NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, October 20th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Road team won 6 of last 7 San Jose-New Jersey games; Sharks won their last five games in the Garden State. Under is 3-0-1 in last four series games. This is road opener for a San Jose team that started season with a 2-3 homestand (over 2-2-1). Devils are off to a 6-1 start after an OT win in Ottawa last nite- they’re 2-0 at home. Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Home side won 6 of last 7 Vancouver-Buffalo games; Canucks lost three of last five visits to western NY. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Vancouver lost 6-3 in Boston last night; they’re 1-4 in their last five games- three of their last four games went over. Sabres lost six of its first seven games- they’re 0-2 at home. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Home side won 5 of last 6 Washington-Detroit games; Caps won 4 of last 5 series games- three of those five games went OT/SO. Washington split its last four games in Motor City- they’ve lost four of last five games. Over is 5-2 in their games this season. Red Wings are 4-3 but they lost their last two games; they split two home games. Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Penguins won 7 of last 8 games with Florida; they split last four games in this building. Over is 4-2-3 in last nine series games. Pittsburgh won four of their last five games, with last three going over total- they split their four road games. Panthers won 5-2/5-4 in their two home games, but lost their three road games. All five Florida games went over the total.
Minnesota won 4 of its last 5 games with Winnipeg; five of last six series games went over total. Wild are 2-3 in their last five visits to Manitoba. Minnesota lost 3 of their first 4 games; their last two losses were in SO/OT- all four of their games went over total. Winnipeg won three of its last four games; five of their six games went over. Jets lost two of their three home games.
Home side won last five Montreal-Anaheim games; Ducks won four of last six meetings. Under is 6-3 in last nine series games. Canadiens lost last three visits here, scoring total of 4 goals. Montreal was outscored 25-8 in losing their last six games, last three of which went over total- they’re 1-4 on the road. Anaheim lost four of its last five games, all of which stayed under.
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
MORNING LINE REPORT
We hit another nice (lucky) underdog winner last night with the Devils erasing a two goal third period deficit and winning the coin flip in overtime. The Twitter additions split with the Bruins an easy winner and the Avalanche a disappointing loser. Those pesky Blues continue to make a fool of me (shakes fist angrily).
We have one solid play for tonight ready to go so let’s get into tonight’s games and see what else to look for.
SAN JOSE SHARKS @ NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Projected Goaltenders
San Jose – Martin Jones/Aaron Dell (unknown)
New Jersey – Keith Kinkaid (confirmed)
Injury Report
San Jose – Martin (out)
New Jersey – Zajac (out), Boyle (out)
San Jose continued their home dominance over the Montreal Canadiens with Tuesday’s 5-2 win to cap a 2-3-0 opening homestand and now they’ll hit the road for a five game East Coast trip, beginning with the front half of a back-to-back here in New Jersey.
The Sharks finally looked like the team many were expecting to see this season but then again it was against Montreal and they’ve made everyone look like world-beaters so far. Kevin Labanc is tied for the team scoring lead with three goals and five total points. He’s looked comfortable on the top line beside Thornton and Pavelski and has filled a spot where the Sharks lacked consistency last year.
Defenseman Paul Martin suffered a recent setback with his ankle injury and did not make the trip with the team.
New Jersey had a huge third period comeback in Ottawa last night, erasing a 4-2 deficit and winning 5-4 in overtime. This Devils team just continues to impress as their new team speed has made a lot of teams uncomfortable. Nico Hischier was finally paired with Taylor Hall this week and he scored his first NHL goal last night, then added his second just 1:51 later. And Hall, well he had four assists and is probably ecstatic to finally have a talented linemate to play with. Hopefully Hynes keeps them together because they are a lot of fun to watch.
Keith Kinkaid was scheduled to start tonight on the back-to-back but it seems like he’ll have no choice now as Cory Schneider was hurt last night and exited after the second period. Kinkaid was brilliant in relief and made a couple of huge saves to keep the Devils in it. New Jersey will be off for a full week after this game in a weird early season schedule quirk which is good timing with the Schneider injury.
No line available yet here but with the Devils on the back-to-back and Kinkaid in net, the Sharks should be a decent sized road favorite. With New Jersey’s hot start though, I wouldn’t be surprised if this opens a bit lower and we have some value on San Jose tonight, making it the Sharks or nothing here.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS @ BUFFALO SABRES
Projected Goaltenders
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom (likely)
Buffalo – Robin Lehner/Chad Johnson (unknown)
Injury Report
Vancouver – Edler (out), Eriksson (out), Gudbranson (questionable)
Buffalo – Bogosian (out), Josefson (out), Girgensons (questionable), Lehner (questionable)
The Vancouver Canucks did not have much fun in Boston last night as an early boarding penalty and game ejection to defenseman Erik Gudbranson led to a five minute Bruins powerplay. Boston struck for three goals in 97 seconds to break open a 1-1 tie and cruised to an easy 6-3 victory.
The penalty kill had been an early strength for the Canucks but the wheels fell off last night allowing four markers. Anders Nilsson didn’t stand much chance and was pulled at the 11-minute mark. Markstrom took over and is likely to get the start tonight which won’t be ideal. Statistically, it’s been proven that goaltenders suffer overall when playing both ends of a back-to-back (particularly non-elite goaltenders) so that puts Vancouver in a tough spot.
The Canucks will once again be without Alex Edler and Loui Eriksson and now probably Gudbranson who will have a hearing with the Department of Player Safety for his boarding hit. Based on the hit, I would expect a game or two suspension. Gudbranson’s advanced possession metrics aren’t that great but he’s a key penalty killer and as we saw last night the Canucks really suffered without him.
The Buffalo Sabres have three players in the NHL top 15 scoring race with the top line of Eichel, Kane and Pominville causing havoc on a nightly basis. Unfortunately, the rest of the lineup has been wildly inconsistently and even invisible at times.
Goaltender Robin Lehner missed Thursday’s practice due to illness. Housley said he was feeling a little under the weather and they’ll see how he is today.
We had a fair bit of value on Buffalo at the -140 opener but unfortunately an overnight move has bumped it to -148 currently. If Lehner starts, that gives us a strong play. I personally really like Buffalo in this spot and I’m going to hope Lehner had a good night sleep and feels better this morning so I’m making this an official play. If Johnson were to start there’d still be a smidge of value (my range would be -150/-156).
WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ DETROIT RED WINGS
Projected Goaltenders
Washington – Braden Holtby/Philipp Grubauer (unknown)
Detroit – Jimmy Howard/Petr Mrazek (unknown)
Injury Report
Washington – Niskanen (out), Eller (probable)
Detroit – DeKeyser (out)
The Washington Capitals have dropped two straight and four of five as they start the first half of a back-to-back tonight. This isn’t the same President’s Trophy winning team as their off-season player losses are showing up early with their lack of depth. The loss of Matt Niskanen has forced an already scrambling defensive unit to rely on a number of unproven young defensemen as they strive to find some sort of cohesiveness.
The Capitals have become a very top-heavy team with 17 of their 22 goals scored by Ovechkin, Backstrom and Oshie. Barry Trotz is hoping to boost his secondary scoring so there will be some lineup changes for tonight. Andre Burakovsky has gone goalless through the first seven games and will be bumped down to the third line with Eller and Connolly while Tom Wilson gets promoted to the top line alongside Backstrom and Oshie. This was the Capitals main third line last year so hopefully it will reignite some chemistry and get Burakovsky going. It was hopeful he would be able to take on a bigger role this season but it hasn’t materialized yet.
The Detroit Red Wings have also lost two straight and a little shine has come off their hot start. It shouldn’t be too surprising as this is basically the same team as last year with the addition of veteran defenseman Trevor Daley but the continued absence of Andreas Athanasiou. Jimmy Howard was pulled after allowing three goals on the first four shots at Toronto and Petr Mrazek allowed two goals on 21 shots in relief.
This was supposed to be a sort of litmus test for the Wings this week with a step up in competition against Tampa Bay, Toronto and now Washington. They’re 0-2 so far so there should be a bit of urgency here tonight.
I haven’t seen anything on starting goaltenders here so I made the line with Holtby/Howard. The Caps start a back-to-back and Howard has struggled this week so the backups could get the call. I don’t have much interest in a side here so we’ll likely sit this one out.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ FLORIDA PANTHERS
Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (likely)
Florida – Roberto Luongo (confirmed)
Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Hunwick (out)
Florida – no significant injuries
The Pittsburgh Penguins start a Florida back-to-back tonight with a match-up against the Panthers before heading to Tampa Bay tomorrow and with Sullivan not announcing his starter it makes this game very difficult to project. There’s a huge drop-off between Matt Murray and Antti Niemi so until we know the starter we’ll have to play the waiting game. Unfortunately, the Pens aren’t expected to have a morning skate and we won’t find out until Sullivan meets with the media at about 5:30pm EST. I’m making my line with Niemi in net as it seems more logical to go with him tonight with the tougher Lightning on deck tomorrow. Sullivan has also talked about wanting to get Niemi in the net when there’s a fresher team in front of him as both his starts have come on the tail end of back-to-backs.
With Niemi, this line currently looks right and would be no play but if you see Murray is going to be starting don’t hesitate to jump on Pittsburgh. I’ll tweet out an update as soon as I see an announcement.
MINNESOTA WILD @ WINNIPEG JETS
Projected Goaltenders
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (probable)
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (confirmed)
Injury Report
Minnesota – Parise (out), Niederreiter (out), Coyle (out), Granlund (questionable)
Winnipeg – Perreault (out), Lowry (out)
The Minnesota Wild have been off since last Saturday and they used the time off to get some healthy bodies back on the ice. For the first time this week, Minnesota had a full complement of forwards on the ice for Thursday’s practice as Mikael Granlund and Marcus Foligno made their return. Foligno will play tonight but Granlund is expected to be a game-time decision.
Zach Parise suffered a setback in his recovery and will miss both weekend games and possibly much longer and that’s bad news for a Wild team already lacking depth.
The Winnipeg Jets have won all three of Connor Hellebuyck’s starts – and lost all three of Steve Mason’s. Hellebuyck will get the start tonight as the Jets search for some consistency. I won’t get into them today but the Jets underlying numbers are pretty bad right now and I’ve previously mentioned their lack of secondary scoring (the bottom six are still without a 5-on-5 goal).
Defensemen Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers missed practices this week but Maurice has said both will be good to go for tonight. One lineup change will see rookie Brendan Lemieux make his NHL debut. Brendan, the son of former NHL instigator Claude Lemieux, will play on the fourth line.
There’s no value at the current number but if Granlund will be the focal point here. If he’s cleared to play it will create enough value to play on the Wild, so stay tuned for a Twitter update.
MONTREAL CANADIENS @ ANAHEIM DUCKS
Projected Goaltenders
Montreal – Carey Price (confirmed)
Anaheim – John Gibson (probable)
Injury Report
Montreal – Schlemko (out)
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Vatanen (out), Getzlaf (doubtful), Eaves (doubtful), Kase (questionable), Lindholm (probable)
The Montreal Canadiens wrap up their annual nightmare road trip to California where the team hasn’t been able to win a game in a few years. Montreal is 1-5-1 with their only win coming in a season opening shootout win at Buffalo and it’s hard to believe but the Canadiens are the only other team besides Arizona yet to win a game in regulation this season.
Defensive breakdowns and ugly mistakes rose to the surface yet again in the third period at Los Angeles Wednesday night as the Kings struck four times to break open a 1-1 tie, cruising to an easy victory. Montreal’s offense continues to be stuck in mud as they are last in the NHL at just 1.43 goals per game.
Max Pacioretty is still without a goal through six games as the Canadiens top scoring threat continues to shot too many pucks from the outside and frustration has clearly set in. Julien even moved Galchenyuk back to the top line in a try anything effort to get his go-to guys going but the struggles continued. Jonathan Drouin has also been struggling as the number one center and I’m not the kind of guy to say I told you so, but, you know….
The Anaheim Ducks are also struggling with offense with just 2.00 goals per game, second only to Montreal as lowest in the league. The Ducks have had a laundry list of injuries early this season, however, so at least they can be forgiven somewhat. Ryan Getzlaf and Patrick Eaves both missed practice on Wednesday and are “very doubtful” for tonight.
Some good news for the Ducks is the return of defenseman Hampus Lindholm who was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and is expected to make his season debut tonight. Lindholm will likely be paired with Josh Manson again as the Ducks premier shutdown pair which should make life even more difficult for the Canadiens top line. Ondrej Kase also returned to practice on Wednesday and could play tonight.
John Gibson is expected to get the start but Ryan Miller may finally dress as the backup.
A Ducks win tonight would move the team back to .500 at 3-3-1 which would be a huge success considering the players they’ve been without. With the Ducks getting healthier look for them to quickly move back up near the top of the Pacific standings.
No line up yet for this one and I’m a little skeptical of my own number here. Being early in the season, last year’s data is still heavily weighted so my numbers think Montreal are still a good team. It’s possible they are (and they’re probably better than their current output) but it’s hard to put much faith in them right now. Combined with the significant Ducks injuries and Montreal should actually be a small road favorite and that just looks odd. We’ll see where this one opens but it’s unlikely I’d be interested in playing anything other than Anaheim here.
NHL Scoring Has Jumped Up Half a Goal
By: Ashton Grewal
Covers.com
NHL scoring is up over half a goal per game this season compared to last and almost a full goal more than two seasons ago. That's been a boon for hockey bettors siding with the Over. NHL games are averaging 6.11 goals per contest entering Thursday night’s slate on the ice. Last year, games average 5.45 markers and 5.33 in the 2015-16 campaign.
The Over is cashing at a 59.34 percent win rate after the first 94 games of the regular season and that’s despite a dramatic increase in games with 6-goal totals.
There were no games with totals higher than 5.5 for all of the 2015-16 season and only seven games with six-goal or higher over/under lines in the 2014-15 campaign. Oddsmakers have already given 15 games a total of six goals and one a 6.5-goal number this season.
Here’s a quick look at the top Over teams in the NHL this season:
Toronto Maple Leafs
Over/Under record: 6-1
The Leafs are first in the league in goals scored and are surrendering over three goals per game to opponents. The average total goals scored in a Toronto game is an even eight after the club’s first seven contests.
The Leafs own the league’s second-best power play with a 30 percent success rate and second-year center Auston Matthews leads the Buds in scoring with six goals and four assists.
Florida Panthers
Over/Under record: 5-0
The Panthers are averaging 3.4 goals per game and are giving up about four every time they step on the ice. Florida is the fifth-worst penalty killing team in the NHL and starting goalie Roberto Luongo is carrying just a .901 save percentage.
Minnesota Wild
Over/Under record: 4-0
The Wild have only played four games so far this season but in that short sample size, we’ve seen the red light lit 30 times – 15 for the Wild and 15 for their opponents. Minnesota is in the Top 10 in goals for/against.
No. 1 netminder Devan Dubnyk owns a bloated 3.70 goals against average and an embarrassing 8.94 save percentage in three starts this season.
Winnipeg Jets
Over/Under record: 5-1
The Jets thought Steve Mason was going to be their starting goalie but backup Connor Hellebuyck is clearly outplaying his teammate. Winnipeg has surrendered 18 goals in the three games Mason’s started and only five in the three starts Hellebuyck’s been given.