NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, October 21st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Rangers won four of last five games with Nashville; under is 6-2-2 in last ten series games. Predators are 1-4 in last five visits to Manhattan. Nashville won four of its last five games; they are 1-3 on road- their last four games stayed under total. Rangers lost their last five games, last two in SO/OT; under is 4-2 in their last six games. New York is 1-5 at home.
Edmonton won four of its last five games with Philly, but they’re 1-4 in last five games in this building. Over is 6-2 in last eight series games. Oilers last four of their last five games; they’re 1-1 on road. Over is 3-1 in their last four games. Flyers split their first six games; they’re 2-1 at home. Three of their last four games went over total.
Kings-Blue Jackets split their last four meetings, all of which ended 3-2 (under 2-0-2); LA split their last four visits to Ohio. Kings won five of their last six games; they won at San Jose in their only road game this season. Over is 3-1 in their last four games. Columbus won four of its last five games (under 4-3); they’re 2-1 at home this season.
Sharks-Islanders split their last ten meetings; San Jose won three of last five visits here- under is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Sharks won three of last four games after winning their road opener in New Jersey Friday- under is 3-1 in their last four games. New York is 2-3 in its last five games (under 4-1); they split their first two home games this season.
Bruins won their last seven games with Buffalo; four of last five series games stayed under. Sabres were outscored 9-2 in losing their last three visits to Benton. Buffalo is 1-7 to start the season, 0-3 at home; three of their last four games went over. Boston split its first six games (2-1 at home); three of their last four games went over.
Ottawa won seven of last eight games with Toronto; over is 3-1 in last four series games. Leafs lost three of last four games in this building. Toronto won its last three games and six of first seven- over is 6-1 in those games- they’re 3-0 on road. Senators are 0-4 at home, 3-0 on road; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Ottawa lost 3-0/5-4ot in its last two games.
Penguins won five of last six games with Tampa Bay; they’re 3-2 in last five games in Bay Area. Over is 8-1 in last nine series games. Pittsburgh won five of its last six games, with last four going over total- they’re 3-2 on road after winning in Miami Friday. Lightning won five of their last six games; they’re 4-0 at home. Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Washington is 6-4 in its last ten games with Florida; over is 3-1 in last four series games. Panthers are 2-3 in last five visits here. Florida lost its last three games, after losing to Penguins Friday; they’re 0-3 on road. Last six Florida games went over total. Washington lost four of last six games after winning in OT in Detroit Friday- over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Dallas Stars won their last five games with Carolina; over is 4-2 in last six series games. Hurricanes lost four of last five visits to Texas. Carolina is 3-2 to start season- under is 3-1 in their last four games. Hurricanes are 2-1 on road. Stars won their last three games; under is 3-1 in last four games. Dallas won its last three home games.
Blackhawks won their last seven games with Arizona; five of last six series games went over. Chicago won its last four visits to the desert- they’re 1-3 in last four games- over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Hawks are 1-2 on the road. Coyotes are 0-7 this season, with four of those games at home. Four of their last five games went over the total.
Calgary won its last four games with Minnesota; over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Wild lost 3-2so/5-1 in last two games in Saddledome. Minnesota lost five of last six games after losing in Winnipeg Friday; all five of their games went over. Wild are 1-3 on the road. Flames are 4-2 in last six games but they lost last two home games. Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
St Louis won six of its first eight games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Blues are 4-2 on the road. Las Vegas is 5-1 to start its franchise history; they’re 3-1 at home (over 3-1).
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
MORNING LINE REPORT
Yesterday was a bit of a strange day. I was a little later than normal submitting my morning article and didn’t get it sent out until 9:00am EST at which time the line on the Buffalo Sabres was -148 and I had it listed as a play. Our great host here at BangTheBook, Adam Burke, is a sharp dude and was on the ball as usual and had the article up on the site here within just 5-10 minutes. Unfortunately, during that small window of a few minutes there was a sharp line move on Buffalo pushing the line up to -156 and then a couple of minutes later to -159 which then fell into my line range of -157/-163, erasing all value on our edge. I immediately tweeted out my advice was to not play it at the current number. Hopefully you took that advice to heart and laid off the Sabres as they ended up laying another egg, losing 4-2 to Vancouver.
Most casual bettors would say, “you like Buffalo to win so what does it matter what odds I bet it at?”
I’m going to attempt to briefly explain this in hopes you can understand why I would say not to bet Buffalo at the higher number.
When I created my line for Buffalo I had a range of -157/-163, meaning I had the Sabres winning last night between 61.1-62.0%.
When I made the play at -148, the win expectancy for Buffalo at that number would be 59.7% (which can be calculated by [odds/(odds+100)*100] or [148/(148+100)*100]. That’s the percentage of the time Buffalo needs to win in order to break even (so if you play 100 games at those odds, you need to win about 60 times to break even).
I thought Buffalo should win that game 61.1-62% which gave me an edge, or advantage, of 1.4-2.3% which may not seem like a lot but trust me it really is.
If you bet Buffalo at -159 then all of a sudden you need to win that game 61.4% to break even [159/(159+100)*100] which was inside my range of how often I expected Buffalo to win (61.1-62%). That means there’s no edge and no matter how many times I make that bet, in the long run I’m going to end up breaking about even.
That’s why when you ask a professional bettor who they think will win this game or that game, their response often is, “What’s the line?” or “What’s the odds?”. It’s not as simple as “Florida” or “Oakland”. Picking winners is important, but the math behind it is what mostly separates a winning player (players who bet with a positive edge) from a losing one (players betting with a negative edge).
(Remember I’ve said before how I’m a horrible teacher so if this didn’t make sense, I apologize. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter to discuss further if you like, or just to yell at me for being a bad teacher).
So while I lost on Buffalo last night, hopefully you guys avoided the play as I recommended. A similar thing happened with San Jose yesterday who I tweeted out as a play. The Sharks opened at a terrible number of just -103 and it was bet up instantly. About ten minutes later I tweeted it out as a play at -120. Less than two minutes later another sharp move took it up to -129 and erased the value (my line range was -131/-137). Lines move quickly in the morning (especially for games where there was no overnight line) and they are moving earlier than they did last year so sometimes it’s tricky to send out a play and have everyone get the same number.
On a happier note, Mike Sullivan announced Matt Murray as the starter when he met with the media and I immediately tweeted out Pittsburgh as a play which hopefully everyone got in on. The Pens erased an earlier 2-0 hole and scored a late powerplay goal to get the win.
We have twelve games on another busy Saturday card but only seven lines currently open. Today’s report is going to be more condensed as I’ll hit more on the games where we have an edge and discuss less about the games we likely won’t be betting. Projected goaltenders and the injury report will remain for all games. There’s two afternoon games today and we’re playing both, so make sure to get your bets in early!
NASHVILLE PREDATORS @ NEW YORK RANGERS
Projected Goaltenders
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (likely)
New York – Henrik Lundqvist (confirmed)
Injury Report
Nashville – Ellis (out), Bonino (out)
New York – no significant injuries
The Nashville Predators are heating up after a slow start and now have points in five straight games while Pekka Rinne is on one of his hot streaks allowing just four goals over the last four games. With the Rangers reeling in the opposite direction losing five straight and their only win this season coming over last place Montreal, it would seem like this should be easy pickings for the Preds.
Defenseman Yannick Weber was activated off the IR yesterday and is expected to return tonight but Nick Bonino was placed on IR and may be out for a while.
This is a big game for the Rangers and the afternoon start might help them out here. Changing up the routine a bit and knowing they’ll have more eyeballs on them with just two early games, I would expect a desperate team who should give us their best performance of the season.
Vigneault shortened his bench in Thursday night’s shootout loss to the Islanders and seemed to find some new chemistry throughout his lines. Hopefully this can carry over into today’s game because this line is short and we’re playing New York.
EDMONTON OILERS @ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Projected Goaltenders
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (probable)
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott (confirmed)
Injury Report
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Draisaitl (out), Caggiula (out)
Philadelphia – Weal (questionable), Leier (questionable), Simmonds (probable)
The Edmonton Oilers received a much needed victory Thursday night in Chicago but a lot of this team’s issues are maybe starting to become apparent. The Oilers were an extremely speedy team last year and that combined with their aggressive effort put a lot of teams on their heels and helped overcome their lack of overall talent outside the big top line. This year’s team doesn’t look as fast and they certainly don’t seem to be playing with that sense of urgency so often displayed last season. Maybe with all the preseason media hype projecting them as one of the top favorites for the Stanley Cup some early complacency set in and now they’re realizing this is the NHL and nothing ever comes easy. You have to go out there and outwork your opponents every night and if you don’t, you’ll going to end up with a 2-4-0 start and sit second to last in the Western Conference. The Oilers put forth a much better effort in Chicago so maybe getting out on this road trip is the best thing that could have happened for them right now.
The Philadelphia Flyers may be this year’s surprise version of last year’s Oilers. The Flyers are off to a 4-3-0 start thanks to a new brand of team speed and a tenacious all-out attack which has them sitting at a goals differential of +9, good for third in the league. This team will really come at you and if the Oilers aren’t prepared today things could get ugly.
Wayne Simmonds, Jordan Weal and Taylor Leier all missed Friday’s practice for a maintenance day. Simmonds returned to action last game but got hit in the mouth late in the second period and had to exit for a bit before returning. He’s expected to be good to go for today. Weal missed last game and is a game time decision today as is Leier.
We have a little bit of value on the Flyers today depending on your sportsbook. Some are sitting at -114/-115 with others at -118/-120. BetOnline has them listed at -115 currently so I’m locking this is as a play.
LOS ANGELES KINGS @ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (probable)
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky (probable)
Injury Report
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out)
Columbus – Carlsson (out), Jenner (likely)
The Los Angeles Kings are off to a franchise record start at 5-0-1 but now leave the state of California for the first time this season beginning a six game, ten night road trip out East. They’ll be doing so without the services of Jeff Carter as his leg was badly cut by a skate in Wednesday’s game. He’ll be out six-to-eight weeks after undergoing surgery and his absence will now test the Kings depth down the middle.
Nick Shore is expected to move up the lineup into Carter’s second line role and Brooks Laich signed a one-year deal and may see playing time.
Coach Stevens hasn’t been happy with the team’s defense despite only allowing a league low ten goals through the first six games. He’s concerned they’ve been giving up way too many scoring chances which have been masked by the outstanding play of Jonathan Quick. The Kings are due for some regression in a pretty big way and this road trip seems like things might finally come down to earth for them.
Columbus continues a four game homestand and will be anxious to get back on the ice after being shutout 2-0 by Tampa Bay in a game the Jackets completely dominated. Vasilevskiy was the difference as Columbus outshot the Bolts 33-8 over the final 40 minutes.
The Blue Jackets could have some extra firepower back in the lineup tonight as Boone Jenner was activated off the IR and fully practiced yesterday. He said he expects to make his season debut tonight but it’s not officially confirmed.
I’m going off the grid with this one. My line doesn’t show any value in the current number but this is a really good spot for the Jackets and a really tough one for the Kings. If you want to only strictly play games where there’s a decided edge, that’s fine, feel free to sit this one out. When you don’t have a perceived edge then you’re just gambling, not investing. Tonight, I’m okay with taking a gamble on Columbus.
SAN JOSE SHARKS @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Projected Goaltenders
San Jose – Aaron Dell (confirmed)
New York – Thomas Greiss (confirmed)
Injury Report
San Jose – Martin (out)
New York – no significant injuries
Martin Jones is on a heater for the Sharks after a strong performance against Montreal earlier this week then a brilliant performance last night in shutting out the Islanders. He’ll take a seat tonight, however, as DeBoer confirmed post-game last night that Aaron Dell will get the nod in this one.
We’ll see where this line opens this morning but I don’t have a real strong opinion either way here. I think I’d prefer the Sharks but we’ll let the numbers do the talking with this one and play either side if there’s a clear edge.
BUFFALO SABRES @ BOSTON BRUINS
Projected Goaltenders
Buffalo – Robin Lehner (probable)
Boston – Anton Khudobin (probable)
Injury Report
Buffalo – Bogosian (out), Josefson (out), Girgensons (out), Beaulieu (questionable)
Boston – Spooner (out), McQuaid (out), Bergeron (probable), Krejci(probable), Miller (probable)
Buffalo makes the short trek to Beantown after a flat out embarrassing performance Friday night in a 4-2 home loss to Vancouver where the final score doesn’t justify how bad the Sabres really played. Buffalo was badly outshot and outworked while giving up their sixth shorthanded goal of the season. The Sabres have now been outscored 6-5 ON THEIR POWERPLAY. That’s unreal!
The Sabres might be shorthanded in terms of personnel tonight, as well, as defenseman Nathan Beaulieu was not seen after the second period. He suffered an upper-body injury and is day-to-day and questionable for tonight. Robin Lehner was healthy enough to backup last night so I would expect they would go back to him as the starter tonight.
The Boston Bruins continue a four game homestand after a six goal outburst against Vancouver last game that saw the return of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins looked like a different team with their leader back and he made an immediate impact picking up a goal and three assists.
Bergeron, David Krejci and Kevan Miller all missed practice Friday but Cassidy said all three are expected to play tonight. Krejci seems like the only one whose status may change as he was dealing with back spasms and that can always be tricky and change overnight.
Boston did lose defenseman Adam McQuaid though to a broken right fibula and is expected to miss about eight weeks. Paul Postma will slot into the lineup on the third pair for him.
The Bruins have owned the Sabres over the last few seasons, especially on home ice. This is a pretty juicy line at -180 and I don’t currently see an edge unless Bergeron ends up not playing.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ OTTAWA SENATORS
Projected Goaltenders
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (confirmed)
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)
Injury Report
Toronto – no significant injuries
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Borowiecki (out), Z. Smith (out)
The Battle of Ontario now has a Stanley Cup favorite and it’s not the team that made it to the Eastern Conference Final last season. The Toronto Maple Leafs are the new Stanley Cup favorite at a couple of major sportsbooks. This should be a fun game with early bragging rights on the line as they won’t meet again until January.
The Senators are 0-4 on home ice now and 0-2 since Erik Karlsson returned so I’m tempted to lean towards the home side tonight but this line is currently within my number and I don’t have much interest here other than an entertaining watch. If this number on the Leafs climbs up into the -120s then I’ll look at playing Ottawa.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray/Antti Niemi (unknown)
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely)
Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Hunwick (out)
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries
Matt Murray was the surprise starter last night in a spot many expected Niemi to get the call. I wonder if Sullivan will be hesitant to start Niemi here tonight against a strong Tampa team and we’ll see Murray again. With no line available and until the Pens confirm a starter, there’s not much to look at here. I’ll update on Twitter if there ends up being an edge on this one.
FLORIDA PANTHERS @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Projected Goaltenders
Florida – James Reimer (probable)
Washington – Philipp Grubauer (confirmed)
Injury Report
Florida – no significant injuries
Washington – Niskanen (out)
Roberto Luongo left last night’s game against Pittsburgh in the third period with a hand injury. James Reimer took over and let in the winning goal with about three minutes left to take a tough loss on the stat sheet. Reimer was expected to get the call tonight on the back-to-back anyway so it doesn’t change much.
Washington earned a 4-3 overtime win in Detroit last night thanks to Alex Ovechkin’s NHL-leading 10th goal of the season. The lineup changes by Trotz seemed to pay off as Burakovsky finally scored a goal. Phillip Grubauer will start in net tonight.
No line here yet but we’ll likely look at the Panthers on nothing if this one opens too high.
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ DALLAS STARS
Projected Goaltenders
Carolina – Scott Darling (likely)
Dallas – Ben Bishop (likely)
Injury Report
Carolina – Stempniak (out)
Dallas – no significant injuries
This might be the best game of the evening and a fun one to watch but it doesn’t look like any edge here. Scott Darling has only given up five goals over his last three starts after a likely nervous opener where he gave up four to Minnesota.
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ ARIZONA COYOTES
Projected Goaltenders
Chicago – Corey Crawford (probable)
Arizona – Louis Domingue/Adin Hill (unknown)
Injury Report
Chicago – Hossa (out)
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Perlini (out)
The Chicago Blackhawks have lost three of four and are suddenly reeling a bit as they take on the still winless Coyotes. They’re losing a lot of one-on-one battles and their puck possession is one of the worst in the league. They’ve also allowed the most shots per game in the NHL.
I thought Arizona had their best chance for their first win the other night against Dallas and while they played one of their better games it still wasn’t enough. Tocchet changed up the practice routine yesterday and the players seem to really be responding well to his teachings. The Hawks strong start is a little bit deceiving so maybe this is finally the game Arizona gets on the board.
We’ll wait to see where this line opens but I’ll be looking at Arizona or nothing tonight.
MINNESOTA WILD @ CALGARY FLAMES
Projected Goaltenders
Minnesota – Alex Stalock (likely)
Calgary – Mike Smith (probable)
Injury Report
Minnesota – Parise (out), Niederreiter (out), Coyle (out), Granlund (doubtful)
Calgary – no significant injuries
The Minnesota Wild looked a little flat last night coming off a five day layoff losing 4-3 at Winnipeg. Minnesota is still dealing with an ugly roster situation thanks to multiple injuries. They lost another forward last night when just called up forward Landon Ferraro aggravated an injury he had been dealing with in the minors and is questionable for tonight. Granlund was unavailable again and is doubtful to return tonight as Boudreau said they’d prefer to not rush him and look at bringing him back on their upcoming homestand.
The Calgary Flames have been winning despite a lot of noticeable problems and that’s purely thanks to the tremendous goaltending efforts of Mike Smith. The Flames are having trouble staying out of the penalty box and they’re turning the puck over at an alarming rate and that could be trouble against a pretty sound puck-moving team like the Wild, even if they are icing half of an AHL lineup.
We’ll see where this one opens, too, but I’m not really interested in getting involved here.
ST. LOUIS BLUES @ VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Projected Goaltenders
St. Louis – Jake Allen (likely)
Vegas – Malcolm Subban (probable)
Injury Report
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)
Vegas – Haula (out), Marchessault (doubtful)
The St. Louis Blues continue to find ways to win despite not often being the better team and it looks like we’re going to be going against them again tonight. Vegas continues to be underpriced and until oddsmakers make a correction we’re likely to keep firing on the Knights. There’s not a huge edge here but it’s enough to make a play.
Jonathan Marchessault returned to practice on Friday after missing the last two games and could play tonight. My line is with him not in the lineup so if he does get cleared it will create even more value on the home side. Erik Haula is expected to start skating again today but not play tonight. Marc-Andre Fleury is still out with a concussion so Malcolm Subban is expected to start again tonight.