NHL Betting News and Notes Tuesday, October 24th, 2017

NHL Knowledge

Ducks won eight of last nine games with Philly; 4 of last 7 series games went to OT. Over is 5-1-2 in last eight series games. Anaheim won their last four games in this building. Flyers won three of last four games, all at home; under is 4-4 in their games. Anaheim lost four of last six games; they lost 3-1 at Colorado in their only road game- under is 5-1 in their last six games.

Lightning won eight of last ten games with Carolina; over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Hurricanes lost their last five games in this building. Tampa Bay won six of its last seven games; they’re 5-0 at home. Over is 6-3 in their games this season. Carolina split its first six games; they’re 1-1 at home- both games went OT/SO. Over is 3-3 in their games this season.

Islanders won four of last six games with Arizona; last three series games stayed under total. Coyotes lost their last four visits to Brooklyn. Arizona is 0-8 this season; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Coyotes are 0-3 on the road. Islanders won three of last four games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. New York is 2-1 at home this season.

Penguins won five of their last six games with Edmonton; under is 3-1 in last four series games. Oilers lost four of their last five visits to Pittsburgh. Edmonton lost five of its last six games; under is 4-3 in their games this season- Oilers are 1-2 on road. Penguins won five of last seven games; their last five games all went over. Pittsburgh won both of its home games.

Canadiens won their last three games with Florida; over is 2-1-2 in last five series games here. Panthers won three of last four visits to Montreal. Florida lost three of its last four games; over is 6-1 in its games this month. Panthers are 1-3 on the road. Canadiens lost their last seven games, last four of which went over. Montreal is 0-2 at home this season.

Buffalo won its last three games with Detroit, all by one goal; under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Red Wings won three of last four visits to Buffalo. Detroit was outscored 17-9 in losing its last four games; they’re 3-2 on road. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Sabres are 2-7 this season, 0-3 at home. Over is 4-1 in their last five games.

Kings lost four of last five games with Ottawa, losing 5-3/2-1 in last two visits here. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Los Angeles won four of its last five games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Kings are 2-1 on the road. Senators won four of their last six games but they’re 1-4 at home; four of their last five games went over the total.

Vancouver/Minnesota split their last ten meetings; Canucks are 3-2 in their last five visits to Twin Cities. Over is 8-0-2 in last ten series games. Vancouver won three of last four games, all on the road; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Minnesota lost four of their six games; over is 5-0-1 in their games this year. Wild lost its only home game 5-4 in OT vs Columbus.

Flames won six of last nine games with Nashville; they won four of last five visits to Music City. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. Calgary lost three of last four games but they’ve won three in row on the road. Over is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Predators won four of last six games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Nashville is 3-0 at home this season.

Dallas Stars won their last five games with Colorado; over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Stars split their last four visits to Denver. Avalanche were outscored 11-5 in losing their last three games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Colorado is 2-1 at home. Dallas won its last four games; they’re 2-1 on road. Last couple Stars games went over the total.

Chicago is 2-3 in its last five games; over is 5-3-1 in their games this month. Blackhawks are 2-2 on the road. Las Vegas won its last three games, is 6-1 in his first NHL season (under 4-3)- they are 4-1 at home.

Armadillosports.com

NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com

MORNING LINE REPORT

We’ve got a full card again tonight with 11 games so let’s not waste any time on a lengthy intro today and get right into it. A ton of good info below with lots of interesting games tonight.

ANAHEIM DUCKS @ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Projected Goaltenders
Anaheim – John Gibson (probable)
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott/Michal Neuvirth (unknown)

Injury Report
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Vatanen (out), Fowler (out), Manson (probable)
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out)

The Anaheim Ducks got back in the win column with a 6-2 win over Montreal on Friday night but the cost was another injury to their blueline. Cam Fowler left the game with a serious knee injury and won’t be back for a while. Patrick Eaves will also miss the four game road trip as he was hospitalized in intensive care last week and has been diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome, a very rare disorder where your immune system attacks your nervous system and can often be deadly. Fortunately, doctors diagnosed Eaves early enough that he is expected to fully recover but he currently remains in hospital and his playing career will be on hold for now.

That’s a somber moment for the Ducks but their season must go on and there is some good news on other injuries. Defenseman Hampus Lindholm will make his season debut tonight and it can’t be undersold how important he is for this team as a premier shutdown defender. Lindholm is ready to go full tilt and won’t be on a minutes restriction tonight so expect him to get his usual 20+.

Ryan Getzlaf will also return to the ice tonight. He admitted rushing himself too soon when he tried to come back previously, played two games then missed three more. He says his lower body injury is better now and doesn’t expect any further setbacks.
Sami Vatanen won’t be back tonight but is close and we could see him return on this road trip. The same with backup goalie Ryan Miller. Josh Manson missed yesterday’s practice with the flu but is expected to be able to play tonight.

The Philadelphia Flyers will wrap up their five game homestand tonight which has been a successful 3-1-0 after Saturday’s 2-1 win over Edmonton. The Flyers also paid the price for a win with the loss of defenseman Andy MacDonald who will miss 4-6 weeks as a result of blocking a shot.

MacDonald has often been viewed as a weakness on the Flyers blueline but he was off to a solid start this season and as responsible as anyone on their backend for their good start. His short-term replacement will be Brandon Manning at least for tonight’s game. There’s a good chance Sam Morin will take this spot sooner than later but for tonight the Flyers blueline will be a little bit weaker with Manning. Jordan Weal and Taylor Leier are cleared to play tonight after both missing Saturday’s game with injuries.

No line available yet here but I would expect this to be Anaheim or nothing based on my number and I would be okay with playing the Ducks tonight. I’ll tweet out an update after we get a line.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING @ CAROLINA HURRICANES

Projected Goaltenders
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy (probable)
Carolina – Scott Darling (probable)

Injury Report
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries
Carolina – Stempniak (out)

The Tampa Bay Lightning made a statement Saturday night with a 7-1 pasting of the defending Stanley Cup champions. Sure, it was against Antti Niemi but it was still a nice statement to make. Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos continued to terrorize teams as the duo now co-lead the NHL in points with 17 apiece. Kucherov also leads the league in goals with ten while Stamkos leads the NHL with 14 assists.

The only big news for the Bolts is whether defenseman Mikhail Sergachev will suit up for his tenth game tonight as Yzerman has to make a decision whether to send the rookie back to juniors or burn one year of his entry-level deal. It’s a no-brainer really and Sergachev has done more than enough to solidify his spot on the big club and Yzerman has all but said this, as well. Sergachev has two points in each of his last three games including three goals. He now has eight points in nine games which is ironically one point more than Montreal’s leading scorer and the man he was traded for, Jonathan Drouin.

Carolina has taken a bit of overnight money to move from a tiny dog to a small favorite. It’s within my range and likely to stay there so we’ll pass on this one tonight.

ARIZONA COYOTES @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Louis Domingue/Adin Hill (unknown)
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak (confirmed)

Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Perlini (out)
NY Islanders – no significant injuries

The Arizona Coyotes are playing better lately but have still been unable to break through with their first win of the season after dropping a 4-2 contest to Chicago on Saturday. The Coyotes still have a way to go before approaching the NHL’s ultimate futility mark of a 15-game losing streak to begin a season, set by the New York Rangers in 1943-44. Now the team heads out onto the road for their first extended trip and that’s likely a good thing. With this being a very young team, a five game road trip will be beneficial for some team bonding.

Clayton Keller has been very impressive in his first season as he leads all rookies with six goals while showing great chemistry on the top line with Derek Stepan and Max Domi. The trio have scored 11 of Arizona’s 18 goals.

The New York Islanders have won back-to-back games for the first time this season and three of four after Saturday’s 5-3 win over San Jose. Not much to say about the Isles right now. They are an average team thus far and that’s about what they were expected to be.

This line opened right where it should so we’ll likely sit this one out.

EDMONTON OILERS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

Projected Goaltenders
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (probable)
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (confirmed)

Injury Report
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Draisaitl (likely), Caggiula (likely)
Pittsburgh – Rowney (out), Hunwick (out)

The Edmonton Oilers found themselves back in the loss column after Saturday’s 2-1 loss at Philadelphia. They continue a tough stretch of games here which sees them play the Penguins tonight, followed by the Stars, Capitals and then Pittsburgh again.
All eyes will be on Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby for this one but the Oilers will be most happy if they can see Leon Draisaitl make a return tonight. Draisaitl has missed the last four games with concussion symptoms but made it through a full practice on Monday without any issues and both he and McLellan are anticipating a return to the lineup. He still has to be cleared by the doctors though so we’ll see if that happens later today. Drake Caggiula is in the same boat after a full practice yesterday as he hopes to be cleared today, as well.

The Oilers had better correct their penalty killing problems tonight or try and stay out of the box altogether. The league’s 30th ranked unit could be in for a tough night against the Penguins second-best powerplay in the NHL.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are anxious to get back on the ice after Saturday’s lopsided 7-1 beating at the hands of Tampa Bay. It was the third tail end of a back-to-back for Pittsburgh already and backup Antti Niemi had started all three. He also got shelled in all three, giving up 16 total goals in 128 minutes which prompted the Pens to waive the struggling goaltender yesterday.

Pittsburgh called up Casey DeSmith to backup Matt Murray and he might get into a game with the Penguins playing two more back-to-backs over the next ten days. DeSmith was maybe a surprise call-up over Tristan Jarry who many feel has the future as an NHL starter but Sullivan said they want to continue to give Jarry consistent playing time so he can further develop. DeSmith was off to a hot start with Wilkes Barre/Scranton posting a 3-0 record with a 0.98 goals-against-average and .965 save percentage.

Third-line center Carter Rowney was placed on IR yesterday after leaving Saturday’s game with a hand injury. The Penguins swung a trade with the Red Wings to acquire Riley Sheahan who will take over Rowney’s spot.

This line opened a little short based on my numbers so we’re going to jump on the Penguins tonight. My line is with Draisaitl in the lineup but it would be a nice bonus if he has to sit out one more game.

FLORIDA PANTHERS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

Projected Goaltenders
Florida – James Reimer (confirmed)
Montreal – Carey Price (likely)

Injury Report
Florida – no significant injuries
Montreal – Schlemko (out), Hemsky (out)

The Florida Panthers snapped a three game losing streak with a convincing 4-1 win at Washington on Saturday behind a 41-save effort by James Reimer. It was Reimer’s first game since Luongo’s hand injury landed him on the IR. The earliest Luongo can return is Saturday so the crease will belong to Reimer for at least the next two games.

The Montreal Canadiens struggles continued as they dropped their seventh straight game with Saturday’s 6-2 loss at Anaheim. It was a tough trip through California again this year for Montreal as they were outscored 16-5. Six of their first eight games were on the road but now the Canadiens will return to the familiar confines of the Bell Centre for a three game homestand.

Defenseman Victor Mete has been one of the lone bright spots for the Canadiens and he will be in the lineup tonight which will be his tenth game and means the club will burn the first-year of his entry-level contract.

Alex Galchenyuk was moved back to the fourth line for Monday’s practice alongside a couple of new faces. Nikita Scherbak and Michael McCarron were recalled from Laval on Sunday after the team learned Ales Hemsky would be out for a bit after suffering a concussion in Friday’s game at Anaheim.

It certainly looks bleak for Habs fans at the moment but if you’re a fan of the advanced analytics (and you should be, at least somewhat) they say this team probably isn’t as bad as they’ve looked. The Canadiens are still driving possession in a positive manner, currently sitting seventh in team Corsi and still ninth overall even with score and venue adjusted when it comes to 5-on-5 play. The team has been even better when including all special teams play, moving up to the third best Corsi in the league. Montreal also sits dead last in the league in PDO with a .913 which is ridiculously low. PDO is a metric which combines a team’s shooting percentage with their save percentage to give an idea of how “lucky” they’ve been. An average ratio is 1.00 and the numbers usually regress to this number over the course of a season. History says the Canadiens will get more lucky bounces in the near future, even if your eyes are telling you this team is pretty terrible.

That being said, this line has opened well short and we’re likely to see it move up today so get your bet in early. We’ll play Montreal as a strong value play.

DETROIT RED WINGS @ BUFFALO SABRES

Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Jimmy Howard/Peter Mrazek (unknown)
Buffalo – Robin Lehner/Chad Johnson (unknown)

Injury Report
Detroit – DeKeyser (out)
Buffalo – Bogosian (out), Beaulieu (out), Josefson (out), Girgensons (doubtful)

The Detroit Red Wings lost their fourth straight game after Sunday’s 4-1 embarrassing effort versus Vancouver. The Wings just didn’t show up in the one as the feisty Canucks outworked them all night. It was a chance for the Wings to get back on track after playing three tough games last week and they should have been ready against a weaker opponent.

Blashill decided to skip Monday’s practice and instead held a team meeting where they discussed the lack of effort on Sunday and watched video clips of what went wrong.

The Buffalo Sabres erased a two goal third period deficit Saturday night then won in overtime to shock the Boston Bruins. The Sabres now return home where they are 0-3 on the season.

Housley shook things up once again in Monday’s practice making a change in the top six along with his powerplay units. Kyle Okposo responded well to his benching for most of Friday’s game with a strong effort on Saturday and will now play on the top line tonight with Eichel and Kane while Pominville will drop to the second line. Defenseman Victor Antipin has been back in the lineup the past two games after being a healthy scratch in the four previous. The Sabres were previously using four forwards but Antipin will now man the point on the top powerplay unit with Ristolainen.

This line opened at a pretty high number but has dropped significantly overnight and now sits about where I think it should, so it doesn’t look like we’ll be getting involved here.

LOS ANGELES KINGS @ OTTAWA SENATORS

Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Darcy Kuemper (confirmed)
Ottawa – Mike Condon (confirmed)

Injury Report
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Ryan (out), Z. Smith (out), Borowiecki (questionable)

The Los Angeles Kings are no longer undefeated in regulation after a 3-2 loss at Toronto last night. It was another strong effort from the Kings but the Leafs were just the better team in this one.

Tonight we’ll see a battle of the backups as Darcy Kuemper will start against Mike Condon. The Kings backup won his only start of the season thus far making 23 saves in a 3-2 win over the Islanders. Condon was sharp in his only start of the season, stopping 35 shots in a 6-1 win over Edmonton.

This is a tough spot for the Kings but the Senators will be shorthanded a couple of forwards after it was announced Bobby Ryan suffered a broken index finger in Saturday’s game against the Leafs. He’ll miss about a month of action while Zack Smith continues to be out with an upper-body injury. Smith has been skating and the Senators hope he could return for Friday’s game against the Devils. Defenseman Mark Borowiecki may be able to return tonight after returning to practice Monday. He wore a no-contact jersey but said he felt good and a decision will be made this morning on his availability.

We’ll see where this line opens this morning but I’m not expecting to see a huge edge.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS @ MINNESOTA WILD

Projected Goaltenders
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom/Anders Nilsson (unknown)
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (probable)

Injury Report
Vancouver – Edler (out), Stecher (out), Eriksson (out)
Minnesota – Niederreiter (out), Coyle (out), Parise (out), Granlund (likely)

The Vancouver Canucks are enjoying life on the road after Sunday’s 4-1 win in Detroit, their third win in four games. The road trip ends tonight with a tough spot in Minnesota and the Canucks will be down another body. Defenseman Troy Stecher was injured in Sunday’s game after a knee-on-knee hit that didn’t look good. The Canucks called up Patrick Wiercioch who will compete with Alex Biega for the sixth defenseman.

Thanks to a depleted forwards group the Minnesota Wild struggled through a tough road schedule to begin the season. The Wild sit at 2-2-2 after playing five of their first six on the road but will now open a season-long six game homestand. It should get off to a good start as one of their top scoring threats, Mikael Granlund, is expected to return to the ice. Granlund hasn’t played since aggravating a groin injury in the season opener and the Wild have been patient in making sure he’s back to full health before returning. After practicing on Monday Granlund says he’s ready to play and is hopeful to be cleared today.

Minnesota did get some bad news on Zach Parise who may have to undergo back surgery as early as today and could miss a couple of months.

The Wild have only won twice this season but have either been tied or held a lead in the third period in all six games so with a few more lucky bounces they could be looking at a healthy record. Considering all the injuries they’ve had to deal with, it’s not time to write off the Wild just yet.

There’s injuries on both sides in this one but this line is currently short by my numbers. A really tough spot for the Canucks so we’ll fade them again and play on Minnesota. [UPDATE: This line jumped from -175 to -194 as I was writing this morning which has erased the value. We’ll sit out for now and see if it drops back now]

CALGARY FLAMES @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS

Projected Goaltenders
Calgary – Mike Smith (confirmed)
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (confirmed)

Injury Report
Calgary – Jagr (out)
Nashville – Ellis (out), Bonino (out)

The Calgary Flames dropped a pair of home games to end last week to even their record at 4-4-0 and will now start a back-to-back tonight. Mike Smith will get the start with Eddie Lack going tomorrow in St. Louis.

The big news for Calgary is an injury and a call-up. Jaromir Jagr suffered what was believed to be a groin injury and has been placed on the IR. Michael Ferland took his spot again on the top line in Monday’s practice. Mark Jankowski was called up and will center the third line which moves Sam Bennett to the wing with Curtis Lazar on the other side in what has been dubbed “The Project Line”. Flames fans have been wanting Jankowski in the lineup for a while now and after destroying the AHL this season finally gets his chance. All three members are first rounders who have struggled to find their foothold but it should be an exciting line together with a ton of speed.

The Nashville Predators stop back home for a quick single game where they are 3-0 after a 4-2 matinee loss in New York on Saturday. The Predators have had a tendency to start slow this season and have only one first period goal in eight games. Pekka Rinne will be back in net after Juuse Saros took the loss last game.

Nashville is a scary good home team but there’s value on the Flames tonight so we’ll lock in Calgary as the play here.

DALLAS STARS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE

Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Colorado – Semyon Varlamov (confirmed)

Injury Report
Dallas – no significant injuries
Colorado – Jost (out), Compher (out), Nemeth (out)

The Dallas Stars have won four straight games thanks to some solid play on home ice. The Stars have won four of five at the American Airlines Arena but has looked vulnerable on the road with losses at St. Louis and Nashville and a tight one goal victory at Arizona. They’ll hope to correct their play tonight as they begin a five game trip.

The Colorado Avalanche will seek some redemption after losing in Dallas ten days ago which started their current three game losing streak. That game was a tough spot for the Avs on the second half of a back-to-back and they’ll hope for a better outcome tonight with a rested group who have been off since last Thursday.

The roster will look a bit different tonight as rookies Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher have suffered injuries and been placed on the IR. Jost has a lower body injury and will miss 2-3 weeks while Compher broke his thumb blocking a shot and will miss about three weeks. Gabriel Bourque and A.J. Greer were recalled with Greer likely being the player to get into the lineup.

My numbers are high on the Stars but I think it’s a little too high in this spot tonight. I think the Avalanche have a good shot tonight and I’m choosing not to play Dallas, despite the perceived value. It’s a call which may not work out but I’m okay with it either way. If I have hesitations over a number I would rather pass on the game than force something.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS

Projected Goaltenders
Chicago – Corey Crawford (confirmed)
Vegas – Oscar Dansk (confirmed)

Injury Report
Chicago – Hossa (out)
Vegas – Haula (doubtful), Marchessault (probable)

Chicago ended a two game losing streak with a 4-2 win in Arizona on Saturday and then flew to Vegas where they’ve spent the past two days relaxing. I’ve read some reaction from fans being concerned about the Hawks perhaps enjoying themselves a little too much in the sinful city but I don’t think there’s any need to worry about this spot for the Hawks. Years ago when Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane were younger, when the Hawks were winning championships, they used to actually go to Vegas frequently for team bonding during down time. It was an annual ritual and it’s no secret they used to sweat alcohol at practice in the next city they visited. That was then and this is now a veteran Hawks team with a veteran core and leaders. Kane and Toews actually addressed this concern over the past couple days and said there wouldn’t be an issue with being here for a couple of days and it’s not like when they were younger. That remains to be seen but I’d be willing to bet it won’t be as big an issue as some are expecting.

The big story for Vegas tonight is goaltender Oscar Dansk will make his first ever NHL start. Dansk entered Saturday’s game late in the third period after a leg injury to Malcolm Subban and promptly gave up the tying goal on the first shot he faced. Welcome to the NHL. He ended up holding it together pretty well though and made enough saves until the Golden Knights won the game in overtime.

It could be a tough baptism by fire tonight for Dansk as the Knights continue to get outshot and out-chanced night after night despite winning on the scoreboard. Malcolm Subban was surprisingly good in his three games but you have to wonder if Vegas’ hot start is about to come to a crashing halt with the offensively-efficient Blackhawks in town.

Jonathan Marchessault is expected to return to the lineup tonight which means McPhee will need to make a roster move. Does that mean Vadim Shipachyov will return to the minors? Possibly. If not, someone else will have to be placed on waivers and I’m not sure Vegas is interested in doing that. Defenseman Griffin Reinhart would be the most likely candidate in that case.

This line opened -160 and took sharp action moving up to -186 overnight but has been bet back down to the current number of -163 this morning. I agree with the initial move on the Hawks and I was looking to play Chicago tonight but there’s no value in the current number. We’ll keep an eye on this one to see if Vegas attracts more money but I think this has blowout written all over it in favor for the road side.