NHL knowledge
Tampa Bay-Pittsburgh
Lightning won first two series in five games each; they're 3-1 on road in playoffs. Pittsburgh won first round in five games, last round in six; they're 5-1 at home in playoffs. Tampa Bay won four of its last five games with Penguins, but losing three of last four played in Igloo. Last seven series games got over total (over 9-1 in last 10). Under is 4-2-2 in last eight Tampa Bay games, over is 3-0-2 in last five games played in Pittsburgh. Lightning last played on Sunday; Penguins last played on Tuesday.
Playoffs tally: 1st round-- Home: 23-24, Over: 16-17-14
2nd round-- Home: 16-9, Over: 11-5-9
Armadillosports.com
NHL Conference Finals Betting Preview: Lightning at Penguins
By Covers.com
Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins (A: +155, H: -175, O/U: 5)
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been the hottest team in the NHL over the past two months and hope to pass another test when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Penguins went 14-2-0 to end the regular season before knocking off the New York Rangers and the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Washington Capitals in the postseason.
“I think if you look at us, we kept improving as the year went on,” Pittsburgh defenseman Kris Letang told reporters. “I think we have to look at what we were capable of doing in the last few weeks and keep building on that.” The Penguins have made the conference final for the first time since 2013 with balanced scoring, improved defense and rookie goalie Matt Murray’s solid play that has kept veteran Marc-Andre Fleury on the bench. Pittsburgh must find a way to contain a lethal Tampa Bay offense that is led by Nikita Kucherov (nine goals, 12 points) and Tyler Johnson (13 points) while the Lightning’s top-pair defenseman Anton Stralman (broken fibula) and captain Steven Stamkos (blood clot) could return at some point in the series. Tampa Bay beat the Penguins three straight in the regular season, but were outshot 109-74 combined and Lightning coach Jon Cooper told reporters, “the way they were playing then to where they’re playing now is completely different.”
PROBABLE GOALIES:
Lightning - Ben Bishop (W/L: 8-2, GAA: 1.89, SAVE %: .928)
Penguins - Matthew Murray (W/L: 7-2, GAA: 2.05, SAVE %: .932)
ABOUT THE LIGHTNING (54-33-5, 37-43 O/U): Stralman has gone through full practice the last few days, but told reporters the leg “is not perfect,” and versatile forward J.T. Brown (upper body) could be back in the lineup after missing almost a month. While Kucherov, Johnson, Alex Killorn (nine points) and the emergence of Jonathan Drouin (eight assists) have played a big part, 6-foot-6 defenseman Victor Hedman was the key figure in the second-round series victory over the New York Islanders – holding captain John Tavares without a point the last four games and recording eight. “When the big boy’s rolling, we feed off that,” Cooper told reporters.
ABOUT THE PENGUINS (56-28-9, 41-35 O/U): It will be difficult for Cooper to pick which line Hedman will go up against the most because Pittsburgh’s four forward units have all produced in the postseason with three of them represented among the top four scorers. Sidney Crosby (10 points) and Evgeni Malkin (nine) each center a line while the trio of Phil Kessel (five goals, 12 points), Nick Bonino (eight assists) and Carl Hagelin may be their best in the playoffs thus far. “We really like how that line has come together,” Penguins coach Mike Sullivan told reporters of Bonino’s unit. “It allows us to kind of spread out talent a bit and create more balance.”
TRENDS:
* Lightning are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Penguins are 17-4 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-2-1 in Lightning last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Lightning are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh.
CONSENSUS: The public is hammering the Pittsburgh Penguins at a rate of 71 percent and the over is picking up a very sturdy 79 percent of the wagers.
Eastern Conference Finals
By Alex Smith
VegasInsider.com
Head-to-Head Meetings (2013-2016)
Feb. 20, 2016 - Tampa Bay 4 at Pittsburgh 2 (Lightning -105, Over 5)
Feb. 5, 2016 - Pittsburgh 3 at Tampa Bay 6 (Lightning -115, Over 5)
Jan. 15, 2016 - Pittsburgh 4 at Tampa Bay 5 (Lightning -130, Over 5)
Jan. 2, 2015 - Tampa Bay 3 at Pittsburgh 6 (Penguins -120, Over 5.5)
Dec. 23, 2014 - Pittsburgh 3 at Tampa Bay 4 (Lightning -130, Over 5.5)
Dec. 15, 2014 - Tampa Bay 2 at Pittsburgh 4 (Penguins -120, Over 5.5)
Mar. 22, 2014 - Tampa Bay 3 at Pittsburgh 4 (Penguins -165, Over 5.5)
Nov. 29, 2013 - Pittsburgh 3 at Tampa Bay 0 (Penguins -135, Under 5.5)
Oct. 12, 2013 - Pittsburgh 5 at Tampa Bay 4 (Penguins -115, Over 5.5)
Apr. 11, 2013 - Pittsburgh 6 at Tampa Bay 3 (Penguins -120, Over 5.5)
Tampa Bay Recent Trends
6-7 SU Last 13 Road Games
8-2 SU Last 10 Games as a Favorite
6-1 SU Last 7 Home Games
Team has held opponents to 2 goals or fewer in 9 of last 12 games
Penalty Kill Unit: 38/45 (88.4%) this postseason (#1 among remaining teams)
Starting Goalie
Ben Bishop: 14-4 SU Last 18 Starts Overall
Lifetime Record vs Pitt: 2-2, 3.97 G.A.A; .884 Sv% in 7 GP
Pittsburgh Recent Trends
22-7 SU Last 29 Games Overall
8-1 SU Last 9 Home Games
6-1 SU Last 7 Games as a Favorite
5-3-3 O/U Last 11 Games Overall
Power Play Unit: 11/40 (27.5%) this postseason (#1 among remaining teams)
Starting Goalie
Matt Murray: 16-5 SU in 21 GS (Season & Playoffs combined)
Lifetime Record vs TB: First-ever meeting
Series Odds
Lightning +185
Penguins -220
Exact Game Props
5 Games Penguins Win 5/2
7 Games Penguins Win 3/1
6 Games Penguins Win 7/2
6 Games Lightning Win 6/1
4 Games Penguins Win 7/1
7 Games Lightning Win 7/1
5 Games Lightning Win 8/1
4 Games Lightning Win 18/1
TAMPA BAY (54-33-0-5, 113 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (56-28-0-9, 121 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 12-22 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 16-26 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 56-37 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 23-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
PITTSBURGH is 38-18 ATS (+9.1 Units) second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 12-3 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 36-18 ATS (+9.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 200-209 ATS (+444.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
PITTSBURGH is 45-53 ATS (-30.2 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 5-4 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+7.1 Units)
TAMPA BAY vs. PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay: 2-10 SU as an underdog
Pittsburgh: 13-4 SU after 3 consecutive division games