Gauging goalies worth to NHL odds
By T.O. WHENHAM
Injuries to elite NHL goaltenders have caused hockey handicappers headaches in recent weeks.
First, the ridiculously durable Martin Brodeur went down until at least February with an elbow injury.
Next, Roberto Luongo collapsed with a groin injury. Optimistic reports are that he'll be out for as little as a week, but a groin injury to a goalie is like a pitcher hurting his shoulder.
Those ailments have led bettors to consider what impact goalies have on lines and how to effectively compensate for these injuries and lesser ones, like Mike Smith in Tampa Bay or Rick DiPietro with the Islanders.
According to Randy Scott, sportsbook manager with betED.com, goalies are relevant to the setting of odds, but secondary to factors like opponents, location, date and record. Goalies play a bigger factor in setting the total. Those numbers are set using a points-for and points-against formula which always includes the starting goaltenders.
Scott says in certain situations the goalie is the most important player to base the game odds on. This is especially the case with a player like Brodeur. He'll not only be a big factor in the total but he can also be a big factor in the odds.
That's because Brodeur and a handful of players of his caliber get such respect from both oddsmakers and the betting public. Simply put, star goalies can win games by themselves.
The other way a standout goaltender can significantly impact a line is by taking the night off. If a line is set assuming that a star will start - a good assumption for Brodeur or Luongo who regularly play 70 games a season - and he doesn't at the last minute, then the odds change dramatically. The books' plans for the game go out the window and a new set of odds must be created.
Besides Luongo and Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist of the Rangers, Evgeni Nabokov of San Jose and Montreal's Carey Price have the most impact on the numbers. The second tier includes Miikka Kiprusoff, Chris Osgood and Marty Turco.
The biggest problem gauging injuries' affect on the line is that the books are forced to learn quickly. The scenario has changed significantly with the players out, but the books don't have much experience with the backups. Until they can get a reliable sample size of stats on the new starter, they have to rely on the team's defense and the plus/minus ratio.
Scott says that the public generally overcompensates in the case of an injury to a star goalie. Instead of betting against the team that has suffered the injury they tend to pass on the game altogether, regardless of the adjusted odds. That's unfortunate because, in Scott's experience, the oddsmakers also tend to overcompensate, providing good value for bettors if they were willing to take advantage of it.
Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach compares a goalie to a pitcher or a quarterback. Like those positions, the goalie is the one player that singularly has the ability to carry his team or doom it. As such, goalies are a big factor in Rickenbach's handicapping. Lack of faith in a player's form or his ability against an opponent is definitely enough to keep him off a game.
When it comes to the Brodeur and Luongo situations, Rickenbach suggested that the public's tendency would often be to fade the suddenly star-poor teams, but that doesn't always make sense. Depending on the play of the backup, the value may be in playing a team minus the starter.
San Jose made a bundle for bettors putting their trust in second-strong goaltender Brian Boucher after Nabokov went down November 6. The backup led the Sharks to a 5-2 record allowing just 2.5 goals during that stretch.
Rickenbach also gets the sense that the public generally overcompensates for big injuries. They can focus on the goalie situation and ignore other key factors like struggles on the penalty kill, success on the power play or taking too many penalties.
When it comes to impact goalies, Rickenbach added Minnesota's Niklas Backstrom. The system in Minnesota is very goalie-friendly and the handicapper feels comfortable when Backstrom is between the pipes.
"Just always remember that some goalies are streaky too,” warns Rickenbach. “Don't get too caught up in long-term data because I've always felt that current level of play means much more than historical data."
Docsports.com