NHL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 19th, 2017

NHL Knowledge

Flyers won four of last six games with Nashville; over is 3-1 in last four series games. Predators are 2-3 in last five visits to Philly. Nashville won 3 of its last 4 games but they’re 0-3 on road, scoring 4 goals in 3 games. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Philly won three of its last four games; they won 5-1/8-2 in their only two home games. Flyers’ last three games went over.

Bruins won 3 of last 4 games with Vancouver; road team won 4 of last 5 series games. Canucks are 2-3 in last five visits here- last three series games went over. Vancouver lost 3 of last 4 games; they won 3-0 in Ottawa in their only road game. Under is 3-2 in Canuck games so far this month. Boston lost 3 of its last 4 games (over 3-2); they split their only two home games.

Islanders won 7 of their last 8 games with the Rangers; over is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Isles are 3-1 in their last four visits to Manhattan. Rangers lost their last four games; they’re 1-6 this season. Blueshirts lost four of their first five home games. Islanders lost 3 of their last 4 games (under 4-0); they’re 1-3 on road, scoring total of 7 goals.

Blue Jackets won their last three games with Tampa Bay; road team won six of last nine series games. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games. Lightning won 3 of its last 4 visits to Ohio. Tampa Bay won 4 of tis last 5 games but is 1-2 on road; over is 5-2 in their games this season. Columbus won its last four games overall; they allowed one goal in winning their two home games (under 2-0).

Ottawa won its last three games with the Devils; road team won six of last nine series games. Devils won 3 of their last 4 visits to Ottawa. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games. Devils won 5 of their first 6 games; they’re 3-0 on road, allowing 7 goals. Over is 4-1 in their last five games. Senators won 3 of their last 4 games; they’re 0-3 at home. Road team won all six of their games this season.

Chicago is 7-3 in its last ten games with Edmonton; under is 3-1 in last four meetings. Oilers lost four of their last five visits to the Windy City. Oilers were outscored 19-8 in losing their last four games, last three of which went over total. Edmonton lost its only road game 3-2 in Vancouver. Blackhawks is off to a 5-2 start after winning in St Louis last nite; Chicago is 3-1 at home. Over is 4-2 in their games this season.

Calgary won six of its last nine games with Carolina; Hurricanes lost four of last five games in the Saddledome. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Carolina split its first four games this season (over 2-2), splitting their two road games. Flames won four of their last five games (over 4-1); they split their two home games (over 2-0).

Blues won six of last seven games with Colorado; under is 3-1 in last four. St Louis won three of its last four visits to Denver. Blues lost their last three games, scoring 5 goals; over is 4-3 in their last seven games- they’re 3-2 on the road. Avalanche lost last two games but is 4-3 to start season, winning both their home games; under is 4-1 in their last five games.

Home side won 8 of last 9 Dallas-Arizona games; under is 5-1 in last six series games. Dallas Stars split last four visits here- they’re 3-1 in last four games but are 0-2 on road, losing 4-1/4-2. Last three Dallas games stayed under total. Coyotes were outscored 25-13 in their 0-6 start, with three home losses and two losses to expansion Las Vegas. Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

Armadillosports.com

NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com

MORNING LINE REPORT

We ended up passing on yesterday’s small card and that worked out in our favor as there was potentially some value on Detroit and Montreal but both ended up losing. I just didn’t like going against Toronto last night after I thought more about it and I was actually hoping to find value on Los Angeles and play them, as that was my preferred side.

While some modellers will play every game with any edge their computer tells them too, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with holding a little discretion from time to time. Computer models have their limits and while they do help take the psychology and emotion out of making a decision, sometimes there’s just an intangible it can’t calculate. That being said, the human brain can also get you into trouble if you overthink things, so it’s never wise to just make bets on who you think is going to win.

There’s not much value on today’s card but we only have five of nine games with open lines at the moment. Read below for how I’m looking to approach the others and expect a couple of play additions tweeted out later this morning.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS @ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Projected Goaltenders
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (likely)
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott/Michal Neuvirth (unknown)

Injury Report
Nashville – Ellis (out), Weber (out), Bonino (out)
Philadelphia – Simmonds (questionable)

Nashville hits the road for a short two game road trip after Tuesday’s 4-1 win against Colorado. Roman Josi returned after missing three games but center Nick Bonino missed that game and won’t be with the team this weekend as Bonino’s agent said he’s going to be out a couple of weeks. Calle Jarnkrok slid up to the second line spot while Frederick Gaudreau was called up and played the fourth line center. This is a tough blow for the Preds but Gaudreau has performed well in his limited NHL experience and deserves to be up on the roster. I wouldn’t even mind seeing him given a chance on that second line and drop Jarnkrok down. As it is right now, Bonino out of the lineup is a downgrade for the Preds but with the addition of Gaudreau it’s not tremendously significant.

On Philly’s side, they might be missing someone of much more significance as leading goal scorer Wayne Simmonds left Tuesday night’s win over Florida midway through the third period with a lower body injury. It’s believed to be a tweaked groin and not overly serious but we won’t get more of an update on his status until later this morning. If he can’t go look for Jori Lehtera to make his Flyers debut after being a healthy scratch all season.

I still don’t know what to think of this Flyers team and I can comfortably say they are this year’s biggest enigma to me. Of all the teams off to a good start, part of me feels like Philadelphia is the one most likely to crash the soonest. Then another part of me thinks this is the team most likely to be a sleeper contender. It’s very confusing and I get a headache when I think about it, so for now I’m going to lay off their games until I get a better feel for them. If any Flyers fans want to reach out to me on Twitter and share their thoughts, that’d be great.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS @ BOSTON BRUINS

Projected Goaltenders
Vancouver – Anders Nilsson/Jacob Markstrom (unknown)
Boston – Anton Khudobin/Tuukka Rask (unknown)

Injury Report
Vancouver – Edler (out), Eriksson (out)
Boston – Spooner (out), Backes (probable), Bergeron (likely)

Anders Nilsson finally got his first start Tuesday night and promptly shutout the Ottawa Senators in a 3-0 win which cashed us a nice +175 play. The market moved against Vancouver when Nilsson was announced the starter but that’s an incorrect move, in my opinion. I’ve been waiting for Nilsson to get his chance as he’s one of the very few “backups” in the league who I have rated higher than the starter. It’s not that I think Nilsson is a great goaltender but I think he’s certainly better than Jacob Markstrom who continues to just spin his wheels. We’ll see if Green sticks with Nilsson tonight or if he goes back to Markstrom.

Another significant change early on has been the use of the Sedins. Last year, Henrik averaged 19:02 of ice-time and Daniel 18:23. Neither player has yet to play more than 17:49 in any single game this season and their average ice-time is down to just over 15 minutes, each. Green is using them in a more sheltered role almost like third-liners and it’s been effective as they have dominated possession early on. Now if they could just get Bo Horvat going. Horvat has two goals in five games but this was supposed to be his big breakout season where he took the reins but so far he’s been underwhelming. It’s still early but he needs to get going more.

The Boston Bruins have been off since Sunday’s 3-1 loss at Vegas and there’s all kinds of injury news to get to here. Let’s start with Tuukka Rask who left Wednesday’s practice after being bowled over by Anders Bjork and did not return. Rask has to be helped off the ice and the team hasn’t provided an update but it didn’t sound good. Hopefully he’s okay and able to play tonight but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Khudobin tonight.

Patrice Bergeron and David Backes returned to practice and have skated a couple of days in a row now. Bergeron was back in his usual top line spot between Marchand and Bjork but wore a non-contact jersey. Cassidy has been pretty adamant on saying he’s out before game days until yesterday where he said he’s not ruling him out.

Backes skated on the third line with no restrictions and should return tonight barring any overnight setback. Both players also lined up on the regular powerplay units so it’s looking like both could be in the lineup tonight.

One player who won’t be in the lineup is center Ryan Spooner who left Sunday’s game with a right groin abductor tear. Ouch. He’s supposed to be out 4-6 weeks. He’s been very underwhelming in Bergeron’s spot on the top line so I don’t think this much of a loss at all, especially considering who the Bruins called up on Wednesday. Kenny Agostino and Peter Cehlarik will suit up on the new fourth line tonight and should add some energy. Both players have torn up the AHL in Providence and should provide Boston with needed depth scoring.

No line here yet with the unknown goaltending situation but I’ll be very interested in where this one opens. My range above is with Bergeron and Backes back in the lineup and Khudobin in net. Anything under my range above and I’ll be jumping on the Bruins.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ NEW YORK RANGERS

Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak (confirmed)
NY Rangers – Henrik Lundqvist (likely)

Injury Report
NY Islanders – no significant injuries
NY Rangers – McDonagh (probable)

The Islanders wrap up a four game road trip back on the East Coast after a 1-2 trip in California. It’s always tough for teams playing that first game back off the western swing so proceed with caution if you like the Isles tonight.

Doug Weight’s club has been up and down in the early going but the powerplay has been a constant struggle as they are now 0-for-20 on the year. In an effort to change that fate, Weight will insert defenseman Ryan Pulock into the lineup tonight who probably should have been there all along. The Isles still don’t have a goal from their defense this year and Pulock’s big shot could change that tonight as he will also be on the top powerplay unit.

The New York Rangers continue to be one of the biggest early season disappointments dropping to 1-5-1 after a 5-4 overtime loss to Pittsburgh Tuesday night. The Rangers led by one in the final minute before a smart play by Sidney Crosby tied the game. Ryan McDonagh then coughed the puck up in overtime on an absolute brutal giveaway which sealed their fate. McDonagh was supposed to thrive this season escaping the handcuff of Dan Girardi but he’s been downright terrible thus far. He’s been so bad, in fact, that certain Rangers media members are actually talking about how much this team MISSES Girardi. Oh boy! It appears things have hit rock bottom in New York. Maybe a meeting with their cross-town rivals will wake them up but I won’t be betting on it.

We’ll want to keep an eye on McDonagh’s status this morning as he missed Wednesday’s practice. Vigneault called it a “maintenance day” and said he “should be good” for tonight but we’ll see at morning skate. He was probably just banished to the video room to watch all his mistakes on loop.

It looks like Islanders or nothing here based on the current number but I think we’re probably better off just sitting this one out.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING @ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

Projected Goaltenders
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely)
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky (probable)

Injury Report
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries
Columbus – Carlsson (out), Jenner (questionable)

Nikita Kucherov scored again in Tuesday night’s 5-4 shootout loss at New Jersey and now leads the league with 12 points through eight games. He’s really starting to make his case as early consideration for this year’s Hart Trophy and the +4000 ticket we’re sitting on certainly doesn’t mind.

The Lightning wrap up a three game road trip tonight and this will be a tricky spot for them with their fourth game in six nights.

Tampa Bay was swept by Columbus last season and Vasilevskiy gave up five goals in his only trip to Nationwide Arena, so I imagine he’ll have a bit of extra focus tonight looking to extract some revenge.

Columbus continues to roll along at 5-1-0 and now begin a four game homestand. Despite the hot start, my numbers aren’t quite as high on them yet and even with the tough schedule spot for the Bolts accounted into the line, this will be Tampa Bay or nothing tonight. My target price for the dog tonight is +119 and it’s currently +118 so we’ll see where this line moves later this morning and I may tweet out Tampa as a play.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ OTTAWA SENATORS

Projected Goaltenders
New Jersey – Cory Schneider/Keith Kinkaid (unknown)
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)

Injury Report
New Jersey – Zajac (out), Boyle (out)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Borowiecki (out)

The New Jersey Devils open a road-home back-to-back tonight in Ottawa. Hynes said Schneider and Kinkaid will split the two games but wouldn’t reveal who gets the start tonight so we’ll have to wait for the morning skate. My line is with Schneider in net and we would have a fair bit of value on the Devils tonight if that’s the case. If Kinkaid starts it’s borderline and we’ll see where the number is at that time.

Erik Karlsson made his season debut on Tuesday night and the Ottawa Senators suffered their first regulation loss of the season. Isn’t hockey strange? Karlsson actually looked pretty good logging 22:45 of ice-time and that number is expected to increase tonight.

The Senators continue a five game homestand but are 0-3 at the Canadian Tire Center and the pressure is building for that first win for the fans.

I was going to wait until Schneider was confirmed in net but I’m going to lock New Jersey in now as I do expect it to be him. If Kinkaid starts I’ll update what to do on Twitter. Our target price is New Jersey +130 or better with Schneider in net.

EDMONTON OILERS @ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

Projected Goaltenders
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (probable)
Chicago – Anton Forsberg (probable)

Injury Report
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Draisaitl (out), Caggiula (out)
Chicago – Hossa (out)

The Edmonton Oilers seemingly dominated another opponent on Tuesday night outshooting the Carolina Hurricanes 51-21 and winning the all-important shot attempts battle 82-40 but yet again walked away with a loss, falling 5-3.

It’s been a messy start for the projected Western Conference favorites by many as the team sits just 1-4-0 after dropping all three recent homestand games. Now they’ll head out on the road to Chicago, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Yikes.

Leon Draisaitl and Drake Caggiula did travel with the team for this trip but neither will play tonight although it’s possible one or both could be back for Saturday’s game.

Chicago plays the second half of their back-to-back tonight after tripping in St. Louis last night by a score of 5-2. The Hawks were never really in this one as the Blues carried a 3-0 lead into the third period. I mentioned in yesterday’s report how the Hawks were switching up their powerplay lines and both units managed to breakthrough with a couple of late goals. The game was 4-0 at the time with under six minutes to play so maybe the Blues weren’t as sharp as they’d normally be but it’s still a nice confidence booster moving forward.

No line here yet but with the Hawks on the back-to-back and Anton Forsberg expected to get the start in Chicago’s net, even with the Oilers injuries I’m expecting to see a bit of value on the road side here.

CAROLINA HURRICANES @ CALGARY FLAMES

Projected Goaltenders
Carolina – Scott Darling (probable)
Calgary – Mike Smith (confirmed)

Injury Report
Carolina – Stempniak (out), van Riemsdyk (probable)
Calgary – Ferland (probable)

The Carolina Hurricanes continue their four game road trip after improving their record to 2-1-1 with Tuesday’s 5-3 win in Edmonton. The Canes were badly out-chanced as I mentioned above but backup Cam Ward made 48 saves (seriously, Cam Ward made 48 saves! What a time to be alive). Jokes aside, I had mentioned in my Carolina season preview how Ward (one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL) might actually benefit this year by playing less in a backup role as he always seemed to play much better when he was fresh. If Tuesday’s game was an early indication, the Canes goaltending duo might be enough alone to vault them back into a playoff spot.

Those shot attempts against should get a boost tonight as defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk is expected to be activated today and return to the lineup after suffering a concussion in the season opener.

The Calgary Flames will also have reinforcements tonight as first line winger Micheal Ferland will return to action although he won’t slide back into his regular first line assignment. That spot will belong to the ageless wonder, Jaromir Jagr, who will finally get a chance to play alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. Ferland will take Jagr’s spot on the third line with Sam Bennett and Kris Versteeg.

Mike Smith will be in net and it’s expected to be an extra emotional night for him as the Flames will have some sort of in-game tribute to The Tragically Hip’s frontman Gord Downie, a Canadian icon and legend who lost his battle with brain cancer late Tuesday night. Smith grew up just a half-hour north of Downie’s hometown of Kingston, Ontario and said The Tragically Hip were a big part of his life (as they were every Canadian kid). Athletes usually rise to the occasion when they’re honoring family (and make no mistake, Gord Downie is part of everyone’s family here in Canada) so expect a big performance from Smith. If you’re into betting Team Totals I would look at Carolina Under tonight.

As for the side itself, this line is currently smack dab in the middle of my range so it doesn’t look like I’ll have a play here tonight, although I think Calgary is probably worth a look.

ST. LOUIS BLUES @ COLORADO AVALANCHE

Projected Goaltenders
St. Louis – Carter Hutton (probable)
Colorado – Jonathan Bernier (confirmed)

Injury Report
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)
Colorado – no significant injuries

The St. Louis Blues are coming off a huge rivalry victory over Chicago last night which saw Jaden Schwartz continue his hot start with a hat trick, giving him 11 points in seven games to open the season. Alex Steen made his season debut and logged just over 18 minutes.

Colorado is back home after a couple of tough divisional road losses where the offense sputtered putting up just one goal in each game. The Avs are 2-0 on home ice and have looked really good in the process with victories over Boston and Anaheim. With a healthy Varlamov back in net this season and the positive development of promising young players like Tyson Jost, J.T. Compher and Alex Kerfoot, the Avs look nothing like the historically bad version from a year ago.

Speaking of Jost, Bednar is giving the kid a promotion to the top line for tonight’s game in an effort to help energize Nathan MacKinnon and boost their 5-on-5 scoring chances. MacKinnon hasn’t been as aggressive with the puck as he’s known for and Jost’s aggressiveness should complement MacKinnon’s game well. It’s a move that was experimented with late in Tuesday’s game and netted positive effects. Sven Andrighetto will drop to the second line with Duchene and Yakupov.

Colorado is feeling a sense of urgency tonight to get those points back they just lost on the road. This is a tough spot for the Blues tonight traveling overnight from St. Louis to Denver. With the Blues on the back-to-back and Carter Hutton expected to be in net, our target price on Colorado here is +111 or better but I may slide on my rule a bit and look for Colorado at anything plus money.

DALLAS STARS @ ARIZONA COYOTES

Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Arizona – Adin Hill (confirmed)

Injury Report
Dallas – Honka (out)
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Perlini (out)

Dallas and Arizona will clash in a rematch from Tuesday night where the Stars defeated the Coyotes 3-1. It wasn’t a dominating performance by any means but showed yet again the Stars new focus on defense.

Adin Hill made his NHL debut and was pretty solid in net for Arizona and he’ll get the call again against Ben Bishop. One lineup change for Dallas tonight as defenseman Julius Honka will come out of the lineup in favor of Jamie Oleksiak. Hitchcock says Honka has done a good job but it’s just the nature of the situation with the Stars logjam on the blueline right now. There’s seven good defensemen (according to Hitchcock) and only six spots so he’ll continue rotating early in the season until he finds the best fit for later.

Keep an eye on Dallas game totals as we move forward. I think there’s public perception this is an over team once again but Hitchcock has them focused on the defensive end and when Ben Bishop is in net, he’s not giving up much. The last three Stars games have been lined at six goals and they’ve all been pretty easy unders.

The Coyotes are 0-5-1 and still the only winless team in the NHL but that changes tonight. I’ll calling for an Arizona win here and hopefully we’ll see some line value when it opens but I’m not expecting it. Our target is Arizona +152 or better but I may bend a little bit there. We’ll see where it opens.