NHL Situational Sports Betting Tips November 6-12, 2017
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
It’s hard to believe that nearly 20 percent of the regular season is over for some NHL teams already. Time just seems to be flying by, but we are more than a month into the campaign at this point. The excitement of a new season has started to wear off and teams are starting to settle into a rhythm. Basically, we’re starting to see what teams are and what they are probably going to be for the majority of the year. There are some outliers on the positive and negative side, but we have a good idea of what we are working with.
The great equalizer in these daily winter sports is the schedule. The schedule creates opportunities each and every week for teams to fall victim to bad situational spots. We’ve had a lot of success isolating those in past seasons and we’re off to a good start with them this season as well.
Here are the NHL situational betting spots for the week ending November 12:
Monday November 6
Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers – The Blue Jackets are in a tricky spot on Monday night against the New York Rangers. They have two days off prior to this game, which is the front end of a back-to-back with Tuesday’s game against the Predators coming up. It is a division game, so it should get the team’s full effort, but this comes after a swing through the Sunshine State to battle Florida and Tampa Bay. Interestingly enough, it will be a similar setup for the Rangers, who played Tampa Bay and Florida opposite the nights that Columbus did. The Rangers are a pretty bad team this season, but this might be a spot to look them up as a home underdog.
Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs – The Golden Knights spent a lot of time with the comforts of home before embarking on this long road trip that started last Monday. The fifth game in eight nights is this one against Toronto. Toronto is not a good team to face when fatigued. This, however, is the first home game back for the Maple Leafs off of a pretty grueling four games in six days stretch with the three California teams and the St. Louis Blues. Toronto will be a very big favorite, but the Knights might not be a bad look with the Maple Leafs in a less noticeable, yet compromising, spot. The goaltending situation for Vegas is pretty dire, though, which is another checkmark for the Leafs. Maybe it is a game to stay away from. But, this is how you want to handicap games. Look at all angles.
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars – The Rapid Revenge Theory is in play between the Jets and Stars on Monday night. The Jets rolled 5-2 over the Stars in Manitoba last Thursday. The Stars now have a quick shot at retribution at American Airlines Center. This is the second game back at home for Dallas, so they should be fully focused and ready to go. For the Jets, it is the start of a lengthy road trip. Those spots can be good for a team, as they look to set the tone for the trip, but I’d look Dallas here with the revenge angle in play.
Tuesday November 7
Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens –The Knights are wrapping up this grueling road trip with a back-to-back. They’ll be back home again on Friday to take on Winnipeg. Montreal is in the first game back after a long trip, which, as we’ve discussed, isn’t a great spot. The Canadiens are quite bad and Carey Price is now dealing with a lower-body injury, so Montreal may not even have that big advantage in net. There’s a chance that this game serves as a rallying point for Vegas, especially if Monday doesn’t go well. All signs point to take Montreal, but wait and see how Monday plays out first.
Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres – This could be a flat spot extraordinaire for the Washington Capitals. They have already been hurt by injuries this season and are dealing with some depth woes. This is a back-to-back after hosting the Coyotes on Monday, who are the worst team in the league. Buffalo isn’t a whole lot better. On Friday, the Capitals host the Penguins and those games always mean just a little bit more. It seems unlikely that we’ll get Washington’s best effort here, but they’ll be a clear road favorite. Buffalo enters the week with one home win in five games. They’ll want this one and I think they’ll get it.
St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils – This is a hard game. New Jersey is the biggest surprise in the NHL and is playing at a level that probably isn’t sustainable. The Blues, however, are in a standalone road game spot with two days off prior and one day off after. Maybe New Jersey’s record gets St. Louis up for this game. The Blues are also playing at a very high level. It does seem more sustainable for St. Louis, but the Devils have a really good coach in John Hynes. We’ll have to see how long New Jersey can keep this up, but I can tell you that we’ll probably see a move against New Jersey on this line. If you like the Blues, get it early. If you like the Devils, wait it out.
Wednesday November 8
Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks – Tampa Bay kicks off the California swing on Wednesday with a visit to San Jose. They’ll face the Kings on Thursday and the Ducks on Sunday, which is a little bit unique. This could be a flat spot for the Sharks. They’ve been sitting around at home with three days off prior to this one and have two more days off following this game. With the Bolts looking to set the tone for the road team, taking them as a decent road dog isn’t a bad look.
Thursday November 9
Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers – After sitting around for four days, the Flyers finally get back on the ice and face the Blackhawks. Philadelphia got shut out by the Blackhawks last Wednesday, so we have a bit of the Rapid Revenge Theory in play. Philadelphia has actually been pretty good this season, but doesn’t really have the record to show it. Since the 15-2 barrage to start the year with wins over the Penguins and the Blue Jackets, the Blackhawks have been extremely mediocre. They still get respect in the betting markets based on reputation. I’d expect Philadelphia to be ready here with the recent matchup looming large. The Blackhawks also had three days off, so their legs might take a little while to get going on the East Coast.
Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens – The Canadiens host the Wild on Thursday, as Minnesota plays its third game in four nights, all on the road. Montreal has a pretty light week, but nothing is all that light for a team that can’t score goals and hasn’t been able to prevent them. The spot is not good for Minnesota here, a team that has been tested a lot by injuries this season, but they are clearly the better team. If the price is right, take a shot on them.
Friday November 10
Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals – I hate to disappoint with this week’s article, but there just aren’t that many good games that fit what we’re trying to do. This one simply gets a spot here because it is a heated rivalry. The Capitals are down this season with some injuries. The Penguins have played well at home, but have had some issues on the road. Some are speculating that the loss of Marc-Andre Fleury has altered some locker room dynamics for the Penguins. Typically, this is a must-see game, but right now, it’s just another one on the docket. Given the uncertainty with both teams, I wouldn’t touch it.
Ottawa Senators vs. Colorado Avalanche – This looks like a tough spot in the altitude for the Senators, but it is not. In fact, this game will be playing in Stockholm, Sweden. This is called the NHL Global series and it will feature two games in the capital of Sweden. Obviously, we have no idea what to expect here in a spot like this, but this is a back-to-back set for these two teams. Colorado will be the home team in Game 1, so they will have the advantage of the last line change. That will go to Ottawa in Game 2 on Saturday.
Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights – How will the Golden Knights respond in their first game back at home? After two days off to recover from the long East Coast trip, an appreciative fan base will be excited to see the team back at home. The Jets have three days off prior to this one and at least Thursday night to get in some trouble in Sin City. This is actually a standalone home game for VGK, with a trip to Edmonton early next week. With that in mind, despite the first home game back angle, they’re the play.
Saturday November 11
Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins – The Senators and Avs aren’t the only ones with a home-and-home. The Maple Leafs and Bruins have one as well. Friday’s game is nothing special from a situational standpoint. Saturday’s is, since the Rapid Revenge Theory will be in play, among other things. This is a standalone road game for Toronto with four days off afterwards, but I don’t think that really matters. The Maple Leafs are the better team, but we’ll have to see how Friday plays out and how the goaltending situations look. This is really not a good week for situational spots. It’s frustrating, but low-exposure weeks aren’t always a bad thing.
Sunday November 12
New Jersey Devils at Chicago Blackhawks – I’d expect a lot of people to fade the Devils on Sunday. It is a back-to-back with travel for both teams, but you have two teams in two very different spots. The Devils are overachieving. Many will argue that the Blackhawks are underachieving. With Chicago back home at the UC after a visit to Raleigh to face a Hurricanes team on a back-to-back, they’ll get some steam here. Once again, if you like Chicago, grab it early. If you like the Devils, grab them late.
In the Crease - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Sharky's Machine
The San Jose Sharks have been a machine lately...a machine for 'under' results, that is. They have pumped out six consecutive 'under' results in a row, a streak which will be tested when the Tampa Bay Lightning come calling on Wednesday evening. While the 'under' is 3-2 over Tampa Bay's past five outings overall, they're averaging 4.33 goals per game away from home this season. The good news is that the 'under' has connected in Tampa's only two games against Western Conference foes so far. However, the 'over' is 6-1 inthe past seven meetings at SAP Center in San Jose, and 10-3 in the past 13 meetings overall.
Not a Wild Ride
The Minnesota Wild have stumbled out of the chute this season, failing to piece together a win or unbeaten streak of more than two games. The good news is that they have lost in regulation in back-to-back games just once, and they haven't incurred a three-game losing streak all season. They limp into Wednesday's game on a two-game slide, so if trends continue, they'll win in Toronto. And hey, they are a perfect 7-0 in their past seven meetings with the Maple Leafs. Bettors looking for a nice parlay might want to thump the 'under', too, which is 5-0 in the past five meetings at Air Canada Centre, and 10-1 in the past 11 meetings overall in this series.
Looking Ahead
Wednesday, November 8
It's a light slate on Wednesday, with just three games, and we touched on two of the games already. The nationally-televised game is a Battle of Original Six squads, and one team is struggling while the other is heating up.
Boston has won 13 of their past 17 against teams with a losing record, but they're just 5-14 in their past 19 games against Metropolitan Division foes. In addition, they're a dismal 1-6 in their past seven tries on one day of rest, 0-8 in their past eight following a win and a poor 0-4 in their past four tries against Eastern Conference opponents. Conversely, the Rangers have started to come alive after a brutal start. The Blueshirts have won four in a row overall, four of their past five games at Madison Square Garden and they have taken five in a row against the B's. The home team has cashed in seven of the past nine in this series, with the Bruins going a horrendous 7-19 in their past 26 skates at MSG. The 'over' is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings in Manhattan, and 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.
Thursday, November 9
Two teams playing their fourth game in six days will square off at Bell Centre on Thursday when the Wild battle Les Habitants. The Wild have won four in a row in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation, but the Habs have also excelled in the role. They're 5-2 in their past seven tries in the fourth game of a 4-in-6. And for what it's worth, Minnesota has crushed it on Thursdays, going 17-5 in their past 22 showings on the day. They have also crushed it against the Habs, winning six in a row in this series, although the home team has won eight of the past 10 in this series. Total bettors will like the fact the 'over' is 3-0-2 in the past five meetings in Montreal, and 3-0-1 in the past four overall in the series.
The team with the most points in the Western Conference (as of Wednesday AM) takes on the team with the worst record in the NHL, so if you plan to bet the favorite I hope you're hungry for a ton of chalk. The Coyotes have been brutal this season, and they're not very good in the third game in four days, either, dropping four in a row in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. The Blues have been tremendous, winning eight of their past nine at home, while excelling in five of their past six against Western Conference foes. And as you might expect, St. Louis has had their way with Arizona, winning five straight home meetings, and 24 of the past 31 overall in the series.
Friday, November 10
The Bruins and Maple Leafs renew acquaintances in Toronto on Friday night, and the Buds look to maintain their dominance against the B's after years of struggles. Last season Toronto turned the tables on Boston, sweeping the regular season series 4-0, outscoring the Bruins 18-9. That was a stark contrast to the year before when Boston polished off Toronto in four of the five meetings. For years the B's dominated this series, and they even took a playoff series from Toronto as well. While Toronto has been much better this season and the last, lately they have struggled with the home cooking. They haven't won in regulation at home in three tries, going 1-2-0-0.
The Islanders skate in the Metroplex on Friday night in what could be a very entertaining game. As of Wednesday morning, the Isles were an impressive 3-0-1 in their past four tries against Western Conference foes, and they have lit the lamp three or more times in eight of their past nine outings. The Stars, on the other hand, have been all over the board. They have scored two or fewer goals in four of their past five outings, but also allowed exactly one goal in three of the past five. The 'under' is 3-1-1 across their past five after a 4-0 over streak. Inconsistency has been the rule for Dallas, a team that entered the season with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations.
Saturday, November 11
The Avalanche and Senators will do battle in matinee action (1:00 p.m. ET) in Canada's capital city. That's 11:00 a.m. MT, so obviously a very early start for the visitors. Matinee games usually see some tired legs in the beginning, and an 'under' result can follow. This one will be interesting, too, as the Avalanche just traded disgrunted Matt Duchene to Ottawa in a three-way deal involving the Predators. So he'll get a chance to skate against his former club, so that's a storyline to watch, too.
The Canadiens welcome the Sabres to Bell Centre, as Buffalo looks to avenge an Opening Night shootout loss back on Oct. 5. In that game in Buffalo, Phillip Danault scored a shorthanded goal at 8:01 of the third period to force overtime, stunning the Sabres who appeared to have control of the game from the get-go. Robin Lehner was unable to steer the team to a victory, falling in the shootout in a game which was a huge disappointment. A close game is par for the course between these rivals, as three of the past four have been decided by one goal.
Best and Worst Bets
By BetOnline.ag
BEST NHL BETS
As usual, don’t overthink these ones. You might take a hit here and there, but overall, these teams will pay you back handsomely.
Nashville Predators
There’s a lot to love here. The Predators are on a three-game winning streak on the road, and return home where they’ve only lost two games so far this year. They have some great matchups which will reduce the value of the line against them as well. Home stands against a reeling Pittsburgh team and a Washington squad that’s being outscored at a rabid pace. Bet away.
Next Games: vs. Pittsburgh (11/11), vs. Washington (11/14)
New Jersey Devils
The streaking New Jersey Devils are stuck in the gutter right now with a three-game losing skid that has many scurrying away. Not so fast. They have a terrific slate over the next three games which includes pretty bad teams. They host the wobbly Oilers and the downtrodden Panthers before packing up ship and heading to Chicago next week. All three of those teams have leaky defences, and the Devils are still one of the best scoring teams in the NHL. Business is about to pick up for the Devils so hop on board.
Next Games: vs. Edmonton (11/9), vs. Florida (11/10, at Chicago (11/12)
St. Louis Blues
By consensus the Blues are currently the best team in the league, and that’s going to heavily inflate their moneylines. Fortunately, the Blues are also dynamite against the puckline with a league leading 12-4 ATS record. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but the Blues also have an absolutely tempting chunk of schedule coming up. Most times the moneyline is the easier way to bet on NHL hockey, but with the Blues the only way to get value is by taking the spread. In their last four wins, they’ve averaged a +2.25 scoring differential over a 4-1 SU streak.
Next Gams: vs. Arizona (11/9), vs. NYI (11/11), at Calgary (11/13)
WAIT AND SEE
These are the teams that are either worth betting through the weekend or are important stay-away plays. You never know what kind of momentum crops up and a lot of that depends on how they fare in Wednesday’s slate.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs began as the league’s top team with a 7-1 SU outburst that has leveled off tremendously in recent weeks. Since then, the young Maple Leafs have fallen to just 3-6 SU in their last 9 games. A lot of it is that goalie Frederik Andersen has faced more high-quality shots than any other netminder in the league this year. The NHL has a metric for this called “high-danger shots”, and Andersen has seen 58 this year, letting in 11. Until Toronto can better protect their goalie’s sanity, they’re better to steer clear from despite an inviting schedule.
Next Games: vs. Minnesota (11/8 ), vs. Boston (11/10), at Boston (11/11)
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks are riding a beautiful four-game win streak heading in to tonight’s clash against the Tampa Bay Lightning, which will set up their momentum for matchups against the Canucks and Kings, who have also been riding pretty high. The Sharks are either going to see their streak continue by beating the Lightning tonight, or they’re a stay-away team until further notice. It’s probably going to be the latter to be honest, which also makes them a bet-against property for most.
Next Games: vs. Tampa (11/8 ), vs. Vancouver (11/11), at Los Angeles (11/12)
WORST NHL BETS
Chicago Blackhawks
By far one of the bigger public teams based on roster strength and name value alone, the Chicago Blackhawks have been dismal all season long. They’re just 7-6-2 on the season and are a brutal 7-8 ATS as well. The major problem is that you never know when to expect a good product from them. They recently shutout Philly and Minnesota in back-to-back efforts but lost three games prior to that and just got shutout by Montreal, arguably the worst team in the league. They’re worse than a bet-against feature. They’re a complete stay-away because of how volatile their performances seem to be.
Next Games: at Philadelphia (11/9), at Carolina (11/11) vs. New Jersey (11/12), vs. NYR (11/15)
Pittsburgh Penguins
This is as friendly of a reminder as I can give that the Pittsburgh Penguins simply aren’t worth investing your time and money in to right now. They’re a terrific 5-0-1 at home this season, but have been all over the map in terms of consistency, and are travelling this weekend. Their -1.1 goal differential is one of the biggest shockers of the 2017-18 NHL season so far. Until they show some measure of stability, you can’t trust them.
Next Games: at Washington (11/10), at Nashville (11/11), vs. Buffalo