Tuesday's Ice Sheet
By Judd Hall
It may sound like a broken record, but favorites keep on winning in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The “chalk” went 27-21 in the Conference Quarterfinals and now posted a 5-3 mark at this point of the second round.
Now we’re going to see if a pair of teams that couldn’t steal home-ice advantage in the first two matches of their series can hold serve in Games 3 and 4.
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers
I figured that the Blueshirts would be able to ride their team defense into stealing one of the first two matches of this Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Instead, Pittsburgh is beating the Rangers at their own game by playing a punishing defense and making timely shots at goal.
The Pens’ Marc-Andre Fleury stopped all 26 shots fired his way in Game 2. He’s among the leaders for GAA in the playoffs at 1.51. Pittsburgh is also seeing Jordan Staal wake up from his season long slumber by putting in the game winner, his second of the playoffs. To give you an idea of how bad it was for Staal this year, he lit the lamp just 12 times in the regular season.
New York was stricken with the same issues that plagued them all year long: taking plenty of shots on goal, but nothing actually meeting the back of the net. It also bears noticing that the Rangers went 0-for-6 on the power play last Sunday and are of nine for the series. This was something of a strong point for the Blueshirts’ in their five-game series against the Devils.
So does this mean that the Rangers have no shot in hell in Game 3?
In some circles, the answer to that question is a resounding “yes.” However, Pittsburgh hasn’t won at Madison Square Garden since March 2007 and just three times in the last three seasons overall. That gives me no reason to think New York will come out of this contest without a victory.
San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars
This year’s edition of the San Jose Sharks meltdown is well underway. That might seem a bit unfair at the moment, but how else can one describe what’s happen to the Pacific Division champs?
The Sharks took a 2-1 lead into the third period, but once simple turnover to Brad Richards not only reignited his scoring touch, but practically sent their club to the brink of elimination. Part of the reason is making poorly timed turnovers, like the one that put Richards back into the fold for Dallas. Then you can also go the broken record route by saying their stars, like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, are nowhere to be found when it matters most.
As bad as things seem for San Jose, you have to give them a little look in Game 3 because it has been a solid road team all season long, going an NHL best 27-10-4 away from the HP Pavilion.
Another reason to look at fading the Stars in this situation is how similar this game is to what Anaheim did in the last round. Looked awful in the first two matches, but seemed to pull it all together in time to give the appearance of a closer series.
The Sharks are also 6-3 SU in their last nine meetings with the Stars at the American Airlines Center.
Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche
I think there is a very real possibility that the Avalanche will do whatever they can to make sure that Johan Franzen misses his flight to Colorado. Or maybe Jose Theodore has his face on a dart board back at the Pepsi Center.
Franzen has posted a team high seven goals in eight playoff games. Compare that to the 27 goals he had in the regular season and he’s tantamount to a one-man wrecking crew. And I’m going to give Chris Osgood some love by stopping 37 of 41 shots during this series with a 2.00 GAA.
The odds are very good that Detroit will be going for the sweep this week as they’re 3-1 in the last four trips out to Denver.
vegasinsider.com
NHL LONG SHEET
PITTSBURGH (53-27-0-8, 114 pts.) at NY RANGERS (46-29-0-14, 106 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 10-1 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game this season.
NY RANGERS are 16-7 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 53-35 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 33-17 ATS (+11.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 9-3 ATS (+12.2 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
PITTSBURGH is 24-17 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PITTSBURGH is 26-18 ATS (+54.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 46-43 ATS (+1.3 Units) in all games this season.
NY RANGERS are 10-12 ATS (-6.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
NY RANGERS are 111-132 ATS (-87.0 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 3-8 ATS (-8.0 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
NY RANGERS are 66-79 ATS (-43.0 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 69-85 ATS (-59.0 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 13-13 (+2.4 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 13-13-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
16 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.9 Units)
SAN JOSE (53-27-0-11, 117 pts.) at DALLAS (51-32-0-7, 109 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 16-18 ATS (-11.2 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
SAN JOSE is 15-18 ATS (-12.9 Units) after a division game this season.
SAN JOSE is 15-18 ATS (-11.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
DALLAS is 46-26 ATS (+8.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 24-16 ATS (+2.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 16-8 ATS (+24.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
SAN JOSE is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
SAN JOSE is 74-46 ATS (+23.8 Units) in April games since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 112-125 ATS (+275.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
DALLAS is 60-56 ATS (-59.3 Units) in home games after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 15-11 (+5.6 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 15-11-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
12 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.4 Units)
DETROIT (60-23-0-7, 127 pts.) at COLORADO (48-33-0-9, 105 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 61-66 ATS (-42.3 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
COLORADO is 28-11 ATS (+14.4 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 34-14 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 45-39 ATS (-2.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 30-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
DETROIT is 79-43 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 105-100 ATS (-59.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 12-2 (+9.1 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 12-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.4 Units)
NHL SHORT SHEET
Second Round
Game Three
Pitsburgh leads, 2-0
Pittsburgh at NY Rangers, 7:05 ET
Pittsburgh:
4-12 SU off division win
3-9 SU at NY Rangers
NY Rangers:
10-1 SU at home after scoring 1 goal or less
8-1 Over revenging shutout loss
Second Round
Game Two
Dallas Leads, 1-0
San Jose at Dallas, 7:35 ET
San Jose:
8-0 SU off home loss by 3+ goals
9-3 SU Away off BB division losses
Dallas:
22-11 Over vs. division
6-10 SU at home off road win scoring 4+ goals
Second Round
Game Three
Detroit Leads, 2-0
Detroit at Colorado, 10:05 ET
Detroit:
21-5 SU off BB Overs
44-15 SU off a win
Colorado:
2-12 SU vs. Detroit
6-0 Under after allowing 4+ goals BB games
Trend Sheet
7:00 PM PITTSBURGH vs. NY RANGERS
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 5 games
NY Rangers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games at home
7:30 PM SAN JOSE vs. DALLAS
San Jose is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Jose
10:00 PM DETROIT vs. COLORADO
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tuesday NHL Gameday
Joe Sakic and the Colorado Avalanche will be looking to get back into their series on Tuesday when they play host to the Detroit Red Wings. Here's your NHL Gameday . . .
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers
The Penguins swept the Senators in the first round of the playoffs, and they have yet to taste defeat in the second round against the division-rival Rangers. Pittsburgh began their set against New York last Friday night with a 5-4 comeback victory. The Pens were down 3-0 midway through that contest, but they stormed back and got the eventual game winner from Evgeni Malkin late in the third period. Game 2 on Sunday afternoon was a tighter affair, as Pens forward Jordan Staal scored the first goal of the contest 13 minutes into the second period. Adam Hall then iced the 2-0 win for Pittsburgh with an empty-net goal in the third period. Marc-Andre Fleury made 26 saves for the shutout for the Penguins, while Henrik Lundqvist stopped 30 of 31 shots between the pipes in the defeat for New York. Pens forward Gary Roberts sat out Sunday's win with a sore groin.
San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars
The Stars were the road underdog in Game 1 of their second-round series against the Sharks on Friday night, but Brenden Morrow's overtime goal gave them a 3-2 win. Morrow and Mike Modano scored for Dallas in regulation time, while Marty Turco made 25 saves. Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo had the goals for San Jose, and Evgeni Nabokov stopped just 15 of 18 Dallas shots. Nabokov had some trouble in Game 2 on Sunday night as well, as he surrendered three third-period goals in a 5-2 defeat. Niklas Hagman picked up two goals for the Stars in that win (one into an empty net), while Modano, Brad Richards, and Mike Ribeiro had the other markers. Michalek and Joe Pavelski scored for the Sharks, who had a 2-1 lead heading into the third period. Turco made 29 saves in the win, and Stars defenseman Sergei Zubov finally returned from injury. Sharks d-man Kyle McLaren is out indefinitely with a groin injury.
Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche
If the Avalanche are going to knock off the Red Wings in Game 3 they're going to have to get better goaltending from Jose Theodore. The netminder gave up four goals on 16 shots back in Game 1 before leaving with an illness, and he surrendered four more goals on 20 shots in Game 2 on Saturday. In the opener Johan Franzen scored twice and Henrik Zetterberg and Daniel Cleary added singles in a 4-3 win, with Chris Osgood stopping 18 of 21 Colorado shots. Franzen continued his heroics in Game 2, netting a hat trick to lead his team to an easy 5-1 victory. Zetterberg and Valtteri Filppula also scored for the Wings on that night, while Osgood made 19 saves. Avs forward Peter Forsberg (groin) and defenseman Scott Hannan (lower body) both missed Game 2 due to injury, and they have been listed as questionable for Game 3. Wings forward Kirk Maltby has been suffering from a hamstring injury and is questionable to play as well.
Tuesday's best NHL bets
COVERS.com
Pittsburgh vs. Rangers -130, 5
Something we’ve talked a lot about in Ice Picks over the past few weeks has been the quiet emergence of the Pens as one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. Pittsburgh has gone under the total in 10 of its last 13 games and the Rangers were reminded in Game 2 of just how tough it’s become to score on this squad.
The Rangers lost 2-0 Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh and they didn’t get much more than a sniff or two of a scoring chance. The Pens have allowed a ridiculous 1.5 goals per game throughout the playoffs and the best part for bettors is oddsmakers are still focused on Pittsburgh’s fire power, rather than its stifling play.
Four of the six Pittsburgh games these playoffs have seen over/unders of at least 5 ½ goals.
Pick: under
Detroit vs. Colorado -110, 5
In the last round, Detroit jumped out to a 2-0 series lead at home against Nashville. Then the Wings lost two straight and Hockeytowners started hyperventilating.
The team says it is focused on not letting the same thing happen when this series heads back to Denver. The Pepsi Center is a tough building because of its great crowd and the Wings hope to combat any altitude issues by arriving in the Rockies on Sunday, two days ahead of game time.
The biggest factor for Game 3, though, could be Peter Forsberg. He missed the first two games of this series with a groin injury after being one of the Avs’ best sparkplugs in the first round against Minnesota. He is listed as day-to-day and Colorado could use an energy boost after getting beaten all over the ice in Games 1 and 2.
A good sign for Colorado is that he skated in the warm-up before Saturday’s game. If Forsberg doesn’t play, beating Detroit is going to be tough and Avs will need someone else to fill the void.
The series price has adjusted accordingly and the Wings are now higher than -800 if you want to back them.
Pick: Red Wings