NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, October 29th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Ducks won eight of last ten games with Carolina; they’re 4-1 in last five visits to Raleigh. Over is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Anaheim won three of its last four games; they split their last four road games. Three of their last four games went over. Hurricanes lost three of last four games overall (over 3-1)— they lost their last three home games.
Penguins won nine of last ten games with Winnipeg; over is 6-3 in last nine series games. Pittsburgh won three of last four visits to Manitoba. Penguins won five of their last seven games; they split their last six road games. Last three Pittsburgh games stayed under. Winnipeg lost three of last four games, losing last two games 2-1 in OT; Jets split their four home games. Over is 6-3 in their games this season.
Washington is 7-3 in its last ten games with Calgary, winning last three games in Saddledome; road team won five of last six series games. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Caps lost four of their last six games; they split their last six road games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Flames lost four of their last five games; they’ve lost four in a row at home. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
MORNING LINE REPORT
*NOTE* I finished writing this before lines opened but right when I went to submit, I noticed they started to pop up so I held off so I could update the chart with plays. I didn’t change any of the writing so keep that in mind when reading if something may not make sense.
The Toronto Maple Leafs closed at -135 yesterday (Pinnacle close) which was 25 cents lower than what I bet in the morning at -160. It was the single biggest move against me this season and I was perplexed by it all day. Well, the market got me on this one as the Leafs laid an egg (although Philly’s go-ahead goal at 2-1 shouldn’t have counted and then maybe it would have been a different result, but still the Leafs stunk it up). I’m usually on the right side of the line move about 70% of the time so I’m not too concerned when one goes against me, but when I’m off that much I definitely have to make note of it and investigate further. Maybe there’s something wrong with my Philadelphia formula or maybe it’s the Leafs so that’s something I’ll be spending time on today, trying to figure out if I need to change something (I already found something that could be the problem on the Toronto side, so hopefully it will be an easy fix).
The only Twitter addition yesterday was St. Louis as I added them late after Korpisalo was finally confirmed in net for Columbus and that worked out nicely for us. If you read yesterday’s article you were probably expecting added plays on the Islanders and Capitals as everything lined up as I had hoped but for some reason I didn’t pull the trigger. I’ll blame this virus that knocked me on my butt the past 48 hours for clouding my judgement but it was disappointing to miss out on a couple of easy underdog winners for no good reason. Hopefully the information helped someone cash a ticket on either of those two games.
We have a unique situation with the three games today as all the road teams are playing the second half of a back-to-back both on the road and that’s a big reason why my lines today will look juiced towards the home side. All three road teams are likely to play their backup goaltender today, as well, which is another significant hit.
Travel is a very important factor in line creation and we have lots of historical data to back up how different situations affect teams. A team playing their third game in four nights compared to a team who has had two days off is significant in value to the line. It’s even more if the tired team is on the road. Similarly, a team playing back-to-back games both on the road is not worth the same as a team playing back-to-back games at home. Oddsmakers account for all these things in the line already and you should be too.
I’m sure oddsmakers will also inflate the home sides a little bit today but I don’t expect lines to open as high as my number for Carolina and Calgary, especially, so expect some Twitter additions once we get some goaltender confirmations.
ANAHEIM DUCKS @ CAROLINA HURRICANES
Projected Goaltenders
Anaheim – Ryan Miller (probable)
Carolina – Scott Darling (confirmed)
Injury Report
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Fowler (out), Bieksa (out)
Carolina – Stempniak (doubtful), Teravainen (questionable)
The Anaheim Ducks were sparked by a couple of powerplay goals last night and became the first team this season to knock off Tampa Bay on their home ice and were also the first time to keep Kucherov and Stamkos off the scoresheet with the 4-1 victory. The return of defenseman Sami Vatanen was another big boost for a team decimated by early injuries and his return took me by surprise. I tweeted out the update when I saw he was returning and noted that this one got by me. I’m usually on top of injuries as good as anyone but I missed that one yesterday.
Ryan Miller dressed as the backup for the first time this season and he’s likely to get his first start today after John Gibson made 31 saves last night. I would expect a bit of rust from the 37-year old and with the Ducks on the road back-to-back as I mentioned above, that combination is a significant boost to my number on the Canes.
The Carolina Hurricanes dropped a 2-1 decision to St. Louis at home on Friday night in a game that saw Teuvo Teravainen leave in the second period with an upper-body injury. It’s unclear if he’ll return today and he’s expected to be a game-time decision. Carolina is usually a tough place to play but the Canes have struggled on home ice thus far this season, dropping three of four so I would expect a big effort here today.
Carolina has dominated teams in possession in all but two games this season and are currently the second best overall possession team in the league at 5-on-5. Anaheim has struggled in this regard (likely due to their best puck-moving defensemen being out) and despite a sound win over the Lightning last night, the Ducks were still chasing the puck around for most of the night. Expect Carolina to control the flow of this game, as well.
I imagine we’ll have a play on the Canes here when this one opens.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ WINNIPEG JETS
Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Casey DeSmith/Matt Murray (unknown)
Winnipeg – Steve Mason/Connor Hellebuyck (unknown)
Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Schultz (out), Hunwick (out)
Winnipeg – Perreault (out), Lowry (out), Scheifele (probable)
The Pittsburgh Penguins lost a tight 2-1 game in Minnesota last night, giving up the winner at the midway mark of the third period. Now they travel to Western Canada for the next week beginning with a rematch from Thursday night in Winnipeg. The Penguins knocked off the Jets 2-1 thanks to a Phil Kessel breakaway winner in overtime.
Offense has suddenly become a problem for the defending champions with just six goals in their last four games and the team feels as if they aren’t putting together a full 60 minute effort. With the lack of depth compared to the past couple of seasons it’s not surprising that the Pens can’t go full out and terrorize team for entire games like they’re used to doing.
Sullivan said he wasn’t sure if he’d go back to Matt Murray tonight or give rookie Casey DeSmith his first NHL start so we’ll have to wait for this confirmation. Obviously it would be an incredibly huge swing to my number if Murray got the start again, even on a back-to-back. Pittsburgh unfortunately won’t hold a morning skate today so we’ll have to wait until Sullivan speaks with the media at 5 p.m. local time.
The Winnipeg Jets have secured at least one point in six of the last seven games but are coming off a couple of tough 2-1 overtime defeats to Pittsburgh and then Columbus. The Jets showed they could skate with the Penguins back in Pittsburgh on Thursday and now catch the Penguins in a tough travel spot so they’ll be looking to extract some revenge.
One thing to keep an eye on here this morning is the status of Mark Scheifele. He took a knee-on-knee hit in the third period on Friday but was able to finish the game. Maurice didn’t have an update after the game and I didn’t catch one yesterday. He’s probably good to go but you never know how a knee or elbow can react overnight with swelling so we’ll need to confirm him today.
If Scheifele is good to go and DeSmith starts for the Penguins, expect a play on Winnipeg here tonight. Like I mentioned, we may have to wait until closer to game time before we get the goaltending announcement so check in with me on Twitter around that time.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ CALGARY FLAMES
Projected Goaltenders
Washington – Philipp Grubauer (probable)
Calgary – Mike Smith (probable)
Injury Report
Washington – Niskanen (out), Burakovsky (out), Connolly (out)
Calgary – Jagr (questionable)
The Washington Capitals wrap up a three game trip through Western Canada after last night’s dominating third period resulted in a 5-2 win at Edmonton. The Caps overcame an early 2-0 deficit and scored five unanswered goals including three in the third period to break open a 2-2 tie.
Devante Smith-Pelly was inserted on a line with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov and the trio lit things up all night. Smith-Pelly has been bounced around a number of teams the past few years but I’ve always thought he was poorly utilized everywhere he’s played. With the Caps dealing with some injuries in their top-six, he should have a chance to show if he can be more consistent.
Philipp Grubauer is likely to get the start on the back-to-back tonight. The Caps have dropped both tail-ends of back-to-backs already this season and have looked poor in both. A 8-2 loss and Philadelphia and a 4-1 loss at home to Florida, both with Grubauer in net, probably shouldn’t be a huge surprise as this year’s version of the Caps doesn’t have the depth to handle these situations as well as before.
The Calgary Flames are in a bit of a funk right now having lost four of their last five and four of five overall on home ice. This will be the second game of a long seven game homestand where they need to bank some points so expect a little more intense effort from the Flames tonight, especially since they won’t play again until Thursday after this one.
One positive for the Flames lately has been the play of their “3M Line” consisting of Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk and Michael Frolik who become pests to opposing top lines, much like last season. They should be able to neutralize the Ovechkin line tonight.
Despite Calgary’s recent troubles their 5-on-5 play has been excellent as they’ve only allowed five goals over the past five games. It’s been their special teams which have mightily struggled. The Flames have allowed two powerplay goals in each of the last three games and eight overall in the last five games while not scoring a single powerplay marker of their own.
Jaromir Jagr is eligible to come off the IR today and he returned to practice on a line with Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski yesterday. Gulutzan said if Jagr is ready then he’ll play but it won’t be decided until the morning skate.
We should have some value on the Flames tonight so I’ll be looking to add them later this morning.