NHL Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 2nd, 2017

NHL Knowledge

Las Vegas lost its last two games 6-3/6-4; they’re 8-3 in their first NHL season, 2-2 on the road. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Boston lost 3-1 in Vegas October 15; they’ve lost three of last four games, with all there losses in OT/SO. Bruins split their six home games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.

Islanders won three of last four games with Washington; under is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. New York lost three of last five games in this building. Islanders won five of their last six games; they split their last six away games- their last six games went over the total. Caps lost seven of their last ten games; they were outscored 9-3 in losing their last three home games. (under 3-0).

Rangers won four of last five games with Tampa Bay; road team won 7 of last 10 series games. New York won four of last five visits to Tampa Bay. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Rangers are 3-2 in their last five games but are 0-3 on road. Over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Lightning won eight of last ten games, four of last five at home- under is 3-1 in their last four home games.

Florida won five of last seven games with Columbus; home side won last five series games. Blue Jackets lost their last four games in this building. Columbus won three of its last four games, both overall and on road. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Panthers lost six of their last eight games, three of last four at home. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.

Detroit won seven of last nine games with Ottawa; they won four of last six visits to Ottawa. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Red Wings won last two games after a 6-game skid; they lost three of last four road games. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Senators lost five of their last seven games, six of which were at home. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Blues are 6-4 in their last ten games with Philly; Flyers lost four of their last five games in this building. Three of last four series games went over. Philly lost four of its last five games (over 3-1-1); they lost three of last four road games. St Louis won its last four games, outscoring opponents 15-6; they’re 5-0 at home this season. Over is 3-1 in their last four home games.

Minnesota won its last five games with Montreal; over is 6-2-2 in last ten series games. Canadiens lost their last four visits to the Twin Cities. Montreal won three of last four games overall, but lost four of last five road games. Over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Wild is 4-6 to start season, 2-3 at home. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Winnipeg won its last four games with Dallas; over is 7-2 in last nine series games. Dallas Stars lost their last three visits to Manitoba. Stars won six of their last eight games; they split their last six road games. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Winnipeg won six of its last nine games, three of last four at home. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Calgary won its last four games with Pittsburgh (over 3-1), last two in SO’s; Penguins lost 5-2/4-3so in their last two games in the Saddledome. Pittsburgh won six of last nine games, but lost three of last four on road. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Flames lost four of their last six games overall (under 4-1-1), four of last five home games.

Home side won eight of last ten Carolina-Colorado games; Hurricanes lost four of last five games in Denver. Under is 4-0-1 in last five series games. Carolina lost four of its last five games (over 4-1) but won three of last four on road. Avalanche lost four of last six games overall but won four of last five at home. Last four Colorado games went over the total.

Buffalo won six of last eight games with Arizona (under 5-3); they’re 4-1 in last five visits to Phoenix. Sabres are 3-7 in their last ten games, losing four of last six road games. Four of their last six games went over the total. Arizona is 1-12 to start the season, 0-5 at home; over is 8-1-1 in their last ten games. Coyotes’ only win came in overtime.

Kings won three of last four games with Toronto, but lost 3-2 in Toronto 10 days ago; under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. Maple Leafs were outscored were outscored 7-3 in losing their last three games in Staples Center. Toronto lost three of last four games overall; they’re 3-2 in their last five road games. LA won seven of its last nine games; four of their last five stayed under the total. Kings won their last three home games.

Armadillosports.com

NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com

MORNING LINE REPORT

Have you ever had one of those runs where it feels like you should just play everything on the board you like, regardless of the number? Well, that’s what it’s felt like here lately as we added another 2-0 night to our season but it kind of felt like it could have been so much more. I mentioned yesterday how much I loved the Leafs and expected to fire on them once a line was open. The number came out a bit higher than I had hoped for and I hesitated to pull the trigger. Within an hour it had jumped another ten cents and I never could fire on a number that really held no value. We also would have had winners with Chicago and Pittsburgh last night but the numbers never fully got into a range to fire on.

And that’s okay. It’s a long season and there will be plenty of more games ahead so you can’t beat yourself up over what could have been. If you start thinking about how you wished you had bet on this game or hadn’t have bet on that game take my word from experience, it will consume you. The worst thing to do is dwell on “what if” as it could affect your decisions for the next day.

That’s why sports investing is so difficult. It’s against all human nature to separate our emotions from anything we’re passionate about but you kind of need to be a robot in that sense. If you’re just betting recreationally for fun then it’s okay to get emotionally invested as that’s part of the fun and thrill of gambling. But if you’re serious about building a bankroll and making a second income – or maybe even a full-time income – you need to treat sports betting as an investment and like a business.

So don’t worry about what “could have been” and focus on “what’s next” and that’s probable a good life lesson in general.
We have a full card with 12 games tonight and there looks like we’ll be on a number of plays so to make sure I get this out early enough before lines start to move, let’s attack today with rapid fire bullet form.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS @ BOSTON BRUINS

Projected Goaltenders
Vegas – Maxime Lagace (probable)
Boston – Tuukka Rask (probable)

Injury Report
Vegas – no significant injuries (other than goalies)
Boston – Spooner (out), Krejci (out), Backes (out), McQuaid (out)

The Vegas Golden Knights have dropped the first two games of a brutal six game, nine day road trip.
Blew a 4-2 third period lead against the Rangers on Tuesday night. Were flat-footed and standing around a lot.
Marc-Andre Fleury continues to be with the team on this road trip but has not been medically cleared to play and has not skated with the team. Still no timetable for return.

Malcolm Subban is still nursing a right groin pull and is likely at least two weeks away.

The Boston Bruins open a three game homestand after dropping a 4-3 shootout at Columbus on Monday.

The Bruins continue to deal with ups and downs in the injury department. The latest is David Backes who will require surgery to remove a portion of his colon and miss about eight weeks.

David Krejci is ruled out for tonight with back spasms and is doubtful for Saturday, as well.

Tuukka Rask is expected to start with Anton Khudobin dealing with a minor ailment. Zane McIntyre was recalled again to serve as the backup.

Boston’s top-line of Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak is one of the very best in the league. After that, it looks like a Providence Bruins lineup with the next three lines consisting of Debrusk-Nash-Schaller, Heinen-Szwarz-Bjork, Beleskey-Kuraly-Vatrano. At least the defense is healthy.

If Vegas is going to win a game on this daunting road trip then this feels like the one. Unfortunately, my number for this game is higher than I hoped. I’d expect some Vegas money today which will likely create some value on the Bruins but I don’t have much interest in laying the juice here. I’llre-visit this one later but it’s likely to be a pass.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak (confirmed)
Washington – Braden Holtby (probable)

Injury Report
NY Islanders – no significant injuries
Washington – Burakovsky (out), Connolly (doubtful), Niskanen (out)

The New York Islanders have won two in a row and five of six after Monday’s 6-3 come from behind win over Vegas.
The Islanders offense is in high gear having scored 30 goals over their last six games, including at least four goals in all six.

John Tavares is on fire with nine goals in his last five games.

Weight confirmed Halak will start in net. He’s given up exactly three goals in six of his seven starts but has won four straight.

The Washington Capitals finished a disappointing 1-2-0 trip through Western Canada with Sunday’s 2-1 loss at Calgary.
Lack of depth continues to be a problem and the overall skill level from last season isn’t as high. The Capitals are regularly losing the possession battle which has led to the team taking more penalties.

Washington has allowed the first goal in seven straight games and have allowed at least 36 shots in seven straight.
Brett Connolly is still day-to-day with a concussion and wasn’t able to skate on Tuesday. They’ll see if he can skate today but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be able to play tonight.

Matt Niskanen is eligible to return on Tuesday but has been unable to join the team in practice yet.

The Capitals continue to be priced too high on most nights and we’ve had a lot of success with their games. The inexperienced defense of Washington might be in over their head tonight with the red-hot Islanders in town so we’ll happily jump on the road side here as the Caps are overpriced once again. The Isles are good to play down to +122.

NEW YORK RANGERS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Projected Goaltenders
NY Rangers – Henrik Lundqvist (likely)
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy/Peter Budaj (unknown)

Injury Report
NY Rangers – McDonagh (probable)
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries

The New York Rangers scored four unanswered goals in the third period on Tuesday to defeat Vegas 6-4.
It would be nice to think the Rangers figured something out and could build on that third period but their goals all came more as a result of Vegas just standing around. It was a nice comeback but Vegas looked really bad more than the Rangers looked good.

The Rangers are 0-3-0 on the road but were actually a much better road team than they were at home last year, posting a 27-12-2 away record.

Ryan McDonagh missed Wednesday’s practice but is expected to play tonight.

The Tampa Bay Lightning continue to be the talk of the NHL after Monday’s 8-5 win at Florida but there’s reason to be cautious with the red-hot Bolts.

Tampa’s underlying numbers are closer to average than top of the pack as one might expect given their early record. Vasilevskiy has been an X-factor and set a new franchise record with his ninth consecutive victory last game.

I’m sure this is going to be an unpopular pick tonight but I think the Lightning are priced too high here. It’s a big ugly road dog but we’re hoping the road trip will be good for the Rangers and they’ll come out barking tonight. The Rangers are good down to +149.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS @ FLORIDA PANTHERS

Projected Goaltenders
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky (likely)
Florida – James Reimer/Antti Niemi (unknown)

Injury Report
Columbus – Atkinson (out), Carlsson (questionable)
Florida – no significant injuries

The Columbus Blue Jackets open a three game road trip tonight after a 4-3 shootout victory over Boston on Monday.
Cam Atkinson did not travel with the team and will be out tonight with a lower body injury.

Defenseman Gabriel Carlsson is near a return. He practiced for the second straight day and is day-to-day.

The Florida Panthers have dropped two of the first three on this five game homestand after Monday’s 8-5 loss to Tampa Bay.
Aaron Ekblad accused the team of lacking “passion” and wants the team to play tougher.

Scoring depth is still an issue as goals have been hard to come by outside the top line of Huberdeau, Barkov and Dadonov.
Florida has allowed 3.91 goals per game, the highest in the league mostly thanks to the NHL’s worst penalty killing unit so Wednesday’s practice was spent entirely focusing on defense.

I would look at Florida or nothing here but as of right now this line looks to be priced about right. If Columbus takes some money this morning I would be comfortable jumping on the Panthers as a home underdog. Our target price is Florida +111 as long as Reimer starts in net.

DETROIT RED WINGS @ OTTAWA SENATORS

Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (confirmed)
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)

Injury Report
Detroit – DeKeyser (out)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Ryan (out), Borowiecki (out)

The Detroit Red Wings have won two in a row after losing six straight after Tuesday’s 5-3 win over Arizona.
Detroit begins a four game Canadian road trip tonight.

The Ottawa Senators have lost two straight after Monday’s 8-3 loss to Montreal.

Ottawa has won just two games in eight tries on home ice and desperately needs to bank some points in these next two games before heading to Sweden for five days for a pair of games against the Avalanche.

Craig Anderson will start in net after allowing six goals on just 15 shots Monday before being pulled. Expect a strong bounce back from him tonight.

Kyle Turris will return from a viral infection after missing three games and play tonight.

This line opened about where it should but has dropped significantly enough overnight to put value on Ottawa. This is a good spot for the Sens and we’ll confidently back them up to -151.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES

Projected Goaltenders
Philadelphia – Michal Neuvirth (probable)
St. Louis – Jake Allen/Carter Hutton (unknown)

Injury Report
Philadelphia – Patrick (out), MacDonald (out), Gostisbehere (out), Gudas (questionable)
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)

The Philadelphia Flyers lost for the fourth time in five games with last night’s 3-0 shutout to Chicago.

The Flyers were actually much better last night than in previous games as they dominated possession at 5-on-5 but couldn’t solve the red-hot Corey Crawford who made 36 saves.

Radko Gudas was lost after an inadvertent elbow from Brandon Saad in the first period and did not return. His status is questionable for tonight.

With the Flyers already playing three rookie defenseman and being cut down to just five d-men after the Gudas injury, Ivan Provorov became a workhorse and played an eye-popping 29:51. Not ideal with the team playing a back-to-back tonight. If Gudas can’t go the Flyers will have four rookie defensemen in the lineup.

The St. Louis Blues are a perfect 5-0-0 on home ice after Monday’s solid 4-2 win over Los Angeles.

Brayden Schenn will play against the team he spent six seasons with for the first time. He’ll no doubt be looking to stick it to them after the team drafted Nolan Patrick and felt he was expendable. Schenn was known as a powerplay specialist but is off to a better than expected start with the Blues and has shown a more complete all-around game, compiling three goals and eight assists in 13 games (and only three powerplay points).

This line looks priced right but I would look at St. Louis or nothing here. The Flyers are in a really tough spot on the back-to-back and their defense being pressed into extra minutes last night. My line is with Gudas out but there’s still not enough value for me to fire on the Blues. We’ll see if anyone likes the Flyers today and if the line drops we’d be more than happy to add the Blues tonight.

MONTREAL CANADIENS @ MINNESOTA WILD

Projected Goaltenders
Montreal – Carey Price (confirmed)
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (probable)

Injury Report
Montreal – Hemsky (out), Schlemko (out), Shaw (probable)
Minnesota – Parise (out), Coyle (out)

The Montreal Canadiens are enjoying the benefits of positive regression after Monday’s 8-3 win at Ottawa. It was the third time in four game the Habs have scored at least five goals.

Jonathan Drouin has looked much better recently since Max Pacioretty dropped to the second line. It’s possible the two just weren’t able to develop the chemistry hoped for. Artturi Lehkonen and Drouin have looked much better together.

Pacioretty has also looked better since dropping to the second line with three goals in the last four games and is suddenly tied for the team lead with four goals.

Andrew Shaw missed practice with the flu but Julien expects him to be in the lineup tonight. If he can’t play then Jacob De La Rose will enter the lineup.

The Minnesota Wild have split the first four games on their six game homestand after Tuesday’s 2-1 loss to Winnipeg.

Devan Dubnyk should be back in goal tonight after Alex Stalock played very well on Tuesday. Dubnyk has struggled this season with just a .905 save percentage. He’s been very good stopping the high danger shots but he’s let in a few too many that he normally would save.

Montreal continues to be undervalued so we’ll continue riding them for the time being. This line was more attractive when it opened but money on Montreal has brought it down some overnight. There’s still a bit of value to be had here and the Canadiens are good to play down to +118.

DALLAS STARS @ WINNIPEG JETS

Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (confirmed)

Injury Report
Dallas – Hanzal (out), Johns (out)
Winnipeg – Perreault (out), Lowry (out)

The Dallas Stars have won two straight after Monday’s 2-1 overtime win at Vancouver and will wrap up a five game road trip tonight.

Martin Hanzal will miss his second consecutive game tonight due to a lower body injury. Promising Stars prospect Jason Dickinson has been called up from Texas and will play. Dickinson leads his AHL team with six goals in nine games and brings size and speed to the lineup.

The Winnipeg Jets continue to ride the hot goaltending of Connor Hellebuyck after Tuesday’s 2-1 win at Minnesota who is now 6-0-1 with a .940 save percentage.

The Jets are off to their second best start in franchise history since relocating from Atlanta at 6-3-2 and they’ve done it against quality competition. Nine of the Jets 11 opponents were playoff teams a year ago.

Jacob Trouba and Josh Morrissey are starting to become a very effective shutdown pair on defense and will be looked upon again tonight to slow down Seguin and Benn.

My numbers really like the Dallas Stars this year and still hate the Winnipeg Jets so I wasn’t surprised to see Dallas outputted as such a large favorite for me here. I think my number is likely too high here but even with some adjustments I still can’t get down to where the current market sits, so we’ll play Dallas tonight as a road dog where I think they should be favored.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ CALGARY FLAMES

Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Tristan Jarry (probable)
Calgary – Mike Smith/Eddie Lack (unknown)

Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Schultz (out), Hunwick (out)
Calgary – Jagr (out)

No line available here yet so I’ll update any play here on Twitter. Tristan Jarry is expected to get his first start of the season after Matt Murray carried the Pens to a 3-2 win at Edmonton last night.

CAROLINA HURRICANES @ COLORADO AVALANCHE

Projected Goaltenders
Carolina – Scott Darling/Cam Ward (unknown)
Colorado – Semyon Varlamov (confirmed)

Injury Report
Carolina – Pesce (out), Stempniak (doubtful), Teravainen (probable)
Colorado – Jost (out), Compher (out), Wilson (out), Kerfoot (questionable)

There’s value on Carolina tonight at the current number but I’m likely to pass on this one as I just don’t like the spot for them. Brett Pesce, half of their dominant shutdown pair on defense is out with a concussion, as well. If Darling is confirmed in net I may re-visit this one later but as of right now I’m passing here.

BUFFALO SABRES @ ARIZONA COYOTES

Projected Goaltenders
Buffalo – Robin Lehner (likely)
Arizona – Antti Raanta/Scott Wedgewood (unknown)

Injury Report
Buffalo – Josefson (out), Bogosian (out), Beaulieu (out)
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Hjalmarsson (doubtful)

This line opened at the right number and remains in the right spot. Not much interest here until we know whether Antti Raanta will be back in net tonight.

Louis Domingue was recalled yesterday in a paper move for cap reasons but Tocchet said either Raanta or Wedgewood would start. Hjalmarsson is day-to-day but Tocchet doesn’t expect him to play the rest of this week.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ LOS ANGELES KINGS

Projected Goaltenders
Toronto – Curtis McElhinney (probable)
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (likely)

Injury Report
Toronto – no significant injuries
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out), Clifford (out)

No line here yet so another one I’ll update on Twitter. Curtis McElhinney is expected to start with the Leafs wrapping up a back-to-back. One lineup change confirmed by Babcock after last night’s game is Roman Polak will be back in the lineup tonight.

This is a tough spot for the Leafs so I’ll be looking at Kings or nothing here tonight.