NHL Betting News and Notes Monday, December 18th, 2017

Monday’s NHL
Ducks won six of last seven games with New Jersey; they won three of last four visits to the Garden State. Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Anaheim is 3-5 in its last eight games; they lost four of last five road games. Seven of their last nine games stayed under. Devils are 3-4 in their last seven games; they split their last four home games. Four of their last five games went over total.

Kings won four of their last five games with Philly; under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. LA won four of last five games in this building. Kings lost their last three games (all on road), allowing 13 goals, after an 8-game win streak; five of their last six games went over total. Flyers won their last six games, allowing total of nine goals; under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Philly won its last three home games.

Columbus/Boston split their last ten games; Blue Jackets split their last four visits to Beantown. Last five series games went over total. Columbus is 3-4 in its last seven games; they lost three of last four road games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Bruins are 5-3 in their last eight games overall; they split last six home games. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Penguins are 5-3 in their last eight games with Colorado; road team won last four series games. Pittsburgh won four of last six visits to Denver. Six of last nine series games stayed under total. Penguins lost three of last four games; they’re 7-11 on road. Four of their last six games went over total. Colorado lost six of its last nine games, four of last five at home. Six of their last eight games went over the total.

Oilers won seven of their last nine games with San Jose; Sharks lost three of last four games in Edmonton. Under is 3-2 in last five series games. San Jose is 3-4 in its last seven games; they lost three of last four road games. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games. Edmonton split its last eight games; they lost their last three home games. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

armadillosports.com

MORNING LINE REPORT – Monday, December 18th

So this is what it feels like to wake up after a winning night. Winning days have been few and far between throughout the month of December here but everything fell into place yesterday as all four games went as expected and we stopped the bleeding with a much needed 3-0 night as we enter the final week before the three-day Christmas break.

And all it took was the sacrifice of my new favorite player, Brock Boeser? It was a scary moment in Vancouver when Boeser blocked what appeared to be an innocent wrist shot that hit the wrong part of his foot and left him crumpled to the ice. Boeser was unable to put any weight on his foot and literally tried to crawl off the ice before eventually being helped. The leading rookie scorer was having a fantastic start to his season and was the front-runner for the Calder Trophy but now he’s expected to join the long list of key Canucks players on the IR. There was no immediate timetable for how long the league will be denied Boeser’s sweet shot but he was on crutches and in a walking boot post-game so we’ll hold our breath today hoping for a somewhat positive diagnosis.

Let’s get right into today’s five games as I have an appointment early this morning and won’t be available again until mid-afternoon. Take note of the Ducks/Devils below as that could be a playable game when the line opens and I recommended what to look for.

As always, be sure to check in with me on Twitter (@kreatture) for updates after morning skates, additional plays, or just to chat.

All odds courtesy BetOnline as of 8:15am Eastern Time

*NOTE* I assign a value to every player in the NHL which is part of the line I create. Only those players with a value greater than zero are listed below in the injury report for each team. In other words, if a player is worth nothing to the line movement, he won’t be listed.

ANAHEIM DUCKS @ NEW JERSEY DEVILS

Projected Goaltenders
Anaheim – John Gibson/Ryan Miller (unknown)
New Jersey – Cory Schneider (likely)

Injury Report
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Perry (out), Ritchie (out)
New Jersey – Johansson (doubtful), Palmieri (in), Hall (in)

The Anaheim Ducks overtime woes continued on Saturday night as they blew a 2-0 third period lead and gave up a goal to Alex Ovechkin 1:58 into the extra session for a 3-2 loss. It was the Ducks league-leading eighth defeat in extra time (0-4 overtime, 2-4 shootout). Those lost points can make all the difference between a playoff spot and missing out but Anaheim can take some positives from the fact they have secured at least a point in seven straight games now (3-0-4).

Anaheim continues their six game East Coast trip this week with the front-end of a back-to-back tonight. The Ducks will travel to New York tomorrow to play the Rangers and John Gibson and Ryan Miller are expected to split the starts, although Carlyle hasn’t announced which order.

It will be an emotional return home for Adam Henrique who was involved in the recent trade that sent Sami Vatanen to New Jersey. Henrique has been a solid contributor for the Ducks so far with six points in eight games.

Hampus Lindholm returned to the lineup on Saturday after missing five games to give Anaheim their full contingent again on defense.

The New Jersey Devils bounced back with a 5-2 win over the Dallas Stars on Friday night to kick off a season-high six game homestand. The impressive victory came with the team missing a trio of stars, including two-thirds of their top line but that will change tonight.

Leading scorer Taylor Hall has been skating since Friday and will return to the lineup after missing two games while Kyle Palmieri was activated off the IR after missing 12 games with a broken foot. Both fully practiced yesterday and have been confirmed to play tonight.

It puts the Devils almost back to full health for the first time this season. Only Marcus Johansson remains on the injured list and even he’s very close to a return. Johansson also practiced on Sunday but skated as an extra and was not part of line rushes. There’s a small possibility he could return tonight although the Devils would need to make a roster move to open a spot and there’s been no movement on the AHL transactions page to this point. Hynes said they’ll make a final decision this morning but if he didn’t play tonight he would likely return for Thursday’s game.

We’ll have to wait for a line on this game to open but I’m expecting the Devils to open a small home favorite probably a little higher than the number I have which means we might have value on Anaheim. I won’t be available when this line opens so won’t be able to immediately add as a play if it qualifies. Our target number is Anaheim +112 so if you can get that number go ahead and play the Ducks.

LOS ANGELES KINGS @ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (expected)
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott/Michal Neuvirth (unknown)

Injury Report
Los Angeles – Carter (out)
Philadelphia – Manning (out)

The Los Angeles Kings will wrap up their four game East Coast road trip tonight and they’re probably looking forward to getting back to LA after three straight losses, including Saturday’s 4-3 overtime loss to the Islanders. The Kings held a 2-1 lead after 40 minutes but New York grew stronger as the game wore on and controlled play over the final two periods.

John Stevens returns to his old stomping grounds where he held his first NHL coaching job. Stevens coached Philadelphia for parts of four seasons before being fired eight years ago. Normally, a former coach returning to his old team after being fired is a pretty good angle but in this case it was so long ago I don’t think there’s anything to read into this one.

The Philadelphia Flyers are looking to make NHL history again. Last year, the Flyers became the first team in NHL history to record a 10-game or longer winning streak during the regular season and fail to make the playoffs. Tonight, the Flyers are looking to tie another NHL record set by the 1966-67 Toronto Maple Leafs by winning seven consecutive games following a 10-game or more winless streak.

The Flyers earned their sixth straight victory with Saturday’s 2-1 win over Dallas on the strength of two powerplay goals from Shayne Gostisbehere, including the winner 3:50 into overtime.

Chances are Brian Elliott will get the start in goal again tonight but Michal Neuvirth is eligible to come off the IR today. Neuvirth practiced on Sunday for the fourth straight day with the team and says he feels good so he should at least come back in the backup role.

This line opened with the wrong team favored, in my opinion, and unfortunately the market began to correct this overnight. The Flyers have fallen from -120 to the current number of -108 which kills a lot of our value but there’s still just enough for us to jump on the Kings. You can still grab this at plus money at most shops but because I use BetOnline numbers for our purposes here it will be recorded as a -102 play. I’d be comfortable playing LA up to -109.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS @ BOSTON BRUINS

Projected Goaltenders
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky (likely)
Boston – Tuukka Rask/Anton Khudobin (unknown)

Injury Report
Columbus – Dubinsky (out), Murray (doubtful)
Boston – McQuaid (questionable)

The Columbus Blue Jackets are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference but they are struggling to find consistency at the moment. The Jackets have yet to win back-to-back games this month and are just 4-4-0 overall after a 2-1 loss at Carolina on Saturday.

Tortorella has been unhappy with the defense so made a change two games ago, splitting up his second pair of Jack Johnson and David Savard. Johnson is now paired with Markus Nutivaara while Savard dropped to the third pair beside Scott Harrington. Nutivaara has been playing very well so I like that he’s up on the second pair now.

Sunday’s practice rolled with the same lines as Saturday’s game but there may be a change to the bottom-six tonight. Rookie defenseman Gabriel Carlsson was sent back down to Cleveland along with forward Jordan Schroeder for defenseman Cameron Gaunce and forward Sonny Milano. Gaunce is expected to serve as the extra d-man but Milano could enter the lineup. He had ten points in 25 games with the Jackets earlier this year.

The Boston Bruins were the better team on Saturday but lost a 3-2 overtime decision to the Rangers. It was a tough loss for the Bruins who now enter a very tough week with four games over the next six days that will conclude a jam-packed seven games in 11 day stretch.

The Bruins are a healthy team again but a big part of their early success came from the solid play of rookies Anders Bjork and Jake DeBrusk. Both players have seen significant drop-offs in their play to the point where Bjork has gone from a top line player to a healthy scratch last game. DeBrusk played less than eight minutes in Saturday’s game and could lose his spot on the second line beside David Krejci as soon as tonight. Cassidy is considering moving Danton Heinen up to the second line wing. The return of Bjork tonight is also something Cassidy pointed to as likely to happen so we’ll have to wait for the morning skate to see how the lines are deployed.

Defenseman Adam McQuaid could make his return tonight after a two month layoff, although that still seems hopeful. McQuaid returned to practice and still needs to be cleared to play. Cassidy wasn’t sure if that would happen today or not.

Boston travels to Buffalo for tomorrow’s game so Tuukka Rask and Anton Khudobin will split these two games but Cassidy hadn’t decided on the order yet, so there’s a few things to look for this morning with the Bruins.

This line opened about where I thought it would but my numbers say it should be way different. I’m expecting Rask in net for Boston so made my line with him in the lineup and whether McQuaid plays or not it wouldn’t change the number enough to matter. Columbus hasn’t been kind to us here lately but that’s been due to a run of poor home games. We’re 3-0 while backing the Jackets on the road this season so hopefully that streak continues. It might be better to wait and play this game later today as I know Boston is ranked pretty high in a lot of people’s systems (and mine too) so there’s a good chance they take some action. Because I won’t be around until later this afternoon I don’t have much choice so am locking it in as a play now. [UPDATE: I misread this one in my rush this morning and was wrong in recommending you wait on playing this. I would still recommend a play on Columbus down to -104]

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE

Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (expected)
Colorado – Semyon Varlamov (expected)

Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Schultz (out)
Colorado – Johnson (suspended), Kerfoot (probable)

The Pittsburgh Penguins received a goal in the final 20 seconds Saturday night and added a last second empty-netter from Sidney Crosby for a 4-2 win at Arizona. Despite the game being tied into the dying seconds there was little doubt the Penguins were the better team overall on the night. The Pens wrap up a three game road trip tonight against the team who defeated them 2-1 back in Pittsburgh just one week ago.

Colorado gave up four goals in a five minute span of the second period to Tampa Bay on Saturday before a wild third period broke up. Colorado trailed 4-1 after 40 minutes and 5-1 early in the third before rallying to cut the deficit to 5-4. They would eventually lose 6-5.

The big news for Colorado is the two-game suspension to defenseman Erik Johnson. This is a huge blow for the Avs which might not be felt as much in the line movement but he’s an integral part of that defensive core. A lot of people will point to a number of different things for the historic decline of the Avs last season but it started with the loss of Johnson for an extended period of time.

As per the norm here lately, the Pens are drastically underrated in the market compared to my numbers so we’re jumping on board again.

SAN JOSE SHARKS @ EDMONTON OILERS

Projected Goaltenders
San Jose – Martin Jones (likely)
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (expected)

Injury Report
San Jose – Couture (out), Boedker (probable)
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Larsson (likely)

The San Jose Sharks wrap up their three game Western Canada road trip tonight after dropping a 4-3 overtime game in Vancouver on Friday. The Sharks lost much more than the game though as leading goal and point scorer Logan Couture took a hard shoulder hit to his surgically-repaired jaw area and had to leave the game in what has since been ruled a concussion. Couture is not only San Jose’s leading scorer but he may also been they’re most valuable player. Most people might think Joe Pavelski or Brent Burns would get that designation but the Sharks’ players will be first to tell you it’s Couture who makes everything work seamlessly. His loss is a huge blow.

With Couture out, Tomas Hertl took over the second line center position between Kevin Labanc and Mikkel Boedker, who is expected to return tonight after missing the past seven games.

The Edmonton Oilers put together another solid game on Saturday with a deserved 3-2 win at Minnesota. Cam Talbot made 29 saves in his return to the crease after missing seven games.

Todd McLellan updated us yesterday on the health statuses of defensemen Andrej Sekera and Adam Larsson. McLellan said Sekera is getting close and should return sometime between now and the New Year but won’t play tonight. When asked if Larsson would return before the Christmas break, McLellan simply said “Larsson, yes.” but the belief is we’re going to see him suit up tonight.

This is the first meeting between these teams since the Oilers eliminated San Jose from the playoffs last spring. You might hear someone mention an angle about “playoff revenge” as a reason to play San Jose but believe me when I tell you, backing road teams looking for revenge in the first meeting is a huge losing proposition. So much, that I’m considering playing the Oilers tonight even without a numbers edge. I might provide more thoughts on this later this afternoon on Twitter when I return home.

The line opened where I expected so we’re going to sit this one out (for now) but this should be Oilers or nothing if you’re thinking of getting involved.

-END OF DECEMBER 18 PICKS–

MORNING LINE REPORT – Sunday, December 17th

We had a successful Saturday with the article picks going 3-2, with three deserved wins by Ottawa, Washington and Pittsburgh. Minnesota and Colorado weren’t so fortunate and although they both put up good fights, they weren’t the better team overall so we can’t complain. Unfortunately, three Twitter additions when the morning lines opened went 0-3 and left us with another hard luck day. Los Angeles held a third period lead for us but the Islanders were the better team overall and deserved the overtime victory. The Bruins and Jets though, those were two tough losses to swallow as Boston and Winnipeg were the much better team yesterday and should have come out on top.

We went 5-3 overall in the Expected Goals category but the record finished 3-5 in what has become an incredibly frustrating December. I’ll be honest, the losing was starting to get to me the past couple of days but I sat down last night and went over the numbers for our wins and losses this month. We’re still consistently beating the closing line every day and we’re winning the Expected Goals battle more than our results are showing.

So, although this month has royally sucked, there aren’t any serious red flags pointing to something being drastically wrong. It’s just a (really) tough stretch and we should expect the tide to eventually turn back in our favor. We’re still +15.39 units for the season and while that number was almost double when we began this month, the big picture goal is to have a winning season and so far we’re accomplishing that goal.

Moving onto another lazy Sunday, we have a nice little four game card and a couple of strong edges to play so let’s go get it.

As always, be sure to check in with me on Twitter (@kreatture) for updates after morning skates, additional plays, or just to chat.

All odds courtesy BetOnline as of 11:35am Eastern Time

*NOTE* I assign a value to every player in the NHL which is part of the line I create. Only those players with a value greater than zero are listed below in the injury report for each team. In other words, if a player is worth nothing to the line movement, he won’t be listed.

ST. LOUIS BLUES @ WINNIPEG JETS

Projected Goaltenders
St. Louis – Jake Allen (confirmed)
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (confirmed)

Injury Report
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Schwartz (out), Bouwmeester (out), Pietrangelo (likely)
Winnipeg – Enstrom (out), Byfuglien (out)

The Blues and Jets will play the second half of a home-and-home tonight after St. Louis took the opener 2-0 last night thanks to an incredible 48-save performance from backup Carter Hutton who was fresh off the IR. It was a frustrating loss for the Jets who were the clearly dominant team all game. They outshot the Blues 48-30 and held a 77-54 shot attempt advantage. They won the Expected Goals battle by a score of 4.09 to 2.68 and held over a 57% 5-on-5 possession edge while spending a large chuck of the game controlling the puck in the offensive zone. Two timely powerplay goals by the Blues were the only scoring in the game.

Carter Hutton is a strong backup and I’d even venture to say he’s a better goalie than Steve Mason. The starters will take the spotlight today and that advantage swings back to the Jets with Connor Hellebuyck over Jake Allen. Hellebuyck has made significant changes to his game this year and is near the top of the league in several goaltending categories, including eighth in 5-on-5 save percentage with a .932 mark.

One expected change to the lineups today should see the return of defenceman Alex Pietrangelo for the Blues as he’s scheduled to come off the IR. Yeo said there was a possibility he could play and there hasn’t been any indication to suggest he won’t be ready.

This line opened this morning just a couple pennies below where I expected and has seen a small five-cent jump on the Jets. I absolutely think the Jets are the play here but we don’t currently hold any edge with this number so here’s what we’re going to do with this one today. I expect Pietrangelo to be activated and announced as playing at which time I would suspect we’ll see a small move on St. Louis at which time we’ll jump on the Jets. Hopefully we’ll get a better number later today but if not, I will still probably play Winnipeg tonight.

MINNESOTA WILD @ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

Projected Goaltenders
Minnesota – Alex Stalock (expected)
Chicago – Corey Crawford (expected)

Injury Report
Minnesota – Parise (out), Spurgeon (probable)
Chicago – Hossa (out), Franson (out)

The Minnesota Wild played a pretty solid game yesterday in their 3-2 loss to Edmonton but the Oilers were just a little bit better. Now the Wild hit the road for a four game trip beginning with this tough back-to-back spot. This is also a three in four and four in six situation for Minnesota going into a rested Chicago who have been off since Thursday and waiting for their arrival.

Alex Stalock was sensational again yesterday and held the Wild in the game and he could be asked to do so again today. Devan Dubnyk is still out and 24-year old backup Steve Michalek has never played an NHL game. Boudreau hasn’t officially confirmed a starter but you should expect Stalock to get the call. Saturday’s game was also an afternoon start so there’s a few extra hours of recovery for Stalock than the typical back-to-back evening games.

The Wild should see the return of Jared Spurgeon to the blueline. Ryan Murphy was reassigned to Iowa after yesterday’s game so that means Spurgeon is expected to return to the lineup today. Boudreau said it was possible he would return and the move with Murphy all but confirms it.

Zach Parise has been cleared for practice but still has a ways to go before getting into game action.

The Chicago Blackhawks followed up a five game losing streak (0-3-2) with a current season-long four game win streak (2-0-2) after Thursday’s 5-1 victory in Winnipeg. The recent win streak has coincided with the return of starter Corey Crawford who picked up right where he left off and continues to be in the conversation for a Vezina nomination.

The Hawks return home for this single home game before hitting the road for a season-long six game road trip. In fact, this will be the final home game in 2017 for Chicago. Normally, the standalone home game before a long trip would be a difficult schedule spot but the Hawks have been home for a few days waiting for this one so they’ve had plenty of time to get their family affairs and such all set before leaving.

Defensemen Cody Franson and Jan Rutta will be out of the lineup today as they continue to deal with upper-body injuries so we’ll see Jordan Oesterle and Michal Kempny in the lineup. Franson is a tough loss as he currently leads all Chicago players in CorsiFor% (59.1%) and a Relative On-Ice CF% of +7.5%. Oesterle has been a capable replacement though and has been seeing time on the top-pairing beside Duncan Keith. He’s only played in seven games but has been a positive possession player (54.8%).

This line opened at a hefty price this morning and is a bit inflated in my view but I don’t want anything to do with the Wild today. It’s possible oddsmakers created this line with the expectation that Michalek would start for Minnesota so when Stalock is announced (and Spurgeon) we might see this number drop a bit. I’m not interested in jumping on Chicago at this number but we’ll keep an eye on it and see where it sits later this afternoon. It’s probably safe to add Chicago to your football parlays today (although I like Vegas better if you’re looking for just one NHL play).

CALGARY FLAMES @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Projected Goaltenders
Calgary – David Rittich (confirmed)
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom (likely)

Injury Report
Calgary – Versteeg (out), Jagr (questionable)
Vancouver – Horvat (out), Baertschi (out), Sutter (out), Gudbranson (out), Tanev (out)

The Calgary Flames have dropped seven of their last ten games (3-5-2) after last night’s 2-0 loss to visiting Nashville. It was a tough loss for the Flames who out-shot and out-chanced the Predators while also winning the Expected Goals battle 4.00-3.28. The Flames now travel to Vancouver for a standalone road game that is also a three in four and four in six situation. It’s a tough spot but despite the tough record this month, the Flames are arguably playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season and they’re just not getting that puck luck.

Jaromir Jagr returned last night and hopefully will be good to go again tonight. I listed his as questionable as there’s a chance he might not be able to go back-to-back nights with his nagging lower-body injury. Jagr played just 12:48 and while starting on the fourth line, he saw time on all four lines at some point.

Backup David Rittich will get the start today to give Mike Smith a breather. Rittich has been solid in his three games (two starts) with a .913 save percentage and 2.57 goals-against average.

The Vancouver Canucks came out Friday night like the arena was on fire and were flying up and down the ice as they took it to the Sharks with a 4-3 overtime win. It was a big emotional response for the Canucks who were drubbed 7-1 by Nashville a couple nights prior.

With the absence of Bo Horvat, among others, the Sedin twins have seen an increase in ice-time and the burden of more offensive responsibility. Henrik and Daniel are no strangers to adversity and have answered the bell as they each recorded three assists in Friday’s game.

The current injuries for the Canucks are a lot to overcome though and as great as the emotional response was on Friday, I would expect there’s a strong possibility for another quick letdown tonight. The team is just missing too much of their top-end talent and while they might surprise me, a Flames team who have been playing much better than their recent results might indicate should be able to get a much needed win here.

This line opened short this morning at just -110 and hasn’t moved a lick so we’ll jump in with our expected edge and hope the Flames get some better bounces tonight.

FLORIDA PANTHERS @ VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS

Projected Goaltenders
Florida – James Reimer (expected)
Vegas – Marc-Andre Fleury (expected)

Injury Report
Florida – Malgin (probable)
Vegas – Carrier (out)

The Florida Panthers continue a lengthy road trip with just two wins over their last eight games. However, the Panthers have actually managed to secure at least a point in seven of their last ten games overall as they’ve been victim to extra time losses in three of those games. That has to be incredibly frustrating for a young team who has been playing better of late but just can’t get over the hump. Add in a key injury to their starting goaltender, Roberto Luongo, and one might think a trip to Vegas is a perfect time to let those frustrations out and blow off some stream under the neon lights of Sin City.

And that seems to be exactly what the Panthers had in mind as they immediately left Colorado and landed in Vegas Thursday night. Several Panthers players were spotted in a nightclub that night, as well as Friday night, so they’ve been enjoying the local scene for a couple of days.

The Vegas Golden Knights continue a long homestand after a 2-1 win over Pittsburgh on Thursday where Marc-Andre Fleury put on a show in getting a big win over his former club. Fleury made several big saves to preserve the victory but wasn’t overly busy having to make just 24 saves. The win set yet another milestone in the history books for the Knights as they became the quickest expansion team in NHL history to reach 20 wins. Vegas set the mark in just 31 games which was four games better than the 1926-27 New York Rangers.

A very interesting side note for this game is Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant who is the former coach of the Panthers. Gallant led Florida to a franchise-best 103 points and an Atlantic division title in 2015-16 but was fired just 22 games into last season in what became a huge PR fiasco for Florida. If you recall the story (and photos), Gallant was fired in November after a loss in Carolina where the team literally left him on the curb. He was told he couldn’t travel to the airport on the team bus and was left waiting for a cab with his bags. It was a cold termination and even though Gallant is a professional and says there were no hard feelings, you can damn well bet he’s had this game circled since the day he was hired as the first ever Golden Knights coach. The Panthers were decimated by early season injuries last year, including to star play Jonathan Huberdeau, but were still a respectable 11-10-1 at the time of Gallant’s firing. It was one of the most unfair firings in recent memory and Gallant won’t have forgot that.

You can also bet Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith will be eager to stick it to their former team. Marchessault scored 30 goals last season with Florida but was shockingly left unprotected for June’s expansion draft where Vegas selected him. All he’s done for the Knights this year is co-lead them in scoring with 26 points (10 goals). Smith was traded later during the draft for a lousy fourth round draft pick. He’s put up 23 points for Vegas.

This line opened a bit short, in my opinion, and jumped into the -170s before coming back down this morning to about the opening number. I was fully prepared to play Vegas in regulation today if we didn’t get our line value but we can play this straight up at the current number so that’s what we’ll do. I don’t expect this game to be close at all and entertained the thought of also playing this on the -1.5 puck line but things haven’t been going great lately so we’ll keep the emotions in check and just play this as a regular play. Feel free to throw this on with your NFL parlay today though.

-CHART EXPLANATION-

While I appreciate those of you who take the time to read the whole thing (there’s good info throughout!), the below chart is going to be your key each morning and hopefully it will be easy enough to follow (and hopefully I can explain it well).

Take a quick peek at the chart below. The first column is the rotation number found at the sportsbook for each game. For most of you this probably isn’t important but based on my past experience I know for a few it will be helpful. The second column is obviously each matchup for the night. The third column is the most important and I’ll come back to that in a moment.

The fourth column is the Opener which are the odds each game opened at the offshore sportsbook. I do most of my betting at Pinnacle but since that is unavailable to most Americans I’m going to be quoting odds from BetOnline who, in my opinion, are the most similar to Pinnacle odds for American bettors. It’s always good to have accounts at multiple books anyway so you can take advantage of price discrepancies.

The good thing about how I’m setting this up is it doesn’t matter where you bet your games at, you’re going to be able to know what number is okay to bet and at what point it’s no longer good. If you’re with a local who shades your lines or whatever, you might not always get to bet the same games each day, but you should never have to worry about getting a bad number or making a bad bet and hopefully that’s extremely helpful to you.

The fifth column is the current odds listed at BetOnline as of whatever time is listed below the chart. The last column is what I’m betting for the day and is likely the only column some of you will look at each day. And that’s fine, whatever works best for you, but our goal here is to not just give you a generic pick but rather help you understand the numbers a bit better. This is my first time sharing my info in such a public manner and I’m generally an impatient teacher but I’ll try and help you out as much as possible as we go along.

Back to the third column, “My Line Low/High Cut-off”. This is my current line on each game which I’ve carefully crafted. Rather than it being a single number, my process creates a varying range of where the line should fall when the market closes. If an opener is higher or lower than my range, I can usually count on the line moving toward my cut-off.

If the “Current” odds fall outside my range, then it’s a game we can bet on. If it falls inside the range, the game is a pass for me. Now, while any game that falls even 1 cent outside the range is technically open for a bet, my general rule is to only bet a game that is 8 cents or more outside the range. The higher the current odds are outside my range, the higher the edge is and chance of success.