NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, November 5th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Oilers won three of lat four games with Detroit; home side won four of last five series games. Red Wings lost 3-1/4-3 in last two visits to Edmonton. Over is 4-2 in last six series games. Detroit lost seven of last nine games overall, four of last five on road. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Edmonton lost seven of last ten games; they split last four at home. Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Home side won last six Colorado-Islander games; Avalanche was outscored 16-4 in losing their last three visits to Brooklyn- their last four visits here went over. Colorado won four of its last five games; their last six games went over. Avalanche lost three of last four road games. New York won five of its last seven games; they’re 4-1 at home. Islanders’ last seven games all went over the total.
Chicago won its last eight games with Montreal; Canadiens lost their last five games in this building, outscored 20-10— over is 3-2-1 in last six series games. Montreal won four of its last six games- they won in OT in Winnipeg yesterday. Eight of their last nine games went over the total. Chicago won its last two games 3-0/2-0, after a 1-5 skid. Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Calgary won seven of last nine games with New Jersey; under is 4-3-1 in last eight series games. Devils lost four of their last five games in the Saddledome. New Jersey won six of its last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Devils won four of their last five road games. Flames won their last two games 2-1/2-1; they lost four of last six home games. Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
MORNING LINE REPORT
It was a strange yet exciting Saturday night in the NHL as at one point we had four games tied at 4-4 and all heading to overtime. In all, we were treated with extra time in seven of the 13 games with three ending in overtime and four decided in the shootout. Shout-out to Joonas Donskoi (one of my favorite young players) for his slick shootout goal on Ryan Miller to seal two points for the Sharks.
Unfortunately, our afternoon started poorly with the boat race in Ottawa as I overthought that game and was completely off on the under play. I don’t have a fancy formula or anything for Totals which is why I rarely play them so it’s more of a situational play for me. I had a friend on Twitter (who does have fancy formulas) tell me after the fact that the under in Vegas-Ottawa was his highest expected edge he had for a total yesterday, so I think it was still a pretty good play. It just didn’t work out.
I added the Ducks-Sharks under after we had a line open there as we got the desired 5.5 total with reasonable juice. It ended up being a comfortable win for us but the day ended at just two victories with three losses. Honestly, I had the feeling all day that it was going to be a terrible night so I was still pretty happy to end up with the result, all things considered. We’ve done a good job of avoiding any big losing days here and are still over +13 units on the season so we’ll look to get back on track this week.
I need to get back to trusting my numbers more moving forward, as well, as there were multiple plays which could have been added yesterday that moved into range that I didn’t pull the trigger on for whatever reason (Colorado, Chicago and Nashville after Kuemper was announced for the Kings). It’s been a pretty hot run here for a couple weeks but it feels like that might be over now so we’ll get back to locking in on the numbers and be a little more cautious on the “feel” plays. Sometimes they work out (Capitals yesterday) and sometimes they don’t (Ducks on Friday) but you shouldn’t get into the habit of making plays without a consistent edge. That’s just gambling and while that’s fine if you’re just looking for entertainment, that’s not the goal here as this is a business for myself and the goal is to invest to make a profit.
DETROIT RED WINGS @ EDMONTON OILERS
Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Petr Mrazek (confirmed)
Edmonton – Cam Talbot/Laurent Brossoit (unknown)
Injury Report
Detroit – Danny DeKeyser (out)
Edmonton – Sekera (out)
The Detroit Red Wings have been the model of inconsistency after a 4-1-0 start was followed by a six game winless streak, then a two game win streak before dropping the opening game of four game road trip 3-1 in Ottawa on Thursday.
Dylan Larkin leads the Wings in scoring with 13 points but will be asked to do more on the defensive end this game as he’ll be responsible for slowing down Connor McDavid. The line of Larkin, Mantha and Athanasiou will be able to counter the Oilers top line with skill and speed and this game should be fast and exciting when these two lines are on the ice today.
With the Wings starting a back-to-back tonight, Mrazek is confirmed to get the start with Howard going Monday in Vancouver.
The Edmonton Oilers broke out in a big way on Friday evening with a 6-3 win over New Jersey. The Oilers controlled the game throughout and received much needed secondary scoring as Drake Caggiula and Oscar Klefbom both scored their first goal of the season.
It was especially nice to get Klefbom on the scoresheet as he’s been knocking on the door all season but has been the beneficiary of poor luck. Klefbom is contributing to 5.3 scoring chances per game this season which is an unbelievable number for a defenseman.
Players were in much higher spirits at yesterday’s practice after an all-around complete effort. It was one of the few games this season where all four lines were rolling and contributing and is hopefully something the team can build on.
Anton Slepyshev was hurt late in Friday’s game and is not expected to play tonight. Kailer Yamamoto skated on the second line in Saturday’s practice and will likely return to the lineup.
Cam Talbot has started all but one game this year and with a four game road trip coming up which ends with a back-to-back, I would think McLellan would want to have Brossoit ready to go so it seems like this would be a great spot to give him a start. The Oilers are desperate for wins though so it’s possible they’ll continue riding Talbot into the ground which will ultimately do them more harm than good.
I like the Oilers to win today regardless of who is in net for them as Mrazek is a good fade candidate any time he’s on the ice. I don’t see any value at the current number so let’s play the waiting game on this one. If Brossoit draws the start we should get a better number. I’ll tweet out an update later but expect to be getting on the Oilers in some regard tonight, be it in regulation or the -1.5 puck line or even the team total over. I know I just said in the intro above that we would be cautious with the “feel” plays moving forward and focus more on the numbers but we have a couple heavy favorites today that I feel more strongly about than usual so we’ll see what happens.
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Projected Goaltenders
Colorado – Jonathan Bernier (confirmed)
NY Islanders – Thomas Greiss (confirmed)
Injury Report
Colorado – Jost (out), Compher (out), Wilson (out)
NY Islanders – no significant injuries
The Colorado Avalanche have won three in a row after Saturday’s 5-4 shootout victory in Philadelphia. They’re in a tough spot today with the road back-to-back and backup Jonathan Bernier will get the start. The Avs will leave for Sweden after this one as part of the NHL’s new Global Series with a pair of games against the Ottawa Senators. I was completely wrong about the Senators yesterday and maybe they were caught with the distraction of getting ready to go overseas. It’s quite possible a similar fate awaits Colorado today as they are scheduled to leave late tonight on a red-eye flight and it seems like a good spot for a flat effort, especially with the team having banked some points recently.
There’s also possibly the distraction of the Matt Duchene trade speculation that made its rounds around social media the past couple of days where it was reported a three-way deal between the Avs, Senators and Predators fell through that would have sent Duchene to the Sens which should be another interesting storyline as the Avs and Sens head to Sweden together. This is an on-going problem that Sakic needed to address over the summer and now it’s carrying into the season.
The New York Islanders dropped a 4-3 decision at Washington on Thursday night but have still won five of their last seven games as they return home for a short two game homestand.
Halak has started the last three games for the Isles but coming off a loss I would expect Weight to go back with Greiss today. Whether it’s Greiss or Halak, this is a great spot for the Isles and the opener at just -185 was considerably short [UPDATE: Greiss was just confirmed before I sent this in].
We would have had a play on New York here earlier but the market has already agreed this morning and this line has soared to -215 which has erased all value for us. Like the Oilers, I’ll be looking to get on the Isles in some regard today whether it’s regulation or possibly a parlay with Edmonton. I’ll need some more time to figure out how we’re going to play these big favorites today and will tweet out an update later.
MONTREAL CANADIENS @ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Projected Goaltenders
Montreal – Carey Price/Al Montoya/Charlie Lindgren (unknown)
Chicago – Corey Crawford/Anton Forsberg (unknown)
Injury Report
Montreal – Hemsky (out), Schlemko (out)
Chicago – Hossa (out)
The Montreal Canadiens earned maybe their biggest confidence building win of the season last night with their 5-4 overtime win at Winnipeg. The Canadiens erased a 4-2 third period deficit to force the game to overtime where Max Pacioretty buried his fifth goal of the season in a game where Montreal really dominated from start to finish.
Montreal fired 50 shots on net to just 23 against and forced the Jets into bad turnovers all night. Winnipeg struck three times on the powerplay which is about the only time they had any success. The Canadiens have now won three of four and scored 21 goals in those four games. They conclude their four game road trip with the tough back-to-back here before heading home for a six game stay.
Carey Price remains day-to-day and hasn’t been ruled out for today. Al Montoya was just okay last night and we’re not even sure if he would get the start if Price can’t go. He also took a blistering shot off the mask late in yesterday’s game. Charlie Lindgren remained with the team as of early this morning so we’ll have to wait for an announcement here as it will make a big difference to the line.
Corey Crawford has pitched back-to-back shutouts for the Chicago Blackhawks after a big 2-0 win at Minnesota last night. Quenneville said the other day it’s possible Crawford could start both games this weekend and with his current run it’s going to be very hard to take him out of the net tonight.
A line just opened here this morning and it was a bit high on Chicago but immediately dropped closer to what it should be. There’s still a touch of value on Montreal but not enough to warrant a full play. With both team’s goaltenders up in the air we’ll wait for some more news here. I made the line with Montoya/Crawford but it could potentially change a fair bit depending on who starts. I’ll tweet out an update once we know more but it looks like Montreal or nothing.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ CALGARY FLAMES
Projected Goaltenders
New Jersey – Keith Kinkaid (confirmed)
Calgary – Mike Smith/Eddie Lack (unknown)
Injury Report
New Jersey – Zajac (out), Palmieri (out), Johansson (doubtful)
Calgary – Jagr (out), Hamonic (doubtful)
The New Jersey Devils dropped their first road game of the season in an overall poor effort in Friday’s 6-3 loss at Edmonton. The Devils were poor defensively against the Oilers and we’ll quickly find out tonight whether this was just a small blip in their otherwise hot start or the beginning of something to worry about as they take on a Flames team really struggling to score goals.
John Hynes will make a couple of minor lineup changes for tonight moving Miles Wood up from the fourth line to the second while dropping Brian Gibbons to the third and Brian Boyle to the fourth line wing. Marcus Johansson is expected to miss his second consecutive game with a concussion as he was unable to practice yesterday. His loss is bigger than maybe some realize and coupled with the absence of Kyle Palmieri, the Devils depth is hit pretty hard.
The Calgary Flames are coming off a pair of impressive 2-1 victories over the Capitals and Penguins as they continue their seven game homestand. The Flames have only scored three or more goals in four of 13 games. The play of Mike Smith has been outstanding but it’s been the defense in front of him that has steadily improved over the last couple of weeks as Calgary has only allowed three or more goals twice over the past eight games.
That defensive unit will take a hit on Sunday though as Travis Hamonic was forced to leave yesterday’s practice with an injury. Matt Bartkowski is expected to draw into the lineup which could mean a scary-weak third-pair of himself and Kulak.
Both these teams have a lot of speed in their lineup which makes you think we could see a bit of a track meet up and down the ice today but Gulutzan said he wasn’t necessarily interested in matching speed with speed. He’d rather focus on taking away the Devils speed by holding pucks in the offensive zone and leaning on them, so maybe we see another low scoring Flames game tonight.
Jaromir Jagr will also miss another game as he continues to recover from a groin injury. Gulutzan is hopeful Jagr will return on Tuesday when the Canucks come to town.
Calgary hasn’t announced a starter as of yet so we’ll have to wait and see if Eddie Lack gets a start here. The Flames don’t have another back-to-back until November 24th and 25th so I would think we’ll see him at some point on this homestand.
Calgary would be a play at BetOnline right now as they have the line at -179 but its -183 to -185 pretty much everywhere else and I don’t give out plays that aren’t widely available for everyone. Until Smith or Lack is confirmed we’ll sit this one out for now. It’s a tough day with no immediate plays for the morning article but we’re not going to force anything until we have more information. Some days that’s just how it goes. Stay tuned to my social media for updates this afternoon.