Thursday’s NHL
Bruins won their last ten games with Arizona, outscoring Coyotes 16-3 in their last four games played here. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Arizona lost four of its last five games; they lost their last three road games. Under is 14-2 in their last sixteen games. Bruins won six of their last eight games; they split last eight home games. Under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.
Islanders won 4-3so/5-3 in their last two games with Pittsburgh; three of last four series games went over total. New York lost three of last four games in the Steel City. Islanders won five of their last seven games; they won five of last seven road games. Over is 9-1-1 in their last eleven games. Penguins won four of their last five games overall, three of last four at home. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Winnipeg is 6-4 in its last ten games with Florida; home side won seven of last nine in series. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Winnipeg is 9-4 in its last 13 games; they lost their last three road games. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Florida lost its last three games, all by one goal; they lost their last three home games, too. Eight of their last ten games stayed under total.
Colorado/Tampa Bay split their last 10 meetings; road team won last four. Avalanhe won 4-0/2-1 in their last two visits to the Bay Area. Colorado lost five of its last six games overall, four of last five on road; five of their last seven games stayed under total. Tampa Bay won three of its last four games; they won five of their last six home games. Five of their last six home games went over total.
Flames are 6-4 in their last ten games with Montreal, 3-2 in last five visits here. Over is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Calgary lost its last three games; they lost in a SO in Toronto last nite; Flames lost three of last four road games. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Montreal won five of its last six games overall, four of last five at home- their last three games went over total.
Blues won their last four games with Dallas; five of last six series games went over. Dallas lost their last three visits here, outscored 12-8. Dallas Stars won five of their last six games; they won their last three road games. Over is 8-4 in their last dozen games. St Louis lost three of its last four games; they lost four of last six home tilts. Three of their last four games stayed under total.
Flyers won three of last four games with Vancouver; they split last four visits here. Over is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Flyers won their last two games after a 10-game skid; they’re 4-7 in last 11 road games. Seven of their last nine games went over total. Vancouver won its last three games, allowing four goals; they’re 3-5 in last eight home games. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Kings are 6-4 in last 10 games with Ottawa; road team is 5-3 in last eight series games. Under is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Ottawa lost nine of its last ten games; they got shut out in last two. Senators lost six of their last seven road games. Four of their last five games stayed under total. Los Angeles won its last six games, allowing total of eight goals; they won three of last four home games. Under is 10-2-1 in their last thirteen games.
Carolina won seven of last ten games with San Jose; they’re 3-2 in last five visits here. Four of last five series games went over the total. Carolina lost five of its last seven games; they’re 1-4 in their last five road games. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. San Jose is 4-6 in its last ten games, losing three of last four at home; 10 of their last 12 games stayed under the total.
armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips December 7, 2017
Date 07th Dec 2017
Author Parker Michaels
MORNING LINE REPORT – Thursday, December 7th
It’s been a bit of a tough week here. We’ve lost a couple of heartbreaking shootouts, including the Flames last night who were the better team throughout the night and deserved the bonus point. When the puck is on Johnny Gaudreau’s stick for the win, we can usually count on him coming through but the Hockey Gods weren’t having it. And as one reporter said, it was the best game he’s ever seen Frederik Andersen play.
We have a nine-game card tonight but it’s not the prettiest. Lines look pretty tight with the exception of a couple of real ugly looking dogs with Florida and Colorado. I’ve been back and forth debating these and in the end the decision is to stay on the cautious side and pass as we look to ride out this rough patch. We’ll crank up the plays again and be more aggressive when we’re seeing the board better, so for tonight we’re going to ride with just the solo play.
ARIZONA COYOTES @ BOSTON BRUINS
Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Antti Raanta (possible)
Boston –Tuukka Rask (confirmed)
Injury Report
Arizona – Hjalmarsson (out)
Boston – McQuaid (out), Spooner (doubtful), DeBrusk (likely)
The Arizona Coyotes were outplayed Sunday night but put up enough of a fight to earn a point in a 3-2 overtime loss at Vegas. Jakob Chychrun scored his first goal and looked comfortable in his season debut. His return gives the Coyotes a solid looking top-four on defense of Ekman-Larsson, Demers, himself and Goligoski. When Niklas Hjalmarsson returns that unit will be even more formidable but it sounds like Arizona will have to wait a bit for his return. Hjalmarsson is eligible to come off the IR today but he’s been unable to resume on-ice activities and there’s still no timetable for his return.
The other missing piece to the Coyotes mid-November success could return today. Antti Raanta was medically cleared and went through a full practice both Tuesday and Wednesday. Tocchet said they would evaluate how he responded after the practices and it sounds likely that he’ll return tonight.
I mentioned before about having this game circled on the calendar as the Coyotes have had a terribly condensed schedule with little to no practice time and for a young team that was just a real killer. Arizona last played Sunday and enjoyed their first full three day break this season and were able to get in a couple of really good practices. That should make a big difference for this team and if Raanta returns this is a good live dog spot.
The Boston Bruins might have enjoyed themselves a little too much in the Music City as they were late showing up to Monday’s game at Nashville. The Bruins fell behind 4-0 early and by the time they found their legs it was too late as they fell by a 5-3 score. Boston is still 6-2-0 over their last eight games and will now play eight of their next ten games at TD Garden as they look to continue climbing the standings.
The return to health has been a big factor in the Bruins recent surge and they’re likely to get one more back today as rookie Jake DeBrusk fully practiced yesterday. He skated on a line with David Krejci and Anders Bjork and although Cassidy called him a game-time decision for tonight, it appears all that stands in his way is being activated off the IR so look for DeBrusk to be back in the lineup tonight. DeBrusk was having a fine start to the season and becoming a key contributor with six points over his last six games and his return is worth a bit more than a typical rookie.
Ryan Spooner did not practice yesterday as he deals with an aggravation of his previous groin injury and it sounds like he won’t be available tonight.
Adam McQuaid is near a return as he recovers from a broken fibula. Cassidy said the defenseman could return by next week.
This line opened as if Scott Wedgewood was going to start in goal but is a shade high if Raanta starts. I made my line with Raanta in goal and there will be a small bit of value on Arizona based on the current number but we’ll need to wait for confirmation of that. I’m not real crazy about the idea of going against the Bruins as they’re a team I think is going to be worth backing for a while so this game is a bit of a conflict for me. We’ll wait for the Raanta yes or no and see where the line is and then make a final decision but I’ll probably be okay with just sitting this one out completely.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak (expected)
Pittsburgh – Tristan Jarry (expected)
Injury Report
NY Islanders – Kulemin (out), Cizikas (questionable)
Pittsburgh – Schultz (doubtful)
The New York Islanders were in a tough spot Tuesday night on the tail-end of a back-to-back in Tampa Bay and the Lightning utilized their speed to wear down the Isles and turn a 2-2 game late in the second period into a 6-2 rout.
Jaroslav Halak is expected to get the start in goal tonight but it hasn’t seemed to matter whether he or Thomas Greiss man the net this season as the Isles can’t seem to keep the puck out of it. New York has given up the fifth most goals in the league in large part to a penalty kill unit ranked 29th overall at just 75 percent. As of late, the unit has been even less effective giving up 11 goals over their last 27 times shorthanded. That could spell trouble against the high-powered and efficient powerplay of the Penguins.
Casey Cizikas joined the team yesterday and could return to the lineup tonight after missing the last four games.
The Pittsburgh Penguins were a victim of variance on Tuesday night when their dismantling of the Rangers somehow still resulted in a loss. The Penguins held the lead twice and I stopped counting hit goal posts after four. The winning goal was scored by Kris Letang – by a puck that deflected off of him and into his own net. The Penguins continue their five game homestand tonight and despite Tuesday’s loss they’ve still won four of five and looked very sharp the past couple of weeks.
Defenseman Justin Schultz left Tuesday’s game with a lower-body injury and did not return. He was unable to practice yesterday and is all but out for tonight. Sullivan said they were waiting on test results yesterday afternoon and wasn’t going to rule him out completely but that it wasn’t probable at that point. Chad Ruhwedel is expected to take Schultz’s spot next to Ian Cole.
Matt Murray is starting to make some progress as he’s back on the ice doing some light skating. He’s still a ways from returning though so Tristan Jarry will continue to carry the load. The Penguins finally get a break in their schedule this month and won’t play another back-to-back until early January.
Evgeni Malkin has been hot since his return from an upper-body injury last week. Malkin has four points in three games and his entire second line with Jake Guentzel and Phil Kessel has ignited the Pens offense. Pittsburgh has scored at least three goals in six straight games and have potted five goals in three of those games.
The Penguins got off to a bit of a slow start this season which is natural for a Stanley Cup winner but they’ve really turned it on as of late. I think they’re pretty undervalued in the market right now and coupled with the Islanders being overvalued thanks to their good record, it’s no surprise this line opened well short, in my view. We’ll gladly jump on the Penguins again here and hope for a bit better luck tonight.
WINNIPEG JETS @ FLORIDA PANTHERS
Projected Goaltenders
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (expected)
Florida – James Reimer (confirmed)
Injury Report
Winnipeg – Enstrom (out)
Florida – Dadonov (out)
The Winnipeg Jets have been a lights out team at home but only average while on the road. The Jets dropped the opener of a three game trip in Detroit on Tuesday by a 5-1 score in an overall lethargic performance. It’s the third straight road loss for Winnipeg and they’ve looked incredibly poor in each of them so tonight’s game is going to be a big one for them.
Kyle Connor returned to the lineup and back in his usual spot on the top line which allowed Mathieu Perreault to slide back down to the fourth line but it didn’t help the offense on this night.
With Steve Mason on the IR, Connor Hellebuyck is expected to get the start in goal again. He gave up five goals last game for the fourth time this season but has been great at bouncing back. He’s given up a total of just three goals in the four games that followed each of those five goal performances.
The Florida Panthers seemed to have things in control Monday night over the Islanders until a freak injury to Roberto Luongo forced the goaltender out of the game. James Reimer has had a tough go of it this year and quickly gave up a pair of goals and the eventual game winner in the shootout of a 5-4 loss.
The Panthers have been playing better hockey as of it but have come out on the wrong side of one-goal losses in three straight games.
Luongo is expected to miss “an extended period of time” which might be the final straw for this team. Luongo was dominant since his return from a hand injury with a .936 save percentage over 11 games and this has to be a huge mental blow to the team. Reimer was very good last year splitting time but in 14 games this season he has just a .892 save percentage and has a -7.84 goals-saved-above-average which ranks him 56th out of 63 qualified goaltenders this season. And the Cats don’t exactly have a young goaltender in the pipeline who’s ready to make the jump as the new backup will be 27-year old Harri Sateri who had exceled in the Finnish league but has struggled with the North American game this year in Springfield. Sateri was very good for Finland in the world Championships last year and with the Panthers having a back-to-back next week I’m hoping we get a chance to see him get a start.
As has been the norm with my numbers, I see the Jets being overvalued on the road with this line opener. Florida would normally be a decent home dog play tonight but I don’t think I’m going to pull the trigger on this one. A team usually rises up when a star player goes down to injury but in this case it’s the goaltender and I’m not sure this qualifies as the usual strong situation play. The Jets are also coming off a loss where they weren’t exactly full effort so I would expect a bounce back by them. I think we’re better off sitting this one out.
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Projected Goaltenders
Colorado –
Tampa Bay –
Injury Report
Colorado – Nemeth (out), Landeskog (in)
Tampa Bay – Dotchin (questionable), Coburn (questionable)
Write-up to come.
CALGARY FLAMES @ MONTREAL CANADIENS
Projected Goaltenders
Calgary – David Rittich (likely)
Montreal – Carey Price (confirmed)
Injury Report
Calgary – Versteeg (out), Jagr (questionable), Tkachuk (questionable)
Montreal – Hemsky (out), Lehkonen (doubtful), Drouin (questionable)
Write-up to come.
DALLAS STARS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES
Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Kari Lehtonen (confirmed)
St. Louis –
Injury Report
Dallas – Methot (out), Hanzal (doubtful)
St. Louis – Fabbri (out)
Write-up to come.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Projected Goaltenders
Philadelphia –
Vancouver –
Injury Report
Philadelphia – Gudas (out), Manning (out)
Vancouver – Sutter (out), Gudbranson (out)
Write-up to come.
OTTAWA SENATORS @ LOS ANGELES KINGS
Projected Goaltenders
Ottawa – Mike Condon (likely)
Los Angeles –
Injury Report
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Wideman (out), Borowiecki (out)
Los Angeles – Carter (out), Clifford (out), Andreoff (questionable)
Write-up to come.
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ SAN JOSE SHARKS
Projected Goaltenders
Carolina –
San Jose –
Injury Report
Carolina – Stempniak (out)
San Jose – Boedker (out), Dillon (out), Donskoi (questionable), Karlsson (questionable), Martin (questionable), Heed (questionable)
Write-up to come.
-END OF DECEMBER 7 PICKS-
MORNING LINE REPORT – Wednesday, December 6th
The cold winter weather of December has brought its cold spell right to my daily NHL picks as we’ve started in the hole for the second consecutive month. We can sit here and lament over how we feel a better fate was deserved last night in Pittsburgh and Minnesota or how Montreal was tied in the third period before losing but it doesn’t do any good to cry over spilled milk. It’s a very long season and there are going to be rough patches to go with the good times and occasionally there could be a very rough patch to go with a prolonged heater. You will always find the true character of someone when times are tough, rather than when times are good so don’t let it bother you.
We’ve been pretty consistent through the first two months of the season, limiting losing streaks and throwing in the odd hot streak but it always amazes me when I get the odd message on Twitter from someone saying how cold my picks have been lately, like they think winning every night is an expected privilege. We’re still coming off a winning week and have had a few tough days to begin this week but it’s really nothing to get all worked up over. I’ve learned how to shrug comments like that off but my only piece of advice to those who think like that is it’s just like real life. You win some and you lose some and you just hope to minimize the bad and maximize the good. No one goes through life with constant good times and neither does anyone who invests in the sports market.
We treaded water for a couple of weeks in November before a hot streak hit and finished with a profit of over 15 units so hopefully we can ride out this tough stretch with minimal losses until we start seeing things a bit better. Until then we’ll slow down a little and err on the cautious side, although this board today seems to be presenting some value.
I was expecting a quiet day but the two late openers this morning are badly mispriced and I expect they’ll jump once limits raise, so let’s try and get this up before that happens.
CALGARY FLAMES @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Projected Goaltenders
Calgary – Mike Smith (confirmed)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (confirmed)
Injury Report
Calgary – Versteeg (out), Backlund (likely)
Toronto – Bozak (likely)
The Calgary Flames completed a disappointing 1-3-0 homestand with a 5-2 loss to Philadelphia on Monday that has caused a bit of panic with fans for the first time this season. Losing to a team on a ten-game losing streak will do that.
The Flames have been either hot or cold this year it seems with very little consistent play. Hot, when Mike Smith or the top line is rolling, or cold when they’re not. Secondary scoring continues to be an issue and the defense in front of Smith is not playing as well as they were expected. Calgary just gave up 16 goals on their four game homestand and overall they’ve allowed the seventh most goals in the league and almost half a goal more per game than last year.
Travis Hamonic was supposed to be the missing piece to round out one of the best top-four in the league but he was overvalued when he left the Islanders and fans and beginning to see this for themselves. Hamonic has never been great at driving possession and doesn’t do enough offensively to make up for his defensive gaffes this year. Unfortunately, he’s still the best option in the top-four for the Flames as the third-pair has been a wasteland. Michael Stone, Brett Kulak and Matt Bartkowski have a Relative Corsi For % of -5.6, -4.5 and -8.6, respectively, meaning the opposition are controlling the puck way more often when these guys are on the ice compared to when they’re not.
The same can be said for almost the entirety of their bottom-six with Curtis Lazar, Troy Bouwer, Kris Versteeg, Mark Jankowski, Matt Stajan and Sam Bennett getting destroyed while on the ice and just not doing enough to help the team win.
That all being said, Calgary is still 14-12-1 and just one point out of a playoff spot so there’s still time to turn things around but they’re going to need a better team effort to pass teams like San Jose and Vancouver ahead of them.
Second-line center Mikael Backlund was absent from Tuesday’s practice with an illness but he did travel with the team to Toronto. We’ll want to make sure he’s okay for tonight. The Flames play in Montreal tomorrow and Gulutzan said he hasn’t decided how he’ll split the goaltending duties between Mike Smith and David Rittich but I would expect Smith to go tonight. [UPDATE: Smith is confirmed]
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been off since Saturday night’s 2-1 loss at Vancouver and will try to snap a two game home losing streak tonight. Toronto defeated Calgary 4-1 just a week ago in a game they controlled throughout.
The Leafs have been playing a bit better defensively lately as they seem to be doing a better job at keeping shots to the outside and helping out Frederik Andersen more. When things are going well there usually isn’t as much to talk about and Mike Babcock had a little fun with reporters yesterday suggesting it’s been too quiet lately and they should stir up some big rumors.
The Leafs seem pretty loose and relaxed but one player who hasn’t had much fun the past few days is Tyler Bozak. After missing Saturday’s game with a bad bout of food poisoning, he’s spent the past few days mostly throwing up and missed Monday’s practice. Bozak was back on the ice yesterday and did hint that he should be good to go tonight with another day of proper nutrition and hydration. William Nylander would slide over to center if he can’t go, but I expect he’ll be fine and created my line with Bozak in the lineup.
This line opened a shade on the high side but has come down a few pennies overnight to the current number. As of now, there isn’t enough value to play either side here so we’ll likely be sitting this one out. [UPDATE: A morning move on Toronto after my writing has given us value on Calgary so we’ll be playing the Flames tonight]
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Projected Goaltenders
Chicago – Anton Forsberg (confirmed)
Washington – Braden Holtby (confirmed)
Injury Report
Chicago – Hossa (out)
Washington – Burakovsky (doubtful), Oshie (doubtful)
The Chicago Blackhawks have dropped four straight games as they’ve been on a really rough travel schedule of late. The Hawks have alternated single away and home games for the past six games and that can really mess your body clock up. To make matters more difficult, those six games were played over just nine days.
Chicago dropped a 3-1 decision to Los Angeles on Sunday and while they finally had a couple of consecutive days off, they’ll continue this stretch by hitting the road for another single game here before finally opening a three game homestand on Friday.
Joel Quenneville has pushed the panic button a couple of times already this season and it seems he blew the button up in yesterday’s practice. The Hawks will have all new lines for tonight’s game, starting with a new top line of Jonathan Toews, Ryan Hartman and John Hayden. That’s a pretty serious shift from where the Hawks were previously.
The new second line will feature Brandon Saad alongside Patrick Kane and Artem Anisimov. The third line will see Nick Schmaltz back at center between grinder Lance Bouma and rookie Alex DeBrincat. While the new fourth line sees Patrick Sharp with Tommy Wingels and 18-games-without-a-goal Richard Panik.
What the flying #%$@?? I’m all for a shakeup to try and get some guys going but this just looks awful. DeBrincat has ten goals over his last 15 games and while I know Quenneville wants to continue shielding him from the opponent’s top defensive pair, I’d love to see him on the top line with Toews.
The Hawks have also had to deal with the loss of All-Star goaltender Corey Crawford. Anton Forsberg will get the start again tonight but Crawford has shown good progress as he’s scheduled to get back on the ice today and could return for Friday’s game.
The Washington Capitals continue to dominate on home ice after Monday’s 4-1 win over San Jose. The Capitals have won nine of their last 11 games at Capital One Arena and will have two more chances to continue climbing the Metro standings here before hitting the road for six of their next eight.
Washington’s top line has been on fire lately since Barry Trotz reunited Alex Ovechkin with Nicklas Backstrom but the new second line of T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov and rookie Jakub Vrana have also caught fire. That second line is expected to be without Oshie tonight after having his head crushed into the glass last game. Trotz said the winger is “very doubtful” for tonight and Alex Chiasson is expected to skate in his spot, although Brett Connolly will take Oshie’s spot on the powerplay.
Andre Burakovsky wasn’t expected to return until next week but that timetable may be pushed up with the loss of Oshie. Burakovsky’s thumb is healed and he’s almost ready to go but his timing has still been off in practice. It seems like he could play tonight if was needed but Trotz didn’t seem optimistic that would happen. Chandler Stephenson will return to the lineup tonight.
This line opened right where it should, in my opinion, but has seen a steep move to the Hawks side overnight and again this morning. It’s bounced back and forth a little bit since max limits opened but is currently just below where I have it. There isn’t enough value to get involved right now but we’ll keep an eye on it and if this drops a bit more I’ll have no issues with jumping on Washington again.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ EDMONTON OILERS
Projected Goaltenders
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott (confirmed)
Edmonton – Laurent Brossoit (confirmed)
Injury Report
Philadelphia – Gudas (out), Manning (out)
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Larsson (out), McDavid (probable)
The Philadelphia Flyers finally got the monkey off their back with a 5-2 win at Calgary on Monday night, snapping a ten-game losing streak while Brian Elliott got a measure of revenge on his former team by making 43 saves.
Dave Hakstol mixed up his lines in Monday’s game looking for anything that might work and that included finally splitting up his dominant top line. Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier were joined by Wayne Simmonds while Jakub Voracek was dropped to play with Valtteri Filppula and Michael Raffl. This new combination seemed to give the Flyers much better balance and they were able to sustain pressure from each line throughout the game.
Hakstol also shortened his bench in the third period as Travis Konecny didn’t see any ice-time and Nolan Patrick was only present for part of a five-minute powerplay after making a couple of mistakes.
It’s expected that Hakstol will keep these same combinations for tonight’s game.
The Edmonton Oilers have won three of their last four after a wild 7-5 victory at Calgary on Saturday. The Oilers built a 6-1 lead into the third period before some shaky goaltending by Laurent Brossoit allowed the Flames back into the game and the Oilers had to flip the switch again to hang on to a 7-5 win.
Brossoit will be back in net tonight as he’s received the vote of confidence from Todd McLellan but even the head coach admits the youngster’s confidence has been shaken. The goaltender seemed to be in pretty good spirits yesterday and was eager to get back on the ice to prove his worth.
Connor McDavid is dealing with another bout of illness as he missed practice again on Monday. McDavid has been battling against sickness on and off over the last couple weeks as a nasty bug hit the city of Edmonton and then made its rounds through the team. McDavid has managed to play in every game though and he’s expected to be good to go again tonight.
A player who won’t go tonight is defenseman Adam Larsson who is dealing with an undisclosed injury. McLellan said he isn’t progressing as well as hoped and had a setback on Monday and could be out a while longer.
Cam Talbot is recovering well and remains on schedule for a return sometime next week.
The Oilers picked up a couple of new players through waiver claims recently. Former Oiler defenseman Brandon Davidson was claimed from Montreal and should help on the blueline. He’s not expected to play tonight but is a nice addition and should help. Forward Nathan Walker was claimed from Washington and should help give the Oilers a bit more speed in their bottom-six which is a key component they seem to have lost.
The Oilers lost a close 2-1 game at Philly back in October and according to player interviews yesterday they haven’t forgot about it. They felt they should have had a win that night and are eager for the rematch. They’ll be better stocked this game as Leon Draisaitl and Drake Caggiula missed the previous meeting.
This line just opened quite short at -120 so it looks like we’ll be jumping on the Oilers if that line holds by the time I get this uploaded. [UPDATE: The Flyers put Michal Neuvirth and defenseman Brandon Manning on IR this morning so Elliott will be starting. My line was made with him in so this doesn’t change the above numbers]
OTTAWA SENATORS @ ANAHEIM DUCKS
Projected Goaltenders
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)
Anaheim – Ryan Miller (confirmed)
Injury Report
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Wideman (out), Borowiecki (out), Stone (questionable)
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Getzlaf (out), Lindholm (doubtful), Silfverberg (questionable)
The Ottawa Senators finally ended a seven-game losing skid with Friday’s 6-5 win over the Islanders just to go out and lay an egg of a game at Winnipeg on Sunday in an embarrassing 5-0 effort. Game three of the Senators six-game road trip moves south to the California gauntlet and Guy Boucher is making sure his team knows this isn’t a going to be a sunny vacation.
Boucher held an extended 80-minute practice last evening and apparently there was no shortage of strong language from the usually mild-mannered head coach. He wants a far better effort and a sense of urgency so the team performed grueling battle drills since they didn’t want to battle hard enough during the game. Bobby Ryan called it the hardest practice he’s been involved with since Boucher’s arrival.
Craig Anderson will be back in net tonight as Mike Condon was ineffective last game and the thought of going on a run with him quickly ended. Anderson played the final 27 minutes against the Jets and stopped all 27 shots he faced. It was the second consecutive game Ottawa’s starter was pulled early.
Mark Stone was dealing with an illness but sounds as if he should be okay. We’ll await an official confirmation later today.
The Anaheim Ducks only have one win to show for their six-game road trip but they did manage to secure five of a possible 12 points by forcing three games to extra time. The tough trip ended last night with a 4-3 shootout loss at Vegas in a game they should consider lucky to have stolen a point. The Ducks did hold a 3-2 lead into the final five minutes but Vegas clearly controlled play throughout and were the better team. John Gibson’s 40 saves kept the Ducks close. It was actually the third straight game where Anaheim either held a lead or was tied in the final few minutes yet were unable to earn any victories.
Ryan Miller will go tonight on the back-to-back and he’s been excellent this season stopping 176 of 188 shots for a .936 save percentage in seven games (five starts).
Hampus Lindholm sounds like he’ll be doubtful again tonight but Jacob Silfverberg might return to the lineup. We’ll have to wait for an update later today.
This line opened quite short, in my opinion, which shouldn’t be a surprise considering my numbers for recent Anaheim games. The Ducks are through their block of Hell games though so I’m okay with getting involved with them again here. Neither team will hold a morning skate so announcements on Stone, Silfverberg and Lindholm will likely come later in the day but regardless we have enough value to play the home side.
-CHART EXPLANATION-
While I appreciate those of you who take the time to read the whole thing (there’s good info throughout!), the below chart is going to be your key each morning and hopefully it will be easy enough to follow (and hopefully I can explain it well).
Take a quick peek at the chart below. The first column is the rotation number found at the sportsbook for each game. For most of you this probably isn’t important but based on my past experience I know for a few it will be helpful. The second column is obviously each matchup for the night. The third column is the most important and I’ll come back to that in a moment.
The fourth column is the Opener which are the odds each game opened at the offshore sportsbook. I do most of my betting at Pinnacle but since that is unavailable to most Americans I’m going to be quoting odds from BetOnline who, in my opinion, are the most similar to Pinnacle odds for American bettors. It’s always good to have accounts at multiple books anyway so you can take advantage of price discrepancies.
The good thing about how I’m setting this up is it doesn’t matter where you bet your games at, you’re going to be able to know what number is okay to bet and at what point it’s no longer good. If you’re with a local who shades your lines or whatever, you might not always get to bet the same games each day, but you should never have to worry about getting a bad number or making a bad bet and hopefully that’s extremely helpful to you.
The fifth column is the current odds listed at BetOnline as of whatever time is listed below the chart. The last column is what I’m betting for the day and is likely the only column some of you will look at each day. And that’s fine, whatever works best for you, but our goal here is to not just give you a generic pick but rather help you understand the numbers a bit better. This is my first time sharing my info in such a public manner and I’m generally an impatient teacher but I’ll try and help you out as much as possible as we go along.
Back to the third column, “My Line Low/High Cut-off”. This is my current line on each game which I’ve carefully crafted. Rather than it being a single number, my process creates a varying range of where the line should fall when the market closes. If an opener is higher or lower than my range, I can usually count on the line moving toward my cut-off.
If the “Current” odds fall outside my range, then it’s a game we can bet on. If it falls inside the range, the game is a pass for me. Now, while any game that falls even 1 cent outside the range is technically open for a bet, my general rule is to only bet a game that is 8 cents or more outside the range. The higher the current odds are outside my range, the higher the edge is and chance of success.