NHL Betting News and Notes Monday, October 30th, 2017

NHL Knowledge

Las Vegas won its last five games, is 8-1 in its first NHL season, 2-0 on road. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Islanders won four of last five games overall, three of last four at home- their last five games went over the total.

Arizona is 0-11 to start the season, 0-6 on road; they’ve lost one game in OT- over is 8-2-1 in their games. Coyotes won their last three games with Philly. Home side won five of last six series games. Six of last seven series games went over the total. Flyers are 2-3 in their last five games; they’re 3-2 at home. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

Bruins won four of their last six games with Columbus; last four series games went over total. Bruins are 3-2 in their last five visits to Ohio. Boston is 4-5 this season, 4-1 in game following a loss- they’re 1-2 on road. Over is 5-4 in their games this season. Blue Jackets won six of last nine games; they split their last four home games. Under is 3-2 in their last five home games.

Montreal won its last three games with Ottawa, allowing five goals; over is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Canadiens won three of last five visits to Ottawa. Montreal lost its last five road games and 8 of last 10 games overall; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Senators lost four of last six games, with last three losses in OT/SO- they’re 2-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Home side won nine of last ten Tampa Bay-Florida games; Lightning lost their last five games in this building. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Tampa Bay won 8 of last 10 games, three of last four on road- under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Panthers lost five of last seven games; they’re 3-2 at home- eight of their last ten games went over the total.

Kings lost four of last five games with St Louis; under is 5-1 in last six series games. LA lost three of its last four games in this building. Kings won their last three games, with two wins in OT/SO— they’re 5-1 on the road. LA’s last four games stayed under. St Louis won five of last six games; they’re 4-0 at home. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Dallas Stars won nine of last ten games with Vancouver; over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Stars won four of their last five games in this building. Dallas won five of last seven games, but lost four of last six road games- four of their last five games went over total. Canucks won their last four games, allowing five goals; they lost three of last four home tilts- over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Sharks won their last nine games with Toronto; under is 4-2 in last six series games. Maple Leafs lost their last four games in Shark Tank by combined score of 19-4. Toronto lost three of its last four games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five. Leafs are 3-1 on the road this month. Sharks won four of last six games; they’re 2-3 at home. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

Armadillosports.com

NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com

MORNING LINE REPORT

Unlike Saturday night where we had the Leafs line move against us, we absolutely crushed the closing line last night which is always good to see. Unfortunately it didn’t work out as Carolina was absolutely robbed by Ryan Miller who didn’t look rusty at all in his season debut. He stopped two breakaways in overtime that were just fantastic to our dismay. It was one of the most frustrating losses of the season as Carolina dominated the majority of the game and looked in complete control after erasing an early 2-0 deficit to carry a 3-2 lead into the third.

Mike Sullivan pulled a fast one and announced Matt Murray as the starter again at his meeting with the media about 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time and I really wished he hadn’t. I immediately tweeted out the Pens as a play at -103. It wasn’t a play I loved because of the Pens travel but there was such a significant difference between Murray and DeSmith (much more than a regular starter/backup situation), I just couldn’t ignore that kind of edge and bit the bullet. Needless to say it didn’t go well as the Jets stormed out to an early 5-0 lead in the opening 20 minutes.

The NHL schedule is a bit different this week as Tuesday has a light card due to Halloween so we get treated with eight games tonight. We have some edges so let’s get back on track after our first tough weekend of the season.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Projected Goaltenders
Vegas – Oscar Dansk (probable)
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak (confirmed)

Injury Report
Vegas – no significant injuries
NY Islanders – no significant injuries

The Vegas Golden Knights continue the best start by any expansion club in NHL history, now at 8-1-0 thanks to a home heavy schedule which saw them just complete a 6-1-0 homestand. Now, life will get interesting for the Knights as they embark on their first lengthy road trip on the season with a grueling six games in nine nights. The month of November will decide whether this team is for real as they’ll play nine of 13 games on the road with a step up in competition.

Take nothing away from Vegas’ hot start as they’ve definitely earned their wins but the schedule makers did them a solid on easing them into the league with only three of their nine opponents to this date having qualified for last year’s playoffs.
Marc-Andre Fleury still hasn’t started skating yet and did not accompany the team to begin the road trip so Oscar Dansk and Maxime Legace will have to hold things down in this busy week which will include two back-to-backs.

Vadim Shipachyov was suspended by the team for going AWOL from the AHL Chicago Wolves. Shipachyov was expected to play Saturday night for the Wolves but didn’t show up and no one knew where he was. It’s become a mess of a situation and now there’s talk of a contract termination happening as early as today.

Jason Garrison was placed on waivers and cleared over the weekend after having been a healthy scratch for four straight games. It’s expected that Shea Theodore may finally be called up now which would be a big boost for the blueline. Theodore has torn up the AHL to begin this season. Griffin Reinhart was also waived this weekend.

The New York Islanders have now won four of their last five games after an impressive 6-2 win at Nashville on Saturday night as John Tavares continued to stay hot. Tavares scored his second hat trick in three games and is now quietly third in the NHL with nine goals. Jordan Eberle responded well to being removed from the top line with his first two goals of the season.

Vegas will have their chance to spoil my mood this week as I expect we’ll be fading them a lot if this first line is any indication. Vegas has quickly gone from an underpriced home team to an overpriced road team. This line came down a bit overnight so it’s not quite as juicy. I hate laying the big juice but there’s considerable value here so I’ll happily jump on the Isles.

ARIZONA COYOTES @ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Antti Raanta/Scott Wedgewood (unknown)
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott (probable)

Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out)
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out), Gostisbehere (doubtful), Patrick (questionable)

The Arizona Coyotes winless streak reached 11 games after Saturday’s 4-3 loss at New Jersey. The Coyotes have now given up a league high 4.36 goals per game with a league low .863 save percentage which prompted General Manager John Chayka to shake up his goaltending. Louis Domingue (0-6, .856 save percentage) was placed on waivers while Adin Hill (0-3, .880) was reassigned to the AHL. Veteran journeyman Scott Wedgewood was acquired in a trade with New Jersey for a 2018 fifth-round draft pick and he’ll now become Antti Raanta’s backup, although it’s possible he could be starting tonight.

Raanta was placed back on IR over the weekend in a paper move but he’s eligible to be removed any time and could be in time to start tonight. He’s been practicing with the team and it’s believed he’s almost ready. We’ll see if he skates this morning.

The Philadelphia Flyers snapped a two game losing streak with an impressive 4-2 win over Toronto on Saturday night. The win may have come at a price, however, as defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere left the game in the second period after a hard hit by Leo Komarov and did not return. He’s more doubtful than questionable for tonight and would be a significant loss for the Flyers who are already down Andy MacDonald. Sam Morin was recalled from the AHL and could make his highly anticipated season debut tonight but we’ll have to wait for the morning skate for Gostisbehere’s official status.

Nolan Patrick missed his second consecutive game as he’s still awaiting medical clearance for his suspected concussion last Tuesday.

Arizona was the better team on Saturday night and are getting closer to that first win. I’ll likely be looking to jump on the Coyotes the first game Raanta’s back and that could be tonight. It would set up well with Philly hurting defensively if Gostisbehere is out. We’ll wait for a line to open here and get confirmation on who’s in and who’s out but it’ll be Arizona or nothing tonight.

BOSTON BRUINS @ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

Projected Goaltenders
Boston – Tuukka Rask (confirmed)
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky (probable)

Injury Report
Boston – Spooner (out), Krejci (out), McQuaid (out)
Columbus – Carlsson (out), Atkinson (questionable)

The Boston Bruins are searching for consistency after alternating wins and losses over the last six games. Their latest loss was a heartbreaking 2-1 overtime decision to Los Angeles who scored one of the greatest (luckiest?) goals you’ll see this season. Boston iced the puck with just 0.9 seconds left on the clock and Tyler Toffoli one-timed a perfect face-off win by Anze Kopitar past a surprised Rask for the winner as the clock expired. As a diehard Kings fan it was one of the greatest goals ever but I had to feel for Boston backers there.

The Bruins now hit the road for a single game in a tough spot before returning home for the next three again. David Krejci will miss his fourth straight game and is still not skating. Anton Khudobin may be away from the team for a personal matter as Zane McIntyre was called up and will backup Rask tonight.

The Columbus Blue Jackets lost 4-1 at St. Louis on Saturday on the tail end of a back-to-back and will play their third game in four nights and fourth in six tonight. Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to be back in net but the status of Cam Atkinson is up in the air. He took a puck up high in the second period last game and only played two shifts in the third before being shut down. The Jackets did not practice yesterday and will not hold a morning skate today, so we’ll likely have to wait until this evening before a status update.

I don’t see much interest in this game as the current line is within my expected range. It’s a tough spot for both teams and with Atkinson’s status unknown we’ll likely just pass on this one.

MONTREAL CANADIENS @ OTTAWA SENATORS

Projected Goaltenders
Montreal – Carey Price (confirmed)
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)

Injury Report
Montreal – Schlemko (out), Hemsky (out)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Ryan (out), Turris (doubtful), Wideman (questionable)

The Montreal Canadiens strong possession numbers may finally be starting to pay off as the team scored five goals for the second time in three games with Saturday’s 5-4 win over the Rangers. Montreal now hits the road for four games where they’ve struggled with just one victory in six tries.

Claude Julien’s new line combinations may be providing the spark they needed to get some guys going. Phillip Danault scored two goals and added two assists on Saturday. His lone goal this season had been a shorthanded marker in the season opener. His new linemate, Max Pacioretty, has scored twice in the past three games after his previous lone goal had also come in the season opener.

The Ottawa Senators will kick off a three game homestand this week before heading to Sweden for a pair of games against the Avalanche and the Canadian Tire Center hasn’t been a very lucky place thus far with a 2-1-4 home record.

The Senators will be shorthanded again for this one as Bobby Ryan continues to deal with a hand injury and Kyle Turris is highly doubtful as he recovers from a nasty virus. Third-pair defenseman Chris Wideman missed last game with a stiff neck and is questionable for tonight.

Ottawa had a successful 3-0 swing through Western Canada to begin the season but have looked out of sorts the past couple of weeks and the cracks in their game are creeping in more and more. The Senators have just two games this season where they’ve won the possession battle at 5-on-5.

There’s no doubt we’re going to be on Montreal here as this was just a terrible opener but I wish it hadn’t been bet down overnight. At BetOnline it opened Ottawa -134 and is now -106. There’s still a small bit of value on the Canadiens so we’ll lock them in as a play but hopefully this number stays low enough for everyone to get on board this morning.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING @ FLORIDA PANTHERS

Projected Goaltenders
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy (confirmed)
Florida – James Reimer (probable)

Injury Report
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries
Florida – no significant injuries

Tampa Bay and Florida will meet for the third time already this season after splitting the opening two games of the season for each team. It was a good split for the Lightning who were absolutely dominated in terms of possession for both games.

Tampa Bay’s four game win streak was snapped with Saturday’s 4-1 loss to Anaheim. Peter Budaj took the loss which means Vasilevskiy will be back in net tonight and he’ll be looking to tie a franchise record with his ninth consecutive win.

The Florida Panthers dropped a 3-2 shootout to Detroit on Saturday as they continue a five game homestand. The Panthers had been dominating teams in terms of possession to begin the season but have fallen off that pace at an alarming rate.

Jared McCann, Connor Brickley and Colton Sceviour remain out for the Cats and while I mentioned before how none of these players are individually significant enough for a line movement (at least in my system) it is having an effect on their lineup. Those three are relied on for penalty killing minutes and without them the team has been relying on Barkov and Trocheck more which has seen an increase in their ice-time. Florida has been successful on the kill the last two games but that was against two pretty weak powerplay units in Anaheim and Detroit. Before that, they had the league’s worst penalty killing numbers and against the high-powered Lightning that could be a recipe for disaster tonight.

This line opened where I thought it should but has bounced up and down overnight. When I started writing this it was at -109 for Tampa which would have qualified as a play but has moved back up to -114. We’ll keep an eye on this one to see where it goes but if it gets below -111 again at some point I’ll be looking to jump on the Bolts here.

LOS ANGELES KINGS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES

Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (likely)
St. Louis – Jake Allen (probable)

Injury Report
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out), Clifford (out), Fantenberg (questionable)
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)

The Los Angeles Kings won for the fourth time in five games and will wrap up this long six game road trip with a tough spot in St. Louis which features two of the three teams currently tied at the top of the NHL overall standings.

The loss of Jeff Carter hasn’t caused the Kings to miss a beat as the emergence of Adrian Kempe has made the second line with Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson as dangerous as the top line has been thus far. As one of the Kings top prospects in the organization it’s not too surprising to see him excel in his new role. Another rookie, Alex Iafallo, continues to impress on the top line despite not being rewarded on the scoresheet. Iafallo has been flying around the offensive zone which has helped create space for Kopitar and Brown. I’m still not sure what to really think about this Kings team but their advanced metrics as well as the eye test are becoming more and more positive each time out. They’re still in line for a bit of regression but it’s becoming more reasonable to believe this could be a playoff team.

The St. Louis Blues are a perfect 4-0 on home ice after Saturday’s 4-1 win over Columbus. Jake Allen made 36 saves and had arguably one of his best games ever as a Blues player.

This line has moved a bit higher on St. Louis since the open and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go higher. I think it’s already slightly above where it should be and we’ll probably be looking at LA or nothing here tonight. It’s a really tough spot being the final game of a long road trip so I’ll likely sit this one out unless the line moves to a ridiculous number.

DALLAS STARS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom/Anders Nilsson (unknown)

Injury Report
Dallas – Johns (out), Hanzal (questionable)
Vancouver – Edler (out), Stecher (out), Eriksson (out), Boeser (out)

The Dallas Stars halted a two game losing streak on their current five game road trip with Friday’s 2-1 win at Calgary. Ken Hitchcock says the Stars are better than their 6-5-0 record would indicate and their advanced metrics would tend to agree with that statement. Dallas has been one of the best teams at controlling possession at 5-on-5 but has one of the lowest shooting percentages at just 6.43%. Their PDO (an advanced luck-based metric which combines shooting percentage and save percentage) is also one of the lowest in the league. The Stars are likely due for a bit of a correction in the near future and hopefully it starts tonight.

The team has used this trip through Western Canada to strengthen their bond in a number of team-building exercises including a practice in a small rink in Whistler yesterday where the players had a lot of fun and said it felt like playing hockey when they were a kid. That’s important early in the season for any team but in particular for one with so many new faces like the Stars.

The Vancouver Canucks have won five of six after Thursday’s 6-2 thumping of Washington but will be missing their leading scorer tonight as rookie Brock Boeser will be out with a foot contusion after blocking a shot against the Capitals. He was unable to practice yesterday but it’s not believed to be long-term although his status is in question for all of this week’s games.

I have this number being significantly higher than the market but it’s already moving towards my number. After opening at a pretty silly -105 it’s now up to -119 and likely to climb higher once word on Boeser gets out. He isn’t even listed on the injury report for one reputable line service so hopefully we can still get on this number early enough today.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ SAN JOSE SHARKS

Projected Goaltenders
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (probable)
San Jose – Martin Jones (probable)

Injury Report
Toronto – van Riemsdyk (probable)
San Jose – Martin (doubtful)

The biggest storyline in San Jose tonight will be the homecoming for Patrick Marleau and that seems to be grabbing all the headlines. I’m not going to touch on this game much as I don’t see an edge at the current number but mostly because my number was very off on the Maple Leafs on Saturday. I found an error in my formula for that game and made a correction and was happy to see my number lined up more with the opener for this one but I’m going to be a bit cautious this week on Toronto to make sure I have things right again.