NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, October 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Road team won 9 of last 10 Colorado-Boston games; Avalanche won four of last six, winning last five visits to Beantown. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Colorado split its first two games this season, both on road (over 1-0-1). Bruins won their opener 4-3 over Nashville at home Thursday.
Home side won 7 of last 10 St Louis-Islander games; New York won three of last four meetings (under 3-1). Blues lost 2-1/3-2 in their last two visits here. St Louis won its first two games this season, scoring nine goals (over 2-0). Islanders split their first two games (over 1-1), beating Buffalo 6-3 at home Saturday.
Devils won eight of last nine games with Buffalo, winning last four visits to western NY by a combined score of 11-5. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. New Jersey won its opener 4-1 at home over Colorado. Sabres lost their first two games 6-3/3-2so (over 1-0-1).
Chicago won its last five games with Toronto; last two went OT/SO. Blackhawks won 4-1/2-1ot in their last two visits here. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. Chicago scored 15 goals in winning its first two games, both at home (over 2-0). Maple Leafs also scored 15 goals in winning their first two games (over 2-0), one at home, one on road.
Washington won 7 of its last 8 games with Tampa Bay, winning three of last four visits here. Over is 6-3 in last nine series games. Caps scored 11 goals in winning their first two games, including a SO win in Ottawa (over 2-0). Lightning split a pair of games with Florida to open their season (over 2-0)- home team won both games.
Edmonton won its last four games with Winnipeg; road team won four of last five meetings. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games. Teams split last four series games played here. Jets lost 6-3/7-2 in their first two games this season (over 2-0). Oilers split their first two games, with home team winning both (under 2-0).
Anaheim won its last seven games with Calgary; they swept the Flames out of the playoffs last spring. Calgary lost its last five visits to Orange County by combined score of 21-9 (under is 2-0-2 in last four). Flames split their first two games (over 1-1), with home team winning both. Ducks split their first two games, both of which were at home (over 1-1).
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ BOSTON BRUINS
Colorado and Boston kick off the trio of afternoon games to start the holiday. The Avs haven’t given up an even-strength goal through their first two games which is a testament to how strong their goaltending has been between Varlamov and Bernier, because the defense has given up 78 shots on goal and looked leaky. The penalty kill, in particular, has given up five goals and had a lot of trouble clearing pucks from the zone which has led to increased scoring scores against and only a 50% successful kill rate.
Injuries continue to mount early in the season for Boston but they should get some help today as defenseman Torey Krug is probable to return. He made it through a full practice on Sunday while wearing a full face shield. It sounds like Bergeron will miss another game. He wore a non-contact jersey in practice yesterday and had to leave early. Cassidy is calling him day-to-day but it doesn’t look good for today.
This line at -210 is a little inflated so we’re going to back the big ugly road dog to start off the day. It can be hard to pull the trigger on a game like this but I’ve learned to trust the numbers. Just remember we’re going to lose this bet more often than we win but if we continue making bets with an edge on the house, it will result in a net profit for us in the long run.
ST. LOUIS BLUES @ NY ISLANDERS
The Blues are off to a 2-0 start with wins over Pittsburgh and Dallas, despite being without four regulars in the lineup. Mike Yeo has them playing a new up-tempo style to keep teams on their heels with the defense pushing the pace to jump into the play. Of the nine goals scored by the Blues so far, five have come from defensemen.
While that has helped to generate more offense, they’ve given up 73 shots in two games and relied on Jake Allen, who has been brilliant. Looks like he’s picked up right where he left off in last year’s playoffs.
No line is available here yet but we have all the significant info we need with injuries and goaltenders. Based on my range above (-144/-149), if New York opens -136 or lower then we’ll play the Isles. If they open -157 or higher we’ll play St. Louis. In between is no play. I don’t play many totals throughout the year but this is one where I might be interested in the Over. I’ll tweet out an update later.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ BUFFALO SABRES
We’ll want to keep an eye on the morning skate for this one as Palmieri and Stafford are both questionable. Neither was able to practice Sunday but will travel with the team for this afternoon’s game. Coach Hynes said it’s possible one or both could be a game-time decision.
Buffalo has scored five goals this season in two games and all of them have been scored by their top line of Kane, Eichel and Pominville. To try and jumpstart the secondary offense, Housley is flipping Sam Reinhart and Ryan O’Reilly at the second and third line center positions today. The Sabres have looked incredibly fast in their first two games and are displaying more of a shooting mentality but they’ve had some trouble with the smaller details and execution of Housley’s new system.
Robin Lehner was pulled in Saturday’s start after allowing four goals on 16 shots in 27 minutes. Chad Johnson looked good in relief stopping 15 of 16 and Housley could go with him today, although he hasn’t tipped his hand either way so we’ll have to wait for the morning skate.
This will be a key game I’ll update on Twitter later this morning. My range above (-130/-131) is with Palmieri and Stafford in the lineup but there’s a good chance at least one of them won’t play. If either Stafford or Palmieri are out and Lehner starts, then we’ll have enough value to fire on Buffalo.
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
The Hawks and Leafs are setting some early history as both teams have scored 15 goals in their first two games. I’ve talked about Toronto’s depth and their ability to roll four solid lines and it’s showing as 12 different goal scorers have already found the back of the net. Chicago’s depth has also been impressive as they have nine different goal scorers.
That Hawks depth will be tested in this one as second-line center Nick Schmaltz will miss at least the next two games. Anisimov, who centered Kane’s line last year, will jump back up into that role tonight. Tanner Kero is expected to return after a one game absence and will likely center the third line with possibly Tommy Wingels slotting in as the fourth centerman.
Of note, this is a front-end of a back-to-back for Chicago as they travel to Montreal on Tuesday. Backup goaltender Anton Forsberg will likely get one of the starts and I think it will be tonight. Crawford is 7-0-2 with a 1.55 GAA and .951 Sv% in his career versus the Canadiens so it would make sense for Quenneville to want to use him tomorrow. Now, those career stats for a goalie against a particular team are really nonsense and have no effect on the next game, but coaches love to use them as a reason.
My above range (-123/-143) accounts for Forsberg starting. It’s wider than usual so it’s unlikely we’ll have any side value here, but let’s not overthink this one too much. Look to play the Over (probably 6) when it comes out.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
The Capitals burned me on Saturday night when they took down Montreal. Or should I say Alex Ovechkin burned me. If I knew it was Vladimir Putin’s birthday on Saturday I wouldn’t have bet on Montreal (I’m joking… kinda). Ovechkin gave him a nice birthday gift with a four goal outburst, giving him seven in the first two games. He’s the first player to record back-to-back hat tricks to open a season in 100 years (the NHL’s inaugural season in 1917-18).
Tampa Bay gave up a whopping 84 shots in a home-and-home with Florida over the weekend but managed to earn a split thanks to the stellar play of Vasilevskiy. He gave up eight goals but was hung out to dry on most of them and the score could have been much worse if not for him. For a team whose biggest issue last season was giving up quality scoring chances, it’s a bit of a concern to see them repeating those same mistakes.
Holtby gets the nod for the Caps and I would expect Vasilevskiy for the Bolts, although I’ve been unable to confirm. No injuries in this one so shouldn’t be anything else to look at here. This line opened within my range but has seen overnight Washington money to take it down to -106. This is currently outside my range enough to warrant a bet on Tampa Bay but I’m going to wait until I see Vasilevskiy confirmed in net. If he is and the price remains this low, I’ll definitely be adding Tampa Bay later this morning.
WINNIPEG JETS @ EDMONTON OILERS
Connor Hellebuyck will get his first start of the season after watching Steve Mason give up 11 goals over 11 periods. Mason actually hasn’t been too bad but a lack of discipline and a seriously loose defense continue to be a problem for the Jets early this season as they had several blown coverages down low Saturday night against Calgary.
The Oilers certainly didn’t look anything like their first game as they were punched in the mouth by a scrappy Vancouver team on Saturday night. Talbot was pulled after allowing three goals on just seven shots and he’s eager to get back in the crease for this one tonight.
Oilers winger Anton Slepyshev is expected to make his debut after being limited in the preseason with an ankle injury and then an illness. He practiced on the second line with Lucic and Nugent-Hopkins. The Oilers are expecting a big step in his development this year and he could be a big key to increasing their secondary scoring. Third-line winger Drake Caggiula will be out with an undisclosed injury. Zach Kassian will slide into his spot on the wing. Look for the Oilers to be focused for this one and take advantage of a struggling Jets team. I really like the Oilers here but we’re getting another slightly inflated line on the public Oilers so looks like we’ll be sitting this one out.
CALGARY FLAMES @ ANAHEIM DUCKS
The only narrative you’ll hear about for this game today is how Calgary has no chance because they’ve never, ever, won a game in Anaheim, losing an NHL-record 29 straight times.
What a story it would be if the ageless wonder, Jaromir Jagr, suited up for his first game as a Flame and helped end that ominous streak. Well, it could happen. Jagr is expected to play in either tonight’s game or Wednesday in Los Angeles but we’ll have to wait for a bit before we find out for sure.
Anaheim has impressively managed to secure three of a possible four points so far while missing a good chunk of their regular starting lineup. Nick Ritchie was the latest casualty as he was a late scratch before Saturday night’s game.
Good news is it appears help is on the way. Getzlaf returned to practice for the first time on Sunday and felt good. Ritchie was on the ice, as well, and should return. Even Patrick Eaves made it through his first full practice, although he won’t be returning tonight.
I don’t like the Flames chances tonight with Getzlaf returning but I have a feeling there’s going to be some value on Calgary when this line opens, especially if Jagr plays. This might end up being one of those plug your nose bets as you hit the submit button. I’ll update on Twitter, accordingly.