NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, November 10th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Ottawa won three of last four games with Colorado; they’re 2-3 in last five visits to Denver. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Senators lost three of last four games; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss in a SO. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Avalanche won three of last four games overall, three in row at home. Last seven Colorado games went over the total.
Columbus won three of last four games with Carolina; last two meetings went OT. Last four series games stayed under total. Hurricanes won three of last five visits to Ohio, but lost last two. Carolina lost six of last eight games overall, three of last four on road; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Columbus lost its last three games but won three of last four at home. Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Penguins won six of last nine games with Washington; road team won six of last eight series games. Pittsburgh won four of last five games in this building. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. Penguins lost four of last six games overall, five of last six on road. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Washington won three of last four games; four of their last five games stayed under total. Caps are 3-3 at home this season.
Toronto won its last four games with Boston; under is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Bruins lost 4-2/4-1 in last two games in this building. Boston is 1-4 on road (over 4-1); they’re 5-2 in game following a loss. Maple Leafs won their last two games after a 1-5 skid; they’re 6-3 at home this season. Over is 3-0-1 in Toronto’s last four games.
Florida won seven of last ten games with Buffalo; they’re 3-2 in last five games in this building. Over is 4-2 in last six series games. Panthers lost their last five games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Florida lost three of last four road games. Sabres are 2-3 in their last five games; they split last four home games. over is 5-3-1 in Buffalo’s last nine games.
Islanders won six of last eight games with Dallas (over 5-3). New York won three of last five visits to Texas. Islanders won six of last nine games; they split last four road games. New York is 6-3 in its last nine games, 2-3 in their last five road games. Eight of Isles’ last nine games went over the total. Dallas Stars are 3-2 in last five games; they’re 5-2 at home. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Winnipeg won four of its last five games; their last four road games stayed under the total. Jets won 4-1/2-1 in their last two road tilts. Las Vegas is back home after a 1-5 road trip; they’re 6-1 at home. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
MORNING LINE REPORT
Happy Friday! For those who have to work today I would recommend getting everything done quickly this morning so you can check out of the office early because we have afternoon hockey – from Sweden! Ottawa and Colorado will kick things off today and it should be a fun one with Matt Duchene dressing as a Senator for the first time. We won’t have a play on this one unfortunately but it will still be great to have a game to watch this afternoon and I’m sure the fans alone will be worth tuning in for. European fans are always loud and eccentric during international hockey games and I’m sure the locals will be out in force today to cheer on hometown boys Erik Karlsson and Gabriel Landeskog.
Tonight’s card is going to be a bit tricky as 11 of the 14 teams in action play the first half of a back-to-back but I was able to get a few of the goaltenders confirmed and some others a pretty good guess on. Three of our plays today are tight to the cut-off so make sure to get them in early!
OTTAWA SENATORS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE (Stockholm, Sweden)
Projected Goaltenders
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)
Colorado – Semyon Varlamov (confirmed)
Injury Report
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Ryan (out), Borowiecki (out)
Colorado – Jost (out), Nemeth (out), Compher (in), Wilson (in)
Ottawa and Colorado will open a two game set in Stockholm, Sweden at Ericsson Globe for the NHL’s new Global Series showcase in what will be an early matinee game in our time zone. The plot lines for this series are plentiful but the biggest focal point will be on former Avs and new Senators forward, Matt Duchene, who will ironically play his first game against his old team.
Duchene will center the top line and will play with Zack Smith and Mike Hoffman who will jump up from the third line. Derick Brassard will remain at the number two center position between Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. Craig Anderson will start in net with Mike Condon playing tomorrow.
On the Avs side, the centerpiece in the big trade was defenseman Samuel Girard who will immediately slot in on Colorado’s top pair beside Tyson Barrie.
Colorado will also have some fresh bodies back in the lineup today as J.T. Compher and Colin Wilson will play. Tyson Jost skated in a regular jersey this morning but will remain out at least one more game.
Semyon Varlamov was the first goalie off the ice this morning and will start in net. Bednar said he wasn’t sure if Bernier would play tomorrow or if they would give Varlamov both games.
The line looks fine for this one and as much as we’d love to have some rooting interest in a Friday afternoon game, we’ll sit this one out and pick some better spots.
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
Projected Goaltenders
Carolina – Scott Darling/Cam Ward (unknown)
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky/Joonas Korpisalo (unknown)
Injury Report
Carolina – Stempniak (out), Pesce (probable)
Columbus – Calvert (out)
The Carolina Hurricanes snapped a four game losing streak with a 3-1 home win over Florida on Tuesday and are likely to have the other half of their dominant shutdown pair back on defense tonight. Brett Pesce fully practiced on Thursday and rookie Roland McKeown was sent back down to Charlotte which likely means Pesce will be activated today and play tonight. He missed the last three games with a concussion.
Forward Lee Stempniak has yet to play a game this season but was finally activated off the IR and sent to Charlotte for a conditioning stint.
Carolina returns home to play Chicago tomorrow and I haven’t heard how Peters will play his goaltenders this weekend so we’ll wait and see later this morning.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are suddenly in a rut after losing their third straight game on Tuesday, a 3-1 home loss to Nashville. I’m not really sure what’s wrong with the Jackets right now. Their underlying numbers still seem to be pretty good so I’m not too concerned about this current streak being anything to really worry about. Young players like Oliver Bjorkstrand, Sonny Milano and Josh Anderson are playing really well which was a big key for them this season but they need more from their more established players. Brandon Dubinsky has just one goal and five points in 16 games while Artemi Panarin has back-to-back 30+ goal seasons but is well off that mark with just two in 16 games so far.
Columbus travels to Detroit for a game tomorrow so we’ll wait to see how Tortorella splits up the goaltending but I would expect Bobrovsky to play tonight.
This line WAS right where it should be when I originally wrote this game today but a stiff move on Carolina just before 8 a.m. EST has taken it too low and we suddenly have a touch of value on Columbus. The Jackets haven’t been kind to us lately but we’ll hope they can get back on track for us tonight.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray/Tristan Jarry (unknown)
Washington – Braden Holtby (likely)
Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Hunwick (probable)
Washington – Burakovsky (out), Niskanen (out), Connolly (doubtful)
The Pittsburgh Penguins pushed their home record to 5-0-1 with Tuesday’s 3-1 win over Arizona in a game where Justin Schultz returned and was an instant boost to the offense. Another defenseman is likely to return tonight after Matt Hunwick was a full participant in practice yesterday. The Penguins are mostly completely healthy again (except for Carter Rowney) and hopefully that will signal the beginning of some better luck.
Pittsburgh seems to be playing pretty well lately but their underlying numbers are shockingly low and we should expect a positive correction in the near future, which is scary for a team already sitting in a tie with New Jersey atop the Metro division standings. For a team with as many snipers as the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions have, it’s shocking to see the Pens sitting dead last in the league with just a 4.64 shooting percentage at 5-on-5. They also has an NHL-low .891 save percentage at 5-on-5 play. A good chunk of the poor save percentage numbers can be attributed to Antti Niemi’s horrendous starts when he was with the team but Matt Murray isn’t much better at just a .899 5-on-5 percentage.
As far as the ridiculously low shooting percentage, this team is just too good to think they could continue to be this unlucky. Sidney Crosby has gone nine straight without a goal which is even sillier so I would expect him to have a breakout game in the near future. Tonight would be a good place to start.
The Washington Capitals three game win streak was halted with Tuesday’s 3-1 loss at Buffalo. The Capitals looked all kinds of out of sorts in that one as they continue to miss Matt Niskanen on the defensive end. Niskanen returned to practice on Thursday for the first time in a non-contact jersey and should return soon but isn’t expected to play until at least Sunday. Brett Connolly also returned to practice for the first time since going through concussion protocol two weeks ago and wasn’t limited. He’s been cleared to play but Trotz thought it was unlikely he would play tonight and was shooting more for a return on Sunday.
The Capitals are just one of three teams not starting a back-to-back tonight so we should see Holtby in net.
Washington continues to be our cash cow here whether for or against and we’ve got some value against them again tonight so we’ll play the Penguins. This is my favorite play of the night so I would be okay recommending this one right up to the cut-off of my range at -108. [UPDATE: Two minutes before I was ready to submit this morning there was a surprising line move towards Pittsburgh taking this from +102 to -103. There’s never line moves at this time so that’s annoying… anyway my original recommendation of playing this up to the cut-off is now an official stance I guess. Lock the Pens in]
BOSTON BRUINS @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Projected Goaltenders
Boston – Anton Khudobin (likely)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen/Curtis McElhinney (unknown)
Injury Report
Boston – Krejci (out), Backes (out), Spooner (out), McQuaid (out), Marchand (questionable)
Toronto – Matthews (questionable), Gardiner (probable)
The Boston Bruins have yet to win back-to-back games this season after another failed attempt in Wednesday’s 4-2 loss at Madison Square Garden. They’ll open a home-and-home with Toronto this weekend and Cassidy said he’ll split the goaltending duties with Khudobin likely going tonight to give Rask an extra day of rest. A final decision will be made this morning.
There’s no line available yet for this game and that’s because there’s significant injury concerns on both sides with Brad Marchand and the Leafs’ Auston Matthews questionable. Marchand didn’t travel with the team to Canada as he continued to go through concussion protocol and while it sounds like he’s unlikely to play tonight, Cassidy hasn’t ruled him completely out as he could be medically cleared this morning and fly to Toronto. David Krejci is getting closer to a return as he continues skating but has been ruled out for both games this weekend.
The Toronto Maple Leafs won their second game in a row on home ice this week with Wednesday’s 4-2 win over Minnesota in a game where Frederik Andersen was absolutely brilliant and stole two points. The Leafs defense continues to be a mess and Andersen’s play this week has masked a couple of otherwise poor performances.
Mike Babcock has been all over the place in regards to a prognosis for Auston Matthews who missed Wednesday’s game, Thursday’s practice and is questionable for tonight. I’m not liking his chances to play tonight but we’ll have to see what happens this morning.
Defenseman Jake Gardiner missed Thursday’s practice as well as Frederik Andersen but Babcock chalked both up to a maintenance day. We’ll see what happens at the morning skate and where the line opens and then reassess things for this one. My number feels really short though at just -129 on the high side. I’ve been having some difficulty setting lines with this Leafs team so I might just sit this one out regardless of who plays.
FLORIDA PANTHERS @ BUFFALO SABRES
Projected Goaltenders
Florida – Roberto Luongo (likely)
Buffalo – Robin Lehner (confirmed)
Injury Report
Florida – no significant injuries
Buffalo – Josefson (out), Bogosian (out), Ristolainen (out), Beaulieu (likely)
The Florida Panthers are losers of five straight and occupy the basement in the Eastern Conference with just ten points and a disappointing 4-8-2 record. Life on the road has been difficult with just one win in six tries and only one of those losses has been by less than two goals.
The main problem for the Panthers has been their inability to keep the puck out of their own net. Florida has allowed over 38 shots per game, the worst mark in the NHL, which has led to an NHL-high 4.21 goals allowed per game. It’s only been 14 games but if those numbers were to hold up for the duration of the season, the goals allowed would be the worst average the NHL has seen since the 1995-96 Sharks and the shots would be the highest average allowed in 43 years! Maybe they shouldn’t have traded defenseman Jason Demers in training camp. Just a thought.
Defenseman Mike Matheson missed Tuesday’s game but is expected to return tonight while forward Jared McCann is expected to miss his second straight game.
The Buffalo Sabres sit just atop the Panthers in the Eastern Conference standings but are trending in a different direction with two wins in their last three games after Tuesday’s 3-1 win over Washington and are set to get some healthy bodies back in the lineup this weekend.
Defenseman Nathan Beaulieu is likely to return tonight after a full practice yesterday which included time with the second powerplay unit. Beaulieu has missed the last seven games and is an underrated player who will be a big help. Josh Gorges also said he was good to go after missing eight games. One negative is Rasmus Ristolainen has been downgraded to week-to-week and is expected to be out longer than anticipated.
Robin Lehner will get the start in net tonight for the Sabres’ Military Appreciation Night. Lehner will wear a customized jersey during warmups with the nameplate “C.Lehner” in honor of K-9 Officer Craig Lehner who drowned during a training exercise last month.
This line is a shade high but it’s nothing crazy and there’s not enough value for me to jump on Florida yet. We’ll see where it moves this morning but we’ll probably sit this one out.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ DALLAS STARS
Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Thomas Greiss/Jaroslav Halak (unknown)
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Injury Report
NY Islanders – Kulemin (out)
Dallas – Ritchie (doubtful), Faksa (doubtful), Pitlick (doubtful), Methot (doubtful)
The New York Islanders dropped a 2-1 overtime decision to Edmonton on Tuesday in a game where they were the better team for most of the night. They’ll play a back-to-back this weekend in the Midwest and Weight said he’ll split the goaltending starts between Greiss and Halak but was unsure who would start tonight.
Mathew Barzal continues to dazzle as a rookie as he picked up his 11th assist on Tuesday, one off the rookie lead. His move around Oscar Klefbom was one of the highlights of the year. He and Jordan Eberle continue to look great together and it’s nice to see a refreshed Eberle exceling in his new home (unless you’re an Oilers fan).
The Dallas Stars lost to the Winnipeg Jets for the second time in less than a week after Monday’s 4-1 loss. The Stars have been off for the past four days so will be well rested for tonight’s finale of a three game homestand.
Dallas will likely be a little shorthanded tonight as Marc Methot has missed the last two practices with a lower-body injury. Hitchcock said he is “probably going to miss the game”. Forwards Brett Ritchie, Tyler Pitlick skated in a non-contact jersey and Radek Faksa skated on his own prior to Thursday’s practice but Hitchcock didn’t think any of them would be ready for tonight. All three will skate again this morning before officially being ruled in or out.
Hitchcock made some significant changes to his lines this week and says they will be used tonight. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin have been separated with Benn centering his own line now with Alexander Radulov and Gemel Smith. Seguin will center Matthias Janmark and Devin Shore. Hitchcock said he wants a better one-two punch down the middle.
Kari Lehtonen was scheduled to start tonight but has been out this week with an illness so Ben Bishop will get the start.
This line opened a bit short and has moved even further away overnight. I would expect this to go back up on Dallas so hopefully we can get this one locked in early enough.
WINNIPEG JETS @ VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Projected Goaltenders
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (confirmed)
Vegas – Maxime Lagace (confirmed)
Injury Report
Winnipeg – Perreault (out)
Vegas – no significant injuries (other than goaltenders)
The Winnipeg Jets kicked off a three game road trip with Monday’s 4-1 win at Dallas and then traveled to Vegas where they’ve been enjoying themselves since Tuesday. After spending three full days off enjoying the bright lights of Vegas it will be interesting to see if the Jets can get off to a fast start like they have been doing all season. Winnipeg currently leads the NHL in first period scoring differential with a +14.
The Jets top line has been on an absolute tear with underrated center Mark Scheifele leading the way. Scheifele isn’t as well recognized playing in Winnipeg but he’s quietly become one of the very best centers in the entire NHL. He has nine goals and 18 points in 14 games this season. Linemate Blake Wheeler is on a big time heater of his own right now with 13 points in the last five games. When your top line is performing at that high a level it’s easier to mask the inefficiencies of the bottom six who continue to struggle with contributions.
I’m still not sold on the Jets being as good as they’ve been but their success is likely to continue for a couple more weeks as the schedule isn’t the most challenging. At the end of this month they’ll begin their toughest stretch of the season with 15 games in 28 days and I’ll be looking at plenty of opportunities to fade them over that time.
The Vegas Golden Knights are finally through their grueling road trip and return to the comfort of T-Mobile Arena where they are 6-1-0. The Knights finished the six game, nine night trip with a 1-4-1 record after Tuesday’s 3-2 loss at Montreal.
You have to give the Knights a lot of credit though as they fought hard in comeback efforts against the Bruins, Leafs and Canadiens which all just fell short.
Maxime Lagace has played well considering the circumstances but he’s clearly not ready to be in the NHL full-time. He’ll have to hold the fort a while longer though as Marc-Andre Fleury and Oscar Dansk continue to miss practice. The Knights are off until Tuesday after this game and they are unsure if either will be ready to travel with the team to Edmonton.
The Vadim Shipachyov saga is finally over with as papers were finalized on Thursday which officially sees Shipachyov become the first ever player retired from the franchise. He’ll return home to play in Russia but he won’t be taking much money with him. The good news for Vegas is they get his $9M in salary back into their pocket and also most of a $2 million signing bonus, as well. Vegas will retain Shipachyov’s rights for the next five years so don’t expect to see him back in the NHL with another club anytime soon. One comment I found interesting from George McPhee was that he had a trade worked out with another team but Shipachyov didn’t want to stay in North America. It’s unfortunate that situation couldn’t have ended better.
This isn’t a great spot for either team but with the Jets current run this line is maybe just a touch inflated on the visitor side. We can play Vegas here down to +116 and you should be able to find them widely available this morning between +118 and +122. If it dips below that just keep an eye on it. The Jets are a pretty popular play lately so I imagine you can get a better number later.