Hockey Betting Trends
By: Barry Daniels
That is especially true of some early numbers that bettors waging on the 'total' have surely noticed.
The Colorado Avalanche and Atlanta Thrashers have played the most 'over' games, with the Avs having nine of their first 12 outings soar above the number and the Thrashers seeing nine of their first 13 contests skip north.
It should be noted that Atlanta has seen the 'over' cash in seven of its first eight road outings, while the 'under' is 3-2 at home. Colorado has seen the 'total' more evenly spread, with the 'over' going 5-2 on the road and 4-1 at home.
Seeing the 'over' cash in most of Colorado's first dozen games should not come as a surprise. The Avs are averaging a league-high 3.2 goals per game, but are allowing a bloated 3.5 GPG.
Most of Colorado's defensive deficiency has occurred when it has been shorthanded. The club is 29th on the penalty kill with just a 70 percent success rate. The Avs are also yielding an average of 32.3 shots on goal, which is the 24th poorest mark in the league.
Atlanta ranks ninth on offense by averaging three goals per game and 27th on defense by yielding 3.5 GPG. The Thrashers are allowing an average of 37.5 shots on goal per game, which ranks next to last.
Edmonton is the only other team with at least four more 'over' games than 'under' contests. The Oilers entered weekend action with the 'over' going 7-3, including 4-1 on enemy ice. Keeping the puck out of their own net has been the culprit, as the Oilers rank 29th on defense by allowing 3.6 goals per game.
The Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins lead the 'under' brigade.
The 'under' is 9-3 in Columbus' first 12 encounters thanks mostly to an offense that ranks 26th (2.4 GPG). The defense is allowing that same 2.4 average of goals against, which ranks ninth.
Montreal has seen the 'under' go 8-3-1 in its first 12 efforts, but that is only half the story. The 'under' has cashed in all six of Montreal's road games, with the 'over' going 3-2-1 at home. The Habs are scoring an average of just 2.4 goals per game and are yielding a meager 2.3 GPG (ranked seventh).
Boston has spread its 'under' games evenly both home (3-1) and on the road (3-1-1) thanks mainly to spectacular netminding. Tim Thomas ranks first in shutouts (3) wins (7) and goals against (0.72). That goalkeeping has helped the Bruins rank first in defense, allowing an average of just 1.4 GPG.
Ironically, the 'under' has still cashed in the majority of Boston games despite the club ranking second in goals scored at 3.2 per game.
Sometimes a team will play one style at home and another on the road, which will certainly influence the 'over/under' numbers. That seems to be the case so far with the Flyers, Maple Leafs and Red Wings.
Philadelphia has seen the 'under' cash in all four road games, while the 'over/under' is 4-4-1 in its nine home encounters.
Toronto is even more diversified. The 'over' is 4-1 in the squad's first five road tussles, but the 'under' is 6-1 in its initial seven home encounters.
Detroit seems to play a more wide-open game at home and a more cautious contest on the road. That is reflected early, with the 'under' going 4-0 on the road and the 'over' cashing in five of its first six games at Joe Louis Arena.