NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Home side won eight of last nine Philly-Chicago games; under is 4-1-2 in last seven series games. Flyers lost three of last four visits to the Windy City. Philly lost three of last four games, both overall and on road. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Blackhawks lost five of their last six games, three of their last four at home; their last three home games stayed under.
Penguins won six of last seven games with Edmonton; under is 4-1 in last five series games. Pittsburgh won its last three visits to Edmonton. Penguins were outscored 16-3 in losing their last three road games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Edmonton lost seven of its last nine games, including four of last five home games, all of which went over the total.
Devils won their last five games with Vancouver; under is 5-2-3 in last ten series games. Devils won 3-2/2-1 in their last two games in this building. New Jersey won eight of last ten games; they’re 4-0 on road, scoring 20 goals- over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Canucks won four of last five games; they’re 2-4 at home. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
Ducks won last two games with Toronto, after losing 7 of previous 8 meetings; Maple Leafs are 3-2 in last five games in the Pond (under 3-2). Toronto were outscored 13-7 in losing their last three games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Anaheim won four of its last five games; they split their six home games. Four of Ducks’ last five games went over the total.
Home side won nine of last ten Nashville-San Jose games; Predators lost five of their last six games in this building. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Nashville lost three of last four games; they’re 2-4 on the road. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Sharks won five of last seven games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. San Jose won three of last four at home.
Armadillosports.com
NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com
MORNING LINE REPORT
It’s the beginning of a new month as we flip the page to November and we can only hope it’s as good to us as the opening month of the NHL season. We’ve banked nearly +13 units to this point with an ROI over 14%. There hasn’t been many huge nights but it’s been a consistent steady climb and that’s better for us overall anyway. Wild inconsistent swings can be troublesome so hopefully we manage to keep on an even keel here and keep the good times rolling.
I originally wrote today’s intro during the second intermission of the Vegas-New York game last night and as soon as I finished I was certain the Rangers would come back to win which would make the entire thing obsolete. And that’s exactly what happened as New York ran over the Knights in the third with four unanswered goals to temporarily save Alain Vigneault’s job.
There’s some Halloween candy sitting next to me saying it’s okay to eat them for breakfast so let’s get right into today’s games and onto that sugar high.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Projected Goaltenders
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott/Michal Neuvirth (unknown)
Chicago – Corey Crawford (likely)
Injury Report
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out), Gostisbehere (out), Patrick (out)
Chicago – Hossa (out), Forsling (out)
The Philadelphia Flyers couldn’t follow up their big Saturday night win in Toronto as they looked completely flat for the first 40 minutes in a 4-3 loss to Arizona on Monday night. The Flyers managed just three shots in the opening period and seemed to take Arizona too lightly until waking up in the third and using a late rally to secure one point.
Philly will play a back-to-back starting tonight but I haven’t seen Hakstol name a starter yet so we’ll have to see if it’s Elliott or Neuvirth. Shayne Gostisbehere and Nolan Patrick will both be out tonight and tomorrow as neither traveled with the team. Rookie Sam Morin was supposed to have been called up before last game but he was found to have an injury that will keep him out for a couple of weeks. Mark Alt was instead called up and played 17 minutes in Monday’s game. Will O’Neil was called up Tuesday and will serve as an extra defenceman. Four of the seven Flyers defensemen currently in the lineup are rookies. With Andy MacDonald still a few weeks away the Flyers will certainly be tested on the backend.
The Chicago Blackhawks have dropped five of their last six, including three in a row after Saturday’s 6-3 loss at Colorado and Joel Quenneville has had about enough. He blasted his team at the end of yesterday’s practice claiming the intensity and pace were lacking so he skated them extra hard until they were sucking on air. It was like an old-fashioned bag skate.
Quenneville will also make some lineup changes tonight for the third straight game. Brandon Saad will play with Patrick Kane now while Alex DeBrincat will jump up beside Jonathan Toews. Underrated defenseman Cody Franson will join the top pair with Duncan Keith with Gustav Forsling out with a head injury. These changes look good and I’m looking forward to seeing Saad with Kane.
I like Chicago to get this win tonight and was hoping to see some line value but it doesn’t appear like that will work out. It’s unlikely it will move down enough to give us a play here. I would probably look at the over 5.5 (-115) more than anything else.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ EDMONTON OILERS
Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray/Tristan Jarry (unknown)
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (likely)
Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Schultz (out), Hunwick (out)
Edmonton – Sekera (out)
The Pittsburgh Penguins have dropped the first two games on their five game road trip after Sunday’s 7-1 shellacking at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets. It was the Penguins fourth back-to-back already this season and they are now a disastrous 0-4-0 while being outscored 29-4 in that situation.
They’ll open another back-to-back here tonight before traveling to Calgary tomorrow. When Pittsburgh isn’t playing the tail-end of a back-to-back they are 7-1-1 so maybe we shouldn’t exactly panic about this team yet, especially since their back-to-back situation might have a significant upgrade in net now with the call-up of Tristan Jarry on Monday – the guy who should have been here all along. Sullivan hasn’t tipped his hand as to who will start tonight so we’ll have to wait to see if it’s Murray or Jarry.
The Edmonton Oilers fell to 3-6-1 after a 5-2 loss to Washington on Saturday and the flip of the calendar to a new month isn’t likely to magically solve all of this team’s problems. They have scored the least amount of goals per game at just 2.2 and their special teams are 30th overall for both the powerplay and penalty kill. The team continues to generate a lot of shots but when they aren’t of high quality it’s not very effective. Their shooting percentage is just 5.8% so that should come up but even some positive regression isn’t likely enough to fix all their problems.
McLellan is still trying to find the right line combinations but when you lack quality depth there’s not a lot you can do. More changes are in store for tonight but Leon Draisaitl is still on the top line with Connor McDavid and that’s probably enough to know that the other lines are going to continue to lack depth. I’m still in the camp of believers that the Oilers would be better splitting their two stars apart but it seems to be an argument falling on deaf ears at this point. McLellan is splitting the duo up on the powerplays tonight, however, which actually makes even less sense. The one place they should stack lines is on the top powerplay unit.
Pittsburgh is currently lined at -101 which is at the bottom of my line range so there’s no play here right now. I like the Pens to get it done tonight so we’ll see if there’s some Oilers money this morning to drive the number up. If the Pens hit +107 or better then I’ll be firing. Now that’s with Murray in net. If Jarry starts the number will definitely jump on the Oilers and I’ll update my range on Twitter. Either way, I’ll be looking at Pittsburgh tonight.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Projected Goaltenders
New Jersey – Cory Schneider (confirmed)
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom/Anders Nilsson (unknown)
Injury Report
New Jersey – Zajac (out), Palmieri (out), Johansson (probable), Greene (probable), Boyle (probable)
Vancouver – Edler (out), Stecher (out), Eriksson (out), Boeser (questionable)
The New Jersey Devils will hit the road for three games through Western Canada this week after a successful homestand including Saturday’s 4-3 win over Arizona.
Outside of the Devils matching their best-ever ten game start to a season at 8-2-0, the exciting news tonight is the probable return of Brian Boyle who is expected to make his season debut. Boyle was diagnosed with Chronic Myeloid Leukemia at the start of training camp but was medically cleared to return to practice on October 22 and centered the fourth line on Tuesday. Hynes is expected to make an announcement later this afternoon on his official status. The Devils are rolling pretty well right now but this should be another boost for the young club.
Marcus Johansson missed Saturday’s game but was back at practice this week and is good to go for tonight. Andy Greene will also return to the lineup after welcoming a new son to the world over the weekend and Cory Schneider will start in net.
Another club rolling along right now is the Vancouver Canucks who have points in five straight games despite a 2-1 overtime loss to Dallas on Monday night in a game where they really controlled. Ben Bishop stole the show with 38 saves preventing the Canucks from winning their fifth straight game.
The Canucks had several high quality chances but couldn’t convert without their leading scorer Brock Boeser who missed the game due to a foot contusion.
Boeser practiced on Tuesday and was able to get through a full outing. He said the foot felt good and was hopeful to play tonight but will depend on how today’s skate goes.
This line opened a touch high but has come down slightly overnight and sits just above the high end of my range which I’m fine with. I don’t have much interest in picking a side here with two hot teams. It sounds like Boeser will be back but if he’s not I would look at the Under here as the strongest play.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ ANAHEIM DUCKS
Projected Goaltenders
Toronto – Frederik Andersen/Curtis McElhinney (unknown)
Anaheim – John Gibson (likely)
Injury Report
Toronto – no significant injuries
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Getzlaf (out), Fowler (out), Vatanen (probable), Bieksa (questionable), Ritchie (questionable)
The Toronto Maple Leafs opened their dreaded California tour with a 3-2 defeat in San Jose on Monday for their third consecutive loss. The Leafs gave up a season-high 39 shots on goal while recording a season-low 18 of their own.
Toronto has gone from planning parade routes to full out panic mode in a matter of weeks. Tyler Bozak saw his ice-time cut down in Monday’s loss and found himself demoted to the fourth line in Tuesday’s practice. He’s been on the ice for more 5-on-5 goals against than any other Leafs player.
In fact, Bozak wasn’t the only one looking out of place. Mike Babcock shook up all three of his bottom lines, keeping only the top line of Matthews, Hyman and Nylander together – and righty so as those three have completely dominated opponents all season.
Dominic Moore will be the odd man out of the lineup with Josh Leivo re-entering and moved up to the second line with Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov. Veteran Patrick Marleau is being moved to center and will start on the third line between Connor Brown and JvR. An interesting fourth line will now consist of Bozak, Mitch Marner and Matt Martin.
The defense will also get a new look with Connor Carrick being inserted back into the lineup after sitting for four games and will partner with Jake Gardiner on the second pair. Gardiner’s usual partner, Nikita Zaitsev, will slide down to the third pair with rookie Andreas Borgman. The top pair will remain the same as Morgan Rielly has thrived beside Ron Hainsey. That means Roman Polak is out of the lineup after playing in four straight games – three of which the Leafs lost.
Let’s have a big round of applause for Babcock who might actually finally get back on track here. Getting Leivo into the lineup is great news and moving him up to the second line is even better and finally removing Polak from the lineup might be the greatest news of all. I’m all for these moves and expect a stronger effort from the Leafs tonight.
This is the front-end of a back-to-back with a trip to Los Angeles tomorrow so we’ll have to wait and see if it’s Andersen or McElhinney tonight.
The Anaheim Ducks continue to somehow pile up wins despite a full injury list that just won’t go away. The Ducks return home to the Honda Center after winning three of four on their road trip and just when it appeared they were getting healthy, more bad news struck. Quite literally, as a deflected puck struck Ryan Getzlaf in the face early in Sunday’s 4-3 win at Carolina and has caused enough swelling where he’s been ruled out for the next three games and will be re-evaluated on Monday. Nick Ritchie was also hit with a puck in Monday’s workout and his status for tonight is unclear.
Kevin Bieksa returned to practice on Monday and is hopeful to get into one of this week’s games. Sami Vatanen missed Sunday’s game but should be back in the lineup tonight. After just returning on Saturday they didn’t want him to play in back-to-back games right away.
John Gibson is expected to start in net as long as he’s recovered from a tense incident in Monday’s practice. Gibson was hit where the sun doesn’t shine but Carlyle says he’s okay.
This is a tough spot for Anaheim returning home after an extended trip out East and with the changes the Leafs are making and the Ducks injuries I’m willing to bend my rules here if need be. There’s currently no line available but I’ll be tweeting out the Leafs as a play as soon as we have a widely available number (the Leafs would have to open at a pretty ridiculously high number of like -140 or something for me to pass here).
NASHVILLE PREDATORS @ SAN JOSE SHARKS
Projected Goaltenders
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (probable)
San Jose – Martin Jones (likely)
Injury Report
Nashville – Ellis (out), Bonino (out)
San Jose – Martin (out)
The Nashville Predators have dropped three of their last four games after Saturday’s 6-2 home loss to the Islanders and now hit the road for a four game trip beginning in California. The Predators continue struggling to score goals as they’re now scored two or less goals in five straight games.
The San Jose Sharks are quietly climbing up the Pacific standings after Monday’s 3-2 win over Toronto that kicked off a five game homestand. The Sharks defense is playing at a high level right now allowing two or less goals in six of the last seven games while the team grinds out wins.
Martin Jones has been red-hot after a slow start, giving up just nine goals over his last six games now. Pekka Rinne will be back in net for the Preds and he’s also been hot with a 5-1-2 record and a 1.86 goals-against average and .940 save percentage.
There’s a little value currently on San Jose at -129 on BetOnline so we’re going to jump on the Sharks here. I see lines ranging from -125 to -135 across other books so it could be a borderline play. Technically I have value in this number up to -138 but with my 8 cents rule I would generally not play anything above -131. Another play I really like in this game is the Under 5.5 which is an inflated number. This game should be lined at 5 so getting that half goal without having to pay for it is a steal. Totals are still inflated across the board right now but we’re starting to see a shift to more defensive hockey with some teams so there’s going to be a lot of value on playing Under some 5.5s for the time being.