NHL Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 11th, 2017

NHL Knowledge

Rangers won four of last five games wth Edmonton; over is 3-1 in last four. Oilers lost three of last five visits to Manhattan. Edmonton won three of last four games, winning last two in OT; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Four of Oilers’ last five road games went to OT. Rangers won their last five games overall, their last four at home. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.

Ottawa beat Colorado 4-3 in OT Friday, their 4th win in last five series games. Over is 9-2 in last 11 series games. Senators lost three of their last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six games. Avalanche lost its last two games, allowing 10 goals, after winning four of previous five games; their last eight games went over the total. This game is in Stockholm, Sweden.

Columbus won six of last eight games with Detroit; Blue Jackets are 4-1 in their last five visits to the Motor City. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games. Columbus lost its last four games, scoring nine goals; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Jackets lost three of last four road games. Red Wings won four of last six games; they’re 2-3 at home. Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Carolina won three of last four games with Chicago; home side won seven of last ten series games. Blackhawks are 2-3 in their last five visits to Raleigh. Chicago lost seven of last ten games, four of last six on road. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Hurricanes lost six of last eight games, three of last four at home. Over is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Florida won its last five games with New Jersey; they’re 2-3 in last five visits to the Garden State. Over is 5-3-2 in last ten series games. Panthers lost five of their last six games; over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Florida is 2-5 on the road this season. Devils lost their last four games, giving up 17 goals; over is 6-4 in their last ten games. New Jersey is 2-3 in its last five home games.

Montreal won five of last seven games with Buffalo; under is 2-1-2 in last five series games. Sabres split their last four visits to Montreal. Buffalo lost four of its last six games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Sabres split their last six road games. Canadiens won five of their last seven games, last three of which stayed under. Montreal won three of its last five home games.

Toronto beat Boston 3-2 in OT Friday, their 5th straight win over the Bruins. Maple Leafs won their last three visits to Beantown. Toronto won its last three games overall but lost four of last five road tilts; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Boston lost five of its last seven games; under is 5-1 in their last six home games. Bruins are 4-3 in their last seven home games.

Flyers won their last five games with Minnesota; over is 4-3-3 in last ten series games. Wild lost four of last five games in this building. Minnesota lost three of last four games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven. Wild split their last four road games. Philly lost five of last eight games overall, three of last four at home. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

St Louis won seven of last ten games with the Islanders; under is 4-1 in last five series games. Islanders lost four of last five games in this building. New York lost three of last four games overall, four of last six on road. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Blues won seven of last eight games overall, five of last six at home; under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Penguins won last three games with Nashville; home side won nine of last ten series games. Pittsburgh lost three of last four visits to Music City. Under is 3-1 in last four series games. Penguins lost four of last five games; under is 7-2 in their last nine— Pitt lost six of its last seven road games. Predators won their last three games, all on road- they lost last two home games. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Jets won five of last seven games with Arizona; they lost three of last four visits to Phoenix. Four of last five series games went over. Winnipeg won four of its last six games; three of their last four went over the total. Jets are 2-3 in their last five road games. Arizona is 2-16 this season, 1-6 at home. Last four Coyote games stayed under the total.

Sharks won their last five games with Vancouver; road team won eight of last ten series games. Vancouver split its last four visits to the Shark Tank. Canucks lost four of last six games overall, won four of last five on road. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. San Jose won four of its last five games, both overall and at home; six of its last seven games stayed under.

Armadillosports.com

NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com

MORNING LINE REPORT

The old saying “careful what you wish for” rang true last night. I was pretty happy when Carolina announced Cam Ward as their starter and then watched him go out and make several spectacular high-end saves to steal a win from Columbus.

I reluctantly added the Bruins as a play on Twitter during the morning skate as Brad Marchand was spotted at the Air Canada Center and Auston Matthews was nowhere to be found. Things were looking good until the Leafs tied the game in the final minute then won in overtime.

Our cash cow keeled over last night, too, as the Washington Capitals somewhat surprisingly easily controlled the Penguins. We’re still 8-3 in Caps games on the season but the Pens were my favorite play last night so that result was especially frustrating. At least Dallas and Vegas came through as easy winners in the late games to limit the damage at 2-3 for the evening.

Frustrating was a good word to describe the overall night and has been a running theme over this past week. Frustrating because we’re still dominating the closing line as we beat the close in all five games again yesterday and by a whopping 14 cent average. November has been a struggle after an amazing October and all you can say is variance is a b*tch. We’ve beat the close on 27 of 33 games in November (81.8%). Since October 19th we’re 52-13 against the close (80%) with an average CLV (closing line value) of 2.35%.

I should note that’s also using Pinnacle closing lines which are the benchmark in the industry. Considering all of our betting lines are from BetOnline and we’re grading against Pinnacle close, those numbers should look even more impressive.
We have a big 12-game card ahead today and after remembering our veterans this morning we’ll get started with a couple of early afternoon games as Colorado and Ottawa wrap up part two of their series in Sweden and the Oilers visit a suddenly red-hot Rangers at Madison Square Garden. With so many teams on the second half of a back-to-back we only have six of the 12 betting lines open right now. We have some goaltenders confirmed but we can make pretty good guesses on most of the others so we can at least be as prepared as possible for when these lines open later this morning so stay tuned for some Twitter additions.

EDMONTON OILERS @ NEW YORK RANGERS

Projected Goaltenders
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (confirmed)
NY Rangers – Henrik Lundqvist (expected)

Injury Report
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Slepyshev (out), Caggiula (out)
NY Rangers – no significant injuries

If the Edmonton Oilers could play 3-on-3 for 60 minutes there would likely not be a team in the league who could touch them with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the ice. The duo connected for the second time in as many games with another beautiful overtime goal to give the Oilers their first two game winning streak of the year.

Edmonton will have one lineup change today as Anton Slepyshev was placed on IR and Jesse Puljujarvi was called up. There’s been high hopes pinned on Puljujarvi in his limited time with the team but he wasn’t ready for the NHL last year. As a 19-year old this year, there’s still a question mark on what he can be for the Oilers but with Slepyshev out and Caggiula still hurt, he should at least be as good as anyone else they could put on the right side.

Cam Talbot will start the afternoon game today but McLellan said he hasn’t made a commitment to a starter for the back-to-back tomorrow in Washington.

The New York Rangers are 4-0 in November now which equals as many games they won in all of October after Wednesday’s 4-2 over Boston. Their current five game win streak has coincided with the pairing of Brady Skjei with Kevin Shattenkirk on the top pairing as they’ve helped stabilize a shaky defense in the early going. Shattenkirk is second among defensemen with 16 points and both are being leaned on for heavy minutes. As I’ve mentioned before, the Rangers have one of the easiest schedules in terms of travel and spread out games so Vigneault has been able to get away with putting his big guns on the ice more often.

This line opened at a reasonable number but has taken a move towards the Oilers overnight and now sits considerably short in my view. I’m not surprised as the market has been considerably higher on the Oilers than I have all season. We’ve been on the right side going 3-1 when fading the Oilers in recent games and we’ll take another crack today with the surging Rangers.

COLORADO AVALANCHE @ OTTAWA SENATORS (Stockholm, Sweden)

Projected Goaltenders
Colorado – Jonathan Bernier (confirmed)
Ottawa – Mike Condon (confirmed)

Injury Report
Colorado – Jost (out), Nemeth (out), Zadorov (out)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Ryan (out), Borowiecki (out)

Colorado and Ottawa put on a great opening act in Sweden yesterday with the Senators coming out on top with a 4-3 overtime win. The game was high-flying end-to-end action with tons of scoring chances and while there were a few soft goals, the goaltending of Varlamov and Anderson was really outstanding. They’ll give way to the backups today as the teams have already completed their morning skate and Bernier and Condon have both been confirmed.

Tyson Jost skated again and is close to a return for the Avs but won’t suit up today. Only one lineup change with Andrei Mironov drawing in for Nikita Zadorov on defense which is not an upgrade in my opinion.

Matt Duchene was a little tight in his debut yesterday which is understandable and there was no one happier when Mark Stone fired home the OT winner as he was first off the bench to start the celebration. There was a funny play the shift before the winner was scored when the Sens had a 2-on-1 with Duchene on one side and Avs defenseman Erik Johnson clearly smothered Duchene like there was no way they were letting him get the winner against them. Duchene didn’t find the scoresheet yesterday but he’s going to be a really good fit for the Sens.

This is the first of many games without a line yet for today but it should be slightly lower than yesterday’s with the only changes being the goaltenders. I like Ottawa to get the win again today but I’m expecting the value to be on Colorado.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS @ DETROIT RED WINGS

Projected Goaltenders
Columbus – Joonas Korpisalo (possible)
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (likely)

Injury Report
Columbus – Calvert (out)
Detroit – DeKeyser (out)

The Columbus Blue Jackets lost their fourth straight game last night dropping a 3-1 effort to visiting Carolina. The game was tied 1-1 in the third period and the Jackets looked pretty good I thought. Cam Ward made some incredible stops including a point blank wicked glove save on Panarin from the slot and a pretty sweet stop on a Cam Atkinson breakaway to keep the game tied in the third with a heck of a side-to-side pad save.

With the team getting desperate for a win it wouldn’t surprise me to see Tortorella go right back to Bobrovsky tonight in the back-to-back as he was sharp last night but Joonas Korpisalo is possible.

Detroit had a long trip back from Calgary after Thursday’s 6-3 loss and will open a five game homestand tonight. I made my number with Korpisalo starting and have Detroit as a favorite which didn’t look right to me. I expect this to open lower which means we would have value on the Wings tonight which I’m not crazy about. Columbus has burned me a couple time recently so I’m feeling a bit gun shy firing on their games at all right now but we’ll see where this one opens this morning.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ CAROLINA HURRICANES

Projected Goaltenders
Chicago – Anton Forsberg (confirmed)
Carolina – Scott Darling (confirmed)

Injury Report
Chicago – Hossa (out)
Carolina – Stempniak (out)

Since the Chicago Blackhawks opened the season scoring 15 goals in their first two games they’ve gone 5-7-2 and scored just 29 goals over those 14 games. Putting the puck in the net continued to be an issue on Thursday with a 3-1 loss at Philadelphia.

Quenneville started the game by reuniting Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews on the top line with Patrick Sharp and as I suggested, it did not work out well as the Couturier-Giroux-Voracek line absolutely dominated the Hawks trio. It didn’t take long for Quenneville to push the panic button in full force as Brandon Saad was moved to the top unit in place of Sharp but when even that didn’t work the Hawks were left with no answers.

Are the Blackhawks suddenly a really bad team? Probably not. Chalk it up more as an unlucky team as they’re still getting a ton of chances every game it’s just that the puck isn’t finding the back of the net. Chicago has six straight games with 35+ shots so more of those shots are going to eventual find a way in, that’s just how it works in the high variance NHL.

The Carolina Hurricanes got a big performance from Cam Ward last night in a 3-1 victory at Columbus and have now won two straight. Scott Darling will get the start tonight against his former team and you can bet this one will be a bit more important for him.

The Canes welcomed back Brett Pesce last night and he picked up right where he left off with shutdown partner Jaccob Slavin. If the Hawks decide to stack their top line again tonight it could be a long night for them as Pesce and Slavin are likely to win that battle.

Lee Stempniak suited up for Charlotte last night in the AHL for a conditioning assignment but only lasted two shifts before exiting and not returning. It looks like maybe he might have had a setback so his season debut remains on hold.
This line is too short even with the early line move this morning so we’ll jump on Carolina.

FLORIDA PANTHERS @ NEW JERSEY DEVILS

Projected Goaltenders
Florida – James Reimer (likely)
New Jersey – Cory Schneider/Keith Kinkaid (unknown)

Injury Report
Florida – no significant injuries
New Jersey – Zajac (out), Johansson (out)

The Florida Panthers snapped a five game losing streak with a three goal third period last night en route to a 4-1 victory at Buffalo. The Panthers played their finest defensive game of the year which is a positive improvement, even if it was just against the lowly Sabres. The top line of Barkov-Huberdeau-Dadonov were able to find the scoresheet a couple of times after being shut down for the previous three games. Roberto Luongo moved into fourth all-time on the NHL wins list but James Reimer will likely get the start tonight on the back-to-back.

The New Jersey Devils have dropped four straight games after a 3-2 overtime loss to Edmonton on Thursday in a game they probably deserved to win. The Devils have nine wins at the 15-game mark which is the same spot they were at last year before the wheels began to fall off. With a similar fate staring them in the face after another hot start, tonight’s game will take on a more significant importance.

New Jersey will hit the road for four games starting tomorrow in Chicago and since the team didn’t practice on Friday it’s unknown whether Schneider or Kinkaid will get the start tonight.

I’m really torn on this one as I really liked the Devils to get the win here but the numbers show a good bit of value on Florida. I think we have to take a shot on the Panthers but I’ll be kicking and screaming the whole way towards hitting that submit button. Florida is good down to +106.

BUFFALO SABRES @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

Projected Goaltenders
Buffalo – Chad Johnson (likely)
Montreal – Charlie Lindgren (confirmed)

Injury Report
Buffalo – Josefson (out), Bogosian (out), Ristolainen (out), Pouliot (questionable)
Montreal – Hemsky (out), Schlemko (out), Drouin (

Buffalo dropped a 4-1 decision at home to Florida last night but the game was much closer than that final score indicates. The game was 1-1 in the third when Sasha Barkov scored the go-ahead and eventual winner on a screen shot that Robin Lehner never even saw. The Cats pumped home a couple of empty netters to seal the deal late.

Nathan Beaulieu returned to the lineup and the defense instantly looked better. He paired with Antipin and that’s a pretty nice looking pair. Justin Falk is doing a nice job on the top pair with Scandella while Ristolainen is out. And the third pair looked better with McCabe and Fedun if for no other reason that Josh Gorges wasn’t there. Gorges is ready is go again but was scratched. He beings a veteran presence to the lineup but I can’t honestly say he makes the lineup any better.

Montreal’s recent offensive spike went dry on Thursday evening with a 3-0 loss to Minnesota as Jonathan Drouin and Shea Weber were both out of action. The Canadiens found it difficult to move the puck without Weber on the backend. Both Drouin and Weber practiced yesterday but are questionable for tonight. Julien said a decision will be made this morning so this is another thing we’ll wait on. With Al Montoya out with an injury and Carey Price not ready to return, Charlie Lindgren will get his fourth consecutive start in net.

If Drouin and Weber are both in, I’ll likely look to get involved with the Habs tonight. Otherwise, the under is probably a good bet again.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ BOSTON BRUINS

Projected Goaltenders
Toronto – Curtis McElhinney (confirmed)
Boston – Tuukka Rask (probable)

Injury Report
Toronto – Matthews (out)
Boston – Krejci (out), Backes (out), Spooner (out), McQuaid (out), Marchand (probable)

The Bruins broke a 1-1 tie with just over five minutes remaining last night but the Leafs tied it in the final minute before Patrick Marleau’s overtime winner.

Curtis McElhinney is confirmed to start for the Leafs tonight and Tuukka Rask is expected to go for the Bruins. Auston Matthews has already been ruled out with the Leafs having the next four days off after this for him to recover. We should probably be on Brad Marchand watch again even though he played last night. It’s a back-to-back coming off an injury so we’ll just want to make sure he’s okay this morning.

We’ll wait for a line on this one and decide what to do.

MINNESOTA WILD @ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Projected Goaltenders
Minnesota – Alex Stalock (possible)
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott (confirmed)

Injury Report
Minnesota – Parise (out), Coyle (out)
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out), Patrick (out)

The Minnesota Wild finally took advantage of a team missing their superstar with a 3-0 shutout in Montreal on Thursday. The Canadiens were minus both Jonathan Drouin and Shea Weber and still found themselves in a scoreless draw to begin the third period before a Jason Zucker natural hat trick sealed the deal. Zucker had both of the Wild’s goals in their previous game at Toronto, as well.

Minnesota isn’t expected to get such a break today as the Flyers superstars should be all accounted and present. Alex Stalock was scheduled to start Thursday’s game but was called away for the birth of his daughter but has rejoined them now in Philadelphia for the final game of their four game trip. Minnesota didn’t practice on Friday and Boudreau didn’t name a starter yet but multiple outlets seem to think he’s expected to start today. Dubnyk is coming off a shutout though and after struggling for a good bit I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the call again so we’ll have to wait and see.

The Philadelphia Flyers wrap up a three game homestand tonight after Thursday’s 3-1 win over Chicago. This is the first of a home-and-home with the Wild as they’ll travel to Minnesota for a rematch on Tuesday.

Brian Elliott was excellent in net on Thursday making 38 saves and will get the call again today.

This was penciled in as a play for us this morning but a recent line move has brought the line up to where it should be now. We’ll see if it drops back down but looks like we’ll sit out for now.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES

Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Thomas Greiss (likely)
St. Louis – Jake Allen (expected)

Injury Report
NY Islanders – Kulemin (out), Beauvillier (questionable)
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)

Doug Weight absolutely tore a strip off his team after last night’s embarrassing effort in a 5-0 loss at Dallas. The Isles only managed 14 total shots on net and Weight called out everyone after saying it would be nice to have some heart, some work ethic and some consistency to following a game plan.

Anthony Beauvillier left the game in the third period after blocking not one but two blistering slapshots within seconds on a penalty kill which left him in a heap and needed to be helped off. He was walking it off in the locker room later but I listed him as questionable just in case.

St. Louis survived a scare from the league-worst Coyotes with Thursday’s 3-2 shootout win. The Blues are getting stronger and stronger as the early part of the season wears on. A big issue for them early on was holding third period leads but they’ve been much better lately only allowing five third period goals over the last nine goals while scoring 13 themselves.

This line was just above my range this morning but a recent move on the Isles has dropped it significantly. It’s still in the range for no play right now but we’ll keep an eye on it and see if anything develops.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS

Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Tristan Jarry (possible)
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (likely)

Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Hunwick (questionable)
Nashville – Ellis (out), Bonino (out), Turris (in)

The Pittsburgh Penguins couldn’t contain the Capitals powerplay last night as they fell 4-1 and will try to get their first win on a back-to-back this year after losing all five previous attempts.

Nashville won the final three games of their four game road trip after Tuesday’s 3-1 win at Columbus. Kyle Turris will make his Nashville debut tonight and now gives the Predators a solid 1-2 punch down the middle. It was the one main weakness on this team and the Preds have to be considered a serious contender once again for the Stanley Cup.

I’d be inclined to back Nashville or nothing tonight but I’m not expecting any value when this line opens.

WINNIPEG JETS @ ARIZONA COYOTES

Projected Goaltenders
Winnipeg – Steve Mason (likely)
Arizona – Antti Raanta (expected)

Injury Report
Winnipeg – Perreault (out)
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Hjalmarsson (out), Goligoski (questionable)

Connor Hellebuyck lost for the first time in regulation this season falling to 8-1-2 as the Vegas hangover was evident in a 5-2 loss last night. The Jets were the best first period team this year but after three full days off enjoying Las Vegas, the Jets were noticeably flat falling behind 2-0 early.

Hellebuyck made 17 saves on 22 shots before giving way to Steve Mason to begin the third. It was a little odd with the Jets already down 5-2 at the time and having to play in Arizona tonight. Did Maurice pull Hellebuyck so he could come back to him tonight or did he just want to give Mason a bit of a warmup before tonight seeing how he hasn’t appeared in a game in over two weeks? I’m going to go with the latter and say Mason will start tonight but we’ll have to wait and see.

Arizona managed to secure their second point of a tough three game road trip that ended with a 3-2 shootout loss at St. Louis on Thursday. The Coyotes played another strong game and were the better team for stretches but ultimately ended up with another heartbreaking defeat although there were a lot of positives to take from the effort.

Arizona may have finally got on the board win a couple of wins this year but they’ve still yet to win a game in regulation. If they fail to win tonight’s game in regulation, the Coyotes will tie the NHL record of 19 games to begin a season set by the 1999 Calgary Flames.

Antti Raanta has stabilized the goaltending since returning from injury and that’s been the biggest uptick in why the team has been able to be more competitive in games. Tonight will be the final game in a difficult block of games for Arizona where they played 11 games in 19 days. After this the schedule will ease up somewhat and the Coyotes are going to be a strong play-on team in the coming weeks but for tonight this line appears pretty short on the Jets.

Alex Goligoski is questionable but even if he plays we have enough value on Winnipeg here so we’ll lock them in as a play.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS @ SAN JOSE SHARKS

Projected Goaltenders
Vancouver – Anders Nilsson (possible)
San Jose – Aaron Dell (possible)

Injury Report
Vancouver – Eriksson (out), Stecher (out), Tanev (out)
San Jose – Martin (out)

The Vancouver Canucks continue their trip through California after Thursday’s 4-1 loss at Anaheim. The Canucks welcomed one defenseman back in Alex Edler just to see another hit the injury list. Chris Tanev will be out 2-3 weeks and will be a big underrated loss on the blueline as someone else will have to pick up the slack as a shutdown defender.

Anders Nilsson is a new father and has rejoined the team. He was on the ice for practice yesterday and could start tonight.

San Jose was throttled 5-1 by Tampa Bay on Wednesday as they continue a lengthy homestand. Not much went right in that one and it can probably just be chalked up as a bad game and thrown in the trash. The Sharks are 3-1-0 on this homestand now and should be able to be in a good spot to grab another win tonight.

Another one we’ll wait and see where it opens but I’ll be looking for value on the Sharks.