only seems to get better under pressure, as everyone saw at the Olympics.
Not only does he make all the big saves, but he’s one of those goalies who is always very involved in the play, moving the puck and directing traffic. That makes a lot of the little things in a team’s own end a lot easier, especially when you’re in the playoff pressure cooker. Miller is also a huge reason why Buffalo’s penalty kill (86.8 percent) is so good.
At +1200 to win the Cup, Buffalo’s a great sleeper pick.
Can the Penguins repeat?
Absolutely, but they say it’s tougher the second time around for a reason. And don't forget - the Penguins went all the way to the Stanley Cup finals before losing to the Red Wings two years ago also. Making it to the finals a third year in a row is a tall order.
Sidney Crosby has taken charge this year and it’s been amazing to see how he’s changed his game. Now the Pens need Evgeni Malkin to do the exact same thing. He needs to put a frustrating regular season behind him and put it into another gear for the playoffs.
There are some good signs. He’s back-checking a lot more over the last couple of weeks, which forces turnovers in dangerous areas and creates odd-man rushes. If Geno gets going, the Pens are definitely the class of the Eastern Conference, priced at +500 to repeat as champions.
Best home team bets:
When it comes to defending your home turf, Washington, Ottawa and New Jersey lead the way in the Eastern Conference. The Capitals lost only five times at home in the regular season, Ottawa is really hitting its stride at the right time, and New Jersey is always a tough place to steal a win with the ageless Martin Brodeur in goal.
Not surprisingly, the teams still battling it out for the final few seeds are also among the poorer home teams – Boston, New York, Montreal.
NHL Playoff Betting Preview - Eastern Conference
Doug Upstone
Normally, there would be a great deal of clamor about a young, though veteran squad that was seeking a second straight Stanley Cup and third consecutive appearance in the finals. However, all is quiet about Pittsburgh on the Eastern Conference front with the season Washington had. The Capitals are the most dominating offensive team in hockey, as they scored 96 more goals than No. 2 seed New Jersey (allowed 42 more) and the second best scoring team was Vancouver, who was a distant 46 goals behind. If defense wins championships, then Washington is the wrong choice in a conference with only three teams with legit chance to play for Stanley Cup. All lines courtesy of Betonline.com.
1. Washington vs (8) Montreal
How good has Washington been? The Caps are first team in four years to ring up 300 or more goals and have seven snipers that but the puck over the line 20 or more times. Alex Ovechkin is arguably the most dominating offensive player in the game and Mike Green led all NHL defenseman in points.
Washington was 30-11 at home, but six of those losses came in overtime. Rejuvenated Jose Theodore has been nearly unbeatable for three months, as his only three losses in 23 starts have come after three periods of play (20-0-3).
Sure Montreal comes in as the eighth seed, performing worse than Kate Gosselin on DWTS with three wins in last 11 outings, but those sweaters are still Le Bleu-Blanc-et-Rouge. The Canadiens might have an edge in speed in their offensive end, but they look like pip-squeaks compared the Washington blue-liners. That would leave Jaroslav Halak to have to stand on his head in net against Capitals onslaught.
These teams split four games, each winning on the others frozen pond, but Washington is the top overall choice to win the Cup at +275 and should sweep if focused and win in five if not, being better in all areas against Les Habitants.
Pick- Washington (-565) in four over Montreal (+465)
1. New Jersey vs (7) Philadelphia
Typically, the second seed would be thrilled their first round opponent had to fight until the 82nd game to make the postseason tournament, however that is not the case with New Jersey. The Devils had a devil of a time, losing five of six times to Philadelphia. New Jersey plays defensive-style, conceding the fewest goals at 2.3 per contest with the remarkable Martin Broduer in front of the cage. Offensively, the Devils are not imposing beyond Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk and they enter the playoffs 22-8 having won three of previous four.
The Flyers are better than what they showed losing eight of 12 (they did win three of final four to sneak in) to gain entry into the playoffs. Philadelphia has components that could lead to upset. Philly is ranked third in the league in power play conversion at 21.5 percent and a respectable 11th on penalty kills. Its not a coincidence the 06 Edmonton squad and 07 Anaheim club were in the finals with Chris Pronger manning the blue line, as he always elevates his play in the postseason. The wild card is third string goalie Brian Boucher, whose been forced to play with others injured. He helped the Flyers make the playoffs, can he lead the upset?
If Philadelphia can light the lamp on man-advantages and curtail New Jerseys chances, an upset is in the making.
Pick- Philadelphia (+195) in seven over New Jersey (-235)
1. Buffalo vs (6) Boston
Two teams from the old Adams Division (circa 1974-93) will chase the puck in the third of three first round division matchups. Both Buffalo and Boston had surprising seasons, the Sabres for winning the division with relative ease and the Bruins for scuffling just to make the playoffs after having the most points in the East last season. Watch the total in Buffalo, as these clubs are 8-1 UNDER.
The series is about finding bodies that can produce on the ice. Buffalo has players at less than 100 percent like Tim Connolly, Jochen Hecht and Drew Stafford, which means goalie extraordinaire Ryan Miller will play a key role in Buffalo advancement. If Miller can almost singlehandedly take the USA to Olympic gold, he can certainly contain Bostons feeble attack. The Sabres split four contests with division partner.
Boston has a number of players out and its hard to comprehend a team could be in playoffs after finishing 30th in goals scored, nonetheless, here the Bruins are. Boston suffered a 10-game losing streak from the middle of January into February. They had a stretch of scoring more than three goals once in 19 contests, yet managed to win six of last nine games (all losses by one goal). Coach Claude Julien had to do the unthinkable, turn his teams fortunes over to 22-year-old Tuukka Rask between the pipes. Though Rask was named starter just 39 times, he led the NHL in both goals-against average and save percentage.
Pick- Boston (+145) in six over Buffalo (-165)
1. Pittsburgh vs (5) Ottawa
Whether its an 8 vs. 9 in the NCAA basketball tournament or 4 vs. 5 in the NBA or hockey playoffs, the presumption is a tight game or series is the forecast. This however is not the case in this Eastern confrontation. The talented Penguins waddled thru the regular season and flip the switch in mid-April. After losing to Detroit in 2008 Finals, Pittsburgh was less than inspired the next season finishing fourth, the very same position they are in presently, on the way to being champions.
Pittsburgh has Sid Crosby and the defending NHL scoring champ Evgeni Malkin, who was hampered by injuries most of the season. He played in 66 games, but was a factor in maybe half and had an off year. Though Pitts often dynamic duo will receive light criticism for indifference during the regular season, no player is more emblematic of his team than enigmatic Marc-Andre Fleury. Hes a latter day Grant Fuhr of the Edmonton glory days with Wayne Gretzky and the gang.
Ottawa is more unstable than some of the people that sit with Dr. Phil. The Senators had 11-game winning streak right before Valentines Day and a six-game stretch without a defeat afterwards. Throw those in the blender with a four and two 5-game losing streaks and its easy to decipher Ottawa as having multiple personalities for extended periods. A bit of research dug up these facts about the Senators that are very telling about their mental makeup. Ottawa is 21-4 SU when leading after first 20 minutes and is 4-24 SU when trailing.
Pick- Pittsburgh (-275) in five over Ottawa (+235)