NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, October 27th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Colorado lost three of its last four games; they’re 2-4 on the road (under 4-1-1). Las Vegas won its last four games, is 7-1 in its first season in the NHL. Over is 4-2 in their home games. Golden Knights are 5-1 at home, with a couple of OT wins.
Road team won seven of last nine Winnipeg-Columbus games; Jets won their last four games in Ohio. Six of last eight series games went over the total. Winnipeg lost three of their last four games; over is 6-3 in their games this season- they’re 2-3 on the road. Blue Jackets won five of their last seven games, are 3-2 at home. Four of their last five games went over the total.
Road team won seven of last ten Ottawa-New Jersey games; Senators won three of last four series games- they’re 3-2 in their last five visits to the Garden State. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Senators are 3-0 on road, 2-5 at home; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. New Jersey won six of its last eight games; they’re 2-2 at home. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Road team won last five St Louis-Carolina games; Blues won last three visits to Raleigh. Over is 4-0-2 in last six series games. St Louis won three of last four games; they’re 4-3 on road. Over is 3-1 in their last four games. Hurricanes lost two of last three games, are 1-2 at home; four of their last five games went over the total.
Nashville won four of its last five games with Chicago (under 2-0-3); Blackhawks are 2-3 in their last five visits to Music City. Predators lost 3-2so/4-2 in their last two games; they’re 1-4 on the road- under is 5-1 in their last six games. Chicago lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-2 at home this month. Over is 6-3-1 in Blackhawks games this season.
Flames won five of their last seven games with Dallas; under is 4-1 in the last five. Dallas Stars won three of their last five visits to Calgary. Stars split their first 10 games; they lost four of their last five road games, losing in Edmonton last nite, 5-4. Last four Dallas games went over the total. Calgary lost three of its last four games; they’re 1-3 in the Saddledome this season. Flames’ last four games went over total.
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
MORNING LINE REPORT
We ended up passing on yesterday’s two games but watching the line movement sure was interesting. Columbus dropped late morning to -211 which wasn’t enough for us to get involved but skyrocketed throughout the day and evening to nearly -300. It was a tremendous spot for the Jackets but that was just a silly line. I felt bad for all the numbers guys who were forced into taking a late position on Buffalo at the inflated price as they knew it was most likely a losing bet. In a case like last night where the line soared late before the game, I consider those to be false moves and not worth firing back on. The market is shaped by mid-afternoon and any late moves like that for no apparent reason (no late injuries or goaltending change) are not indicative of the true market number.
We’re back in action tonight with another 11-game slate and there’s a bit of value to be found. Let’s get into things.
SAN JOSE SHARKS @ BOSTON BRUINS
Projected Goaltenders
San Jose – Martin Jones (probable)
Boston – Tuukka Rask (likely)
Injury Report
San Jose – Martin (out)
Boston – Krejci (out), Spooner (out), McQuaid (out), Miller (probable)
The San Jose Sharks continue their East Coast road trip after evening their record at 4-4-0 with Monday’s 4-1 win over the Rangers. The Sharks went 6-for-6 on the penalty kill and Martin Jones was fantastic. Jones has really turned it on after a slow start and has now only allowed five goals over his last four starts.
Logan Couture continued his strong start to the season with another goal and assist, giving him 8 goals and ten points through the first eight games. Couture is one of the most underrated centers in the league and this could be a huge breakout year for him.
The Boston Bruins let two points slip through their hands after blowing a three goal lead in Saturday’s 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo. Injuries continue to be the Bruins biggest issue as David Krejci was the latest to hit the list after missing last game with back spasms. Krejci will both games this weekend and is currently week-to-week. Boston played their first five games without their number one center before Bergeron finally returned and will now have to overcome the loss of their number two center. Riley Nash and Tim Schaller are expected to rotate to fill the hole and Cassidy may even try David Backes at times.
Tuukka Rask was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice after missing two games due to a concussion. He still needs to receive clearance to play but there’s a strong chance he’ll be ready to go for tonight. Khudobin gave up eight goals in the last two games so having Rask back will be a big boost. Defenseman Kevan Miller also practiced on Wednesday without any limitations and is officially a game-time decision but Cassidy said he expects him to play.
BetOnline is the only sportsbook I see who has a line on this game right now and I’m surprised they have it up with Rask’s status in question. It currently sits at -120 which is a little short if Rask plays. Due to this line not being widely available I won’t lock this is as a play and we’ll wait until it opens across the board to decide what to do here.
ARIZONA COYOTES @ NEW YORK RANGERS
Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Antti Raanta/Louis Domingue/Adin Hill (unknown)
NY Rangers – Ondrej Pavelec (confirmed)
Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Perlini (probable)
NY Rangers – no significant injuries
The Arizona Coyotes will try once again for their first win of the season against the team who currently holds the longest winless streak to ever begin a season after falling 5-3 to the Islanders on Tuesday. It will be Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta’s first return to New York after being traded to Arizona during the offseason and while Stepan will get a crack at his old mates there’s a chance Raanta may as well. Raanta made a surprise return to practice yesterday and although it’s unlikely he will be ready for game action tonight, it’s encouraging to see his return is near. Louis Domingue has been atrocious with Adin Hill not much better and the poor play in net has been the major reason the team is still searching for a win. The Coyotes underlying metrics are actually much better than their 0-8-1 record suggest so there’s hope this team can still turn things around. Getting a healthy Raanta back would be a big first step.
Brendan Perlini was taken off IR yesterday and could be in the lineup tonight. Perlini scored 14 goals last year in 57 games and will help their depth scoring.
The New York Rangers fell to 2-6-2 after Monday’s 4-1 loss to San Jose. It was another disappointing effort from many of New York’s top players and they simply need more from them. This will be Rick Nash’s 1000th career game and it would be nice if he showed up. Nash has just a single goal and no assists through the first ten games and is just one of several key players off to ice cold starts.
Pavelec will start tonight as the Rangers wrap up a six game homestand.
This line isn’t available yet due to the possibility of Raanta making a return. He is a significant upgrade over Domingue or Hill so we’ll have to wait on his status before doing anything here.
WINNIPEG JETS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Projected Goaltenders
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (confirmed)
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (probable)
Injury Report
Winnipeg – Perreault (out), Lowry (out)
Pittsburgh – Schultz (doubtful), Hunwick (doubtful)
The Winnipeg Jets have won four of five after a 0-2 start and now hit the road for a tough back-to-back in Pittsburgh and Columbus after having the last five days off.
The Jets still don’t have an even-strength goal from their bottom six and as a result Nic Petan was the latest scapegoat this week being sent down to the AHL. Matt Hendricks was activated off the IR and will make his season debut tonight on a fourth line with Brendan Lemieux and Joel Armia.
Defenseman Dmitri Kulikov is now healthy after missing two games and will return tonight. Jacob Trouba is also expected to play after missing Wednesday’s practice. Hellebuyck has started all four of the Jets victories and he’ll get the start tonight with Mason expected to go tomorrow.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have won three in a row on home ice after Tuesday’s hard fought 2-1 win over Edmonton. The win came at a price though as defenseman Justin Schultz suffered a concussion after taking an elbow to the head. He joins Matt Hunwick who has also been out with a concussion. Neither are expected to play tonight but Sullivan called them “doubtful” after yesterday’s practice so I won’t completely confirm them as out.
This line seems criminally low at just -170 and even if my numbers are lower on Winnipeg than most, I just can’t get to that low of a number so the Penguins will be locked in as our first play tonight.
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Projected Goaltenders
Carolina – Scott Darling (probable)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (probable)
Injury Report
Carolina – Stempniak (out)
Toronto – van Riemsdyk (probable)
The Carolina Hurricanes have dropped two straight in tough games against Dallas and Tampa Bay and now travel to Toronto for another stiff test.
The Canes are expected to go with the same lineup as Tuesday’s 5-1 loss to Tampa Bay which means Scott Darling will get the start. Carolina will travel home to play St. Louis tomorrow night where Cam Ward will likely start.
The Toronto Maple Leafs put a strong performance together for Monday’s 3-2 win over Los Angeles despite Auston Matthews being held without a point for just the second time this season.
James van Riemsdyk missed Wednesday’s practice but Babcock said they expect him to play tonight.
This line is about where I have it so we’ll move on from here and look for better spots.
DETROIT RED WINGS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (likely)
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy (probable)
Injury Report
Detroit – Athanasiou (questionable), DeKeyser (questionable)
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries
The Detroit Red Wings have now lost five straight games after being shutout 1-0 in Buffalo on Tuesday and are quickly sliding down the standings after their hot start. Help may be on the way though as Andreas Athanasiou’s visa came through quicker than expected and after passing his physical he practiced with the team on Wednesday, skating on a line with Frans Nielsen while also on the second powerplay unit. Blashill said there’s a good chance he suits up tonight but wouldn’t confirm it yet.
Defenseman Danny DeKeyser is also close to a return after missing the last seven games. He’s been practicing regularly with the team and Blashill said he should return either tonight or Saturday in Florida.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are a perfect 5-0-0 at home and 8-1-1 overall as everything is clicking early. Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos continue terrorizing opposing defenses and Vasilevskiy has won a career high seven straight starts.
I’m not going to spend much time on this game as I have no interest in stepping in front of the Bolts right now. This line seems heavily inflated to me and there’s value on Detroit if you want to play them but I’m going to pass.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ OTTAWA SENATORS
Projected Goaltenders
Philadelphia – Michal Neuvirth (confirmed)
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)
Injury Report
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out), Simmonds (questionable)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Turris (out), Ryan (out), Z. Smith (out)
The Philadelphia Flyers dropped a 6-2 decision to Anaheim on Tuesday as they wrapped up an otherwise successful homestand and now hit the road for the first time in 16 days.
The Flyers received a scare when Nolan Patrick had to leave the game after having his head slammed into the glass during the second period and did not return. He passed concussion tests and fully practiced Wednesday and has been ruled good to go for tonight.
Hakstol is changing up his defensive pairs tonight with a move I really like. The new top pair will be Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere which could become one of the most underrated pairs in the league if they stick together. Andy MacDonald is expected to be out at least a month so hopefully we’ll get to see this pair develop some chemistry. Rookies Travis Sanheim and Robert Hagg have performed well thus far and Hakstol is placing confidence in them by pairing them together as the second pair. Brandon Manning and Radko Gudas will form the third pair.
Wayne Simmonds is questionable for tonight after missing Wednesday’s practice. He was being evaluated for a lower-body injury but no further update has been provided.
Michal Neuvirth will get the start tonight and he’s been a hard-luck loser in two of his three starts. Don’t let the 1-2-0 record fool you though as Neuvirth has only allowed four goals in those three games and currently leads the entire NHL with a 1.36 goals-against average and a .957 save percentage.
The Ottawa Senators wrap up a five game homestand tonight and the Canadian Tire Center has been anything but friendly as the team has lost five of six games on home ice. The Senators were supposed to be in good shape after surviving Erik Karlsson’s absence but now the forwards group has taken a hit with multiple key injuries in their top-six. After losing Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith, Kyle Turris is the latest to go down after missing Wednesday’s practice with a bad case of the flu and is not expected to play tonight. Boucher says the flu bug is running rampant throughout the locker room.
Ottawa’s new makeshift top-six looks unfamiliar with a top line of Burrows-Brassard-Stone and Hoffman-Pageau-Pyatt on the second line but the bottom-six looks downright ugly with Dzingel-Thompson-DiDomenico and McCormick-Chlapik-Rodewald. If some of those names look strange to you don’t worry, I had to look a couple of them up myself.
This line has taken a lot of Flyers money overnight falling from the -130 open down to the current -113 and based on those Senators line combos it’s pretty clear to see why. This number has moved too much in my opinion and if it goes any further we’ll have value on Ottawa tonight which is pretty scary. They have a likely tougher game in New Jersey tomorrow night where the depth concerns should crop up so look for them to step up tonight and give everything they have. It’s no play right now but it may be added later this morning.
LOS ANGELES KINGS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS
Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (probable)
Montreal – Carey Price (probable)
Injury Report
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out), Clifford (out)
Montreal – Schlemko (out), Hemsky (out)
Los Angeles and Montreal will meet for the second time this season after the Kings drubbed the Habs 5-1 back in LA. That game was tied 1-1 heading into the third and Montreal generally played much better than the final score indicated.
The Kings bounced back from their first loss in regulation in Toronto with a 3-2 win in Ottawa Tuesday night as they continue a difficult six game road trip. Tonight will be Los Angeles’ fourth game in six nights.
Montreal snapped a seven game winless streak with an offensive breakout in Tuesday’s 5-1 win versus Florida which cashed a nice ticket for us. I mentioned that day about how Montreal’s advanced metrics showed they weren’t as bad as their record has shown so it was nice to finally see some good bounces go their way. Everything clicked well with Carey Price looking sharp, the powerplay striking twice and they dominated play while 5-on-5.
We’re going with Montreal again tonight as this line has opened short which isn’t a surprise. We should see some value on Montreal over the next few games while the Kings will continue to be overvalued for the short-term. This is a good spot for Montreal so I would bend a little bit on the line here. Anything up to my listed range (-122) I would play.
ANAHEIM DUCKS @ FLORIDA PANTHERS
Projected Goaltenders
Anaheim – John Gibson (probable)
Florida – James Reimer (confirmed)
Injury Report
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Vatanen (out), Fowler (out)
Florida – no significant injuries
The Anaheim Ducks have won back-to-back games with a 6-2 score as they continue to work their way back to a healthy lineup. The importance of having Ryan Getzlaf and Hampus Lindholm back in the mix cannot be undersold and both were major contributors last game.
The Florida Panthers are still awaiting word on the severity of Roberto Luongo’s hand injury but made another strange roster move with the claiming of backup goaltender Antti Niemi who Pittsburgh had placed on waivers. Florida was one of the most promising young franchises not too long ago but ownership has made several head-scratching moves over the past year and picking up Niemi certainly qualifies near the top of that list.
After Tuesday’s 5-1 loss at Montreal the team didn’t get back to South Florida and to bed until about 5 a.m. after the long travel so they took Wednesday off.
This line opened just below where I have it but has seen a slight move to Anaheim early this morning. The Ducks are getting healthier but they still have some significant injuries and Florida should be favored a little more than the current number. We’ll lock the Panthers in as another value play.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ MINNESOTA WILD
Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Thomas Greiss (confirmed)
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (probable)
Injury Report
NY Islanders – Ho-Sang (out)
Minnesota – Niederreiter (out), Parise (out), Coyle (out)
The New York Islanders are on a bit of a roll now after Tuesday’s 5-3 victory over Arizona giving them a three game win streak.
The interesting news for the Isles here is they sent Josh Ho-Sang down to Bridgeport in the AHL which I can’t imagine is going over well with the fan base. It’s also a bit odd since Weight just said on Tuesday that Ho-Sang could return to the lineup this game. Listening to Weight talk about him it doesn’t seem like Ho-Sang is one of his favorite players which is too bad because he’s one of the most exciting players the Islanders have to showcase.
The Minnesota Wild kicked off a six game homestand with a disappointing 1-0 loss to Vancouver on Tuesday night. The Wild were the slightly better team overall but couldn’t solve Anders Nilsson. Despite the Wild’s injuries to their top-six forwards it was the first game this season they’ve been held under two goals.
This line opened about ten cents too short but has moved up to where it should be overnight so we’ll likely sit this one out.
DALLAS STARS @ EDMONTON OILERS
Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (probable)
Injury Report
Dallas – Johns (out)
Edmonton – Sekera (out)
The Dallas Stars stumbled on their first game of their road trip with a 5-3 loss at Colorado on Tuesday and now they’ll spend the next week in Western Canada.
Ben Bishop was pulled after allowing three goals on 17 shots and he let it be known after the game he wasn’t very happy with Hitchcock and his decision to remove him. The Stars were only down 3-2 at the time and Bishop felt the team could come back. Hitchcock defended his decision by saying the team looked “dozy” and he was looking to wake them up. Both sides said yesterday it wouldn’t be an issue moving forward.
The Edmonton Oilers schedule isn’t about to get any easier now that they’ve returned home to begin a five game homestand. After road tilts in Chicago, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh the Oilers will welcome Dallas, Washington and Pittsburgh for the next three.
Edmonton has looked better the last couple of games (both 2-1 losses) but there’s still an obvious lack of speed throughout the lineup which was such a key to last year’s success.
This line is currently where I think it should be so we’ll likely sit this one out and move on.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Projected Goaltenders
Washington – Braden Holtby (probable)
Vancouver – Anders Nilsson/Jacob Markstrom (unknown)
Injury Report
Washington – Niskanen (out), Burakovsky (out)
Vancouver – Edler (out), Stecher (out), Eriksson (out)
The Washington Capitals dropped their third in four games after Tuesday’s 4-1 loss to Florida and just don’t look like the same team as last year’s President Trophy winners which has worked out well for us. We’re faded the Capitals four times so far this season and are 3-1 in those games (we did play on Washington once which they won so we’re 4-1 in Caps games which has made them a very good team to us).
The Capitals depth took another hit with the loss of Andre Burakovsky who will miss six to eight weeks after having thumb surgery this week.
Alex Ovechkin has considerably cooled off after his torrid start and hasn’t scored an even-strength goal in five games now. He’ll have a new linemate tonight as Alex Chiasson has been moved to the top line. I can’t imagine that helping to get Ovechkin back in the goal column but the Caps are limited in options right now and need to try and create some balanced lines.
The Vancouver Canucks open a five game homestand tonight after a very successful road trip which saw them win four of five, including an Anders Nilsson 1-0 shutout Tuesday in Minnesota to wrap up the trip.
Travis Green has the Canucks playing a smart brand of hockey and I’ve been impressed with how he’s handled his line combos and ice-time. I also mentioned how I thought this team would be better with Nilsson in net instead of Markstrom. Nilsson has two shutouts in his three starts which is two more shutouts than Markstrom has in 115 career starts. Hopefully Green does the right thing and give Nilsson his first home start of the season tonight.
My numbers gave a bit of a strange output for this game and the range is much wider than usual. The current line is within this number so we’ll just sit this one out tonight.