NHL Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 28th, 2017

NHL Knowledge

San Jose won its last two games with Buffalo, after going 1-7 in previous eight meetings; Sharks lost three of last four visits to western NY. Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games. San Jose is 4-3 in its last seven games (under 5-2); they split four road games. Sabres split their last six games, losing two of last three at home. Four of their last five games went over the total.

Lightning won seven of last nine games with Anaheim; Ducks lost their last five visits to Tampa Bay. Under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. Anaheim split its last six games, with last three going over the total- they lost two of their three road games. Tampa Bay won four in row, eight of last nine games; they’re 5-0 at home (over 3-2).

Bruins are 6-4 in last ten games with Los Angeles, 4-1 in last five series games played here. Under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Kings won eight of their first 10 games; their last three games stayed under the total- they’re 4-1 on the road. Bruins are 4-5 this month, 0-3 in the game coming off a win- they’re 3-2 at home. Over is 4-2 in Bruins’ last six games.

Devils won five of last six games with Arizona; last two series games went over. Coyotes lost four of last five games in this building. Arizona is 0-10 this month with one OT loss; they’re 0-5 on road. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. New Jersey won seven of last nine games; they are 3-2 at home. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Florida won three of last four games with Detroit; road team won four of last five series games. Red Wings split their last six games in this building. Over is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Detroit was outscored 21-11 in losing their last six games; they lost their last three road games. Under is 3-0 in their last six games. Florida lost four of last six games; they’re 3-1 at home; over is 8-1 in their last nine games.

Toronto won five of its last seven games with Philly; over is 4-1 in his last five games. Flyers lost three of last four visits to Toronto. Philly lost three of their last four games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Flyers also lost three of last four on road. Maple Leafs are 7-3 in their first ten games, 4-2 at home. Over is 8-2 in their first ten games.

Rangers won their last four games with Montreal; four of last five series games stayed under the total. New York split its last four games in this building. Rangers lost six of their last eight games; they’re 0-2 on road- four of their last five games went over. Canadiens lost eight of their last nine games; five of their last six games went over. Montreal is 1-3 at home.

Penguins won six of last nine games with Minnesota, but lost last two; they’re 3-2 in their last five visits to the Twin Cities. Over is 4-1 in last five series games. Pittsburgh won seven of its last nine games; they split their six road games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Wild is 3-5 this month, 0-3 in game following a win. Over is 6-1-1 in their games this season.

Islanders won five of last seven games with Nashville; over is 4-2 in last six series games. New York split its last four games in Music City. Islanders won three of their last four games; they’re 2-4 on the road- their last four games went over the total. Predators split their last six games; they’re 3-1 at home. Six of last seven Nashville games stayed under the total.

Home teams won eight of last ten Columbus-St Louis games; Blue Jackets lost four of their last five games in St Louis. Under is 3-1 in last four series games. Columbus won six of its last eight games, winning their last three road tilts. Four of their last six games went over the total. Blues won four of their last five games; they won three in row at home (over 3-0).

Blackhawks won six of their last eight games with Colorado; they won three of last four games in Denver. Last three series games went over the total. Chicago lost four of its last five games; they’re 2-3 on road (over 3-1-1). Avalanche lost four of its last five games, with last three going over the total. Colorado won three of its four home games.

Washington won three of its last four games with Edmonton; teams split last four series games played here. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Caps lost six of their last eight games; they split their six road games. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Oilers lost six of their last eight games; under is 3-1 in their last four. Edmonton lost three of last four home games.

Armadillosports.com

NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com

MORNING LINE REPORT

We only have seven of the twelve game lines widely available so the focus will be on the games we should have an edge in. There’s a few big injury concerns today, as well, so we’ll have to wait until morning skates for more info on a few games.

Unlike the last couple of Saturday’s where we had seven plays, the lines are a lot tighter this weekend and I only see a small edge in one game. I expect we’ll have a couple more plays once the other lines open. It’s been a great opening month and we’ve really been on a roll this past week so hopefully the good times continue.

SAN JOSE SHARKS @ BUFFALO SABRES

Projected Goaltenders
San Jose – Martin Jones (likely)
Buffalo – Robin Lehner (likely)

Injury Report
San Jose – Martin (out)
Buffalo – Bogosian (out), Beaulieu (questionable)

San Jose wraps up a five game road trip on the East Coast with a tough afternoon spot in Buffalo. They’ve alternated wins and losses through the first four games after Thursday’s 2-1 loss at Boston.

Joonas Donskoi has joined the top line switching places with Kevin Labanc and while that does stack the top-six for San Jose, the bottom-six is lacking quality depth. Donskoi is an underrated player and I like him paired with Thornton and Pavelski but the now third line of Boedker, Tierney and Labanc is probably going to get run over in this game.

The Buffalo Sabres are coming off Wednesday’s 5-1 lopsided loss at Columbus. The Sabres are still having a really difficult time adjusting to Housley’s new system. They’ve looked really good at times when they are able to follow the game plan but there’s still way too many instances where they lack the composure to follow through on things and it’s led to too many defensive miscues. Kyle Okposo mysteriously still doesn’t have a goal and it’s a big concern for one of their better offensive threats. They need him to get going to take some pressure off the Eichel line and they also need more offense from the defense. And by more I mean any as the defense are still without a goal this season.

It doesn’t look like we’ll have a play here this afternoon but the Sharks are likely looking forward to getting back home to get ready for a date with Toronto and Patrick Marleau’s homecoming, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they mailed this one in a bit so I would look at Buffalo or nothing here.

ANAHEIM DUCKS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Projected Goaltenders
Anaheim – John Gibson/Reto Berra (unknown)
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy (probable)

Injury Report
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Vatanen (out), Fowler (out), Bieksa (out)
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries

The Anaheim Ducks were on the wrong side of an 8-3 score Thursday night in Florida. They had a hard time protecting the puck as turnover after turnover left John Gibson hung out to dry all night. He gave up six goals on just 17 shots before giving way to Reto Berra in the third period.

Instead of putting the team through a grueling practice as punishment for their effort, Carlyle gave the team the day off on Friday as they continue this tough road trip of four games in six nights. They’ll play a back-to-back this weekend in Tampa then in Carolina so we don’t know if Gibson will start tonight or if Reto Berra will get a chance. Ryan Miller could finally be ready to dress as the backup and get his first start sometime next week.

Tampa Bay continued their impressive start to the season with Thursday’s 3-2 victory over Detroit. Nikita Kucherov scored his league leading 12th goal and Steven Stamkos extending his NHL points lead with his 21st overall. The two superstars have shown incredible chemistry together but they’ve also been getting a lot of help from the secondary scorers. Brayden Point and Vladislav Namestnikov are at a point per game clip with Killorn, Johnson and Palat also all contributing. Mikhail Sergachev continues to be a steal as he now has ten points in 11 games.

Vasilevskiy tied the franchise record with his eighth straight win and is now 9-1-0 with a 2.20 goals-against average and .936 save percentage.

Anaheim hasn’t had much success in Tampa Bay over the years or anywhere against them in general. The Bolts have won five straight at home and are 8-0-5 over the Ducks since 2006. I think this line is priced right so I won’t be jumping in with a play but it’s hard to not like Tampa Bay to continue their run tonight.

LOS ANGELES KINGS @ BOSTON BRUINS

Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (likely)
Boston – Tuukka Rask (likely)

Injury Report
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out), Clifford (out)
Boston – Krejci (out), Spooner (out), McQuaid (out)

The Los Angeles Kings continue their daunting six game road trip with stop number five in Boston tonight. The Kings continue to overachieve after Thursday’s 4-0 win at Montreal. The defense was slack at times but Jonathan Quick was brilliant yet again posting 40 saves for the shutout. The Kings have played well and taken advantage of some teams who are struggling but I’m not yet sold on them being to keep this up.

The Boston Bruins played a solid all-around game in Thursday’s 2-1 win over San Jose. Anton Khudobin started his third straight game with Tuukka Rask on the shelf and has done a great job filling in, improving his record to 3-0-1. Rask dressed as the backup on Thursday and is expected to return as the starter tonight.

The Bruins will be without David Krejci once again as he continues to deal with a back problem.

Los Angeles has had some trouble with the Bruins over recent years as Boston swept the season series last year and is 5-1 in LA’s last six visits. I don’t see any value in the current line but I would look at Boston or nothing here.

ARIZONA COYOTES @ NEW JERSEY DEVILS

Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Antti Raanta/Adin Hill/Louis Domingue (unknown)
New Jersey – Cory Schneider (likely)

Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out)
New Jersey – Zajac (out), Palmieri (questionable)

The Arizona Coyotes season of futility continued with Thursday’s 5-2 loss to the Rangers as they now sit at 0-9-1. The Coyotes had been playing a bit better recently but there wasn’t much positive to take away from their last effort. Arizona can tie the second longest losing streak to open a season with a loss tonight and are approaching the 1943-44 mark set by the New York Rangers of 15 games (0-14-1) to begin a season without a win.

Tocchet said goaltender Antti Raanta had a really good day on Friday and could start tonight. They’ll see how he is this morning and make a decision. Adin Hill has done his best to fill in but he’s over his head at this level right now so the return of Raanta will be an enormous boost for this club.

The New Jersey Devils showed a lot of character in last night’s 5-4 shootout win over Ottawa. The Devils hadn’t played in seven days and quickly fell behind 2-0 before finding their legs and scoring four unanswered before a late collapse allowed the Sens to score twice to tie the game in the final 75 seconds.

Cory Schneider has fully recovered from his lower-body injury and was removed from the IR but he missed last night’s game as his wife gave birth to their second child. Schneider is back with the team today and plans to skate this morning at which time the team will decide if he’s able to start. I think it’s more than likely we’ll see him in the crease tonight.

Kyle Palmieri missed Friday’s game with a lower-body injury and will be re-evaluated this morning. He’s listed as questionable for tonight but he hasn’t been able to practice so I don’t imagine he will be available.

I made my number with Raanta and Schneider starting so we’ll see what happens this morning when they get on the ice. Schneider will be pumped up after the birth of his child and the Coyotes would receive a huge boost if Raanta can return so this is a tricky game to pick. We’ll see where the number opens and go from there.

DETROIT RED WINGS @ FLORIDA PANTHERS

Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Petr Mrazek/Jimmy Howard (unknown)
Florida – James Reimer (probable)

Injury Report
Detroit – DeKeyser (doubtful)
Florida – no significant injuries

The Detroit Red Wings will finish up their three game road trip tonight after dropping their sixth straight game with a 3-2 loss at Tampa Bay on Thursday.

Gloom and doom have set in amongst the players who spoke candidly about their recent play. Henrik Zetterberg said “We aren’t good enough to win games” while Dylan Larkin said “No one’s happy. It’s almost a rock-bottom thing. I haven’t felt like this in my career” and also that this streaks feels worse than anything last year.

Offense has been hard to come by with just 11 goals over the six game losing streak and the constant line shuffling by Blashill probably hasn’t helped. Blashill is known for constantly putting his lines in a blender but made a surprise announcement yesterday that his lines will remain the same as they are now for the foreseeable future. We’ll see how long that lasts but for right now that means Martin Frk is stuck down on the fourth line which seems incredibly inefficient. Zetterberg-Tatar-Nyquist and Larkin-Helm-Athanasiou will be the top-six.

Defenseman Danny DeKeyser had a setback with his injury and is likely not available again tonight.

The Florida Panthers opened a five game homestand with an 8-3 thumping on Anaheim Thursday night.

The top line of Barkov, Huberdeau and Dadonov have been on fire this past week but the depth is a bit of a concern right now. Injuries to Jared McCann, Colton Sceviour and Connor Brickley have left the bottom-six a little short of bodies and while none of those players are individually worth anything to the line movement it should still be taken into consideration.

I was really impressed with the Panthers solidarity on Thursday night. Barkov was cross-checked in the face by Josh Manson and his teammates came to his aid. Micheal Haley started a fight with Manson shortly after he exited the penalty box for that cross-check. James Reimer was also run over and his teammates stood up for him. It’s something you expect from every team but you don’t always see and is a good sign for the Panthers moving forward.

Roberto Luongo is eligible to come off the IR today but he won’t be ready to return yet. He’s still taking some time to get the mobility back in his hand so expect Reimer to start again.

I don’t think there’s an edge at the current number but this would be Florida or nothing here tonight.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Projected Goaltenders
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott/Michal Neuvirth (unknown)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (likely)

Injury Report
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out), Patrick (questionable)
Toronto – van Riemsdyk (questionable)

The Philadelphia Flyers dropped their second straight game to a depleted Senators team by a score of 5-4 on Thursday night despite what appeared to be a game-tying goal late that was waved off and not overturned after a review. The Flyers were adamant it went in the net (it appeared so) but will have to put it behind them quickly and move on which could be tough for a young team.

I mentioned before how Andy MacDonald isn’t by any means an analytics darling but he had been playing very well to start this year. The defense has now given up 11 goals in the two games he’s missed and they’ve looked frantic in their own end without his veteran presence. The word the team has used is “jittery” but any way you look at it the Flyers are struggling to keep the puck out of the net. Poor goaltending from Elliott and Neuvirth the last two games hasn’t helped. I would imagine Hakstol would go back to Elliott today but we’ll have to wait and see.

Nolan Patrick was expected to play Thursday night but ended up being a late scratch before puck drop. He returned to practice on Friday on his regular line and is hopeful to go tonight but we’ll find out officially later this morning.

The Toronto Maple Leafs played a poor game in Thursday’s 6-3 loss to Carolina where once again too many mistakes crept up in their play and their work ethic was put into question. Babcock brought Friday’s practice to an abrupt halt after just 24 minutes on the ice and had a couple of choice comments for his players, asking if everyone knew how to backcheck followed by saying if anyone was paying attention to 38-year old Patrick Marleau, it was a good opportunity to learn how to approach practice and a game.

The Leafs at home on a Saturday night as about as solid of a spot as you can get in the NHL and everything lines up well for us to take a shot on them tonight. With the Flyers amid their first real struggle of the season and the Leafs coming off a flat loss, look for them to get it going tonight. The Leafs will be our one play to start things off today.

NEW YORK RANGERS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

Projected Goaltenders
NY Rangers – Ondrej Pavelec (confirmed)
Montreal – Carey Price (confirmed)

Injury Report
NY Rangers – no significant injuries
Montreal – Schlemko (out), Hemsky (out)

The New York Rangers got back in the win column with Thursday’s 5-2 win over Arizona but there’s not much to get excited about when you dominate a winless team. If anything, it’s just a sigh of relief as a loss there would have been much more devastating than what the win provided.

The surprise news here is Vigneault is going back to Pavelec in net after he made 27 saves last game. It’s a strange decision considering Lundqvist shut out Montreal 2-0 earlier this year and played three incredible games here in last year’s playoffs. If you think it’s because he’s historically struggled at the Bell Centre with a 3.87 goals-against average and .877 save percentage, well Pavelec’s career numbers of 3.18 and .898 shouldn’t exactly inspire confidence (besides the fact that historical numbers have absolutely nothing to do with this one independent game).

Vigneault’s explanation was, “Just feel it’s the right thing to do for the game.” Well, nothing else that Vigneault has felt was right has actually worked out so far this year so I’m not sure why we should expect this move to either.

The Montreal Canadiens don’t exactly have things figured out any better themselves after a strange 4-0 loss to Los Angeles on Thursday night. It was strange in the sense that the Canadiens actually looked like they played a pretty good game up front but Carey Price was downright brutal allowing a couple of softies. That just isn’t supposed to happen to the proclaimed best goaltender in the world but it’s something that is beginning to become more frequent this season. Price simply needs to be better for the Canadiens to have a chance so tonight’s game will be a huge statement by him one way or another.

I still think Montreal has been playing better hockey recently and even though I don’t see an edge at the current number, I’d expect a better effort from Price tonight and it should be Habs or nothing here.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ MINNESOTA WILD

Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (probable)
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (probable)

Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Schultz (out), Hunwick (out)
Minnesota – Parise (out), Coyle (out), Niederreiter (questionable)

The Pittsburgh Penguins pulled out a 2-1 overtime win against Winnipeg on Thursday night as Matt Murray was dominant again. The defense has responded well in a pair of home wins after allowing seven goals at Tampa Bay. It will be interesting to see if they’ve actually fixed some issues now that they go back on the road where the defense has been very leaky. In six road games this year they’ve only held the opposition under three goals once and have allowed four or more in four of those six contests (to be fair, three of those games were started by Niemi though).

Minnesota earned a 6-4 win over the Islanders on Thursday as they continue a six game homestand. Nino Niederreiter skated with the team for the second straight day on Friday and is questionable to return tonight. It will depend on how he responds again in the morning skate but the team is hopeful he’ll return either tonight or for Tuesday’s game.

This line opened within my expected range but has moved a bit towards the Wild. My line is with Niederreiter out so if he plays this will likely be no play. If he’s out and this continues to move a bit, we’ll have value on Pittsburgh and be okay with locking them in as a play tonight. I’ll tweet out an update for this one later.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS

Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak (confirmed)
Nashville – Juuse Saros (likely)

Injury Report
NY Islanders – no significant injuries
Nashville – Ellis (out), Bonino (out)

The New York Islanders are coming off a 6-4 loss Thursday at Minnesota. Jaroslav Halak will be back in net for the Isles tonight and I’m always more interested in backing them behind him than with Greiss.

Doug Weight called the effort “embarrassing, zero effort” in a game which saw the powerplay go another 0-fer on the night and allowed two more shorthanded goals (now five against on the year).

It looks like Weight might be making a change to his lines tonight according to Friday’s practice. Jordan Eberle was bumped down to the second line while Josh Bailey took a spot beside Tavares.

The Nashville Predators are coming off a hard-fought 2-1 victory at Chicago last night behind a stellar effort from Pekka Rinne so I’d expect Saros to get the start tonight, which honestly really doesn’t change much in terms of the line. Rinne was great last night so maybe they go back to him tonight but they shouldn’t. If Rinne starts the back-to-back I would move my number more in favor to the Isles side.

Offense continues to be a problem for the Preds at 5-on-5 as they’ve only managed to score ten goals in nine games which is tied for the lowest mark in the league.

My numbers aren’t high on this Predators team and they seem to be overvalued in the market most of the time. The team is being priced higher because they made it to the Stanley Cup Final last year but in reality this was a slightly above average team at the end of the regular season and are now without Ryan Ellis on the backend. I expect this line to open a fair bit above my range so I’ll be looking to add New York as a play later this morning.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES

Projected Goaltenders
Columbus – Joonas Korpisalo (likely)
St. Louis – Jake Allen (probable)

Injury Report
Columbus – Carlsson (out)
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)

Both teams coming off a back-to-back, Columbus hits the road after a 2-1 overtime win against Winnipeg while St. Louis makes a return trip home after a 2-1 win in Carolina. For the Blues it the beginning of a four game homestand at the Scottrade Center where they are already 3-0 on the season.

We’re likely to see Korpisalo for the Jackets but Bobrovsky is one of the few goaltenders likely to play on back-to-backs and Torts is one of the few coaches to do it so we’ll have to wait and see.

There’s a significant downgrade to Korpisalo so if he starts then we’ll likely have a play on the Blues tonight. Jake Allen is expected to start after Carter Allen went last night.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE

Projected Goaltenders
Chicago – Anton Forsberg (likely)
Colorado – Jonathan Bernier (probable)

Injury Report
Chicago – Hossa (out)
Colorado – Jost (out), Compher (out)

Another set of two teams playing the second half of a back-to-back. Chicago was the better team last night but couldn’t solve Pekka Rinne in a 2-1 loss while Colorado was pasted 7-0 in Vegas. Varlamov played the entire game so we should see Jonathan Bernier in net tonight while Forsberg is likely to start for the Hawks.

Not much to add here and with no line available we’ll wait to see where this opens. I think it’s likely to be around my number so not expecting a play here.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ EDMONTON OILERS

Projected Goaltenders
Washington – Braden Holtby/Philipp Grubauer (unknown)
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (probable)

Injury Report
Washington – Niskanen (out), Burakovsky (out), Connolly (out), Backstrom (questionable)
Edmonton – Sekera (out)

The Washington Capitals have dropped two in a row and four of five as they continue their Western Canada road trip. They play tomorrow night in Calgary so we’ll have to wait and see if it’s Holtby or Grubauer here tonight. Holtby was pulled last game after allowing five goals so expect him to bounce back with a better performance next time he’s in net.

Washington has been a good team to us so far this season as mostly a fade but it’s likely we’ll be on them tonight against the struggling Oilers. Nicklas Backstrom missed Thursday’s game due to illness and it’s unclear if he’ll return tonight. Brett Connolly will miss both weekend games after suffering a possible concussion.

This should be a good game of top-line versus top-line as both clubs are lacking depth and secondary scoring. If Backstrom can’t go I’ll likely lay off this one but otherwise expect a play on the Caps later today.